Wolves vs Celtics (No Irving, Covington, Rose or Teague)

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

To Hicks question earlier.....DeRozan is the closest guy I can think of that got starter minutes from day one, scored in volume pretty early, and then took a fairly significant (but not huge) leap in Year 7. Years 7-9 are without question his best seasons after being fairly level and inefficient as a volume shooter from years 1-6.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I love this conversation. Steve Nash didn't average double figures until his 5th year in the league at the age of 26. He didn't do too badly after that. Paul Westphal didn't average double figures until he was 25. As a 24 year old playing 38 minutes per game, Jimmy Butler averaged 13 points. Alex English didn't become a starter in the NBA until he was 28 years old. Doug Christie struggled greatly until he was 26. John Starks became a regular starter at the age of 28. Detlef Schrempf didn't blossom until he was 27. Sam Cassell didn't score in double figures until he was 26. It wasn't until his 5th team at the age of 26 that Chauncey Billups became a star. Gary Payton never averaged 20 points until he was 26.

- Westphal was basically the same player. He simply got more minutes in Phoenix and it continued a gradual progression of improvement that he showed each of his first 6 seasons in the league. His PER went up fro 14.2 to 16.1 to 17.3 to 19.9 to 21.4 to 23.8... that's all pretty much normal and the way it usually works. Consider...

- English had a very similar trajectory... 14.8 to 17.4 to 17.6 to 18.0 to 19.7 to 22.2 to 24.1.

- Schrempf followed a similar trajectory... 10.9 to 13.7 to 14.2 to 15.3 to 17. 6 to 18.6 to 19.5.

- Sam Cassell followed a similar trajectory... 13.1 to 15.9 to 16.8 to 18.4 to 21.0 to 23.1.

- Gary Payton followed a similar trajectory... 13.2 dropped to 13.1 to 17.0 to 17.8 to 21.3. (what's crazy about Payton is how unfavorable DBPM treats what we considered one of the premier perimeter defenders of his era... it's basically average.)

- Even Doug Christie mostly follows a similar arc... 12.4 to 13.5 to... (-3.7 over 12 games after lading with the Knicks) to 15.1 to 16.2 to 16.9.

- John Starks even showed modest improvement... 10.3 to 14.3 to 16.4... and then he leveled off, hovering around the league average for his career and ending up at 14.0 PER. He generally remained a + player with a + VORP for about a decade. As a former CBA who was never even drafted... not bad.

- Jimmy Butler had one blip season (offensively) in his 3rd season and first as a starter when his shooting dipped and PER dipped. But, that's also the season that put him on the map defensively... it was his best season defensively... so his VORP actually improved... 0.1 to 2.1 to 2.9 to 4.2 in his first All Star season.

- As noted, Billups is sort of an anomaly, but not entirely. He did show improvement. 13.6 PER to 15.1 dropped to 10.5 (only 13 games) to 14.1 to 17.6 to 20.4 while bouncing among 5 different teams in his first 6 seasons.

- Steve Nash is bit of an outlier. 10.8 PER to 15.6 dropped to 10.9 (new team) to 13.5 to 19.6 to 20.7 to 22.6. Even while shooting an unimaginable 36% from the field in Year 3 during the lockout season, he had a positive VORP.

_____________

Now if we compare those guys to Wiggins PER: 13.9 to 16.5 to 16.5 to 13.0 to 12.2. Wiggins has also had a negative VORP for 5 seasons now, meaning statistically, he was worse than a random replacement player. What about the other guys... did they have any negative VORP seasons?

Steve Nash as a rookie.
Schrempf as a rookie.
English as a rookie.
Christie over a 12 game season.
Billups over a 13 game season.

Wiggins has already matched all of those players in his first 5 seasons.

_______________

So while I agree that some guys improve later in their careers. And that a new coach... or more likely... new organization... can change things. There simply isn't a lot of precedent I can think of for someone who's had Wiggins' career suddenly turning it around to any significant degree.

