Doubts On Towns

[Volans19]

We are down to the final weeks of conference play, and it's been interesting to see which prospects started the season hot but then faded, and which prospects started slow but are peaking at the right time.

Although scouts tend to take a holistic view of the season -- everything matters -- it is true that they are looking for progress as the season goes on, and players peaking now (especially in March) leave stronger impressions heading into the draft.

After speaking with a number of GMs and scouts, here's a look at several players who are peaking as the season winds down:

Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Fr., Kentucky

Slowly but surely, Towns continues to make a serious case for the No. 1 pick. Kentucky's platoon system and a number of blowouts have limited his minutes and artificially lowered his stats. Still, he has put up some huge games lately: 19 points, 8 rebounds and 2 blocks against Florida; 12 points, 13 rebounds and 2 blocks against LSU; and 19 points, 10 rebounds and 4 blocks in 21 minutes against Auburn. In his past six games, Towns is averaging 13 points, 9 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in 24 minutes per game, while shooting 64 percent from the field. He has also made 17 of 18 free throws -- a key stat for a big man.

From an analytics standpoint, Towns has caught Jahlil Okafor and even surpassed him in some systems, including Kevin Pelton's. Towns is a little bigger than Okafor, more athletic, a better defender and a better shot-blocker, but can Towns make the case that he's the better long-term prospect? I've spoken to some general managers over the past week who are starting to think he might be. In short, with the rise of Towns and D'Angelo Russell, Okafor's grip on the No. 1 pick isn't nearly as tight as it was a month ago.

Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Jr., Kentucky

Cauley-Stein's season numbers (9.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) certainly don't scream top-10 pick -- especially for a junior. Kevin Pelton's Statistical Big Board doesn't have him in the top 30. But scouts are seeing something very different. Cauley-Stein's unique combination of athleticism and size makes him a potential dominant defensive force who can defend multiple positions on the floor. We already knew he was an amazing finisher in transition and off lobs. Until recently, the rest of his offensive repertoire was a major work in progress, but Cauley-Stein has been surprising scouts lately by showing off a midrange jump shot in limited quantities. This season, 37 percent of the shots Cauley-Stein takes are 2-point jumpers, and he's shooting a respectable 35 percent this season. That number has been going up all season. If Cauley-Stein can figure out any semblance of a 10-foot jumper, he has the chance to be great.

Christian Wood, PF, So., UNLV

UNLV's season has been a mess, but Wood has quietly put together a terrific sophomore year. He's had some especially impressive performances lately. In the past two weeks, he had 27 points, 19 rebounds and 7 blocks against Fresno State, and 31 points, 9 rebounds and 5 blocks against Air Force. Five of Wood's past seven performances have been double-doubles, and he's been averaging 4 blocks in his past six games. Although his shot selection leaves a lot to be desired and he needs to add strength, Wood's combination of size, athleticism, rebounding and shot-blocking is getting him serious consideration as a mid-to-late first-round pick.

Jarell Martin, PF, So., LSU

Martin was considered one of the top 10 players in the high school class of 2013 but quickly faded in the draft discussion after a less-than-dominant freshman year (thanks in large part to some early-season injuries). His strong play of late, however, has scouts talking again. Martin had 21 points and 11 rebounds against a Kentucky front line that sports four potential first-round picks. He followed it up 10 days later (on Saturday) with a 28-point, 13-rebound performance against Florida. Martin hasn't proved to be the shooter he was pegged to be out of high school (30 percent on 3s and 34 percent on 2-point jumpers). But he's been a strong finisher at the rim and a solid rebounder.

Isaac Copeland, F, Fr., Georgetown

Copeland had had a pretty quiet freshman season -- until he was inserted into the starting lineup three games ago. Since then, he's been terrific: 20 points, eight rebounds and 3-for-4 from beyond the arc versus Seton Hall; 12 and 9 with two assists and three blocks against St. John's; and 12 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists Saturday versus DePaul. Copeland was one of the best high school players in the country last season, and some scouts think he'll follow in the footsteps of Otto Porter and become a lottery pick down the road. Copeland is long and athletic, and he can play both forward positions, shoot the 3, handle the ball and block shots. He's one of the more versatile prospects in the draft. Although it's unlikely he'll declare this year (he needs to add strength and consistency), if he finishes with a flurry, he'll be tempted. He has first-round talent.

Gary Payton II, PG, Jr. Oregon State

His father's nickname in the NBA was "The Glove," and the son is showing the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. Kevin Pelton has been high on Payton all season, and scouts are slowly starting to come around. Payton is averaging 3 steals per game and an impressive 1.3 blocks per game. In the past couple of weeks, he had seven blocks and four steals (Saturday against Colorado), six steals against USC, and five steals against Washington. He also dropped 24 points against Colorado, 24 against UCLA and 17 against Washington. Payton's lack of assists has raised some issues among scouts who question whether he's a "true" point guard, but he has slowly won over many scouts who are now conceding that he's an intriguing, potential first-rounder if he declares.

