monsterpile wrote:Let's say the best deal you can get is the Waiters Richardson 1st round pick deal. What could Miami do to sweeten that deal? 2nd round picks? Well...we have theirs next year. From now will a top 55 protected pick in 2024 they only own 1 of their 2nd round picks. A future 1st round is a ways off so I can understand Miami being hesitant to deal a pick that's years down the road. It feels like the Wolves absolutely need more than that deal unless you have believe Richardson is gonna be an Otto porter level player and maybe you can actually squeeze some worthwhile play out of Waiters during the contract. Lots of ifs there for paying those 2 guys a total of around 23 million each of the next 2 years after this one.
Thibs isn't dealing Taj in this deal and i don't think it does much for Miami anyway. They already have a bunch of bigs. I don't think the value of trading Taj helps us get something worthwhile in this deal kinda like us getting Olynyk back helps us that much more than Waiters since the Heat likely value Olynyk and he also makes more money that Waiters. Again why do we have to be a dumping ground for Riley's mistake? We need to be compensated for that when we have by far the best asset.
Monster - You might be right that Thibs wouldn't deal Taj. If so, that's just another reason to fire Thibodeau. I love Taj, but he's simply not a key part of this team over the long haul and if trading him can help get a reasonable Butler deal, then he absolutely should be included in the deal. Would he do much for Miami? Yes, if you assume as I do that we get Bam in the deal. Look at how many minutes Bam got last season -- about 22. Maybe James Johnson gets those minutes, but Taj is better and more likely to stay healthy. He would clearly have significant value to a Miami playoff push playing 22 minutes a game for the Heat. And he is also Pat's kind of player. But even if Riley doesn't think Taj would help a lot, that's not the point. The point of including Taj is as a salary-match alternative to Gorgui. If reports are true that Gorgui's value is a negative 2 first round picks, or convervatively 1 such pick, then including Gorgui in the deal would likely be a nonstarter for Miami, which is essentially what's been reported. Taj provides much better production than Gorgui and does so without the ugly long-term contract. In other words, Gorgui has substantial negative trade value while Taj at worst has absolutely no negative value and likely has at least some positive value.
For salary-match purposes we're going to have to take bad salary back in any deal for Richardson. That's because all of the players with salaries to match are on what most would consider relatively bad contracts. Olynyk is the only player who MIGHT be worth his contract, but Riley's not going to give him up. I don't particularly like T. Johnson's contract, but it's only two years with the possibility he could opt out after 1 year and he's a player who can hit threes, handle the ball and actually contribute something positive to the Wolves while here. That's why I think the deal to do at this point would be Butler and Taj for Richardson, Bam, Tyler Johnson and Miami's pick. I'd actually be willing to forgoe the pick in that deal, but I'd insist on it and think we could get it. It might be useful in moving Gorgui's contract next summer.
Lip we agree that trading Gibson for value makes sense. I'm not looking to deal him as a throw in you aren't either. Where we differ is how much value he would bring back in this Miami deal. Neither of us really know but thinking about Moving Taj is interesting.
As for your proposed deal it sounds interesting then you start thinking about the salaries of guys the Heat can send back in all of these deals and it gets less exciting. We both like Tyler johnson but with his trade kicker that pushed his money up to nearly 22 million for the next season. That means this deal with Bam adds over 36 million in salary for 2019...without crunching some numbers (ok my quick spreadsheet says 143 million) and if Teague opts in and we can't find some that wants him (I think he could be moved but it's not a certainty)...that's gotta be some serious lux tax and no way Glen is gonna let you add anyone other than vet min guys and quite frankly so wouldn't blame him. That addition of salary should be a significant consideration when looking at this deal.
Monster, how did you come up with that 143 million? Did you forget to takeoff the salaries would be sending out?
SJM - Monster can answer for himself, but I can say he's not far off. I calculated about $135 million -- adding the three salaries we'd be getting, including the $22 million Tyler Johnson contract. We'd still have the salaries of Gorgui, Wiggins, Towns and Teague. Then you did in salaries of Patton, Tyus Jones, Okogie and KDB. When it all gets added together it came to $135 million. Now that I think about it, I forgot to include the additional salary from our own 1st rd pk., not to mention any pick we were to get from Miami. So it's pretty bad as Monster was pointing out.