To add to that... I don't know how much stock any of you put into it... but I think it's very important -- Wiggins has already been paid. All of those other guys were trying to find themselves in the NBA so they could make the big bucks. Most of them were traded. Many of them multiple times. Eventually, each became successful to varying degrees... how much of that was motivation for a big payday (or even an NBA job).

Yes, a lot of "late bloomers" were quietly productive players that simply didn't get a lot of minutes or weren't featured a bunch at first.

Mike Conley is a guy that was given a starting role and lots of minutes at first and truly took some time to develop into a great point guard (may be by about year 6). Again though, his initial floor wasn't that bad. He was pretty OK as a rookie and then just gradually got better and better and better.

[Coolbreeze44]

I love this conversation. Steve Nash didn't average double figures until his 5th year in the league at the age of 26. He didn't do too badly after that. Paul Westphal didn't average double figures until he was 25. As a 24 year old playing 38 minutes per game, Jimmy Butler averaged 13 points. Alex English didn't become a starter in the NBA until he was 28 years old. Doug Christie struggled greatly until he was 26. John Starks became a regular starter at the age of 28. Detlef Schrempf didn't blossom until he was 27. Sam Cassell didn't score in double figures until he was 26. It wasn't until his 5th team at the age of 26 that Chauncey Billups became a star. Gary Payton never averaged 20 points until he was 26.

I think the thing that is VERY different in this conversation is that many of these guys developed exponentially once they got a grip in NBA, and most importantly, were given high level minutes (after beginning careers as backups). The issue with Wiggins is that he has averaged starter minutes the instant he stepped into the NBA. Despite the minutes, the coaching, the practice, the games, he isn't getting better.

Interested.....are there any examples of players that played as much as Wiggins in first 5 seasons, and then all the sudden jumped in statistics in later 20's or something? Would be interested in examples.

Some of these guys hadn't earned minutes early in their careers. Wig was the rookie of the year. And it's not that Wig didn't have the stats, he's averaged over 23 points in this league. I agree he hasn't gotten better, in fact I think he's gotten worse.

[Coolbreeze44]

I love this conversation. Steve Nash didn't average double figures until his 5th year in the league at the age of 26. He didn't do too badly after that. Paul Westphal didn't average double figures until he was 25. As a 24 year old playing 38 minutes per game, Jimmy Butler averaged 13 points. Alex English didn't become a starter in the NBA until he was 28 years old. Doug Christie struggled greatly until he was 26. John Starks became a regular starter at the age of 28. Detlef Schrempf didn't blossom until he was 27. Sam Cassell didn't score in double figures until he was 26. It wasn't until his 5th team at the age of 26 that Chauncey Billups became a star. Gary Payton never averaged 20 points until he was 26.

- Westphal was basically the same player. He simply got more minutes in Phoenix and it continued a gradual progression of improvement that he showed each of his first 6 seasons in the league. His PER went up fro 14.2 to 16.1 to 17.3 to 19.9 to 21.4 to 23.8... that's all pretty much normal and the way it usually works. Consider...

- English had a very similar trajectory... 14.8 to 17.4 to 17.6 to 18.0 to 19.7 to 22.2 to 24.1.

- Schrempf followed a similar trajectory... 10.9 to 13.7 to 14.2 to 15.3 to 17. 6 to 18.6 to 19.5.

- Sam Cassell followed a similar trajectory... 13.1 to 15.9 to 16.8 to 18.4 to 21.0 to 23.1.

- Gary Payton followed a similar trajectory... 13.2 dropped to 13.1 to 17.0 to 17.8 to 21.3. (what's crazy about Payton is how unfavorable DBPM treats what we considered one of the premier perimeter defenders of his era... it's basically average.)

- Even Doug Christie mostly follows a similar arc... 12.4 to 13.5 to... (-3.7 over 12 games after lading with the Knicks) to 15.1 to 16.2 to 16.9.

