Who do you pick at #4?

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Would be just our luck in a three man draft!

I chose Winslow ahead of Muiday because I think he's a better fit. We can't afford to have two PG's who can't shoot. A Wiggins / Winslow wing pairing gives us a couple of nice, young, two ways players to work with. Add Bazz and LeVine and we are looking good at the wing positions going forward.

Even I would be optimistic about that collection of wings...

Wiggins
Winslow
LaVine
Muhammad

The thing I like about it is that it's a fairly diverse group.

So you're fine stacking the wings and splitting up minutes there (only 24 MPG's average available per player on the wing), but God forbid we have 2 PG's needing minutes because Ricky just has to play all of them or why have him at his price point. That makes sense.

1. I don't think Muhammad is in the same tier as Wiggins. Or Winslow. And probably not even LaVine. I don't see Muhammad as a difference maker. He's fine as a scorer off the bench.

2. I'm still not totally sold on LaVine. But I do think his ultimate potential could be as a combo guard off the bench. If that's the case, I see plenty of minutes available for Winslow, Wiggins and LaVine. There's more leeway when you have 3 or even 4 guys to spread among 2 or even 3 positions. And it gives the Wolves 3 guys with some serious high-end potential. All three working out perfectly is unlikely... but if two do... good deal.

3. None of those guys JUST signed a $55M contract as the team's most expensive player. I don't see the value in jumping "all in" and then immediately getting out dripping wet to dip a toe in.

4. Can a guy like Mudiay play off the ball? What happens to his development if Rubio is healthy? Will the minutes be there? Otherwise, I've come around to LaVine getting Rubio's 12 or so bench minutes as a complete change of pace guy and encourage his future as a combo guy off the bench... and it would be a HUGE dichotomy from what Rubio provides which could energize a team in spurts.

We literally can't go into next season with the backup plan to a Rubio injury being playing Lavine significant minutes again out of position. That's the kind of strategy that has already sunk 2 seasons of ours in the past 4 years. I don't care how much he makes. There needs to be a better backup plan in case of injury than playing a guy out of position. Someone said this team was built on a house of cards this year where we weren't prepared for injuries. Rubio is the card that consistently causes the whole house to fall down when he is out. We need a better backup plan for a Rubio injury pure and simple. Mudiay is 1 option. He's not the only option, but I would rather have a young guy with elite potential take over for an injured Ricky than another vet like Mo Williams.

Ok. We have philosophical differences on this. And that's fine. But here's me trying to explain mine...

1. If Rubio is healthy... spending a super high draft pick on his backup is poor value and the team won't reach its ultimate promise. There are other positions of need where the team hasn't just devoted $55M and where the team is below average.

2. If Rubio is injured... as with any injury to any key player, it will affect the team. That doesn't mean you REBUILD the franchise by planning for injuries to your best players. That's an extremely cautious and even negative approach. So... great, the Wolves have two better than average PGs. But, there are still holes elsewhere that derail the team. If the team has soured that quickly on Rubio... they MUST trade him.

3. For the most part, people here so optimistic about the development of LaVine and Wiggins and Muhammad and others... but suddenly we should take the cautious low-end approach with Rubio?

4. I think a guy like Mo Williams is a fine backup for a PG who is about to start a $55M contract. I think playing LaVine there a bit as a backup is fine too for a team that will still lose 50 or more games. If Rubio is injured... see point #2.

5. The Wolves are the worst team in the NBA for a reason (it goes beyond the injuries). This is no time for settling. Drafting a backup just in case of a "worst-case" scenario with Rubio is a disservice in my opinion.

The only players who wouldn't immediately be backups on our team would be 4's and Towns/Okafor who aren't available in this scenario, so by your philosophy we have to take a 4 or we aren't rebuilding properly.

We have Martin, Bud and Hummel to back up any Lavine/Wiggins/Bazz injuries whereas you have Lavine backing up Ricky. That is a huge difference.

You keep saying we have holes. We have 2 holes. Backup PG and starting PF. Look at the roster difference below with and without injuries.

Ricky/Nothing
Martin/Lavine
Wiggins/Bazz
Nothing/KG
Pek/Dieng

Vs

Nothing/nothing
Nothing/Lavine
Wiggins/nothing
Nothing/nothing
Nothing/Dieng

That is a huge difference and most of the holes are clearly just injuries. We have injuries, not holes.

If we take Mudiay and Ricky stays healthy, you trade the worse player no harm, no foul and get an asset back who is a better fit. Taking any wing creates a bigger log jam than taking Mudiay.

