Draft Lottery idea?

[Monster]

One of the problems with the NBA is there are too many games the way the league is set up right now. The Wolves season was over 30 games ago at least. What would make this league so much better in these cases is if there was a true minor league system and you could do a September call ups type thing at some point. For the Wolves this season with all these injuries they would be bringing up guy that already know the system and all that. Would teams sit vets? Yes and I think people would be more ok with that if you truly had some youth development league you could draw from instead of random 10 day contract guys.

The problem with the NBA is that it's such a star league and drafting at the top is more important than in any of the other team sports. The starting QBs in the Super Bowl were taken after the 2nd round. The NBA you rarely have a true star player ever come out of the 2nd round or below. It's just there is a lot of incentive and therefor teams may tank and because of that obvious incentive fans pundits etc are going to make assumptions.

One problem I have with the tanking narrative is typically the teams in a position to tank are already often laughably bad anyway. I'm not saying tanking isn't possible or that it doesn't happen just that those bottom few teams suck pretty bad to begin with so...

There are some creative ideas in this thread and maybe something could be done to make the system a little better but to me the real key is to expand the league by having a true minor league system so that makes every pick more valuable Because it allows teams to develop more players. Look at the value you can get with a 2nd round euro stash. There would be some worthwhile guys that would come out of a true minor league system. It needs to happen and Glen and Flip should have a D-league team right now no matter how much it costs if they care about winning. I think it's clear they want one but there should be more sense of urgency.

[The Rage Monster [enjin:8010341]]

This probably won't be a popular idea based on how bad we've been but I think it would be interesting if they tried to work relegation into the league. Combine the conferences and just let the last 3-5 playoff spots be relegated and top 3-5 move up. This would add more competition for those lower teams who want to move up and make the playoffs. Teams in the middle of the current lottery would then be fighting to move up to be playoff eligible instead of moving down for more ping pong balls. There still could be some tanking from the bottom few teams so there could be a lottery for the bottom 3-5 teams only.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

This probably won't be a popular idea based on how bad we've been but I think it would be interesting if they tried to work relegation into the league. Combine the conferences and just let the last 3-5 playoff spots be relegated and top 3-5 move up. This would add more competition for those lower teams who want to move up and make the playoffs. Teams in the middle of the current lottery would then be fighting to move up to be playoff eligible instead of moving down for more ping pong balls. There still could be some tanking from the bottom few teams so there could be a lottery for the bottom 3-5 teams only.

I don't understand how relegation would work at all in the NBA. It is not a playoff system. It's designed to place teams in the various professional leagues they have in soccer so the best performing teams make it into the best leagues. Within the leagues themselves though, everyone has the same shot to make the playoffs for that league. I don't understand how your system would make a good impact on the sport. You either have too many teams to move up into the playoff tier and someone gets left out because of a bad system or you have too little teams able to take the bottom 3-5 spots anyway making the rule not matter. How is it any better than what we have now where if you play well, you make the playoffs without any external factors making that choice for you?


I think the only way to solve tanking at the bottom is to fully randomize the results, but then you could have a bad team stay bad for years because of bad luck. You limit that by completely randomizing the lottery in different pools of bad teams so nobody can jump too high or too low, but also it takes away the reason to pile on losses at the end of the year for more lottery balls because it wouldn't make a difference in your chances.

[Crazysauce]

None of these are fixes for tanking which is the whole entire purpose of the lottery system. The best way I still think would be a wheel lottery, one with no relation to standings. Free agency and cap management is key to success these days. And its not like you pick 30 and then 29 then 28 and so forth. You picks would be on a wheel and every year it would go to a different pick. Maybe you have 4 this year 22 the next and 14 the year after. You dont have to worry about commissioner fixing draft, you know your pick every year so this whole protection thing is eliminated. And everyone gets a top pick every 30 years.

This would really open up everything. You could have top picks getting dealt more often if a contending team is trying to nab a great player off a smaller market team they could deal a higher pick since they would get one every few years. We wouldnt have to worry about teams sitting star players and be hoping our teams lose. The teams will play hard til the end of the season and the close races would be much better at the end of the season.

Really the wheel draft I truly think is a great idea.

[The Rage Monster [enjin:8010341]]

This probably won't be a popular idea based on how bad we've been but I think it would be interesting if they tried to work relegation into the league. Combine the conferences and just let the last 3-5 playoff spots be relegated and top 3-5 move up. This would add more competition for those lower teams who want to move up and make the playoffs. Teams in the middle of the current lottery would then be fighting to move up to be playoff eligible instead of moving down for more ping pong balls. There still could be some tanking from the bottom few teams so there could be a lottery for the bottom 3-5 teams only.

I don't understand how relegation would work at all in the NBA. It is not a playoff system. It's designed to place teams in the various professional leagues they have in soccer so the best performing teams make it into the best leagues. Within the leagues themselves though, everyone has the same shot to make the playoffs for that league. I don't understand how your system would make a good impact on the sport. You either have too many teams to move up into the playoff tier and someone gets left out because of a bad system or you have too little teams able to take the bottom 3-5 spots anyway making the rule not matter. How is it any better than what we have now where if you play well, you make the playoffs without any external factors making that choice for you?


I think the only way to solve tanking at the bottom is to fully randomize the results, but then you could have a bad team stay bad for years because of bad luck. You limit that by completely randomizing the lottery in different pools of bad teams so nobody can jump too high or too low, but also it takes away the reason to pile on losses at the end of the year for more lottery balls because it wouldn't make a difference in your chances.