Cameron Payne, PG, So., Murray State

Murray State is in the midst of a 22-game win streak, and Payne is the engine behind the Racers' success. He is drawing praise from scouts as one of the most intelligent point guards in the draft. Payne isn't the strongest or most athletic point guard in the draft, but he is quick, is shooting the ball much better as a sophomore, and has a very advanced feel for the game. He probably isn't a first-round pick right now, but some teams are taking a very close look. As Kevin Pelton pointed out two weeks ago, Payne is a favorite of the analytics crowd.

[Coolbreeze44]

Another question -- Mudaiy is rated with a game that is like John Wall's. Doesn't shoot well (like Ricky) potential off the charts, like Wiggs. So if he's there do we take him, and let the chips fall where they fall?

I really like him. How about we take him and work out a trade with Denver for Farried?

My least favorite option of all options is trading that pick for Faried.

No, I didn't mean trade THAT pick. Take Mudiay and then balance the roster by doing a separate trade for Farried. We would have some ammo to maybe get that done.

Other than that pick, Wiggins or Rubio, what players/assets would we have that could bring Faried in return?

Another question -- Mudaiy is rated with a game that is like John Wall's. Doesn't shoot well (like Ricky) potential off the charts, like Wiggs. So if he's there do we take him, and let the chips fall where they fall?

I really like him. How about we take him and work out a trade with Denver for Farried?

My least favorite option of all options is trading that pick for Faried.

No, I didn't mean trade THAT pick. Take Mudiay and then balance the roster by doing a separate trade for Farried. We would have some ammo to maybe get that done.

Other than that pick, Wiggins or Rubio, what players/assets would we have that could bring Faried in return?

Would you trade Zach and Dieng for Farried?

[kekgeek]

Another question -- Mudaiy is rated with a game that is like John Wall's. Doesn't shoot well (like Ricky) potential off the charts, like Wiggs. So if he's there do we take him, and let the chips fall where they fall?

I really like him. How about we take him and work out a trade with Denver for Farried?

My least favorite option of all options is trading that pick for Faried.

No, I didn't mean trade THAT pick. Take Mudiay and then balance the roster by doing a separate trade for Farried. We would have some ammo to maybe get that done.

Other than that pick, Wiggins or Rubio, what players/assets would we have that could bring Faried in return?

Another question -- Mudaiy is rated with a game that is like John Wall's. Doesn't shoot well (like Ricky) potential off the charts, like Wiggs. So if he's there do we take him, and let the chips fall where they fall?

I really like him. How about we take him and work out a trade with Denver for Farried?

My least favorite option of all options is trading that pick for Faried.

No, I didn't mean trade THAT pick. Take Mudiay and then balance the roster by doing a separate trade for Farried. We would have some ammo to maybe get that done.

Other than that pick, Wiggins or Rubio, what players/assets would we have that could bring Faried in return?

Would you trade Zach and Dieng for Farried?

No

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Another question -- Mudaiy is rated with a game that is like John Wall's. Doesn't shoot well (like Ricky) potential off the charts, like Wiggs. So if he's there do we take him, and let the chips fall where they fall?

I really like him. How about we take him and work out a trade with Denver for Farried?

My least favorite option of all options is trading that pick for Faried.

No, I didn't mean trade THAT pick. Take Mudiay and then balance the roster by doing a separate trade for Farried. We would have some ammo to maybe get that done.

Other than that pick, Wiggins or Rubio, what players/assets would we have that could bring Faried in return?

Would you trade Zach and Dieng for Farried?

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Thanks, Volans! Some good stuff there from ESPN. I'm glad Towns is starting to really turn some heads. I have to hope Flip is big on him.

[bleedspeed]

Jarell Martin, PF, So., LSU

He has some promise as a steal. Slated as a second rounder by Draftexpress right now.

[Papalrep]

Great Post Volans, thanks. I wonder if whoever ends up with Cauley - Stein ends up with a version of Joakim Noah

[TRKO [enjin:12664595]]

Great Post Volans, thanks. I wonder if whoever ends up with Cauley - Stein ends up with a version of Joakim Noah

That's exactly my thought. That's why if we drop out of the top 5 he is a guy I like. A super role player that would be great defensively and on the glass.

[Hicks123 [enjin:6700838]]

Great Post Volans, thanks. I wonder if whoever ends up with Cauley - Stein ends up with a version of Joakim Noah

That's exactly my thought. That's why if we drop out of the top 5 he is a guy I like. A super role player that would be great defensively and on the glass.

The answer here is an emphatic NO. Noah was simply a much more dynamic player than WCS. Way more skilled. I just don't see the talent others see in this guy. While his defense is good, it is not good enough to keep him on the floor in the NBA while the rest of his game is a total dud.

[A Friendly Flatulence [enjin:8907904]]

I think WCS is in the Tyson Chandler or DeAndre Jordan role mold. Alley Oops, putbacks, & defense will be his calling card. If he can get to where Chandler & Jordan are I think he is worth a 5th/6th pick for us. Although he is a sleight of frame for the C position he is also agile enough to guard some forwards out on the perimeter that makes him unique. Although I have hopes of landing another franchise player with Russell or Towns (tier 1A) & Okafor or Mudaiy (tier 1B) WCS would not be a that bad consolation prize because I see him as adding value & versatility to our roster.