Should Bjelica be our starting PF?

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I saw the news this morning that Belly is going to skip the Olympics to rest his foot, and it got me thinking about his best role. While I prefer KG as our starting PF, Glen Taylor's comments yesterday that it's not just his knee but his entire leg that is bothering him, strengthened my belief that he will not contribute much this year. With that assumption, I think I prefer Belly over Gorgui.

Belly's per 36 stats after the All-Star game last year were 15/9/3 with shooting splits of 57/48/88. He clearly needed some time to adust to the NBA game because he frankly wasn't very good the first half off the year on either side of the ball, but his last half stats were nothing short of terrific. Some might say that the last half of the year was a mirage, but it looked a lot like the way he has played in Europe so I think it's legit.

Gorgui also improved last year and has shown that he is a borderline NBA starter. His PnR and overall defense is superior to Belly's, and that might be a reason Thibs would prefer starting G at PF. I acknowledge that Belly fouled too much last year and also was lazy rotating on deense. But his length, size and athleticism are acceptable for a PF, and hopefully Thibs can school him on better team defesne.

Offensively I far prefer Belly. G has some offensive aspects that I appreciate, and that's why I see him as a keeper long-term if possible. But while Belly looks smooth on offense, Gorgui can look clumsy even when he is effective. He's not a bad passer overall, but ball movement suffers when he is on the court; in contrast, Belly is a quick decision maker and is the king of the hockey assist. And you can't discount what his long-range shooting does for the offense. Forcing his defender to guard him tightly on the perimeter opens things up for our the players we need to lead our scoring...not to mention he is adept at putting the ball on the floor and getting to the basket if his defender plays his too tightly...either scoring or dishing. All in all, I think Belly opens up the game for our young stars better than Gorgui does.

[Benja513 [enjin:11130981]]

I would love to see that. Nothing against G at all, but I love the potential in Belly's game. Like you said, near the end of the season he showed a lot of his Euro drive and kick game on top of improving his outside shooting. If not starter I'd hope for first off the bench most games with starterish minutes. I think he brings a lot of dynamic play to our lineup.

[KiwiMatt]

I think Dieng did enough last season after the All Star Break to earn the starting PF position next to KAT. Under Thib I believe he will improve significantly defensively.

Bjelica and Aldrich is a nice front court pairing to have coming in off the bench.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

I like Bjelica and think he could surprise some people this year. His versatile skillset offensively is nice to have.

LST you put in some good thought on this, but personally, I wouldn't start Bjelica over Dieng.

First, I actually think Dieng is just a better overall player. He has his own style of movement (his old man hunch causes opponents to overlook his surprising nimbleness), but he's not clumsy. He is a good passer, a very good shooter, skilled and careful with the ball around the basket, and a good rebounder and yes, despite his reputation, he's also a good defender. And I do think the guy could actually hit 3s at a halfway decent rate if he got the green light, not as well as Bjelica probably, but the guy is a good shooter and he's flashed the range before.

Also, I think Gorgui is a better fit with the starters. Offensively, I think this because he doesn't need to initiate the offense to be effective as much as Bjelica. He works great as an efficient 4th offensive option after Towns, LaVine, and Wiggins (although I also think Dieng would be a very good offensive option when a bunch of bench players are with him). Defensively, and he's able to defend opposing 4s who can play in the post and even a bit on the perimeter, and he can guard 5s, which allows he and Towns defensive flexibility. Bjelica hasn't really proven he can do that. So both offensively and defensively, I think Dieng is actually a better fit with the starters than Bjelica.

Finally, I think Bjelica would fit really well with our probable bench guys. I agree with Kiwi that Bjelica and Aldrich should complement each other very well, offense-defense, inside-outside. And with a likely bench lineup of Tyus, Dunn, Bazz, and Aldrich, there is a need for the outside shooting that Bjelica definitely brings whereas Gorgui has not proven himself as a 3 point thread (although I suspect he could). Tyus, Dunn, and Bjelica bring the passing, Bazz and Dunn push the ball to score, Dunn and Aldrich anchor the defense outside and in, Bjelica and hopefully one other guy there (or Rush off the bench) provide the outside shooting. Could also drop in Rush or Hill there and swap out a couple guys and Bjelica still fits well.

Tyus
Dunn
Bazz
Bjelica
Aldrich

[Lipoli390]

I'm not too focused on who starts at PF. It's a matter of who's in the rotation and how minutes are allocated. I like both Dieng and Belly.

Dieng was terrific last season and has the sort of work ethic and tenacity that suggests he'll continue to improve. He has a fairly well-rounded game as a player who can rebound, block/change shots and score. He's a very reliable mid-range shooter who has extended his range out beyond the arc.

