Tanking Tim - Raptors at Wolves GDT

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Q, I'm not disputing Zach's current lack of feel for the game, and his overall stats this year are atrocious. And there is certainly a risk that he will never "get it". I'm holding on to hope because I have seen a learning curve this year, and I see him playing better ball now than he was in December. He still turns the ball over way too much, does some head-scratching things on defense, and takes questionable shots, but I keep telling myself this is a kid who hardly played college ball. I was against the pick when Flip did it, but I have been pleasantly surprised with Zach in many ways and see him now as a potential star. But I will concede that the range of possible outcomes for Zach is immense.

Right. So now tell me someone who as a rookie had a similar lack of feel, poor stats, and with a similar amount of playing time that did end up becoming a star? I can't think of anyone. So why is Zach different?

Again, I'm not arguing that he can't become a nice player or a really good specialist (e.g. bench scorer). I'm arguing that with as much playing time he's received and given his performance to date, it's hard to see him becoming a star.

As Abe mentioned, picking up nuance, craftiness, floor vision, and wisdom is a hell of a lot harder than "he just needs more time". If that's the case, why isn't Javale McGee one of the best Centers in the NBA? Why didn't Andray Blatche become the best PF in the game? Why wasn't Josh Smith or Ty Thomas perennial all-stars? These guys are enormously gifted in similar ways that Zach is physically. Knowing how to play the game and having good basketball instincts are just as much of a gift as being able to run and jump out of the gym.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Fair point, q, and exactly why I maintain a healthy skepticism about Zach. I agree that it's difficult to name any player so clueless in his first year that overcame that to become a star.

But I keep an open mind about Zach, because I think he is truly unique. Two things separate him from almost all others. First, is his rare combination of supreme athleticism and shooting prowess. When you watch Zach doing something simple like taking the ball upcourt, it's clear that he is an unusually gifted athlete...nobody moves like he does. Combine that athleticism with a shooting touch, and you have a lot of raw material to work with. Secondly, there's no evidence that he has ever been coached. He was largely ignored at UCLA by Alford, and who knows what he learned in high school. I'm interested in seeing what a real coach can do with him, especially if he is given a chance to play primarily SG.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Q, I'm not disputing Zach's current lack of feel for the game, and his overall stats this year are atrocious. And there is certainly a risk that he will never "get it". I'm holding on to hope because I have seen a learning curve this year, and I see him playing better ball now than he was in December. He still turns the ball over way too much, does some head-scratching things on defense, and takes questionable shots, but I keep telling myself this is a kid who hardly played college ball. I was against the pick when Flip did it, but I have been pleasantly surprised with Zach in many ways and see him now as a potential star. But I will concede that the range of possible outcomes for Zach is immense.

Right. So now tell me someone who as a rookie had a similar lack of feel, poor stats, and with a similar amount of playing time that did end up becoming a star? I can't think of anyone. So why is Zach different?

Again, I'm not arguing that he can't become a nice player or a really good specialist (e.g. bench scorer). I'm arguing that with as much playing time he's received and given his performance to date, it's hard to see him becoming a star.

As Abe mentioned, picking up nuance, craftiness, floor vision, and wisdom is a hell of a lot harder than "he just needs more time". If that's the case, why isn't Javale McGee one of the best Centers in the NBA? Why didn't Andray Blatche become the best PF in the game? Why wasn't Josh Smith or Ty Thomas perennial all-stars? These guys are enormously gifted in similar ways that Zach is physically. Knowing how to play the game and having good basketball instincts are just as much of a gift as being able to run and jump out of the gym.

If everything had to have previously been done to be possible, then goodbye human evolution and innovation. Zach can handle the ball, has a good looking jumper and can jump 44" while being lightning quick in a 6'6 frame. You can probably count in under 2 hands the amount of athletes at that level in the history of the game. You can build basketball IQ through practice and studying tape. You can't do anything to get that athletic a profile.


He's been a scorer his whole life asking to be a creator for others over himself. That's a massive adjustment for any player. There's a reason he has looked much better at the two than PG. He's a scorer. Put the ball in his hands to score and the assists will come when teams have to adjust to him. You don't have to be a great rookie to become a great player especially when he is only 19. Oladipo was a bad PG last year and now he is a solid player in year two at his natural SG position and is poised to make another big jump next year.

This year was dedicated to making Zach uncomfortable to help him grow as an all-around player. Next year we should see a big leap when he goes back to the 2 full time and gets to play more to his strengths.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Should we add another guy to the comparison list?

JR Smith? Granted, JR Smith may be the biggest knucklead of them all... but he was still explosive, could dribble and a solid shooter. And like LaVine, he basically developed in the pros.

That's a guy who's crafted out a pretty solid NBA career. But it's one where most would wonder "what could have been." Regardless of what LaVine says publicly, or what we're told behind the scenes, we don't really know if LaVine has the drive to be the very best he can be. We don't know how hard he'll work to grasp the nuances. He might just dig what he is/will be based solely on his athleticism. After all, there are worse things than making a few million per year to hang out with superstars, be cheered for by thousands and nail groupies on the road.

Will that be enough for LaVine? Is he capable of more? We should find out in a few months. If he truly has star potential, we can expect to see marked improvement next season.

