khans2k5 wrote:I don't think Thibs signed anyone really imoortant because a lot of money was being thrown around and he didn't really know what he had. You have 3 young wings you want to see play a lot (Zach, Wiggins, Bazz). You have 3 bigs you want to play a lot (Towns, Dieng, Belly). You have 3 PG's (one of which you just drafted). So you sign guys like Rush and Aldrich who can fill in if needed, but aren't good enough to demand minutes allowing you to play the main 8 a lot and see what you have. Now that we know Bazz likely won't be back imo unless he gives us a good deal and Dieng really needs to be pushed to the bench I think we'll see a more active offseason.
I've thought about the pure evaluation angle too. Now we know, we're not that good again. Mission accomplished.
I think it's a fair hypothesis, but more likely I think is Thibs wanted a full year to evaluate his current players to see what he needs, then spend the money. He should have come to many conclusions by now:
Dieng: probably best as first big off the bench
Bazz: we can do better, punt
Belly: has a decent contract, came on strong in the end, worth another look
Dunn/Tyus: not ready, may never be, both still have potential though
Lavine: starting to realize potential, ceiling is still high, floor not as low
Towns: no-brainer cornerstone
Wiggins: hopefully can become a legit 2nd star but has work to do
Rubio: solid starter, but could use a reliable backup when he has off games, still should not be relied on to score
everyone else: not even worth mentioning
I think Thibs knows what he has now. It's up to him to mold the keepers with some fresh blood, and maybe even get something out of the duds that stick around. I'm giving him next season to do it. If they don't make the playoffs, then sadly the Thibs era joins all the other eras since KG/Sam/Spree as an utter failure.
Looks like Khans beat me to the evaluation post. Again, Thibs might have just seen that we were not ready to make a splash yet with 3 young guys leading us, so he sacrificed some wins this year to have a clearer picture of what needed to be done for next season. At least this is what I'm telling myself to remain sane as a fan of this team, a team that has now missed the playoffs 13 years in a row. 13. Sheesh.
khans2k5 wrote:I don't think Thibs signed anyone really imoortant because a lot of money was being thrown around and he didn't really know what he had. You have 3 young wings you want to see play a lot (Zach, Wiggins, Bazz). You have 3 bigs you want to play a lot (Towns, Dieng, Belly). You have 3 PG's (one of which you just drafted). So you sign guys like Rush and Aldrich who can fill in if needed, but aren't good enough to demand minutes allowing you to play the main 8 a lot and see what you have. Now that we know Bazz likely won't be back imo unless he gives us a good deal and Dieng really needs to be pushed to the bench I think we'll see a more active offseason.
I've thought about the pure evaluation angle too. Now we know, we're not that good again. Mission accomplished.
I wouldn't call it pure evaluation. If you're a good coach you probably think you can coach up these guys and possibly see significant improvement allowing you to not have to do anything big. Why sign a big for 15 million last offseason if you saw enough from Dieng and Belly before to think you could make them as valuable as that 15 million dollar guy for a fraction of the cost this year? Now we know we really need a starting 4 and 2 good wings. Push Dieng and Belly down a spot and now you have some solid depth and bench play. Zach may or may not earn his starting spot back next year and Bazz is probably gone. I think Dunn will be fine as a combo guard next year. Give him an off season with Saunders and summer league to build confidence and I think he'll be much better next year.
Mstermisty wrote:Looks like Khans beat me to the evaluation post. Again, Thibs might have just seen that we were not ready to make a splash yet with 3 young guys leading us, so he sacrificed some wins this year to have a clearer picture of what needed to be done for next season. At least this is what I'm telling myself to remain sane as a fan of this team, a team that has now missed the playoffs 13 years in a row. 13. Sheesh.
