Predicting the West

[Monster]

The Wolves have done more than just add Dunn. First of all, they've added Thibs, going from a poor head coach to one of the best in the League. Second, they're best young players from last year (KAT, Wiggins, KAT, Jones and Dieng) are at points in their careers where it's likely they will improve significantly from last season. Third, we've substantially upgraded our bench, not just with Dunn, but also with Aldrich, Rush and Hill. Those four additions represent a HUGE upgrade over last year's bench of Andre Miller, Tayshaun Prince and Rudez.

That's a lot of improvement to what was actually a near .500 team after the all-star break. So although there's merit to the suggestion we won't be as healthy as last season, I still see the combination of the huge coaching upgrade, significant improvement from within and major improvement to the bench taking this team to 45-50 wins provided that KAT is healthy throughout. I see this upcoming season as the sort of breakout season the Thunder had in Durant's 3rd season the Thunder went from 20 something wins to 50 wins.

I'm gonna nitpick a little Lip. Miller when he played was pretty effective we just didn't play him much. Prince was fairly effective as well.

I think we all would agree this team has nice depth but we say that every year. A lot of us thought last year we were going to get something out of Pek KG and Martin and it turned out Prince was the most worthwhile vet on the team (Rubio would be more of a young vet). This other guys didn't even play a season's worth of games between them and KG was the only one of them that was effective when he did play. I like what we did with the bench but how much better is it than some of these other teams? Idk we will find out. This is a very young roster with 3 guys on it over the age of 30 and only Rush is likely to play any significant amount of games. I think we may need to temper our expectations some here. There are some other good teams out there that could take a step forward as well. A team could still add a solid player this offseason that could make a difference. The Wolves will have to play well to get into the playoffs but they also will have to have a couple teams falter. They could be a team that has an injury or can't quite put it all together. I'm just gonna enjoy the ride I think it's gonna be a fun year.

In my opinion KG was much better than Prince. KG had the best plus minus on the team and when he was healthy he still had a very good defensive impact and helped us to get off to a fast start. Prince looked like a shell of his former self, slow and very limited range and his plus minus was poor. I don't know if many of us expected much out of Pek. I know I didn't and its become clear he should retire.

Prince played 77 games and was a solid defender so I'm giving him the edge there from my perspective but yeah KG was really effective in his limited playing time in his 38 games so yeah I could go with that also. The point still is that things went bad last year its not going to be perfect this year either although I suppose it could...

I'll add that I do think the Wolves have a path to being a 50 or maybe even more wins. The problem is so do a bunch of other teams. There were only 2 teams with fewer wins than the wolves last year and as bad as things went for the Suns they won 6 fewer games than the Wolves. I think we all agree Utah is likely to make a jump this year and there are other teams with various types of talent vet and youth that could win a healthy chunk of games. Health is going to be a big factor.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

The Wolves have done more than just add Dunn. First of all, they've added Thibs, going from a poor head coach to one of the best in the League. Second, they're best young players from last year (KAT, Wiggins, KAT, Jones and Dieng) are at points in their careers where it's likely they will improve significantly from last season. Third, we've substantially upgraded our bench, not just with Dunn, but also with Aldrich, Rush and Hill. Those four additions represent a HUGE upgrade over last year's bench of Andre Miller, Tayshaun Prince and Rudez.

That's a lot of improvement to what was actually a near .500 team after the all-star break. So although there's merit to the suggestion we won't be as healthy as last season, I still see the combination of the huge coaching upgrade, significant improvement from within and major improvement to the bench taking this team to 45-50 wins provided that KAT is healthy throughout. I see this upcoming season as the sort of breakout season the Thunder had in Durant's 3rd season the Thunder went from 20 something wins to 50 wins.

Indeed. No reason it can't be us this year. OKC will be down, maybe the Duncan effect will limit the Spurs (not likely), Clips can't keep holding in this 3rd-4th best team, they're due for a dropoff. Utah and Memphis will be good again, but we can absolutely take that 4th spot.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

OKC is not a playoff team in my opinion. Where's the offense coming from outside of Westbrook? I don't see how they are that much better than the Sacramento's and NO's of the world with 1 great player on the team and not a ton of help. I just don't see nearly the offensive firepower needed to hang in the West.