[alexftbl8181 [enjin:6648741]]

Guys let's just remember a few things

He was a backup shooting guard just last year playing only 20 or so minutes a game.

He's playing a different position, the hardest to learn in the league.

He's played with a whole shit ton of different people this year, and most of them are not very good.

He would probably look a hell of a lot better if he didn't have to worry about running the offense, and probably not have to play as many minutes because of the injuries.

I just don't know what some of you expected out of the guy. He's shown plenty of flashes

[AbeVigodaLive]

Guys let's just remember a few things

He was a backup shooting guard just last year playing only 20 or so minutes a game.

He's playing a different position, the hardest to learn in the league.

He's played with a whole shit ton of different people this year, and most of them are not very good.

He would probably look a hell of a lot better if he didn't have to worry about running the offense, and probably not have to play as many minutes because of the injuries.

I just don't know what some of you expected out of the guy. He's shown plenty of flashes

In fact, he's showing more promise than I expected.

But I don't think anybody is calling him a bust. Or worthless... he's deserved at least that. But I see multiple posts about him becoming a "star" and I think it's important to (1) define exactly what a star is (2) how few "stars" there are (3) how difficult it is to be a star (4) and perhaps most importantly, how far away LaVine is from being a star.

[Lipoli390]

Guys let's just remember a few things

He was a backup shooting guard just last year playing only 20 or so minutes a game.

He's playing a different position, the hardest to learn in the league.

He's played with a whole shit ton of different people this year, and most of them are not very good.

He would probably look a hell of a lot better if he didn't have to worry about running the offense, and probably not have to play as many minutes because of the injuries.

I just don't know what some of you expected out of the guy. He's shown plenty of flashes

Well said, Alex. And I'll add as someone who has seen Zach live over 25 times this season that he does NOT have a "bad feel" for the game. He actually has a nice feel and sees the floor fairly well. He's turned the ball over a lot and made a number if boneheaded mistakes, but nothing out of the ordinary for a 19/20 year old one-and-done rookie forced to play out of position at the NBA's most difficult and competitive position.

And look at his more recent stats: Since the allstar break he's averaged 12 points, 3.3 boards, and 3.3 assists in 26 minutes per game. In that same span he's averaged 42% from the field, 40.6% from behind the arc and 86.4% from the line. In our last game, he averaged 22 points on better than 50% shooting with 6 boards and 7 assists. So what's the worry?! He's going to be an NBA rotation player and definitely has the ability to be an allstar.

There are plenty of concerns and negatives associated with our Wolves. Zach isn't one of them. He's definitely a player to build around. The only question regardng Zach is whether he'll become an allstar caliber player/star.

Here are some questions truly worthy of concern:

1. Will Pek continue to take up $12 million per season in cap space for the next 3 years without contributing more than he contributed the past two seasons?

2. Will Ricky be able to stay healthy for at least 70 games per season the rest of his career and will he develop a consistent perimeter shot?

3. Will we be able to get a second round pick for Payne when Flip finally realizes that Payne will not be a reliable rotation player?

4. Will we end up with a starting caliber PF and if so who? Does any current roster player have the potential to grow into that role? If not how will we get that guy? Draft? Trade? Free agency?

5. Can Dieng develop into a starting caliber center on a Western Conference playoff team? If not, will the Wolves acquire one? How? Draft? Trade? Free agency? Who?

6. Will we acquire a legitimate backup PG? How and who?

7. Is Martin our answer as our starting SG the next few seasons?

8. Do we have the assets (other than Wiggins and Ricky) to acquire an impact player via trade? If so what are those assets?

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I agree that we need to be patient with Zach...there's just too much potential. I don't think it's inconsistent to acknowledge his terrible stats this year, but at the same time talk about his high ceiling. I'll continue to say that the range of outcomes for Zach is as wide as any current NBA player.

I take some issue with the default consensus here that Zach is playing out of position...it's out of step with both Flip's and Zach's thoughts. I think it stems from his poor stats at PG this year (not unexpected for a 19-year-old rookie), and the fact that Alford oddly played him only at SG last year. And also because we want him to be a starter, and many of us still see Rubio as a potentially star PG. But Zach has always played PG, and prior to this year always referred to himself as a PG. Personally, I'm glad that Flip gave Zach so many minutes at PG this year, albeit in sink or swim fashion, because I see his future as a talented combo guard...with the ability to start either at PG or SG. A lot of his future depends on whether we keep Rubio and he becomes the star PG I think he can become. I still like Wiggins best at SG, opening up space for Muhammad or someone else at SF, and that would leave Zach backing up Rubio and Wiggins at the two guard spots in what I think would be a powerful 3-man rotation.

[Lipoli390]

Long -

I see Wiggins better suited to the SF position. His ballhandling just doesn't look like what you'd expect frm a star SG. Yet he has the length to guard the SF position. So if he's going to be a star I think it will be as a SF.

Zach just looks like a SG to me and that's the position he played in college. What he played in high school doesn't matter much to me.

[Lipoli390]

A couple more critical question:

1. Will Flip continue to coach this team? If not, who? Will we finally get a head coach and staff who can coach defense?

2. Who will/should we draft this year?

3. How good will Shabazz be next season and what will/should his role be?