I'm taking Mudiay in this scenario because he is BPA and he fills a need if worse comes to worse if we can't find a good deal to trade him.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I'd draft Mudiay at No. 4 if that's how it turned out. He's the best player on my board after Towns, Okafor and Russell. Also, he's got potential to be a top-tier PG relatively quick due to his physical profile (6'5, 200), athleticism and play-style (attack, attack, attack).

In addition to what some have already said, if Mudiay is the pick, I'm not looking to keep him on the bench. I try to trade Rubio on draft night in order to hop back in the top-eight to draft Cauley-Stein and hopefully a future protected 1st or some other kind of asset.

Going into 2015 like...

PG: Mudiay
SG: Martin / LaVine
SF: Wiggins / Muhammad
PF: Garnett / Bjelica
C: Cauley-Stein / Dieng

The players in bold would make-up one of the most athletic five man units in the entire NBA. Kinda fun to think about.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Sorry Kahns... I see a terrible team that lost 66 games.

Maybe that's our biggest philosophical difference?

I saw a 56-loss team prior to the season. I don't think the team is good. Not one player played at any level where an outsider would look at them and say "That guy is better than an average player."

I think everyone expects Wiggins to get there. But, it's unlikely he goes from what we saw to a star in one offseason. So, by all means go with Mudiay as the BPA and dump Rubio. But I just don't see the point in keeping both and thinking the team is maximizing value.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I'd draft Mudiay at No. 4 if that's how it turned out. He's the best player on my board after Towns, Okafor and Russell. Also, he's got potential to be a top-tier PG relatively quick due to his physical profile (6'5, 200), athleticism and play-style (attack, attack, attack).

In addition to what some have already said, if Mudiay is the pick, I'm not looking to keep him on the bench. I try to trade Rubio on draft night in order to hop back in the top-eight to draft Cauley-Stein and hopefully a future protected 1st or some other kind of asset.

Going into 2015 like...

PG: Mudiay
SG: Martin / LaVine
SF: Wiggins / Muhammad
PF: Garnett / Bjelica
C: Cauley-Stein / Dieng

The players in bold would make-up one of the most athletic five man units in the entire NBA. Kinda fun to think about.

I don't know if Rubio is enough on his own to even get back into the top 8.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Sorry Kahns... I see a terrible team that lost 66 games.

Maybe that's our biggest philosophical difference?

I saw a 56-loss team prior to the season. I don't think the team is good. Not one player played at any level where an outsider would look at them and say "That guy is better than an average player."

I think everyone expects Wiggins to get there. But, it's unlikely he goes from what we saw to a star in one offseason. So, by all means go with Mudiay as the BPA and dump Rubio. But I just don't see the point in keeping both and thinking the team is maximizing value.

I can't help you if all you can see is W-L with zero context as to how that came to be. To me that doesn't make any sense. We played something like almost 20 games with only 8 guys available to play. Just saying we're a 66 loss team when a little under a third of those losses came because we were too injured to even be able to field a full team for practice doesn't make sense to me.

[TheFuture]

If we are drafting #4 then I guess you are assuming the order has the Knicks, Lakers, and 76ers drafting ahead of us? In that scenario I see the 76ers taking mudiay. The other two taking the two big men. If you remember that 76ers article I'd say Russell does not fit what hinkie looks for in his players. He wants lanky, uber athletes with the most potentialgiving his franchise the Best chance to strike gold. Between Russell and Mudiay, mudiay is that guy in my opinion. You may say that they got rid of carter Williams because he can't shoot so theyd be looking for a Russell, but I think their pick is Mudiay for sure. In that scenario I take Russell. In your scenario I take Winslow.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Sorry Kahns... I see a terrible team that lost 66 games.

Maybe that's our biggest philosophical difference?

I saw a 56-loss team prior to the season. I don't think the team is good. Not one player played at any level where an outsider would look at them and say "That guy is better than an average player."

I think everyone expects Wiggins to get there. But, it's unlikely he goes from what we saw to a star in one offseason. So, by all means go with Mudiay as the BPA and dump Rubio. But I just don't see the point in keeping both and thinking the team is maximizing value.

I can't help you if all you can see is W-L with zero context as to how that came to be. To me that doesn't make any sense. We played something like almost 20 games with only 8 guys available to play. Just saying we're a 66 loss team when a little under a third of those losses came because we were too injured to even be able to field a full team for practice doesn't make sense to me.

There aren't too many times I'm accused of ignoring context. But, ok.

I thought they were bad before the season... to the tune of 56 losses. I took into account injuries being part of the mix since EVERY team deals with them. Houston had a ton of injuries... including its 2nd best player and maybe 3rd best player. OKC was hit hard. Indiana lost its best player... and played without its 2nd best player for a long spell. Every team would have more wins if not for injuries. Very few teams stay healthy all season.

