Ricky Rubio and Rajon Rondo are doomed by their poor shooting

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ESPN Insider Article

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/13608321/nba-future-holds-poor-shooting-pgs-ricky-rubio-rajon-rondo

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It's been written that the definition of a pass-first point guard is simply a point guard who can't shoot. More and more it seems like these "pure playmakers" are falling out of fashion in the NBA.

Just last season, one of the top assist men of the last decade was dealt when Rajon Rondo went from Boston to Dallas. As we know now, that didn't end well. There were several reasons for that, but the most important on-court factor was that after acquiring Rondo, the Mavericks' offense, which was on a record-setting pace for efficiency, took a precipitous drop. Then after the season, the free-agent Rondo took what amounts to a one-year, make-good contract with a perennial lottery club in Sacramento.

Just last week, Minnesota's Ricky Rubio became the subject of some trade scuttlebutt.

While Rubio doesn't have a history of the kind of personality clashes that have plagued Rondo recently, he has a similar on-court profile: He's a skilled passer who dominates the ball yet doesn't shoot well on a consistent basis.

Whether or there is any smoke to the Rubio whispers, it does make you wonder if there is still a place in the league for players of that type. Rondo and Rubio, when healthy and playing at their best, both are multi-skilled players with positive attributes in a number of categories. Both can rebound at well above-average rates for their position. Both are solid defenders and particularly adept in playing the passing lanes. And both churn out assist opportunities at elite levels. But does wayward shooting negate these qualities in today's NBA?

Given the recent entry of similar players into the league in recent years like Michael Carter-Williams and Elfrid Payton, it's worth considering if such players still fit.

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What is the problem?

As the league has evolved towards an emphasis on floor-spacing and pick-and-roll play, point guards play a larger role than ever concerning offensive efficiency. Thanks to SportVu tracking data, we can see this quantified: Point guards dominate the leaderboards in total touches and time of possession. Whether the degree of this domination is a new trend, we don't really know, since we only have the data for the past two years. But what we do know is that point guards are producing more value, by WARP, than other positions.

For teams such as Houston and Cleveland, which don't rely on a traditional point guard to orchestrate the offense, these issues don't matter. That doesn't help Sacramento, Minnesota, Milwaukee or Orlando, who need to figure out how to rev up their offensive efficiency while featuring a primary ballhandler who doesn't shoot well.

Last season, Rubio ranked in the 74th percentile of all players in single-season offensive RPM, down from the 94th percentile the season before, when he played all 82 games. Rubio's RPM was a sterling plus-2.64 in 2013-14, when Minnesota's team offensive rating was 1.3 percent better than league average. His overall shooting percentages weren't much different except in one respect: He shot an average percentage on above-the-break 3s, and that was just enough to make teams pay for going under ballscreens.

For all he does well, Rubio just can't find a consistent peg in the shooting realm. He's not just an inconsistent jump shooter -- he's annually one of the worst finishers in the league, ranking in the 6th percentile at worst in the restricted area for three straight seasons, per nba.com/stats. Last season, he shot 31.7 percent at the rim. During the 3-point era, there have been 420 instances in which a qualifying player has recorded six-plus assists per game with an effective field-goal percentage under break-even. Rubio owns the two worst league-adjusted rates and three of the bottom five.

Meanwhile, Rondo's single-season RPM has been negative for three straight seasons and last season his multi-year RPM cratered to minus-3.55. The first of those years came before his knee injury, when he led the NBA in assists per game and posted his best true shooting percentage of the past half-decade. Yet even at peak productivity, Rondo was not having a positive impact on his teams' offenses.

While teams can overcome below-average shooting from their point guards, it's a matter of just how much poor shooting can be absorbed. The 270 3-point era players with six-plus assists per game and adjusted shooting rates at least two percent below league standards team played on teams whose corresponding offensive rating was 0.8 percent of below league average. League average, we remind you, is the dividing line between winning and losing.

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So what can teams do?

Last season's trade that sent reigning Rookie of the Year Carter-Williams from Philadelphia to Milwaukee was evidence that this problem of wedging in a poor-shooting point guard is one some teams simply don't want to deal with. However, even in recent seasons, Rondo and Rubio have both been a part of some lineups that have performed well.

For Rondo, according to basketball-reference.com, there have been three lineups in which he's played at least 100 minutes while contributing to an offensive rating better than league average. Two of those came in Boston and one in Dallas. All of three featured a stretch big man and pick-and-pop partner: Kelly Oynyk in Boston and Dirk Nowitzki in Dallas. All featured corner-shooting small forwards who can run the floor -- Jeff Green and Richard Jefferson. Both featured undersized backcourt partners (Avery Bradley and Monta Ellis) that might have contributed to above-average pace factors.

