TeamRicky wrote:I predict 48 wins (with a range of 46 to 50). I am even toying with the possibility of making a fun bet in Vegas on the Wolves season. Can anyone refer a good legit site to make a seasonal bet?
I've used BetUS.com in the past and found them reliable, Ricky. The only issue I had with them in paying me came with trying to collect after winning "free bets". They have some funky rules about having to exceed a certain level of action before paying off bets made with "free money". I never had any problems collecting on straight bets though. They currently have the Wolves at 42 wins, but you don't have to pay any juice to bet the over (i.e. bet $100, get $200 back if they win more than 42).
Im going to go with 45 wins. Sounds about right. As for a betting site i use bovada.com. bet on vikes to make playoffs and cashed out last year and no issues. Bonus is an issue as like other guy said they make u bet so much to get bonus.
Ahhhh, I'm starting to feel like my old self again as my prediction continues to creep lower relative to most other folks. Now I just need Abe to revise his number up after our epic pre-season victory. I suspect he'll hold the line for now......
Taking a bit of a step back Abe is at 42 wins and the low is 38 wins so far. This board has never been more optimistic and seems to have plenty of legit reasons to feel that way.
I feel 38 wins is a good number for this team and would be very happy with it. I had no idea I would be the lowest prediction on the board. If this team wins 50 games Thibs needs to be COY
Why so low?
a) As mentioned in previous post optimism based one .500 record in last 20 games is flawed by the fact that 70% of those wins came against non-playoff teams.
b) I counted wins against most sub .500 teams at home and roughly 1/2 of those games on the road. I counted home wins against 1/2 of playoff teams at home and 1/4 on the road.
c) In the past I have been overly optimistic at this stage of the season. Perhaps betting against them this year will change that.
Big O wrote:Why so low?
a) As mentioned in previous post optimism based one .500 record in last 20 games is flawed by the fact that 70% of those wins came against non-playoff teams.
b) I counted wins against most sub .500 teams at home and roughly 1/2 of those games on the road. I counted home wins against 1/2 of playoff teams at home and 1/4 on the road.
c) In the past I have been overly optimistic at this stage of the season. Perhaps betting against them this year will change that.
O, I don't understand your logic in the first point above. It seems your premise is the Wolves' record the final 20 games was artificially inflated by playing a much easier schedule, but I don't think that is factual. The Wolves had 10 home games and 10 road games in their final 20, and 10 games against playoff teams and 10 against non-playoff teams. While there are slightly more playoff teams than non-playoff teams (16 to 14) in the league, it seems to me that the Wolves' schedule the final 20 games was about as balanced as a schedule can be...actually perhaps more difficult than an average schedule since it included games against the three best teams in the Western Conference. Further, I would argue that a .500 team typically wins about 70% of its games against non-playoff teams and 30% of its games against playoff teams.
I completely agree with your logic in your third point though!
Big O wrote:Why so low?
a) As mentioned in previous post optimism based one .500 record in last 20 games is flawed by the fact that 70% of those wins came against non-playoff teams.
b) I counted wins against most sub .500 teams at home and roughly 1/2 of those games on the road. I counted home wins against 1/2 of playoff teams at home and 1/4 on the road.
c) In the past I have been overly optimistic at this stage of the season. Perhaps betting against them this year will change that.
O, I don't understand your logic in the first point above. It seems your premise is the Wolves' record the final 20 games was artificially inflated by playing a much easier schedule, but I don't think that is factual. The Wolves had 10 home games and 10 road games in their final 20, and 10 games against playoff teams and 10 against non-playoff teams. While there are slightly more playoff teams than non-playoff teams (16 to 14) in the league, it seems to me that the Wolves' schedule the final 20 games was about as balanced as a schedule can be...actually perhaps more difficult than an average schedule since it included games against the three best teams in the Western Conference. Further, I would argue that a .500 team typically wins about 70% of its games against non-playoff teams and 30% of its games against playoff teams.
I completely agree with your logic in your third point though!
LST, I see your point about the last 20 games. On recount it appears that only 6 of those wins were against lottery teams (Nets, Kings x2, Wizards, Suns, Pelicans). Regardless, I'm going to keep my sub .500 prediction and be very happy to be wrong.
We had a similar thread if I remember , I'll stick with my 39 win total just missing out on the playoffs. 10 game improvement and a better idea of which players will be in the long term plans for next season in which I think they improve 10+ games and become serious players in the West.
