What's behind the NBA's bias against international guards?

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ESPN Insider - Makes me think of Rubio, Pek, and Bjelica

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/13614789/nba-the-bias-international-guards

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International bigs outpacing guards

As I wrote last season, the percentage of NBA minutes played by players born and raised overseas remains on the rise. The 2014-15 season was the first in league history in which more than 20 percent of minutes were played by international players, meaning that on average, an NBA team had at least one such player on the court at any given time. Odds are that the player was a center. Check out the distribution of international minutes by position.

About 40 percent of all international minutes in 2014-15 were played by centers, and a similar percentage of international players saw action primarily at center. International players saw fewer minutes at both guard spots combined, accounting for about 26 percent of minutes by international players.

As All-Star appearances suggest, the scale is tilted even further toward the frontcourt in terms of star talent. There have been nine All-Star forwards and centers born abroad who did not attend college in the U.S., including MVP Dirk Nowitzki, the Gasol brothers (Pau and Marc) and Yao Ming.

So why are international big men still ahead of their perimeter counterparts? Let's run through a few theories.

Theory 1: Size trumps skill

It's not surprising that most NBA players from countries where basketball is not a widespread sport have been big men. The formula is simple: Pick out tall teenagers and give them the best coaching possible to try to make up for the head start American players have in learning the game. That's much of the theory behind the SEEDS Academy in Senegal as well as the process that uncovered Satnam Singh Bhamara and turned him into the NBA's first draft pick from India in June.

Because size is more important than skill for big men, given the limited pool of 7-footers from which to choose worldwide, it's easier for post players to pick up the game late than guards who don't have the same physical advantages. So it's no surprise that of the 28 players raised in Africa who have reached the NBA, 27 have been 6-foot-8 or taller.

Here's the funny thing, though -- the distribution of playing time last season was virtually the same for players born and raised in Europe as on other continents. Given the exceptional skill of European big men, especially in terms of free throw shooting -- an easy comparison to players who learn the game elsewhere -- it's hard to believe this is just a matter of the NBA having lower standards for 7-footers.

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Theory 2: Soccer

Of course, it's not as if basketball is the most popular sport in soccer-mad Europe. The two sports compete for athletes from similar but slightly different pools. In particular, past a certain point, height ceases to be an advantage in soccer and eventually becomes a detriment. The occasional Peter Crouch aside, few outfield players are taller than 6-foot-6. TransferMarkt.com shows 28 active players in first divisions this height or taller, 13 of them goalkeepers. The tallest of them, Belgian reserve keeper Kristof van Hout, stands 6-foot-10. So at some point, 7-footers who start out playing soccer, like Hakeem Olajuwon and Marcin Gortat, are essentially forced to basketball by their size.

Surely, a handful of players between 6-foot and 6-foot-4 would be basketball players in another world -- playmaking midfielders who could be point guards, wingers who could, well, play the wing, etc. Each World Cup, Americans like to fantasize about what the U.S. men's national team would look like if the best American athletes played soccer. For European basketball fans, the reverse might apply.

Ultimately, the loss of the best athletes to soccer probably contributes to the fact that the European game is more skill-based than dependent on athleticism. That's a factor in the last reasonable explanation.

Theory 3: Guards have a tougher time transitioning to the NBA

While each of the first two theories got some support when I posted this question to a handful of team employees, the most popular explanation had more to do with the difficulty for international guards making the transition to the NBA -- in large part because they're less athletic and creative than their American peers.

"Guards, I feel, are more system players," said one person in a front office. "Catch-and-shoot guards that thrive in systems like Memphis and San Antonio."

"The guards in Europe are very skillful," Mike Taylor, a veteran D-League coach who is also the head coach of the Polish National Team, told ESPN.com's Mark Woods. "They read the game well. they're good in pick and roll. Maybe they're not as athletic. That would be the big adjustment to get to the next level with the NBA."

While nobody would knock Parker and Ginobili as unathletic system players, it's no surprise that the Spurs have gotten more mileage out of international guards -- a group that includes Patty Mills, who played college ball in the U.S., and former Spurs reserve Marco Belinelli -- than any other franchise. For everyone else, it's a lot more difficult projecting even the most successful guards in Europe to the NBA.

What's interesting, in reviewing the acquisition of international players over the last decade, is that proportionally there haven't been as many centers who have made the league after being drafted.

Instead, a much higher percentage of international centers have made their way to the NBA as veteran free agents after initially going undrafted, a group that includes contributors like Timofey Mozgov and Fabricio Oberto. By contrast, NBA teams have signed just five guards as veteran free agents, despite a larger pool since fewer guards have been drafted.

The track record of the handful of veteran guards who have come to the NBA from Europe as free agents is decidedly mixed. Players like Sarunas Jasikevicius (who played NCAA basketball at Maryland), Ibo Kutluay, Arvydas Macijauskas and more recently Goran Dragic have failed to translate their international success to the NBA game. As a result, teams have been hesitant to offer guards more than the minimum salary, while most free-agent centers have made at least a million dollars per year upon arrival in the NBA, and often more. (Mozgov signed a three-year deal for more than $10 million with the New York Knicks.)

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So the most successful late-blooming international guards, like Pablo Prigioni, generally haven't made the move to the NBA until well past their prime. At 35, Prigioni was the oldest rookie in modern NBA history when he joined the Knicks for the minimum salary before earning a bigger contract the following summer. Brazilian guard Marcelinho Huertas, who signed with the L.A. Lakers Wednesday at age 32, has followed a similar path.

The rising NBA salary cap might change this equation to some extent. With so much money to spend, teams might be willing to take more risks on bringing free agents over from Europe, where salaries are unlikely to see a corresponding increase. The philosophy on guard play in Europe may also evolve more in line with American style.

"The prototypical European guard is someone who runs the offense, gets everyone set up. But that's been changing," said Taylor. "European point guards and now being asked to score. Ten years ago that wasn't the case. Because you see so much pick-and-roll offense being played around the world, even in Europe. You have to be dangerous coming off a screen. And coaches want someone who can keep a defense honest by being capable of getting a 3-point shot."

Still, veteran guards like Huertas and Prigioni are solid role players rather than stars. Perhaps a new generation of players -- such as 2015 lottery pick Mario Hezonja of the Orlando Magic and possible 2016 lottery pick Furkan Korkmaz -- can join them. But for now, Parker and Ginobili stand alone as international star guards.

[Monster]

Interesting read thanks for posting Bleed.

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It gives me more hope for Bjelica. I think he is just to big and skilled not to be a good player.