- John Starks even showed modest improvement... 10.3 to 14.3 to 16.4... and then he leveled off, hovering around the league average for his career and ending up at 14.0 PER. He generally remained a + player with a + VORP for about a decade. As a former CBA who was never even drafted... not bad.

- Jimmy Butler had one blip season (offensively) in his 3rd season and first as a starter when his shooting dipped and PER dipped. But, that's also the season that put him on the map defensively... it was his best season defensively... so his VORP actually improved... 0.1 to 2.1 to 2.9 to 4.2 in his first All Star season.

- As noted, Billups is sort of an anomaly, but not entirely. He did show improvement. 13.6 PER to 15.1 dropped to 10.5 (only 13 games) to 14.1 to 17.6 to 20.4 while bouncing among 5 different teams in his first 6 seasons.

- Steve Nash is bit of an outlier. 10.8 PER to 15.6 dropped to 10.9 (new team) to 13.5 to 19.6 to 20.7 to 22.6. Even while shooting an unimaginable 36% from the field in Year 3 during the lockout season, he had a positive VORP.

_____________

Now if we compare those guys to Wiggins PER: 13.9 to 16.5 to 16.5 to 13.0 to 12.2. Wiggins has also had a negative VORP for 5 seasons now, meaning statistically, he was worse than a random replacement player. What about the other guys... did they have any negative VORP seasons?

Steve Nash as a rookie.
Schrempf as a rookie.
English as a rookie.
Christie over a 12 game season.
Billups over a 13 game season.

Wiggins has already matched all of those players in his first 5 seasons.

_______________

So while I agree that some guys improve later in their careers. And that a new coach... or more likely... new organization... can change things. There simply isn't a lot of precedent I can think of for someone who's had Wiggins' career suddenly turning it around to any significant degree.

To add to that... I don't know how much stock any of you put into it... but I think it's very important -- Wiggins has already been paid. All of those other guys were trying to find themselves in the NBA so they could make the big bucks. Most of them were traded. Many of them multiple times. Eventually, each became successful to varying degrees... how much of that was motivation for a big payday (or even an NBA job).

This is all great, but i didn't bring up Wiggins and my post had nothing to do with him. I was simply arguing against the idea that guys don't become late bloomers. They certainly have, can, and do.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I love this conversation. Steve Nash didn't average double figures until his 5th year in the league at the age of 26. He didn't do too badly after that. Paul Westphal didn't average double figures until he was 25. As a 24 year old playing 38 minutes per game, Jimmy Butler averaged 13 points. Alex English didn't become a starter in the NBA until he was 28 years old. Doug Christie struggled greatly until he was 26. John Starks became a regular starter at the age of 28. Detlef Schrempf didn't blossom until he was 27. Sam Cassell didn't score in double figures until he was 26. It wasn't until his 5th team at the age of 26 that Chauncey Billups became a star. Gary Payton never averaged 20 points until he was 26.

- Westphal was basically the same player. He simply got more minutes in Phoenix and it continued a gradual progression of improvement that he showed each of his first 6 seasons in the league. His PER went up fro 14.2 to 16.1 to 17.3 to 19.9 to 21.4 to 23.8... that's all pretty much normal and the way it usually works. Consider...

- English had a very similar trajectory... 14.8 to 17.4 to 17.6 to 18.0 to 19.7 to 22.2 to 24.1.

- Schrempf followed a similar trajectory... 10.9 to 13.7 to 14.2 to 15.3 to 17. 6 to 18.6 to 19.5.

- Sam Cassell followed a similar trajectory... 13.1 to 15.9 to 16.8 to 18.4 to 21.0 to 23.1.

- Gary Payton followed a similar trajectory... 13.2 dropped to 13.1 to 17.0 to 17.8 to 21.3. (what's crazy about Payton is how unfavorable DBPM treats what we considered one of the premier perimeter defenders of his era... it's basically average.)

- Even Doug Christie mostly follows a similar arc... 12.4 to 13.5 to... (-3.7 over 12 games after lading with the Knicks) to 15.1 to 16.2 to 16.9.

