bleedspeed177 wrote:I think Brandon Roy is a fair comparison.
Case in point: That's a ceiling comparison. Same with the James Harden and Steph Curry comparisons. All three are best-case-scenarios.
What is his most likely outcome? Probably something not quite as good as those guys, but hopefully better than OJ Mayo.
There's literally no way to quantify most likely outcome. The draft is a crapshoot. The good ones are always way better than the most likely outcome and the bad ones are always worse. Highly touted guys have busted and nobody's have made it. You seem to be treating the most likely outcome like a middle ground type scenario, but the transition to the NBA does not make that any better a prediction than the ceiling or floor. I just don't see a most likely outcome because there are just too many variables that decide whether or not guys make it in the league and to what degree. That's typically why draft guys do ceiling and floor and the guy could be anywhere on that spectrum and outside that spectrum. It's an educated guess, not a pinpoint prediction.
Don't necessarily disagree, but one can build a continuum of player comparisons, starting with a floor and going up to ceiling. Of course we don't know where the person will ultimately fall, but odds are probably pretty good it will be somewhere along the continuum between the bottom and the top. In rare cases, it will be even worse than the floor and better than the top.
My larger point is that when we are riffing on these draft picks, we always seem to have visions of grandeur and totally discount the 50%+ chance of the person being worse than the player being compared to.
Camden0916 wrote:I think Mayo was the floor for Russell sooo... might not want to get so feisty.
You are saying the floor is mayo, though I see nothing similar in their games for that, but others were saying that is his best comparison and that is far off. If anyone cares to explain I'm open to reading how this comparison can be made.
TheFuture wrote:The mayo comparison has to be a joke.
Russell has a better form, quicker release, better footwork, better IQ, better handles/dribble drive ability, better vision/passing, better measurable. The only thing he is/was not better at than mayo is defense. If my memory serves me right Russell is also the better rebounder and was considered a leader while mayo was looked at as a cancer.
The only thing similar is their height and maybe their shoe size. Oh and they were freshman. They couldn't be anymore different.
I like Russell, but let's not get carried away with his superiority to Mayo when OJ was at this stage in the process. Mayo was VERY highly touted as a prep player and was mocked as a top 3 or 4 pick, just like Russell is now.
Mayo averaged 20 PPG on 44 FG%, 41 3PT%, and 80 FT%. That's pretty damn good.
Whenever we project draft prospects, we need to consider the ceiling and the floor, because the odds are about 50/50 that they end up closer to the floor.....
Ya mayo was highly ranked since he was in a diaper or whatever but he never lived up to it. He was a ballhogand a cancer. EvEveryone knows this.
Towns best case scenario - Aldridge/horford hybrid
Okafor best case scenario - Duncan/big all hybrid
Russell best case scenario - Roy/curry hybrid
The only one not to be relied on all season and prove anything really - Towns.
I've been a towns guy because of fit and potential just as long as Camden, but everyone has gotten so carried away with him. Its gotten downright annoying. He has the biggest bust factor of the 3. Yeah he's a good pick but he's not even close to being on an island by himself like Shaq, Duncan, Lebron, Davis, etc. Why does everyone seem to think he has anything close to the potential of those guys? Compare stats to other far and away #1s not extrapolated BS. Make any excuse you want about depth and him not needing to play but calipari is in the business of winning college titles. If Towns proved in practice he was a supreme talent he would have played 25-30 mins a night. This #1 race is very very close.
Camden0916 wrote:I think Mayo was the floor for Russell sooo... might not want to get so feisty.
You are saying the floor is mayo, though I see nothing similar in their games for that, but others were saying that is his best comparison and that is far off. If anyone cares to explain I'm open to reading how this comparison can be made.
Read through this and maybe you see where people are coming from. Russell to me is a better passer but I think Mayo was considered a bigtime scorer back then and reading this I remember Mayo's defense was actually supposed to be a strength or at the very least was not supposed to be a weakness which seems to be a question Russell in that area. Really it's amazing how Mayo ended up being as bad as he is right now so maybe him as a floor is almost the worst case scenario for a guy that really is such a terrific prospect.
Rubiooooooo wrote:Towns best case scenario - Aldridge/horford hybrid
Okafor best case scenario - Duncan/big all hybrid
Russell best case scenario - Roy/curry hybrid
The only one not to be relied on all season and prove anything really - Towns.
I've been a towns guy because of fit and potential just as long as Camden, but everyone has gotten so carried away with him. Its gotten downright annoying. He has the biggest bust factor of the 3. Yeah he's a good pick but he's not even close to being on an island by himself like Shaq, Duncan, Lebron, Davis, etc. Why does everyone seem to think he has anything close to the potential of those guys? Compare stats to other far and away #1s not extrapolated BS. Make any excuse you want about depth and him not needing to play but calipari is in the business of winning college titles. If Towns proved in practice he was a supreme talent he would have played 25-30 mins a night. This #1 race is very very close.
Best post I've read on this decision. I lean Okafor and believe he will be better but there is nothing runaway about my stance. It is a really tough decision and I hope they take their time making it. I am on board with whoever they take. Ever since Flip took Bazz I was confident in his assessment of NCAA talent.
bleedspeed177 wrote:I think Brandon Roy is a fair comparison.
Case in point: That's a ceiling comparison. Same with the James Harden and Steph Curry comparisons. All three are best-case-scenarios.
What is his most likely outcome? Probably something not quite as good as those guys, but hopefully better than OJ Mayo.
There's literally no way to quantify most likely outcome. The draft is a crapshoot. The good ones are always way better than the most likely outcome and the bad ones are always worse. Highly touted guys have busted and nobody's have made it. You seem to be treating the most likely outcome like a middle ground type scenario, but the transition to the NBA does not make that any better a prediction than the ceiling or floor. I just don't see a most likely outcome because there are just too many variables that decide whether or not guys make it in the league and to what degree. That's typically why draft guys do ceiling and floor and the guy could be anywhere on that spectrum and outside that spectrum. It's an educated guess, not a pinpoint prediction.
Don't necessarily disagree, but one can build a continuum of player comparisons, starting with a floor and going up to ceiling. Of course we don't know where the person will ultimately fall, but odds are probably pretty good it will be somewhere along the continuum between the bottom and the top. In rare cases, it will be even worse than the floor and better than the top.
My larger point is that when we are riffing on these draft picks, we always seem to have visions of grandeur and totally discount the 50%+ chance of the person being worse than the player being compared to.
We have the number 1 pick. We need the guy with the highest ceiling and traits (hard worker, loves the game, etc.) to achieve that ceiling. We can't make this decision based on the middle ground or the floor. Taking any one of Towns, Okafor or Russell is going to be based on how good Flip thinks they can become, not what's the worst case scenario or how good they'll be if they don't quite hit their ceiling. At the end of the day I don't think you should draft a guy based on the middle or the bottom. Determine a reasonable ceiling (some of these guys do reasonably have elite player ceilings) and pick the best player from there.
