Who Do You Want Back Next Year?

[TheFuture]

I thought this was more of a hypothetical, who do we want back, not who has the most realistic chance of coming back. If that is the case, I can't see how anyone would pick Hummel or Budinger over Neal. Budinger is okay, but I'd rather take a flyer on another player over Hummel. He plays smart, but he's not that good and will not get better.

Neal and both 2nd rounders please.

Neal is a bit better than a fringe NBA player but that's probably because of his success with the Spurs. He seems like a guy that goes to a new team has a few nice weeks then shoots poorly till he gets moved to the next spot. If it wasn't for injuries Chase would be the better player easily (I am hoping he gets moved to another team one way or another btw). Neal will be lucky to get a multi year deal and if it is it will be for 2 years 4 million max. Depending on what guards are on the toster next year he could be a good cheap fit since I think he would go well playing with Rubio and Lavine in different ways. I just feel like Neal is a replaceable fools gold (or maybe Quartz lol) type guy but I do think it's possible he fits well here all things considered.

Budinger put up 10 games when we had no other options. I do not want to see his clumsy self on the court for another year. I don't even want to talk about watching him play defense. Neal shoots better and plays better defense, imo. Much better fit to come in for 15-20 mins a game then Bud is.

As for jeff adrien, he's 28 or so. Let's take a flyer on a younger guy who's not 6'7".

Rubio / Brown / 2nd round PG or FA (if FA is a good player, then Brown moves to 3rd PG)
Lavine / Martin / Neal
Wiggins / Shabazz / Budinger
Towns / KG / Bennett
Dieng / Pekovic / Payne

That is something i'd be okay with, as there is decent depth everywhere. If the Euro comes over, then i'd remove Budinger.

[Monster]

I haven't voted yet but I keep hearing people say let's sign a Turiaf type guy that stays healthy. That's basically Jeff Adrian. Yep he is a couple inches shorter and not as talented but he can give you something in his minutes and like Jim Peterson says he is hard to play against. I'm not saying he should be on the roster but the guy can play basketball and do stuff when he is out there. There is a reason he keeps showing up on NBA rosters and or is the last cut in TC.

The rub is that there are also reasons why he doesn't stick around for long. He's limited. Basically, he's kind of like a bigger Lo Brown. He's serviceable. And there's a place for that... if a team wants that instead of more promise.

Meh. Give me Gary Trent instead. Or Craig Smith. But I would maybe take him over Andrew Lang.

I agree with this take. I realize we all want a hard nosed defender to plug the middle. But why can't we find one of those in the upcoming draft? Jeff Adrien did just fine while he was here. But he's basically an older, limited, emergency stop gap player vs. someone who might get better and be part of the young core.

Well, let me try going the numbers route as opposed to the emotive "he's a hard-nosed tough guy" route (which I think we all agree is true). I'm determined to turn you and Abe around!

Jeff Adrien this year:
PER - 14.2
WS/48 - .089
Net On/Off per 100 possessions - +5 pts
Rebounds per 36 minutes - 13 (!)
Opponent team eFG% when on the floor - 49.6% (vs. 53.6% for the team on the season)

That's a solid 4th or 5th big on a good team.

And this isn't just Adrien catching a break from the gods of small sample size. Go look at last season's numbers as well with Milwaukee and Charlotte. It's more of the same.

I love value guys - low cost, smart players that stay in their lane and are willing to do the dirty work. He absolutely fits the bill and simply flies under the radar of most teams because he's short. The numbers suggest that you get a positive ROI from his roster spot and salary.

I'm going to add this here because it kind of piggyback the type of player Q described.

I was just about to say I wasn't voting for anyone and that I liked all the guys (want Chase to find a new team) but they were nothing to lose sleep over. Then I looked at Hummel's stats and his shooting percentages were better than I thought not great but decent and then I saw the article below. Give me Robbie and I won't mind it is Jeff Adrian is back but I do think we may be able to find someone that fits his role that's younger.

http://www.canishoopus.com/2015/4/14/8406935/robbie-hummel-is-the-nbas-best-12th-man

[Coolbreeze44]

Bud hasn't been bad lately, but like I said in another thread, someone has to score - we only have 8 guys. I'm sure his real value is somewhere in between what we've seen the last month, and what we saw earlier in the season. But I'm happy for him that he's gotten his act together.

