Rubio effect

[MikkeMan]

This is mainly for fun since sample size for games that Ricky has played this season is still so small but I calculated what has been Wolves offensive and defensive rating in those 6 games that he has played (I didn't count Orlando game since he played less than half of it before he was injured).

Wolves Ortg with Rubio has been 109.0
Wolves Ortg without Rubio has been 97.6

Wolves Drtg with Rubio has been 107.3
Wolves Drtg without Rubio has been 109.7

I also did calculate average Ortg and Drtg for the teams that Wolves have played with Rubio (Memphis, Detroit, Chicago, Brooklyn, Dallas and Miami) to get some idea whether above results would be skewed by weaker schedule. Those opponents average Ortg is 104 and Drtg is 103.2, which means that they are little above average in offense and about average in defense. (league average in Ortg without Wolves is 103 and Drtg is 102.6) So it seams that schedule has not been weaker in games that Ricky has played and thus it should not have effect for results.

To get better understanding how big effect Rubio has had Wolves offense, we can compare those numbers to other teams. Wolves with Rubio would be tied with Toronto as 4th best offense and Wolves without Rubio would be 2nd worst offense in whole NBA. In defense Rubio's effect is not that big but at least they would be better than Lakers and Knicks.:)

[bleedspeed]

2 words

Spanish Jesus

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Thanks Mikkeman. I would say that those results support the eye test too...this team is simply much better and watchable with Ricky at the point. Even if only for 20 minutes. Let's update this thread as the season progresses.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Good to have our leader back and running the show. I didn't get to watch, how did Whiteside only miss 1 shot and get 20 boards? With a healthy Pek and Dieng that should never happen.

[GymRat [enjin:6592663]]

Basically Dieng wasn't strong enough to hold him off all games, and he was getting pulled off to go for shot blocks, while Pek can't really compete with his 7'7" wingspan. Whiteside is having a coming out party. It's his birthday every day right now.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Thanks Rat. If he develops a post game, he'll be unbelievable. He's already got the 16 foot jumper down.

[GymRat [enjin:6592663]]

Yeah, and he's also not even a focal point of the offense. Everything is within the flow and relatively close to or in the paint. His shot chart last night was a pretty much just a big yellow dot on top of the basket.

Whiteside has the body type I wish Dieng had. Dieng is a good passer and actually has some pretty slick post moves and touch off the glass, but he's all gangly and wobbly on the move and doesn't possess the strength.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I actually find it a little scary that we're this much better with Rubio versus without Rubio. Here is what's scary:

1 - The rest of our roster is so dreadful and/or inexperienced that they are on pace to set an NBA historical record for worst opponent eFG% (of course, I blame Flip the Coach for this too) and franchise record for most losses.

2 - Even with a healthy Rubio last year and Kevin Love, we still only won 40 games.

Conclusion: We are wonderfully blessed to have Rubio on our team - and it appears that his impact is better reflected by On/Off numbers that the normal array of advanced stats like Win Shares, PER, etc. But damn, there is still a ton of work to do to obtain or develop the right guys around him.

[MikkeMan]

Just for fun since sample size is still quite small. (9 games) Also we need to remember that in reality this is not just Rubio effect since also Pek and KMart have been playing in all of those games that Rubio has played.

Anyway here are updated values after Memphis, Atlanta and Golden State games:

Wolves Ortg with Rubio has been 107.3
Wolves Ortg without Rubio has been 97.7

Wolves Drtg with Rubio has been 107.8
Wolves Drtg without Rubio has been 109.4

Those 9 Wolves opponents that they have played with Rubio have average Ortg 104.9 and average Drtg 101.8. Whole league without Wolves has average Ortg 103 and average Drtg is 102.6. So Wolves have had currently clearly tighter schedule with Rubio than without him, which makes above numbers even more impressive.

I try to compensate above numbers with the strength of schedule and got following numbers:

Wolves compensated Ortg with Rubio has been 108.1
Wolves compensated Drtg with Rubio has been 105.8

How Wolves would rank in whole league with those numbers? Their offense would be 5th best (just above Cleveland :) and their defense 25th (tied with New Orleans).

[AbeVigodaLive]

If LaVine remains Rubio's primary backup the rest of the season... I'd expect those differences with/without Rubio to grow even more.