My numbers aren't perfect but Lip points out reasons why they will actually be even more challenging than what I had. My numbers have a vet min contract for every roster spot that isn't filled. So take off one of those and save less that 2 million. Like Lip said you have the Wolves first round pick and if we get a pick from the Heat you have that money too. Remember these numbers include no money for Tyus. Also Aldrich counts for 600,000 towards the cap but at least Martin is gone! Lol
monsterpile wrote:Let's say the best deal you can get is the Waiters Richardson 1st round pick deal. What could Miami do to sweeten that deal? 2nd round picks? Well...we have theirs next year. From now will a top 55 protected pick in 2024 they only own 1 of their 2nd round picks. A future 1st round is a ways off so I can understand Miami being hesitant to deal a pick that's years down the road. It feels like the Wolves absolutely need more than that deal unless you have believe Richardson is gonna be an Otto porter level player and maybe you can actually squeeze some worthwhile play out of Waiters during the contract. Lots of ifs there for paying those 2 guys a total of around 23 million each of the next 2 years after this one.
Thibs isn't dealing Taj in this deal and i don't think it does much for Miami anyway. They already have a bunch of bigs. I don't think the value of trading Taj helps us get something worthwhile in this deal kinda like us getting Olynyk back helps us that much more than Waiters since the Heat likely value Olynyk and he also makes more money that Waiters. Again why do we have to be a dumping ground for Riley's mistake? We need to be compensated for that when we have by far the best asset.
Monster - You might be right that Thibs wouldn't deal Taj. If so, that's just another reason to fire Thibodeau. I love Taj, but he's simply not a key part of this team over the long haul and if trading him can help get a reasonable Butler deal, then he absolutely should be included in the deal. Would he do much for Miami? Yes, if you assume as I do that we get Bam in the deal. Look at how many minutes Bam got last season -- about 22. Maybe James Johnson gets those minutes, but Taj is better and more likely to stay healthy. He would clearly have significant value to a Miami playoff push playing 22 minutes a game for the Heat. And he is also Pat's kind of player. But even if Riley doesn't think Taj would help a lot, that's not the point. The point of including Taj is as a salary-match alternative to Gorgui. If reports are true that Gorgui's value is a negative 2 first round picks, or convervatively 1 such pick, then including Gorgui in the deal would likely be a nonstarter for Miami, which is essentially what's been reported. Taj provides much better production than Gorgui and does so without the ugly long-term contract. In other words, Gorgui has substantial negative trade value while Taj at worst has absolutely no negative value and likely has at least some positive value.
For salary-match purposes we're going to have to take bad salary back in any deal for Richardson. That's because all of the players with salaries to match are on what most would consider relatively bad contracts. Olynyk is the only player who MIGHT be worth his contract, but Riley's not going to give him up. I don't particularly like T. Johnson's contract, but it's only two years with the possibility he could opt out after 1 year and he's a player who can hit threes, handle the ball and actually contribute something positive to the Wolves while here. That's why I think the deal to do at this point would be Butler and Taj for Richardson, Bam, Tyler Johnson and Miami's pick. I'd actually be willing to forgoe the pick in that deal, but I'd insist on it and think we could get it. It might be useful in moving Gorgui's contract next summer.
Lip we agree that trading Gibson for value makes sense. I'm not looking to deal him as a throw in you aren't either. Where we differ is how much value he would bring back in this Miami deal. Neither of us really know but thinking about Moving Taj is interesting.
As for your proposed deal it sounds interesting then you start thinking about the salaries of guys the Heat can send back in all of these deals and it gets less exciting. We both like Tyler johnson but with his trade kicker that pushed his money up to nearly 22 million for the next season. That means this deal with Bam adds over 36 million in salary for 2019...without crunching some numbers (ok my quick spreadsheet says 143 million) and if Teague opts in and we can't find some that wants him (I think he could be moved but it's not a certainty)...that's gotta be some serious lux tax and no way Glen is gonna let you add anyone other than vet min guys and quite frankly so wouldn't blame him. That addition of salary should be a significant consideration when looking at this deal.
Monster, how did you come up with that 143 million? Did you forget to takeoff the salaries would be sending out?
SJM - Monster can answer for himself, but I can say he's not far off. I calculated about $135 million -- adding the three salaries we'd be getting, including the $22 million Tyler Johnson contract. We'd still have the salaries of Gorgui, Wiggins, Towns and Teague. Then you did in salaries of Patton, Tyus Jones, Okogie and KDB. When it all gets added together it came to $135 million. Now that I think about it, I forgot to include the additional salary from our own 1st rd pk., not to mention any pick we were to get from Miami. So it's pretty bad as Monster was pointing out.