[Monster]

I thought this was more of a hypothetical, who do we want back, not who has the most realistic chance of coming back. If that is the case, I can't see how anyone would pick Hummel or Budinger over Neal. Budinger is okay, but I'd rather take a flyer on another player over Hummel. He plays smart, but he's not that good and will not get better.

Neal and both 2nd rounders please.

Neal is a bit better than a fringe NBA player but that's probably because of his success with the Spurs. He seems like a guy that goes to a new team has a few nice weeks then shoots poorly till he gets moved to the next spot. If it wasn't for injuries Chase would be the better player easily (I am hoping he gets moved to another team one way or another btw). Neal will be lucky to get a multi year deal and if it is it will be for 2 years 4 million max. Depending on what guards are on the toster next year he could be a good cheap fit since I think he would go well playing with Rubio and Lavine in different ways. I just feel like Neal is a replaceable fools gold (or maybe Quartz lol) type guy but I do think it's possible he fits well here all things considered.

Budinger put up 10 games when we had no other options. I do not want to see his clumsy self on the court for another year. I don't even want to talk about watching him play defense. Neal shoots better and plays better defense, imo. Much better fit to come in for 15-20 mins a game then Bud is.

As for jeff adrien, he's 28 or so. Let's take a flyer on a younger guy who's not 6'7".

Rubio / Brown / 2nd round PG or FA (if FA is a good player, then Brown moves to 3rd PG)
Lavine / Martin / Neal
Wiggins / Shabazz / Budinger
Towns / KG / Bennett
Dieng / Pekovic / Payne

That is something i'd be okay with, as there is decent depth everywhere. If the Euro comes over, then i'd remove Budinger.

Look at Bud and Neal's career shooting percentages. There isn't much to get excited about they are pretty similar. I tend to value Bud a little higher because I get the sense there are a few teams out there that value him and that's why I hope he can move on so we can pay some other guy less money that hopefully is decent and has less injury concerns.

[AbeVigodaLive]

If we're comparing "recent" Budinger and Neal...

I like that Budinger can get his without sabotaging the entire offense. Neal has a bit too much of that "I'm taking this shot right now no matter what" to his game. Call it confidence. Even needed confidence? Sometimes he looked like a selfish player... just using the eyeball test... whatever that's worth.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Monster - That's a terrific article on Hummel. What an incredibly thorough breakdown by the author. It goes without saying that I whole-heartedly agree!

Gary Neal - It's hard to understand why we would bring him back as long as Bud and/or Martin are on the roster next season. A Lavine/Wiggins/Bazz/Budinger or Martin wing rotation seems adequate, albeit still defensively weak overall. Now if we somehow trade Budinger AND Martin, than we will definitely need some cheap veteran help. As long as we don't overpay, I could see signing him under that scenario.

Adrien - So some of you think we could just get a rookie to do what he does? I find that kind of funny after the disastrous seasons of Payne and Bennett, both of whom are still under contract with us next year! If anything, we could use a low-cost vet to help hold the paint down when these guys are either hurt, underperforming, or traded away.

[Monster]

One thing that hasn't been brought up with Neal is it looks like he has missed a decent chunk of games since playing in 80 games his first year in the league. I know he is a bench guy and might have gotten a healthy DNP once in a while but for a guy that's averaged over 20mpg every year of his career those kinds of guys usually play so that says to me he was injured most of those games. He is over 30 so that's not working in his favor in that regard. We need to sign guys with at least a track record of being healthy if at all possible.

[Carlos Danger]

Well, let me try going the numbers route as opposed to the emotive "he's a hard-nosed tough guy" route (which I think we all agree is true). I'm determined to turn you and Abe around!

Jeff Adrien this year:
PER - 14.2
WS/48 - .089
Net On/Off per 100 possessions - +5 pts
Rebounds per 36 minutes - 13 (!)
Opponent team eFG% when on the floor - 49.6% (vs. 53.6% for the team on the season)

That's a solid 4th or 5th big on a good team.

And this isn't just Adrien catching a break from the gods of small sample size. Go look at last season's numbers as well with Milwaukee and Charlotte. It's more of the same.

I love value guys - low cost, smart players that stay in their lane and are willing to do the dirty work. He absolutely fits the bill and simply flies under the radar of most teams because he's short. The numbers suggest that you get a positive ROI from his roster spot and salary.

