Wolves v jazz GDT

[thedoper]

It sounds like the real move statistically for us to change our odds is if we get to the 5th pick. At 4th we move from a 40% chance of keeping the pick to 36.5%. The odds are pretty similar regardless of where this is going to pan out. I dont think we catch OKC or Cleveland with 11 games left. Either way I think our history has shown that none of this is something to get excited about. On talent acquisition, we need to turn the Juancho, Rubio, and Culver money into real NBA players that can defend if this team is going to be competitive.

[Lipoli390]

It sounds like the real move statistically for us to change our odds is if we get to the 5th pick. At 4th we move from a 40% chance of keeping the pick to 36.5%. The odds are pretty similar regardless of where this is going to pan out. I dont think we catch OKC or Cleveland with 11 games left. Either way I think our history has shown that none of this is something to get excited about. On talent acquisition, we need to turn the Juancho, Rubio, and Culver money into real NBA players that can defend if this team is going to be competitive.

Doper - I totally agree that we need to find a way to turn Juancho, Rubio and Culver into real NBA players that can defend. Not sure how we do that, but that's key.

[thedoper]

It sounds like the real move statistically for us to change our odds is if we get to the 5th pick. At 4th we move from a 40% chance of keeping the pick to 36.5%. The odds are pretty similar regardless of where this is going to pan out. I dont think we catch OKC or Cleveland with 11 games left. Either way I think our history has shown that none of this is something to get excited about. On talent acquisition, we need to turn the Juancho, Rubio, and Culver money into real NBA players that can defend if this team is going to be competitive.

Doper - I totally agree that we need to find a way to turn Juancho, Rubio and Culver into real NBA players that can defend. Not sure how we do that, but that's key.

Ideally its some sort of trade. Will probably cost us Beasley and a draft pick too, but is probably what we have to do now.

[FNG]

It sounds like the real move statistically for us to change our odds is if we get to the 5th pick. At 4th we move from a 40% chance of keeping the pick to 36.5%. The odds are pretty similar regardless of where this is going to pan out. I dont think we catch OKC or Cleveland with 11 games left. Either way I think our history has shown that none of this is something to get excited about. On talent acquisition, we need to turn the Juancho, Rubio, and Culver money into real NBA players that can defend if this team is going to be competitive.

You're probably right that it's nothing to get excited about, but I'm still hoping we keep our pick this year. You're correct that our odds of keeping our pick drop a lot if we move to 5th, but I'm not as optimistic as you about not catching OkC. They've lost 13 in a row and seem to be in no hurry to rush SGA back. Meanwhile the Wolves are giving every indication of being a .500 ballclub now that Finch has settled into a regular starting lineup and rotation with Dlo as 6th man. I see the Wolves going 6-5 the rest of the season, and after losing 13 in a row, it's not unlikely OkC finishes 2-10 and moves ahead of us in the lottery...they seem much more focused on lottery positioning than we are. Finch's best chance of staying in the bottom three would be to change his rotations the final 11 games under the guise of "learning more about this roster". Start Culver and Nowell and give them each 30+ minutes. Absent that, I think there's a good chance we pass OkC and finish 5th from the bottom.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

The lottery has failed this franchise time and again for the most part. You absolutely can build a winning program without a bunch of top 5 picks on your roster. The beauty of building with later picks, unsigned free agents, and trades is that guys actually have to EARN their way into the rotation. So if they suck, we aren't stuck still having to play them 25 MPG.

The reality is that KAT's window with this franchise is closing fast. Anyone we draft in the top 3 this year is outside of his window frankly. By the time they are actually really good (if that even happens), KAT will be nearly 30 years old.

Edwards, McDaniels, Reid, Nowell, Vanderbilt, Bolmaro....all guys that are 21 or younger. Do we really need more of the same next season?

Now if we do keep our pick, I see it more as a trade chip. That's not a bad thing either. But the last thing we need to do is keep trotting out 19, 20, and 21-year olds year after year unless the goal is to once again rebuild from the studs on up. It's a surefire way to keep losing games.

If you get an elite talent in the draft this year, he'll likely be contributing at a high level by his second or third season. KAT will be 27 years old in the second season of this year's draft pick. He'll be 28 years old and on the last year of his deal when this year's pick is in his third season. So I disagree that a pick this year would necessarily be outside KAT's window. In fact, this year is the last one when our pick's 2nd and 3rd seasons will overlap with KAT's contract and the front end of his prime.

I'd definitely be open to trading the pick, but as Abe mentioned, our salary situation doesn't lend itself to dealing a top 3 pick. When you trade a top 3 pick, you should expect to get a max player in return. It would be difficult to make that work given our payroll situation, although I could see a viable package involving Ricky and Beasley.

I think this team has the talent to make the playoffs next season and I expect that to happen now that we have what appears to be a quality head coach. The season after next will be the key. That will be KAT's second-to-last season and likely the one that determines whether he demands a trade. KAT and DLO will be in the heart of their prime at age 27 with more than a full season together. If Beasley is still here, he'll be just entering his prime at age 26. Okogie will be 25 years old in his 5th season. Ant and McDaniels will be in their 3rd seasons. Naz Reid and Nowell (if still here) will be in their 4th NBA seasons. That's a lot of talent that's young and still athletic but with substantial NBA experience. If we keep out pick this year, I don't think that pick will determine our fate two years from now. But I'd still love to have one of this year's top 3 draft prospects on this team in two years rather than a much lower pick next year who would be a rookie in what I consider the pivotal season for this franchise.

I agree that Beasley and Rubio are the keys to making a trade in my opinion. They are equivalent to about $30M in salary and Rubio only has one more year on his deal after this season. Beasley has turned out to be on a very good contract based on how he played and the market for 3-point gunners. That's a 20 PPG efficient scorer available for someone.

You mention the playoffs next year. I thought that was supposed to happen this year!? Nope. Instead, the can got kicked down the road for one more season and the cycle of losing and rebuilding continues.

The priority of this franchise should be to win games and change the culture of losing, which tanking and playing super young lottery picks only reinforces.