Rubio's Pre and Post All Star Break Splits

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I'm in agreement with a few others that what we are seeing with Rubio is partially a mirage. All players go through peaks and valleys with shooting. The question with Rubio is can his valleys become less severe and his peaks go higher? I believe that is a trend that was happening BEFORE this season:

2011-12 FG%/3PT%/FT%/TS%/PPG
Pre - 38/35/81/49/11.3 - Peak
Post - 26/25/75/37/7.3 - Valley

2012-13
Pre - 34/13/77/46/7.8 - Valley (came back from ACL injury)
Post - 37/35/82/49/12.9 - Peak

2013-14
Pre - 36/34/83/48/8.9 - Valley
Post - 42/30/76/52/10.7 - Peak

2014-15
Pre - 42/41/76/50/10.8 - Peak
Post - 31/18/83/42/9.8 - Valley (came back from ankle injury)

2015-16
Pre - 36/29/83/51/9.7 - Valley
Post - 40/37/89/57/10.7 - Peak

2016-17
Pre - 39/28/87/53/8.9 - Valley
Post - 46/44/91/59/16.8 - Peak


If you look at his Valleys year to year, they gradually become less worse. And his peaks have gradually become better and better. Obviously this year's peak is very extreme, but he really has been trending up throughout his career. I think a couple of his valleys were very much affected by coming back from injury, so that sort of makes his numbers look worse than they otherwise would have been.

[Monster]

I don't have my hopes up too high but this is the first season he has played after being mostly healthy the previous season and therefore having a pretty good offseason to work on things and this next offseason he will have no national team commitments and will be playing for the same coach in the same system and with the same key players. We could see him drop off in some ways but also improve in what you are bringing up here...consistency. What this team needs is vets that can bring it every night and bring some sort of leadership. Rubio isn't THE GUY but I think it's possible he could help much more in that way next year than he did this year. We will see. My guess is he is on the roster unless some team offers something crazy for him this offseason which...with this upcoming draft seems pretty unlikely.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

A simple way to look at things on the aggregate is year to year TS% trend. TS% is an overall shooting efficiency metric that factors in 2-pointers, 3-pointers, and free throws:

2011-12 - 47.6%
2012-13 - 48.2%
2013-14 - 49.1%
2014-15 - 45.2% (came back prematurely from early season ankle injury, then was shelved)
2015-16 - 52.9%
2016-17 - 55.3%

Other than the bump in '14-15, which I think is excusable, he's been trending up every year in overall shooting efficiency.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I don't have my hopes up too high but this is the first season he has played after being mostly healthy the previous season and therefore having a pretty good offseason to work on things and this next offseason he will have no national team commitments and will be playing for the same coach in the same system and with the same key players. We could see him drop off in some ways but also improve in what you are bringing up here...consistency. What this team needs is vets that can bring it every night and bring some sort of leadership. Rubio isn't THE GUY but I think it's possible he could help much more in that way next year than he did this year. We will see. My guess is he is on the roster unless some team offers something crazy for him this offseason which...with this upcoming draft seems pretty unlikely.

Agreed, the injuries disrupted things, as his "valleys" were particularly low in the 20-30 games he played coming off the ACL injury and then the ankle injury. This does not bode well for LaVine unfortunately.

[Monster]

I don't have my hopes up too high but this is the first season he has played after being mostly healthy the previous season and therefore having a pretty good offseason to work on things and this next offseason he will have no national team commitments and will be playing for the same coach in the same system and with the same key players. We could see him drop off in some ways but also improve in what you are bringing up here...consistency. What this team needs is vets that can bring it every night and bring some sort of leadership. Rubio isn't THE GUY but I think it's possible he could help much more in that way next year than he did this year. We will see. My guess is he is on the roster unless some team offers something crazy for him this offseason which...with this upcoming draft seems pretty unlikely.

Agreed, the injuries disrupted things, as his "valleys" were particularly low in the 20-30 games he played coming off the ACL injury and then the ankle injury. This does not bode well for LaVine unfortunately.

I'm not expecting Lavine to be terrific next year whenever he comes back but I also won't be surprised if after 20 games he settles in and does very well. He is a different player than Rubio athletically (possible he recovers faster) and to some extent I don't think he relies on his athletic ability to donsome of what he does well...shooting the ball. We will see.

[Monster]

:)

https://twitter.com/espnsteinline/status/847681668466917377

The Knicks are so Knicks-y right now that Ricky Rubio just keeps getting better and better and better since NOT becoming a Knick. Kudos, RR.

[Mstermisty [enjin:6864008]]

Stats aside I think Rick Rube might have simply finally washed the heavy coat of euro off of himself, as he was covered in it after starting professionally at age 14, where he never looked to score, just play defense and defer to guys twice his age. But now it appears he might have finally found the mindset of a modern day NBA point guard. Better late than never.

The real question will be when he goes through a shooting slump, and we all know he will, can he stay aggressive and still take open shots and not revert back to his old habits. And with the amount of offensive fire power we have on this team, assuming Lavine returns healthy, it's not like he needs to score 20 a game. But 13 to 15 on more efficient shooting for an entire season would really help.

[Monster]

Stats aside I think Rick Rube might have simply finally washed the heavy coat of euro off of himself, as he was covered in it after starting professionally at age 14, where he never looked to score, just play defense and defer to guys twice his age. But now it appears he might have finally found the mindset of a modern day NBA point guard. Better late than never.

The real question will be when he goes through a shooting slump, and we all know he will, can he stay aggressive and still take open shots and not revert back to his old habits. And with the amount of offensive fire power we have on this team, assuming Lavine returns healthy, it's not like he needs to score 20 a game. But 13 to 15 on more efficient shooting for an entire season would really help.

Good post.

My curiosity is how many shots will he hunt for or is willing to take when he is is playing with another player that's an actual scorer. Right now he is playing a chunk of minutes with Rush who is a 3 point shooter and literally nothing else. He takes less than 7 shots per game per 36 minutes. Rubio's fewest shots per 36 is 9.1. That's how little of a threat Rush is as a scorer other than hitting 3's. Whoever Rubio is playing with next year will be more than that whether it's a high level FA or decent starter or draft pick or Lavine they will be more of a threat than Rush. He also has played some minutes with guys like Tyus and Dunn who aren't exactly scorers either. They have literally needed someone to score. If that isn't needed as much will he still take some shots or take enough or will he defer? Thibs has been designing things for Rubio to get scoring opportunities since December so I think he wants Rubio to take shots regardless of who is on the floor.

[thedoper]

Stats aside I think Rick Rube might have simply finally washed the heavy coat of euro off of himself, as he was covered in it after starting professionally at age 14, where he never looked to score, just play defense and defer to guys twice his age. But now it appears he might have finally found the mindset of a modern day NBA point guard. Better late than never.

The real question will be when he goes through a shooting slump, and we all know he will, can he stay aggressive and still take open shots and not revert back to his old habits. And with the amount of offensive fire power we have on this team, assuming Lavine returns healthy, it's not like he needs to score 20 a game. But 13 to 15 on more efficient shooting for an entire season would really help.

He'll never completely wash off the euro until he renounces techno

[Mstermisty [enjin:6864008]]

Too much to ask Doper. Would be like asking Pork Chop to give up meat.