Wait a minute. Aren't you the guy that has been ripping Gorgui Dieng all season?

Per: Advantage Dieng 17.3 to 14.2 Adrien
TS%: Advantage Dieng .573% to .494 Adrien
TRB% Advantage Adrien 20.5% to 15.9%.
Note: Adrien's career rate (larger sample) is 17.5% and Dieng is 17.0% - so much closer with more data
WS/48: Advantage Dieng .110 to .089 Adrien
Steal % Advantage Dieng 1.6% to 0.9 Adrien
Block % Advantage Dieng 4.5 to 3.3 Adrien
VORP Advantage Dieng 2.5 to 0.0 Adrien

So, how can you rip on Dieng so much and defend Jeff Adrien? Almost every advanced stat shows Dieng is a much better player than Adrien. Plus he's young with potential for some upside. Explain...

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Carlos, a few things on Dieng....

- I was a huge Gorgui Dieng fan and loved that pick last year, so I'd love nothing more than for Dieng to actually be as good as his box-score stats would suggest.

- Unfortunately, he's a complete sieve at the rim defensively. Go look at our opponent eFG% and Drtng when he's on the court. It's terrible. He gives up one of the highest FG% at the rim in the NBA. Justin Hamilton might be the only guy that is worse!

- Now go look at how the team performs defensively when Adrien is on the court. It's not even close.

- I actually advocated for a Gorgui/Adrien pairing because I think those two would make for a nice front court combo, just like I advocated for a Gorgui/Pek pairing. If Gorgs is paired with some muscle, his defensive shortcomings can be somewhat masked and his other skills can shine brighter. He needs someone that can clear out bodies down there.

- Gorgui is also more expensive than Adrien. And thanks to those fancy box score stats you pointed out, he'll probably be even more expensive on his second contract. Someone out there, may be even the Wolves, will have to pay a lot more for him than his current deal (which is already more expensive than Adrien). I'd contemplate trading him while he still might have some value.....

- Again, I'd love to see how Gorgui does over extended minutes when paired with a bulkier, stronger big. I think he'd do a lot better.

[Carlos Danger]

Carlos, a few things on Dieng....

- I was a huge Gorgui Dieng fan and loved that pick last year, so I'd love nothing more than for Dieng to actually be as good as his box-score stats would suggest.

- Unfortunately, he's a complete sieve at the rim defensively. Go look at our opponent eFG% and Drtng when he's on the court. It's terrible. He gives up one of the highest FG% at the rim in the NBA. Justin Hamilton might be the only guy that is worse!

- Now go look at how the team performs defensively when Adrien is on the court. It's not even close.

- I actually advocated for a Gorgui/Adrien pairing because I think those two would make for a nice front court combo, just like I advocated for a Gorgui/Pek pairing. If Gorgs is paired with some muscle, his defensive shortcomings can be somewhat masked and his other skills can shine brighter. He needs someone that can clear out bodies down there.

- Gorgui is also more expensive than Adrien. And thanks to those fancy box score stats you pointed out, he'll probably be even more expensive on his second contract. Someone out there, may be even the Wolves, will have to pay a lot more for him than his current deal (which is already more expensive than Adrien). I'd contemplate trading him while he still might have some value.....

- Again, I'd love to see how Gorgui does over extended minutes when paired with a bulkier, stronger big. I think he'd do a lot better.

Q - I'm having trouble finding some of the stats you quote. Can you provide a link to the Drtng you are looking at? I hate some of these sites as I can't seem to run reports like I want.

I did go to Basketball Reference and compared them head to head for their careers. Dieng has a better D-rating of 106 compared to Adrien at 108.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=dienggo01&p2=adrieje01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

Personally, I think Dieng is a lot better than you give him credit for. I'm not saying he's Wilt Chamberlain. But he's an effective player. I seem to remember Adelman liked him for his defense, so it's surprising that some are now pegging him as a bad defender. The reality is that there were so many broken parts of our defense this year - I'm not sure if all the individual stats reflect true ability. For instance, if Dieng were to come off his man to help a teammate that got beat - and then is scored on during that help, would that reflect negatively on Dieng in the stats you are quoting? Because I saw a lot of that this year.