- John Starks even showed modest improvement... 10.3 to 14.3 to 16.4... and then he leveled off, hovering around the league average for his career and ending up at 14.0 PER. He generally remained a + player with a + VORP for about a decade. As a former CBA who was never even drafted... not bad.

- Jimmy Butler had one blip season (offensively) in his 3rd season and first as a starter when his shooting dipped and PER dipped. But, that's also the season that put him on the map defensively... it was his best season defensively... so his VORP actually improved... 0.1 to 2.1 to 2.9 to 4.2 in his first All Star season.

- As noted, Billups is sort of an anomaly, but not entirely. He did show improvement. 13.6 PER to 15.1 dropped to 10.5 (only 13 games) to 14.1 to 17.6 to 20.4 while bouncing among 5 different teams in his first 6 seasons.

- Steve Nash is bit of an outlier. 10.8 PER to 15.6 dropped to 10.9 (new team) to 13.5 to 19.6 to 20.7 to 22.6. Even while shooting an unimaginable 36% from the field in Year 3 during the lockout season, he had a positive VORP.

_____________

Now if we compare those guys to Wiggins PER: 13.9 to 16.5 to 16.5 to 13.0 to 12.2. Wiggins has also had a negative VORP for 5 seasons now, meaning statistically, he was worse than a random replacement player. What about the other guys... did they have any negative VORP seasons?

Steve Nash as a rookie.
Schrempf as a rookie.
English as a rookie.
Christie over a 12 game season.
Billups over a 13 game season.

Wiggins has already matched all of those players in his first 5 seasons.

_______________

So while I agree that some guys improve later in their careers. And that a new coach... or more likely... new organization... can change things. There simply isn't a lot of precedent I can think of for someone who's had Wiggins' career suddenly turning it around to any significant degree.

To add to that... I don't know how much stock any of you put into it... but I think it's very important -- Wiggins has already been paid. All of those other guys were trying to find themselves in the NBA so they could make the big bucks. Most of them were traded. Many of them multiple times. Eventually, each became successful to varying degrees... how much of that was motivation for a big payday (or even an NBA job).

This is all great, but i didn't bring up Wiggins and my post had nothing to do with him. I was simply arguing against the idea that guys don't become late bloomers. They certainly have, can, and do.

WolvesFan and I had already made this discussion about Wiggins. That's literally how it came up.

And considering the Wolves + Wiggins are tied together for up to 4 more seasons... I found it to be entirely relevant.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

How about going from awful to great in the course of three seasons? I give you Domantas Sabonis.

Rookie year PER/WS48/VORP: 6.9/.022/-1.2
2nd Year: 17.5/.126/.8
This year: 23.8/.230/1.5

That's crazy.

[thedoper]

Kemba Walker is a more recent example of a late bloomer. I'd love to put everything into trying to get that guy right now.

[Coolbreeze44]

I love this conversation. Steve Nash didn't average double figures until his 5th year in the league at the age of 26. He didn't do too badly after that. Paul Westphal didn't average double figures until he was 25. As a 24 year old playing 38 minutes per game, Jimmy Butler averaged 13 points. Alex English didn't become a starter in the NBA until he was 28 years old. Doug Christie struggled greatly until he was 26. John Starks became a regular starter at the age of 28. Detlef Schrempf didn't blossom until he was 27. Sam Cassell didn't score in double figures until he was 26. It wasn't until his 5th team at the age of 26 that Chauncey Billups became a star. Gary Payton never averaged 20 points until he was 26.

- Westphal was basically the same player. He simply got more minutes in Phoenix and it continued a gradual progression of improvement that he showed each of his first 6 seasons in the league. His PER went up fro 14.2 to 16.1 to 17.3 to 19.9 to 21.4 to 23.8... that's all pretty much normal and the way it usually works. Consider...

- English had a very similar trajectory... 14.8 to 17.4 to 17.6 to 18.0 to 19.7 to 22.2 to 24.1.

