Gotta Get Something v. Let Him Walk

[foye2smith [enjin:6593248]]

I've become indifferent toward how the Love issue is resolved. In recent years we've had 3 cases of teams that went the route of "gotta get something for him", 3 cases of "let him walk", and the sour taste of the Wolves KG trade. Here are the cases I'm referring to:

LET HIM WALKS-SIGN & TRADE

Phoenix Suns (Stoudemire)- Nothing

Clevalnd Cavaliers (James)- 2017 1st, Milan Macvan, Jae Crowder (traded along with Jared Cunningham & Bernard James for Tyler Zeller & Kelenna Azubuike), Nemanja Nedovic (traded along with Sessions & Eyenga for Jason Kapono, Luke Walton, and 2012 1st round pick [Jared Cunningham])

Tyler Zeller and a future 1st still with the team.

Toronto Raptors (Bosh)- Jonas Valanciunas (their own pick traded back) & Norris Cole (traded for James Johnson)

Valanciunas still with the team.

GOTTA GET SOMETHINGS
Denver Nuggets (Anthony)- Kosta Koufos (trade for Darrell Arthur and Joffrey Lauvergne), Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton (traded for Andre Miller, Justin Hamilton and 2014 2nd), Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, Quincy Miller, Romero Osby, and 2014 1st

Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Timofey Mozgov, Quincy Miller, Darrell Arthur, 2014 1st, and 2014 2nd still with team.

Orlando Magic (Howard)-Aaron Afflalo, Al Harrington, 2014 1st, Christian Eyenga, Josh McRoberts (traded for Hakim Warrick), 2017 1st,, Mo Harkless, Nikola Vucevic, and future conditional 1st from Philly.

Aaron Afflalo, 2014 1st, 2017 1st, Mo Harkless, Nikola Vucevic, and future 1st from Philly still with team.

Utah Jazz (Williams)-Derrick Favors, Devin Harris (traded for Marvin Williams), Enes Kanter, and Gorgui Dieng (traded for Trey Burke)

Derrick Favors, Marvin Williams, Enes Kanter, and Trey Burke still with team.

The point being is it takes a lot of luck and the results are just random and most of what has turned up are good not great teams (barring what happens with Orlando IF they nail their upcoming picks maybe they contend). Denver was good but never threatened to take the West. Frankly, Utah, Denver, and Orlando aren't really that much closer if any closer to championship contender than what Cleveland, Phoenix, or Toronto are. Orlando is the only team that "traded for something" with some moving pieces yet. Utah on the doorstep of paying their young core, what's a team's ceiling led by Favors, Kanter, and Hayward? The Nuggets are probably closer to a rebuild than they are a deep playoff run, the contracts bulk of their return are up in a season or two.

So a question that comes to mind regarding this is how would you rank these 6 teams' outlook over the next 3 years? What does that tell you about whatever return we may get for Kevin Love?

[SameOldNudityDrew]

I think there's a third possibility that's missing here: keep him, have a good season, and actually convince him to stay.

I don't like Love. He's not a good leader, and not a particularly likable person. But he's a great player, and it's tough to imagine we'd be better anytime in the next couple years without him, especially if we trade him for cap space and picks rather than more immediate help (like the rumored Golden State deal). Could we actually convince him to stay? I'm not sure. We do have more talent than our record would indicate, and with a new coach, maybe we could surprise some people and be a threat in the playoffs. Would that be enough for Love? Who knows. There are obviously some personality/communication problems with this team, and I wonder whether a good season would be enough to convince Love that the rest of the Timberwolves are not "they" but "us." It's a gamble, that's for sure. He clearly wants out now. But I'd almost rather roll the dice on changing his mind than on cashing in now, and if we did trade, I'd rather go for veteran players than future assets.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I would say Phoenix, Toronto, Orlando, Cleveland, Denver, and then Utah in that order. Cleveland should have been the clear number 1 in this scenario, but aren't because of just as many bad draft moves as us. You look at picks they missed on. If I would have been drafting for them, they'd be looking at a Irving/Waiters/Noel/Jonas core with a very reasonable chance at number 1 this year where they get Parker or Wiggins to fill in at the 3. I think Phoenix has the best coach of the bunch and a very good tandem in Dragic/Bledsoe in the backcourt. Toronto is based on if they keep Lowry for me. If he leaves, I drop them below Cleveland just because he was the best PG in the East this year. Orlando just needs to get the right guy at 4 and they could be rounding off the core and moving forward with a Dipo/Vucevic/Harris/4th pick core which is a good core in the East. Cleveland still has Kyrie and the number 1 in a loaded draft. A Kyrie/Embiid core would be a very good place to start. Denver missed their chance when they let Iggy go. They were a solid team last year and would have been a perennial playoff team which is pretty good for teams that just don't have the star power to compete for a title to begin with. Finally Utah. They just didn't hit with the draft picks and now have to pay them more than they are worth. If they could get Wiggins to defend between Burke and Hayward they could have something nice, but Kanter/Favors/Hayward/Burke are average to slightly above average players at best. They are supporting guys and I just don't see that team doing much in the next 3 years. They were like us with bad draft luck, never really getting good draft pick position to begin with to build the team around Favors after the Nets deal.

[Phenom]

I still like what Denver, Utah, and Orlando did. They were at least able to get one player they coveted (Gallo, Favors, Afflalo) and at least one first. Flip needs to target one player that he has to have and tell his team to find a third team to put the deal over the top.

[horatio81 [enjin:7751176]]

OP didn't account for context, which is pretty much everything when your sample size is six.

The only way I trade Love is if I'm getting a package of a top five pick in this draft PLUS another first PLUS a good young player who isn't headed for max dollars. THAT package jump starts a legitimate rebuild.

Weaker picks? No point. Might as well bottom out ourselves and get to the meaningful portion of the lottery. A guy like klay Thompson, who thinks he's headed for max money or anxious to bounce the moment he's able? Useless. He'll do just enough to win us. 25 games and the 9th pick.

The reason you don't trade Love for "whatever you can get" is simple: that's allowing the players to run the league. And you know what happens when the players run the league? A bunch of big market/warm weather superteams crushing a bunch of meaningless cold weather Midwest teams.

The "have nots" need to grow some effing balls and start telling these "superstars" no. If they want to leave in free agency, fine. Let them deal with the salary cap situations at most contending cities. Better than continual complicity in their migration.

[zigzag22 [enjin:6591633]]

Really thorough and interesting topic. The only thing I want to add is that THAT decision comes down to first understanding the BIGGEST decision: is there any percent chance you can convince him to stay? I've read a lot about what PDX did with Aldridge, but let's be honest, that team is just better than the Wolves. This team can't make that kind of leap without some major changes.

So...if you decide there is NO way you can keep Love, then literally any asset is better than letting him go. Love for the #6 pick straight up is an enormously bad trade, but if he is 100% gone next year (and you guys, he IS), then you HAVE TO get value for your asset. It's the biggest no-brainer in sports.