In Sacramento, that's a combination that is somewhat doable. DeMarcus Cousins isn't a stretch player by any means, but he has become a decent midrange pick-and-pop option in addition to his other skills. Rudy Gay isn't a good corner shooter but he runs the floor and is decent above the break on 3s. And Darren Collison doesn't defend as well as Bradley or Ellis, but on offense he can be a similar fit in some lineups. And we know that under George Karl, the Kings will play fast. More than anything, the Kings, in general, lack passing, and if Rondo is going to regain his standing around the league, Sacramento might represent his best possible chance to do so.

Rubio no longer has Kevin Love to team with, but needs to stay on the court first and foremost. Doing so might help him recover some of his 3-point shooting, though at this point, you wonder if he's ever going to become consistent from other zones. He's a good isolation player, but the developing Timberwolves aren't building around him any longer.

The foundation in Minnesota is Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, and younger point guards such as Zach LaVine and Tyus Jones lurk on the depth chart. It will be interesting to see what becomes of the likes of Rubio, Rondo, Carter-Williams and Payton in the next couple of years. Given the way NBA offenses go about their business these days, can a team win with a "pass-first" point guard?

Or can an innovative team learn how to build on what these guys do well? If the answers to both these questions is no, it might be hard for this kind of player to find work in coming years.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I'm not a big fan of making sweeping generalizations based on the experience of one player. This reminds me of how Centers were suddenly made obsolete by Draymond Green's performance in the Finals.

[Lipoli390]

I agree with Q. Rubio's poor shooting has certainly kept him from becoming an elite PG, although I think his injuries have been a bigger factor in stifling his development as a player. And unless he improves his shooting, he'll continue to fall short of becoming more that a good PG. But a couple points in addition to Q's point about the limited value of sweeping extrapolations from the experience of one player:

1. Rubio is a MUCH better free throw shooter than Rondo. Ricky gets to the line more (3.8 attempts per game v 2.5) and hits a far higher percentage (80% v 60%). This is significant in two ways. First, it means he delivers more points from the line than Rondo and does it far more efficiently. Second, it suggests that Ricky can actually improve his perimeter shooting to a far greater extent than Rondo.

2. Ricky's shooting should prove to be only marginally important as Flip surrounds him with scorers/scorers like Wiggins, LaVine, Shabazz and ultimately Towns. In other words, Flip is building a team that doesn't require much shooting from the PG position and that benefits most from a great playmaker.

3. Ricky has a great team-first attitude in contrast to Rondo' toxic self-centered brooding personality.

Ricky generally outperforms the opposing PG in every category but shooting - including defense, steals, rebounds, and free throw shooting. If he stays healthy as he did two yeas ago when he played every game, that will be more than enough for him to have a huge net positive impact on this team. If his shooting efficiency improves as I think it will, that will be icing on the cake.

[bleedspeed]

I agree that Rondo is not a good comparison for Rubio. Honestly the only thing Rubio really does poorly is finishing at the rim. If he could hit near 45% at the rim, 80% at the line, and 35% from the 3 he will be near an All-Star PG in this league.

[Phenom]

If Rondo is doomed and has a ring, I'd be ecstatic with a doomed Rubio.

[Monster]

If Rondo is doomed and has a ring, I'd be ecstatic with a doomed Rubio.

Yeah teams have started lesser players than Rubio and Rondo and won championships. Lots of players have flaws.

Thanks for posting the article it does look interesting. I only skimmed it a bit. I will read the whole thing a little later.

Edit:

I read the article I think it makes some good points and fairly well thought out. It raises some interesting questions worth considering.

Another thought is MCW seems to have had some questions about his defense even though in theory he should be an excellent defender. I can't comment on Payton because I haven't seen him much but to me the flaws of the other guys MCW (health, defense some attitude issues?) Rondo (attitude and seeming diminishing production overall) and Rubio (health) go well beyond their lack of shooting. Take those issues away and I bet their would be plenty of teams willing to overlook their poor shooting.

[alexftbl8181 [enjin:6648741]]

I agree that Rondo is not a good comparison for Rubio. Honestly the only thing Rubio really does poorly is finishing at the rim. If he could hit near 45% at the rim, 80% at the line, and 35% from the 3 he will be near an All-Star PG in this league.

Well that's kinda like saying I could be a model if I wasn't 400 pounds. It's a pretty big elephant in the room.

My concern with Rubio has always been how he'll be in the playoffs. Just look at the finals and how teams can gameplan to exploit any weakness and take players completely out of the game. No doubt teams would go overboard in daring Rubio to shoot and beat them that way, and there's no way he can do that.

I don't think Rubio is our point guard in the playoff future