My numbers aren't perfect but Lip points out reasons why they will actually be even more challenging than what I had. My numbers have a vet min contract for every roster spot that isn't filled. So take off one of those and save less that 2 million. Like Lip said you have the Wolves first round pick and if we get a pick from the Heat you have that money too. Remember these numbers include no money for Tyus. Also Aldrich counts for 600,000 towards the cap but at least Martin is gone! Lol
I actually included Tyus at the qualifying offer level of around $3.5 million, which is probably realistic if not a bit high. But the overall picture is clear, a Butler trade that included Taj while bringing back Tyler Johnson or Whiteside would likely put the Wolves over the luxury tax threshold by at least $10 million unless Teague opted out or the Wolves were somehow able to trade Gorgui without taking comparable salary back in return. It would be dicey. Of course, we'd be in the same financial situation if we kept Butler and gave him the max extension it would take to keep him. It's legitimate to ask whether that would be a smart thing to do because so far it doesn't appear as if Butler can be counted on to take this team beyond gather bottom half of the playoff teams in the West.
Lip it's simple...the difference in paying lux tax with Butler as opposed to paying guys fluke Tyler Johnson and Richardson the same money is...you have some sort of chance to be a contender or win some playoff series. But that's for one year. I was hoping we could keep butler for less than the absolute most money he could get and not for 5 years. Bobby Marks on wolfson's Podcast broke down what the Wolves could have done with renegotiation in 2017. I can't blame the Wolves for not wanting to do that then but maybe Butler isn't just talking about money this year but the previous season when they could have very easily taken care of him even without signing guys like Taj and Teague. If so his comments with Racheal Nichols about Thibs being his guy and he would stay because of him being with Thibs etc make a little more sense. Anyway, that's kinda off in the weeds with water under the bridge but anyhow...
monsterpile wrote:Lip it's simple...the difference in paying lux tax with Butler as opposed to paying guys fluke Tyler Johnson and Richardson the same money is...you have some sort of chance to be a contender or win some playoff series. But that's for one year. I was hoping we could keep butler for less than the absolute most money he could get and not for 5 years. Bobby Marks on wolfson's Podcast broke down what the Wolves could have done with renegotiation in 2017. I can't blame the Wolves for not wanting to do that then but maybe Butler isn't just talking about money this year but the previous season when they could have very easily taken care of him even without signing guys like Taj and Teague. If so his comments with Racheal Nichols about Thibs being his guy and he would stay because of him being with Thibs etc make a little more sense. Anyway, that's kinda off in the weeds with water under the bridge but anyhow...
I'll have to listen the Marks on Doogie's podcast. If we could have taken care of Butler with a new contract last summer right after the trade, then that's exactly what should have happened. Not signing Teague and perhaps not signing Taj as well would have freed up a lot of money to do things for Jimmy. Teague didn't really add much and, although Taj contributed significantly, he wasn't critical to the team. Butler was the one player actually critical to the Wolves dramatic improvement last season. The entire key to the Wolves future at the time was the combination of Butler and Towns, perhaps with Wiggins. Once the decision to trade for Butler was made, every effort should have been made contractually to secure him long term.
We will probably never know the full story, but I have no doubt there were major f-ups by our front office long the way -- likely beyond what we've seen since the end of last season -- that led to Jimmy's trade demand. As I've said before, I'm disappointed in Jimmy, but I still get where he's coming from and still love him as a player. I hold our front office fully accountable for the situation we're in now.
I would argue that Taj was our 3rd most impactful player last year after Butler and KAT. I think he added at least a couple wins for us over and beyond the prior year, with Butler adding the rest. I was not a fan of paying that much for Taj at the time, but he absolutely earned every penny of that contract last year.
That being said, he and Teague are 2/5ths of our starting lineup this pre-season and deserve their fair share of the blame for our pathetic start. Hopefully they can do better when the regular season starts.
Frank Isola had a fun and kinda interesting article about how Thibs and Riley have sort of a connection going back to the old days of the Heat and Knicks and why they both want Butler and how Butler is a guy Riley would want. It made me think it's likely Riley is gonna go get Butler eventually.
monsterpile wrote:Frank Isola had a fun and kinda interesting article about how Thibs and Riley have sort of a connection going back to the old days of the Heat and Knicks and why they both want Butler and how Butler is a guy Riley would want. It made me think it's likely Riley is gonna go get Butler eventually.
The team that needs the star, is chasing the star, and has no other means of acquiring a star, will give up what it takes to get the star.
I've said this since the beginning despite all the drama. What the Wolves get in return for Butler if they do decide to trade him will come down to how patient and disciplined they are in negotiations with team(s).
Q12543 wrote:I would argue that Taj was our 3rd most impactful player last year after Butler and KAT. I think he added at least a couple wins for us over and beyond the prior year, with Butler adding the rest. I was not a fan of paying that much for Taj at the time, but he absolutely earned every penny of that contract last year.