I was wrong about 26 - 56. The Wolves were hit with even more injuries than anybody could expect, so they lost a few more games and became the worst team in the league. But the team was still bad. It would have still been a bad to mediocre team with holes all over the place, even if relatively healthy. The defense was terrible. The offense was mediocre and a bit antiquated.

I don't think the team is close to competing. I think 30 - 34 wins next season would be a legit improvement. Hopefully, a Bucks-like improvement is in play if all goes well and multiple guys get much better, but it's harder to pull that off in the West. I'm not counting on it.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Abe: "I don't know if Rubio is enough on his own to even get back into the top 8."

You could potentially be correct, but there are two factors in play.

1. How the lottery goes down. I see Sacramento and Indy as two realistic trade options for Rubio, depending on their draft slot. Another possibility would be Miami if Dragic makes it known he'd like to leave, or Pat Riley sees the Dragic experiment as a failed mesh, and they jump a couple spots in the draft order. I'm just speculating, but I see those three teams as teams that would be willing to make a "win-now" move like acquiring Rubio.

2. Rubio brings literally everything you want to the table in a point guard, except for scoring. He'll never be a decent scorer; might never be average in that regard. Who knows. If you look at the three teams I mentioned above as examples of potential suitors for Rubio, they all have scoring options that can be leaned on. SAC has Cousins, Gay, McLemore. IND has George, Hill, West (or Miles). MIA has Wade, Bosh, Deng, Whiteside. Rubio would be a great plug-in for each team to make the other pieces work.

His price tag could be a concern, but I'll use the "salary cap is increasing" argument for that one. Rubio being only 24 doesn't hurt either.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Abe: "I don't know if Rubio is enough on his own to even get back into the top 8."

You could potentially be correct, but there are two factors in play.

1. How the lottery goes down. I see Sacramento and Indy as two realistic trade options for Rubio, depending on their draft slot. Another possibility would be Miami if Dragic makes it known he'd like to leave, or Pat Riley sees the Dragic experiment as a failed mesh, and they jump a couple spots in the draft order. I'm just speculating, but I see those three teams as teams that would be willing to make a "win-now" move like acquiring Rubio.

2. Rubio brings literally everything you want to the table in a point guard, except for scoring. He'll never be a decent scorer; might never be average in that regard. Who knows. If you look at the three teams I mentioned above as examples of potential suitors for Rubio, they all have scoring options that can be leaned on. SAC has Cousins, Gay, McLemore. IND has George, Hill, West (or Miles). MIA has Wade, Bosh, Deng, Whiteside. Rubio would be a great plug-in for each team to make the other pieces work.

His price tag could be a concern, but I'll use the "salary cap is increasing" argument for that one. Rubio being only 24 doesn't hurt either.

We can disagree.

Considering about 1/2 of the NBA already features a PG better or comparable to Ricky... that cuts down his market. Then, you have a lot of teams that would run away from a PG who shoots at historically low levels even if he's great passing the ball and pretty damn good on defense. That shooting thing is HUGE.

And then you have his salary... and not just how much they're paying him. But how much of an impact it has on their other players.

The list narrows.


[note: and then you have to wonder if teams even think a guy coming off surgery is worth a top 8 pick in the draft straight up... ]

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Long, you kind of had your cake and ate it too in your explanation of the poll. The wolves have a more likely chance of getting a top three pick than picking fourth. If you are going to take each numbers percentage singularly, then you have to take the wolves chances against each team which means we would be most liklely to get the top pick.

While I like Winslow, I don't like him at #4, and I don't believe he fits any better than Mudiay on this team. I see it as a question of whether you want Zach playing PG or SG. Winslow is a 3 on this team, and maybe a small 4, but I don't see him guarding or driving on NBA SG's. Playing the 3 keeps Wiggins at the 2 and Zach playing more minutes as a PG, whereas Mudiay moves Wiggins to the 3 and opens up a spot for Zach at the 2.

I think Winslow is most likely to find a role similar to Draymond Green, but I am not ready to drop a top 4 pick for that ceiling. I think you take Mudiay with the expectation of moving him after the draft or developing him for a year or two and then moving him.

While a lot of people believe draft picks lose their value once they are used, that is only the case when the players underperform. Does anyone think the wolves couldn't get the top pick by offering up Wiggins?

SJM, you're correct that the Wolves have a better chance of getting one of the top 3 picks than they do of picking 4th, but my statement is still true...the single most likely outcome for them is that they pick 4th. They have a 36% chance of picking 4th, and only a 25% chance of picking 1st. That's the reason for this thread. After the lottery is held, we will know our actual draft position and be able to have a more focused discussion. But I'm not patient enough to wait for that!

Bleedspeed, to answer your question, here are the Wolves' chances at landing 1-4:

1- 25%
2 -21%
3- 18%
4- 36%