GS
SA
LAC
Utah
Memphis
Portland
MN
Houston

[kekgeek]

The Wolves have done more than just add Dunn. First of all, they've added Thibs, going from a poor head coach to one of the best in the League. Second, they're best young players from last year (KAT, Wiggins, KAT, Jones and Dieng) are at points in their careers where it's likely they will improve significantly from last season. Third, we've substantially upgraded our bench, not just with Dunn, but also with Aldrich, Rush and Hill. Those four additions represent a HUGE upgrade over last year's bench of Andre Miller, Tayshaun Prince and Rudez.

That's a lot of improvement to what was actually a near .500 team after the all-star break. So although there's merit to the suggestion we won't be as healthy as last season, I still see the combination of the huge coaching upgrade, significant improvement from within and major improvement to the bench taking this team to 45-50 wins provided that KAT is healthy throughout. I see this upcoming season as the sort of breakout season the Thunder had in Durant's 3rd season the Thunder went from 20 something wins to 50 wins.

I'm gonna nitpick a little Lip. Miller when he played was pretty effective we just didn't play him much. Prince was fairly effective as well.

I think we all would agree this team has nice depth but we say that every year. A lot of us thought last year we were going to get something out of Pek KG and Martin and it turned out Prince was the most worthwhile vet on the team (Rubio would be more of a young vet). This other guys didn't even play a season's worth of games between them and KG was the only one of them that was effective when he did play. I like what we did with the bench but how much better is it than some of these other teams? Idk we will find out. This is a very young roster with 3 guys on it over the age of 30 and only Rush is likely to play any significant amount of games. I think we may need to temper our expectations some here. There are some other good teams out there that could take a step forward as well. A team could still add a solid player this offseason that could make a difference. The Wolves will have to play well to get into the playoffs but they also will have to have a couple teams falter. They could be a team that has an injury or can't quite put it all together. I'm just gonna enjoy the ride I think it's gonna be a fun year.

I agree with this take also. I am very happy we didn't add players for the money they were getting this offseason so in the end I am happy with the 3 guys that we added but I am still in wait and see how they do. I am going for the devils advocate play here, Cole just had his best year of his career and it came in a contract year, lets hope it was not a outline. We added Rush who played for the Warriors but lets see how he does when his teammates are not as deadly as the Warriors roster and shooters come to die in Minnesota. I like Hill a lot actually but we will see if he is motivated.

I go into every season liking the players we have added and see the players not live up to expectations like Budinger, Thad Young, Kmart, Brewer, Stiemsma, Mo Williams, Mike Miller. We will see how our new role players will preform when the are not playing with Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond and has Hill ever been on a good team (I don't know the answer). I just hope our young players can take the next step and enhance the play of our new role players.

I do think we should have the goal of playoffs but I think somewhere between 6-10 in the West is more realistic and fighting to be around .500 (What is disappointing in terms of us waiting another year)

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Thibs would be delighted by the cover he's being given by the low expectations in this thread. .500 next year? Unacceptable. You can't overlook the fact that they were 9-10, almost .500, over the last quarter of the season. Abe says it's a small sample size, and it is. But it's also 1/4 of KAT's career, so for him, that's a significant sample size. And since our team is so young and just learning to play in the NBA, it's reasonable to assume results from the last quarter of the season are much more meaningful than those from the first 3/4.

So, .500 the last quarter of the season as our teenagers learned the game, expected continued development from our under-25 guys, and the addition of great depth in Aldrich, Hill and Rush. And then everyone tells me that Thibs replacing Mitchell should add some wins. And still posters here are saying they would be content for the team to win at the same pace they did the last 1/4 of the year? Come on...we gotta think bigger than that!

I understand that injuries could torpedo any year, but let's not look at last year as an unusually good year...we ranked 17th in terms of games lost to injury last year, close to the middle of the pack, and much worse in terms of VORP lost to injury. We are as likely to have better injury results next year than worse. I'm not ready to give Thibs the pass you guys are willing to. If he really is a much better coach than Mitchell, this team needs to win close to 50 games this year.