That being said, he and Teague are 2/5ths of our starting lineup this pre-season and deserve their fair share of the blame for our pathetic start. Hopefully they can do better when the regular season starts.
My point, Q, was that paying Taj $14 million and Teague $19 million was a mistake if the alternative to those contracts was a restructured deal with Butler to lock him in for a period of years. As I read Monster's point, it seemed as if Butler wanted and maybe even expected such a deal. I see no reason not to give him that deal other than luxury tax concerns, which could have been mitigated by forgoing those two big contracts. I thought the Teague contract was a bad one in isolation. The Gibson contract only looks bad if it prevented us from locking in Butler over the long term and avoiding the circus we're seeing today.
monsterpile wrote:Frank Isola had a fun and kinda interesting article about how Thibs and Riley have sort of a connection going back to the old days of the Heat and Knicks and why they both want Butler and how Butler is a guy Riley would want. It made me think it's likely Riley is gonna go get Butler eventually.
The team that needs the star, is chasing the star, and has no other means of acquiring a star, will give up what it takes to get the star.
I've said this since the beginning despite all the drama. What the Wolves get in return for Butler if they do decide to trade him will come down to how patient and disciplined they are in negotiations with team(s).
I agree with you Cam. You're absolutely right that the Heat need and are chasing a star. Right now Jimmy is the only star available. Moreover, there is no realistic way the Heat can free up the cap space to pursue Jimmy or any other top free agents next summer. The extension they just gave to Winslow makes it marginally even more difficult for them to clear space. Further, Jimmy is precisely the type of allstar talent Riley would love. So yes, we need to be resolute and persistent. My concern is that, if we play Butler, he could get hurt. Otherwise, at some point the Heat should step up with a better offer than the one they purportedly made. The only rub is that I have a hard time seeing how they can do a deal for Butler under the salary-match requirements without the Wolves having to take one of the Heat's bad contracts.
Any ideas? You may have already posted something that I missed, but I'm curious to see your thoughts on realistic deals you'd like from Miami. Thanks.
Q12543 wrote:I would argue that Taj was our 3rd most impactful player last year after Butler and KAT. I think he added at least a couple wins for us over and beyond the prior year, with Butler adding the rest. I was not a fan of paying that much for Taj at the time, but he absolutely earned every penny of that contract last year.
That being said, he and Teague are 2/5ths of our starting lineup this pre-season and deserve their fair share of the blame for our pathetic start. Hopefully they can do better when the regular season starts.
My point, Q, was that paying Taj $14 million and Teague $19 million was a mistake if the alternative to those contracts was a restructured deal with Butler to lock him in for a period of years. As I read Monster's point, it seemed as if Butler wanted and maybe even expected such a deal. I see no reason not to give him that deal other than luxury tax concerns, which could have been mitigated by forgoing those two big contracts. I thought the Teague contract was a bad one in isolation. The Gibson contract only looks bad if it prevented us from locking in Butler over the long term and avoiding the circus we're seeing today.
I was on YouTube watching something else and the lengthy clip where Butler talked about this came up so I watched it again. Maybe Butler is lying or not telling the whole truth or somewhat delusional but it does seem like he feels like he should have been taken care of when it comes to his contract. Someone on realgm brought up that his last deal ended up being lower than maybe I could have been. Let's be honest however you see Butler he was on a bargain contract for the 2 years when he was acquired. 20 million for a top 20 player even if he misses 20 games a year is still good. Crazy good? Maybe not but good. It seems Butler wanted a renegotiation when he was acquired. I didn't really realize that was an option or that it would make sense to do so. Even if we weren't at this ridiculously bad spot doing that renegotiation makes some sense even if last year and this year you have to pay him 10 million more because then you could have him locked in for what 4 years total? You don't have to worry about giving him a terrible contract after this season. You probably pay a bit less for 2019 and 2020. Yes it would have cost signing one good player like Teague or Taj (maybe both) but whatever money they would have had left over would have attracted someone left that would have been very excited to be a starting PG for a team that only had x amount of dollars left. If this is really part of Butler's problem...I kinda get it. He should probably be more patient but I get a bit where he is coming from. Think about This. Forget what Wiggins and Towns is making...Jeff Teague made about 1 million less than Butler last year and what they are slated to make this year. Jimmy likes Teague and probably has zero problem with Jeff but yeah ok.
Again if Thins thought this was more of Butler's problem I can see how he thought he was gonna smooth it out because...they win this year and they can pay Jimmy a boat load of money and it's fine. I'm reading into things here but it does seem like a few miscalculations here. I'm not sure anyone saw Jimmy going quite this far though but maybe he is because it's the only way he sees Thibs giving him up. Whoever suggested we need to get outside and do something is right I'm out. lol