Belly struggled most of last season, but came on strong after the all-star break. I suspect his post-allstar improvement was not a fluke but rather a measure of the fact that he finally adjusted to the NBA game. He's clearly very skilled as a very good passer, good ball-handler and potentially very good 3-point shooter. He's also a pretty good rebounder although I think Gorgui's a bit better in that department.

I'd like to see a 4-man rotation consisting of KAT, Gorgui, Belly and Aldrich at C/PF positions. I see minutes at those two positions allocated among these four as something like KAT playing 34 minutes, Gorgui 30 minutes, Belly 20 minutes and Aldrich 12 minutes. I see Belly getting around 10 minutes off the bench at SF.

Barring injury I don't see meaningful minutes if any for KG, Pek, Jordan Hill or Payne. Of course, that's why the roster doesn't make sense right now. I understand having some depth to account for potential injuries, but having FOUR bigs riding the pine with almost no minutes among them is a prescription for bad feelings and a serious challenge to team chemistry. It also leaves us a bit short of depth at the other three positions combined. All the more reason I think the decision to sign Jordan Hill was premised on another couple roster moves involving KG, Pek and/or Payne. Perhaps signing Hill was a move to encourage KG to retire or sign that KG has already told Thibs he's likely to retire although I'm hearing KG wants to come back. Perhaps it was a sign that Thibs has already decided to buy out Pek or that he knows Pek intends to take an injury retirement before the season begins. Perhaps it was a clear signal that Payne will be bought out unless some team is willing to trade a future 2nd round pick for him after watching him dominate Summer League competition. :).

I'll go out on a limb and predict that at least two of our current 8 bigs won't be on our opening game roster.

[Monster]

I'm a believer in Belly and l am a fan of his. Would him being good enough to be a starter be good. Obviously. Do I expect that to happen? No. Dieng played very well last year as a starting PF which if people remember Q was pining for that to happen for over a year and many here were skeptical. I just don't expect Belly to be good enough to be the starter over a fairly effective player in Dieng from the minute he got a shot to play in the league. He seemed to do better coming off the bench last year in that role when he wasn't playing against the top PFs for long chunks at a time. I'm not saying that Belly starting over Dieng cant happen but I don't expect it and I think its a bit of a homer take to do so IMO. =) The good thing is they compliment each other so its great to have both. As some people have suggested its possible Thibs and Layden consider Belly a possible option playing minutes at SF even at times. I think that has limited worth but I am sure there are times it would work. some wing players just need a guy to basically stand next to them especially bench guys.

[thedoper]

I don't think he showed enough last year to be anywhere near a starting NBA 4. Yes he had some good games at the end of the year and maybe it was fitness or injuries. But he could barely find the court for most of the year and for good reason.

[bleedspeed]

If Belly can win the starting PF spot we will be much better team next year. It will be more that Belly found his groove then Dieng fell apart. It would make signing Dieng a lot easier next summer for sure.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I don't think he showed enough last year to be anywhere near a starting NBA 4. Yes he had some good games at the end of the year and maybe it was fitness or injuries. But he could barely find the court for most of the year and for good reason.

Agreed. I liked that Bjelica moved the ball and seemed to have a pretty good feel for the game. But it was a rough season overall. The officials' "point of interest" is never good for big foreign rookies. Bjelica was targeted for those silly travels early in the year. And the fouling... the fouling. His confidence was surely shook for a large chunk of the year.

It's great that he rebounded toward the end of the season. How much will carry over? I don't know. But I do know that late-season stat splurges on bad teams happen all the time. And quite often, they mean a lot less than we want them to.

It's the nature of NBA basketball for bad teams.



[Note: That being said. A guy who can move the ball and find gaps with the dribble and stretch the D is invaluable. Hope he can provide that. But if he plays anything like he did early in the season... he's 5th on the big man depth chart. Dieng showed legit improvement last season. And Hill got 20+ mpg for a playoff team. Both are serviceable. Bjelica didn't reach that level for most of the season.]

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I'm probably more of a Belly fan than most, but you guys makes some good points. While it would be terrific for Belly to show enough in pre-season to move ahead of G, I agree that right now Gorgui is our default starting PF.

I appreciate the point that he can help our second unit with 3-point shooting...especially if the other 4 are Aldrich, Bazz, Dunn and Tyus. I keep forgetting that Rush is a SF too though, and if Belly becomes the starting PF, perhaps Rush moves ahead of Bazz at SF to provide more shooting off the bench.