Observations from the Past 20 Drafts

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

I took a look at the past 20 drafts beginning in 1995 (KG's class) and looked at all the top 6 picks in each draft and found some interesting findings.

1. It pays to keep the top pick. Despite some high profile busts at #1 like Joe Smith, Kwame Brown, Bargnani and Kandiman, the #1 spot overwhelmingly produced better players and more franchise players than any other spot in the top 6. In fact, the #1 spot produced 11 franchise players which is the same or roughly the same number of franchise players in all of the combined picks in spots 2-6. Of course, whether a player is a franchise player or likely to become a franchise player (e.g. Wiggins) is subjective and where I thought a player was a borderline case (e.g. Horford, Bosh, Allen, Carter, Lillard and possibly Gasol), I included a range. It just shows you that the top pick has a better than 50% chance of becoming a franchise pick and picks 2 to 6 have about a 12-15% chance of becoming a franchise pick.

2. Pick 5 produced the second best results

3. The 2nd overall pick produced the worst results of any pick in the top 5.


Notable Picks at each of the top 6 spots in the last 20 drafts:

#1 picks: LeBron, Duncan, Anthony Davis, Iverson, Dwight Howard, Wiggins, Wall, Blake Griffin, Irving, D. Rose, Yao MIng, Brand, Bogut (11 Franchise)

#2 picks: Durant, Aldridge, McDyess, Tyson Chandler, Francis, Parker (2 Franchise)

#3 picks: Harden, Melo, Pau Gasol, Horford, Baron Davis, Deron Williams, Billups (3 to 4 Franchise)

#4 picks: CP3, Westbrook, Bosh, Rasheed Wallace, Marbury, Conley, Jamison (2 or 3 Franchise)

#5 picks: KG, Wade, Love, Cousins, Ray Allen, Vince Carter, Rubio (4 to 6 Franchise)

#6 picks: Lillard, Brandon Roy, Nerlens Noel, Antoine Walker, Wally (0-1 Franchise)

My conclusion is we need to keep the top pick and select the BPA.

[Carlos Danger]

Or trade down to #5 if a sweet deal presents itself :-) But I doubt any such deal would happen and I doubt the Wolves would do so anyhow after waiting this long to get the #1 overall. It's going to be a really fun draft to watch and I expect a lot of deals. But I'm pretty confident we walk away with Towns to start things off.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Johnny Flynn just needs a little more seasoning. But seriously friends, I like the research that goes into these discussions.

Even during the hot stove time, the board is very active. I think we all see a great team on the rise!

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Nice work Team Ricky. I didn't realize there was that big of a gap between #1 and #2. The 5 thing is probably more random than anything. The real lesson is that it pays to win the lottery....everything else between 2 and 6 is sort of a wash.

[Monster]

Nice work Team Ricky. I didn't realize there was that big of a gap between #1 and #2. The 5 thing is probably more random than anything. The real lesson is that it pays to win the lottery....everything else between 2 and 6 is sort of a wash.

#5 has been pretty good to the wolves.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Nice work Team Ricky. I didn't realize there was that big of a gap between #1 and #2. The 5 thing is probably more random than anything. The real lesson is that it pays to win the lottery....everything else between 2 and 6 is sort of a wash.

#5 has been pretty good to the wolves.

Yeah, no kidding!

[Porckchop]

Good read Team Ricky. Thanks for the time spent writing it up.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

Thanks Rick.

It's sobering to think about what your analysis implies. While 11 of the last 20 #1 picks became franchise players, that means 9 DIDN'T. And of course it gets worse from there. At the #2 pick, 18 out of 20 did not become franchise players, 16 or 17 out of the #3 spot failed to become franchise players, and so on.

This is the time of year when we most overvalue draft picks, even at the top. While it's obviously better to have the #1 than the #4 pick (I love the statistical wackiness that the #5 pick has been pretty good!), the fact is, that only a few of these players live up to the hope and expectations we have for them. It's also a reminder that what seems like conventional wisdom (this guy will be good, etc.) often turns out to be wrong.

[Lipoli390]

Thanks Rick.

It's sobering to think about what your analysis implies. While 11 of the last 20 #1 picks became franchise players, that means 9 DIDN'T. And of course it gets worse from there. At the #2 pick, 18 out of 20 did not become franchise players, 16 or 17 out of the #3 spot failed to become franchise players, and so on.

This is the time of year when we most overvalue draft picks, even at the top. While it's obviously better to have the #1 than the #4 pick (I love the statistical wackiness that the #5 pick has been pretty good!), the fact is, that only a few of these players live up to the hope and expectations we have for them. It's also a reminder that what seems like conventional wisdom (this guy will be good, etc.) often turns out to be wrong.

Which is why I'm glad Flip is not interested in dealing Ricky for a draft pick as some have suggested.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

Agreed, Lip. He's definitely got his flaws (oh my god his shooting is terrible!), but he's still a good player and he fits what we've got as a team right now.

Plus, I really like his intangibles. I was really impressed with how enthusiastic he was on the bench during his injury last year. Compare that to Love during the Cavs' playoff run.

Rubio was actively cheering on the worst team in the league through the end of the regular season. Love was sitting stone-faced while his team made a gutsy run through the playoffs. Just night and day in terms of personalities.