[Lipoli390]

Thibs would be delighted by the cover he's being given by the low expectations in this thread. .500 next year? Unacceptable. You can't overlook the fact that they were 9-10, almost .500, over the last quarter of the season. Abe says it's a small sample size, and it is. But it's also 1/4 of KAT's career, so for him, that's a significant sample size. And since our team is so young and just learning to play in the NBA, it's reasonable to assume results from the last quarter of the season are much more meaningful than those from the first 3/4.

So, .500 the last quarter of the season as our teenagers learned the game, expected continued development from our under-25 guys, and the addition of great depth in Aldrich, Hill and Rush. And then everyone tells me that Thibs replacing Mitchell should add some wins. And still posters here are saying they would be content for the team to win at the same pace they did the last 1/4 of the year? Come on...we gotta think bigger than that!

I understand that injuries could torpedo any year, but let's not look at last year as an unusually good year...we ranked 17th in terms of games lost to injury last year, close to the middle of the pack, and much worse in terms of VORP lost to injury. We are as likely to have better injury results next year than worse. I'm not ready to give Thibs the pass you guys are willing to. If he really is a much better coach than Mitchell, this team needs to win close to 50 games this year.

Well said, LST. My thoughts exactly. Recall that among those late-season wins we beat a couple of very good, highly motivated teams in their buildings -- Warriors and Blazers. I admire the way Thibs uses the 29-win total to manage expectations, but that's not the starting point in my view.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Thibs would be delighted by the cover he's being given by the low expectations in this thread. .500 next year? Unacceptable. You can't overlook the fact that they were 9-10, almost .500, over the last quarter of the season. Abe says it's a small sample size, and it is. But it's also 1/4 of KAT's career, so for him, that's a significant sample size. And since our team is so young and just learning to play in the NBA, it's reasonable to assume results from the last quarter of the season are much more meaningful than those from the first 3/4.

So, .500 the last quarter of the season as our teenagers learned the game, expected continued development from our under-25 guys, and the addition of great depth in Aldrich, Hill and Rush. And then everyone tells me that Thibs replacing Mitchell should add some wins. And still posters here are saying they would be content for the team to win at the same pace they did the last 1/4 of the year? Come on...we gotta think bigger than that!

I understand that injuries could torpedo any year, but let's not look at last year as an unusually good year...we ranked 17th in terms of games lost to injury last year, close to the middle of the pack, and much worse in terms of VORP lost to injury. We are as likely to have better injury results next year than worse. I'm not ready to give Thibs the pass you guys are willing to. If he really is a much better coach than Mitchell, this team needs to win close to 50 games this year.

Well said, LST. My thoughts exactly. Recall that among those late-season wins we beat a couple of very good, highly motivated teams in their buildings -- Warriors and Blazers. I admire the way Thibs uses the 29-win total to manage expectations, but that's not the starting point in my view.

Not to mention a win against a motivated team in OkC that played Durant and Westbrook almost 40 minutes when a certain PG of ours who "can't shoot" hit a three at the buzzer!

This has been an interesting thread, because while my optimism level is very high, the thread also highlights how difficult it is to make the playoffs in the west. There are a lot of smart guys here, and here are the good teams at least one of us has missing the playoffs: New Orleans, Houston, Utah, Memphis, Portland and OkC. Put another way, if you think GS, SA and the Clippers are locks to make the playoffs, then two of NO, Houston, Utah, Memphis, Portland and OkC have to miss the playoffs for us to get in. I still think it's going to happen, but it's not going to be easy.

[Monster]

Thibs would be delighted by the cover he's being given by the low expectations in this thread. .500 next year? Unacceptable. You can't overlook the fact that they were 9-10, almost .500, over the last quarter of the season. Abe says it's a small sample size, and it is. But it's also 1/4 of KAT's career, so for him, that's a significant sample size. And since our team is so young and just learning to play in the NBA, it's reasonable to assume results from the last quarter of the season are much more meaningful than those from the first 3/4.

So, .500 the last quarter of the season as our teenagers learned the game, expected continued development from our under-25 guys, and the addition of great depth in Aldrich, Hill and Rush. And then everyone tells me that Thibs replacing Mitchell should add some wins. And still posters here are saying they would be content for the team to win at the same pace they did the last 1/4 of the year? Come on...we gotta think bigger than that!