To be honest I haven't thought through every detail of this hypothetical structure. I would have the playoff teams play the majority of their games against other playoff teams and the non playoff teams play non playoff teams. The general idea would be to have the bottom 3-5 playoff teams be relegated and the top 3-5 non playoff teams be promoted. That means the team slated to draft 10th would make the playoff tier so more teams would have incentives to win is extended. For example in the current system a team drafting 6th has no incentive to win, they have no shot of making the playoffs and winning hurts their draft odds. With a relegation like system they wouldn't be too far out of being able to move up to the playoff tier so their would an incentive to win.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

None of these are fixes for tanking which is the whole entire purpose of the lottery system. The best way I still think would be a wheel lottery, one with no relation to standings. Free agency and cap management is key to success these days. And its not like you pick 30 and then 29 then 28 and so forth. You picks would be on a wheel and every year it would go to a different pick. Maybe you have 4 this year 22 the next and 14 the year after. You dont have to worry about commissioner fixing draft, you know your pick every year so this whole protection thing is eliminated. And everyone gets a top pick every 30 years.

This would really open up everything. You could have top picks getting dealt more often if a contending team is trying to nab a great player off a smaller market team they could deal a higher pick since they would get one every few years. We wouldnt have to worry about teams sitting star players and be hoping our teams lose. The teams will play hard til the end of the season and the close races would be much better at the end of the season.

Really the wheel draft I truly think is a great idea.

The wheel system doesn't work. There is no way to collectively bargain a system that has to last for 30 years or someone gets screwed. There also isn't an even playing field in free agency so the draft is how small markets get to even the playing field with multiple high picks they can control for almost a decade if they pay up. If you take that away how are small markets supposed to compete on a regular basis? Teams also get screwed whenever a weak draft rolls around because their time at the top isn't as valuable. Teams will get screwed by that system and there's no way it will last for 30 years this screwing even more teams.

[Crazysauce]

Nobody will get screwed on a wheel draft. Every five years your team would get a top 6 pick. In those same five years you would get a pick 7-12 you would get a pick 13-18, then 19-24 and 25-30. So if in five years this so called plan doesnt work (which I believe it would), everyone has gotten one pick in each of those tiers so how you could say somebody got completely screwed doesnt make any sense.

[Crazysauce]

More then anything I hate teams tanking and not playing there players down the stretch and other teams making there run against teams trying to lose. Terrible product and terrible for the game. I have never heard of any type of system that would eliminate tanking with the exception of this. I dont want to see Mark Madsens shooting three pointers to make sure our team will lose.

The system you were discussing will cause a ton of tanking. In a year when teams are close for 4-8 record, conceivably all those teams, including the top three would want to tank to make sure they stay in the top tier, as would the guys in 9-13 and so forth. They may as well stick with the system now if they are going to do that. The system that is initially proposed would not determine the worst from the best teams accurately.

When I watch basketball I want to see every team playing to win. What you should be watching at the end of a season is teams battling to make the playoffs, but unfortunately most games start with one trying to win and another hoping for a loss. Its sad really.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Nobody will get screwed on a wheel draft. Every five years your team would get a top 6 pick. In those same five years you would get a pick 7-12 you would get a pick 13-18, then 19-24 and 25-30. So if in five years this so called plan doesnt work (which I believe it would), everyone has gotten one pick in each of those tiers so how you could say somebody got completely screwed doesnt make any sense.

You get screwed if your 2, 3, 4 draft years are 1, 2, or 3 player drafts. A missed pick in the wheel is a death sentence for a bad team because you have 1 shot at a top 6 pick in 5 whole years and if you whiff you're done. Everyone in the world knows that a top 6 pick just isn't good enough for a team to grab the star they would need from that draft thus they are put at a disadvantage from everyone else. Look at this year's draft. The team who burns their top 6 pick in the six slot gets screwed because this is their best pick for the next 5 years in a 4-5 player draft. It's an even system for everyone that doesn't become fully even for 30 years when everyone gets a top pick.


The wheel system damns the small markets to mediocrity unless they get lucky and their 1 top 6 pick every 5 years is a star, otherwise they have no shot to land a star in free agency. Good, big market teams don't need the help, but bad, small market teams need it desperately or you should just close their doors because you are taking away their best chance at improvement. OKC doesn't get Durant, Harden and Westbrook in this system and they never reach the level they have today and Durant is in a Lebron in Cleveland team where he leaves because his team can't get him the help he needs in a small market. SA doesn't get Duncan/Robinson and that is the combo that made them into a dynasty. It doesn't make sense to give big markets an additional advantage because they get a top 6 pick every 5 years to add to the top FA's they have an advantage in signing already. Is it worth losing the ability to compete for several small market teams just to stop 3-4 teams from tanking every year?

[TheGrey08]

I think the only way to solve tanking at the bottom is to fully randomize the results, but then you could have a bad team stay bad for years because of bad luck. You limit that by completely randomizing the lottery in different pools of bad teams so nobody can jump too high or too low, but also it takes away the reason to pile on losses at the end of the year for more lottery balls because it wouldn't make a difference in your chances.

That's why I think you still want to rank the pick chances for 1-5 and 6-10. Something like 30% for the worst team in each bracket and 10% for the best. (30, 25, 20, 15, 10).

To combat true tanking they should average 2 years worth of standings (at least for teams who had much better records the previous year) to even out those random extreme outliers tanking seasons.