Camden wrote:lipoli390 wrote:The way I see it, Jimmy's trade value is as high as it's going to be and I see three viable trade partners: Miami, Philly and Houston. My sense is that the following are the best deals would could expect with each right now:
1. Houston - Butler for 4 first round lottery-protected picks, Eric Gordon and Chriss.
2. Miami - Butler for Richardson, Adebayo, Waiters & Miami's 2019 protected 1st rd pk
3. Philly - Butler for Covington, Muscala, Philly's 2019 1st rd pk, Chicago's 2019 2nd rd pk & Miami's 2021 unprotected first rd pk.
There are arguments for all three of these over the other two. But I see the Philly deal as the best bet
The Houston deal makes less sense for Minnesota when you add protections. The gamble worth taking is that the Rockets are going to be a bottom-10 team in the league in four-to-seven years from now. Allowing the Rockets to throw any protections on their picks is letting them off the hook.
Your proposed Miami deal is what I've had in mind since the beginning except I would not take back Dion Wiaters. That's a deal-killer for me. I'd be interested in taking back Tyler Johnson due to his productivity and even-keeled personality.
Lastly, I'm not sure what there is to get excited about with that Philadelphia deal. Perhaps the unprotected first-round pick, but that's a big gamble.
Cam -
No doubt in my mind that Tyler Johnson would be a better player for us than Waiters. But with the trade kicker he'd be almost $10 million more expensive next season and it would be very hard to stay under the luxury tax threshold, I'd say impossible, unless Teague opted out. On the other hand, Johnson has only one more year on his contract after this season compared to two more years for Waiters.
I wouldn't even consider the Houston deal unless all 4 picks are unprotected for two reasons. First, as you stated, because the value of the Houston deal is in the gamble that the Rockets will be a bottom 10 team for the last two of four picks - and maybe even sooner with injuries. Second, under the CBA, the total number of picks we actually get goes down for every pick that doesn't transfer. So if two lottery-protected picks ended up in the lottery, we'd end up only getting two picks in the deal - both of them likely in the 20s. With Houston, it's all about the picks because they have no youngish talent they would/could include who would add significant value as part of a longer-term strategy to re-tool around KAT and Okogie (Wiggins?).
There are three keys to the value of the Philly deal:
1. Covington - Covington is a hell of a two-way player and very good 3-point shooter. He's the closest thing to providing what we get from Jimmy although obviously not at Butler's level. Yet, he's a better 3-point shooter than Butler. He's not ideal from an age perspective, but he is almost 2 years younger than Butler with less mileage and therefore has a trajectory that better melds with our younger core.
2. Picks - The deal I hypothesize would include 2 first round picks and what will likely be a high second round pick from Chicago. The Philly pick will likely be in the mid 20s, but Embiid is a major injury waiting to happen. There's a decent chance Embiid and Butler could miss a lot of games, which could put that 2019 1st rd pick in the teens. The Miami pick is unprotected and we would get it two years from now, so the player we get with that pick could develop and grow throughout the bulk of KAT's contract. The Chicago pick will probably be in the 31-35 range, which is just about as good as having a pick in the high 20s. That's three quality draft picks. So the overall pick value isn't much less than the Houston deal -- 3 rather than 4, but get them sooner and no risk of losing any of them under CBA rules.
3. Salary Cap - The Philly deal would be very cap friendly for the Wolves. Covington's salary is half of Butler's current salary and Muscala's contract expires the end of this season.