I understand that injuries could torpedo any year, but let's not look at last year as an unusually good year...we ranked 17th in terms of games lost to injury last year, close to the middle of the pack, and much worse in terms of VORP lost to injury. We are as likely to have better injury results next year than worse. I'm not ready to give Thibs the pass you guys are willing to. If he really is a much better coach than Mitchell, this team needs to win close to 50 games this year.

Well said, LST. My thoughts exactly. Recall that among those late-season wins we beat a couple of very good, highly motivated teams in their buildings -- Warriors and Blazers. I admire the way Thibs uses the 29-win total to manage expectations, but that's not the starting point in my view.

Not to mention a win against a motivated team in OkC that played Durant and Westbrook almost 40 minutes when a certain PG of ours who "can't shoot" hit a three at the buzzer!

This has been an interesting thread, because while my optimism level is very high, the thread also highlights how difficult it is to make the playoffs in the west. There are a lot of smart guys here, and here are the good teams at least one of us has missing the playoffs: New Orleans, Houston, Utah, Memphis, Portland and OkC. Put another way, if you think GS, SA and the Clippers are locks to make the playoffs, then two of NO, Houston, Utah, Memphis, Portland and OkC have to miss the playoffs for us to get in. I still think it's going to happen, but it's not going to be easy.

Just to clarify the Wolves expectations should be playoffs. I certainly want to see it happen and I feel relatively good about their chances this year. It's not some moderate pipe dream where everything has to go their way to get in. However I'm living in reality. There are other teams out there with talent and good coaching too. For example Sacramento has the coach that got Memphis to the playoffs with a chunk of the season where they were playing backups and sometimes d-league guys significant minutes. There are some other teams that if things go well for them could be good and some like Memphis could even be really good. I'm really hoping and sort of expecting the playoffs. I also see it's realistically quite possible the Wolves don't make it even if they take a good step forward and I don't think it will completely soul crushing for me if they only end up around .500 and miss the playoffs.

[kekgeek]

I also agree that the expectations should be playoffs and everyone brings up we went 9-10 but look who we beat OKC, Portland and Golden State are all awesome wins but then look we beat Kings twice without cousins, the grizzlies without Conley, Randolph and gasol beat pelicans without Davis, Evans and Gordon, beat the suns who was the fourth worst team in the NBA and a non-playoff team in the wizards.

Playoffs should be the expectations but west is so darn good and we have to make a big jump in wins to make the playoffs

[Coolbreeze44]

Thibs would be delighted by the cover he's being given by the low expectations in this thread. .500 next year? Unacceptable. You can't overlook the fact that they were 9-10, almost .500, over the last quarter of the season. Abe says it's a small sample size, and it is. But it's also 1/4 of KAT's career, so for him, that's a significant sample size. And since our team is so young and just learning to play in the NBA, it's reasonable to assume results from the last quarter of the season are much more meaningful than those from the first 3/4.

So, .500 the last quarter of the season as our teenagers learned the game, expected continued development from our under-25 guys, and the addition of great depth in Aldrich, Hill and Rush. And then everyone tells me that Thibs replacing Mitchell should add some wins. And still posters here are saying they would be content for the team to win at the same pace they did the last 1/4 of the year? Come on...we gotta think bigger than that!

I understand that injuries could torpedo any year, but let's not look at last year as an unusually good year...we ranked 17th in terms of games lost to injury last year, close to the middle of the pack, and much worse in terms of VORP lost to injury. We are as likely to have better injury results next year than worse. I'm not ready to give Thibs the pass you guys are willing to. If he really is a much better coach than Mitchell, this team needs to win close to 50 games this year.

I'm with you here LST. I don't like the tenor of the conversation that's starting to permeate these threads:

- The West is too tough

- We can't expect to stay as healthy this year

- We're too young

- Can't expect a huge jump

The apologies are lining up and the season hasn't started yet. I've been saying for quite a while that this is a process and we need to have patience. But the next step in the process is to make a huge leap, following the standard OKC set several years ago. If our players and coach is as good as we think they are, there is no reason we can't win 50 games. If we don't at least play .500 ball, then I would question our personnel and head coach.