- Schrempf followed a similar trajectory... 10.9 to 13.7 to 14.2 to 15.3 to 17. 6 to 18.6 to 19.5.

- Sam Cassell followed a similar trajectory... 13.1 to 15.9 to 16.8 to 18.4 to 21.0 to 23.1.

- Gary Payton followed a similar trajectory... 13.2 dropped to 13.1 to 17.0 to 17.8 to 21.3. (what's crazy about Payton is how unfavorable DBPM treats what we considered one of the premier perimeter defenders of his era... it's basically average.)

- Even Doug Christie mostly follows a similar arc... 12.4 to 13.5 to... (-3.7 over 12 games after lading with the Knicks) to 15.1 to 16.2 to 16.9.

- John Starks even showed modest improvement... 10.3 to 14.3 to 16.4... and then he leveled off, hovering around the league average for his career and ending up at 14.0 PER. He generally remained a + player with a + VORP for about a decade. As a former CBA who was never even drafted... not bad.

- Jimmy Butler had one blip season (offensively) in his 3rd season and first as a starter when his shooting dipped and PER dipped. But, that's also the season that put him on the map defensively... it was his best season defensively... so his VORP actually improved... 0.1 to 2.1 to 2.9 to 4.2 in his first All Star season.

- As noted, Billups is sort of an anomaly, but not entirely. He did show improvement. 13.6 PER to 15.1 dropped to 10.5 (only 13 games) to 14.1 to 17.6 to 20.4 while bouncing among 5 different teams in his first 6 seasons.

- Steve Nash is bit of an outlier. 10.8 PER to 15.6 dropped to 10.9 (new team) to 13.5 to 19.6 to 20.7 to 22.6. Even while shooting an unimaginable 36% from the field in Year 3 during the lockout season, he had a positive VORP.

_____________

Now if we compare those guys to Wiggins PER: 13.9 to 16.5 to 16.5 to 13.0 to 12.2. Wiggins has also had a negative VORP for 5 seasons now, meaning statistically, he was worse than a random replacement player. What about the other guys... did they have any negative VORP seasons?

Steve Nash as a rookie.
Schrempf as a rookie.
English as a rookie.
Christie over a 12 game season.
Billups over a 13 game season.

Wiggins has already matched all of those players in his first 5 seasons.

_______________

So while I agree that some guys improve later in their careers. And that a new coach... or more likely... new organization... can change things. There simply isn't a lot of precedent I can think of for someone who's had Wiggins' career suddenly turning it around to any significant degree.

To add to that... I don't know how much stock any of you put into it... but I think it's very important -- Wiggins has already been paid. All of those other guys were trying to find themselves in the NBA so they could make the big bucks. Most of them were traded. Many of them multiple times. Eventually, each became successful to varying degrees... how much of that was motivation for a big payday (or even an NBA job).

This is all great, but i didn't bring up Wiggins and my post had nothing to do with him. I was simply arguing against the idea that guys don't become late bloomers. They certainly have, can, and do.

WolvesFan and I had already made this discussion about Wiggins. That's literally how it came up.

And considering the Wolves + Wiggins are tied together for up to 4 more seasons... I found it to be entirely relevant.

I understand where you are coming from and the relevance as you see it, but i simply wanted to add to the mention of Lowry some other players who weren't instant sensations. My every post isn't tied to the hip of Wiggins. If you want to be technical, Wig was an instant sensation. Rookie of the year and young stars MVP. He really doesn't fit with the guys i brought up.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Kemba Walker is a more recent example of a late bloomer. I'd love to put everything into trying to get that guy right now.

Yeah, kind of like DeRozan he took a few years to become an efficient scorer. He made his jump in that department in Year 5 - a big jump in fact - and hasn't really looked back since then.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Way off track now, but what about guys in their prime taking big dips? Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are both having pretty damn bad years by their standards. I have to believe four straight Finals appearances and all the pressure and minutes that comes with it is starting to take its toll on that squad....tough to keep your edge.