I think this assessment is probably close to what is going on in Thibs brain. So do you give him a good grade overall for this strategy or does he get a shitty evaluation because our top 2 didn't develop to give a playoff run?
khans2k5 wrote:I don't think Thibs signed anyone really imoortant because a lot of money was being thrown around and he didn't really know what he had. You have 3 young wings you want to see play a lot (Zach, Wiggins, Bazz). You have 3 bigs you want to play a lot (Towns, Dieng, Belly). You have 3 PG's (one of which you just drafted). So you sign guys like Rush and Aldrich who can fill in if needed, but aren't good enough to demand minutes allowing you to play the main 8 a lot and see what you have. Now that we know Bazz likely won't be back imo unless he gives us a good deal and Dieng really needs to be pushed to the bench I think we'll see a more active offseason.
I've thought about the pure evaluation angle too. Now we know, we're not that good again. Mission accomplished.
I wouldn't call it pure evaluation. If you're a good coach you probably think you can coach up these guys and possibly see significant improvement allowing you to not have to do anything big. Why sign a big for 15 million last offseason if you saw enough from Dieng and Belly before to think you could make them as valuable as that 15 million dollar guy for a fraction of the cost this year? Now we know we really need a starting 4 and 2 good wings. Push Dieng and Belly down a spot and now you have some solid depth and bench play. Zach may or may not earn his starting spot back next year and Bazz is probably gone. I think Dunn will be fine as a combo guard next year. Give him an off season with Saunders and summer league to build confidence and I think he'll be much better next year.
I agree with everything you said except the angle that now we know we need a starting 4. I would be shocked if Thibs really thought we had a starting 4 anywhere on our roster at the beginning of the season. After last season it was such a glaring hole for us. I am fine with the explanation that now is not our time and we're better off to wait. But it was pretty crystal clear after last season that niether Dieng or Belly had the chops to be a long term starter at the 4. I don't know why we needed another year to see that.
Mstermisty wrote:Looks like Khans beat me to the evaluation post. Again, Thibs might have just seen that we were not ready to make a splash yet with 3 young guys leading us, so he sacrificed some wins this year to have a clearer picture of what needed to be done for next season. At least this is what I'm telling myself to remain sane as a fan of this team, a team that has now missed the playoffs 13 years in a row. 13. Sheesh.
I think this assessment is probably close to what is going on in Thibs brain. So do you give him a good grade overall for this strategy or does he get a shitty evaluation because our top 2 didn't develop to give a playoff run?
Honestly I don't know. If we find a couple nice pieces and they fit in next season and we turn it around it will be much easier to swallow the dissapointment of this season. Maybe Thibs thought he had enough here to barely make the playoffs this season and that was good enough, knowing that would have satisfied the fans, for now.
Bottom line for me is I'm holding off all grading/evaluating of Thibs until next season. We'll see if he has some sort of master plan and can execute it, or if he actually has no plan at all. I'll say this though, no failure for this franchise surprises me anymore.
thedoper wrote:I have been racking my brain to think of why Thibs basically signed no one he intended on playing this year. My suspicion is the conversation went like this:
Thibs: Mr. Taylor I think we have a good young roster but we are going to need a real veteran presence to round out this team.
Taylor: Will I have to pay luxury tax in the future?
Thibs: Maybe
Taylor: no way ever
Thibs: If we are serious about winning we need it.
Taylor: Prove it.
Thibs: ok I will roll out the exact same roster as last year and play all of these kids 40 minutes a night.
And here we are. Yes the kids didn't make the quantum leap we all hoped for under a strong system coach.
Bottom line we don't have depth. Utah made the leap with a few key vets. We're in the exact same position. Exciting and frustrating all at the same time. We need a top level vet to somehow see how close we are and sign up for this circus.
Utah made the leap because in the middle of the 2014-15 season, they promoted the 22-year old Rudy Gobert to their full time starting Center and they immediately became one of the best defenses in the league. Their calling card has been defense ever since and he is the main reason.
That being said, I agree with your conclusion: We need to try and go for a big-time vet that we can add to the starting lineup.
How about this guys? Just hold on to most of your 10 point leads. Better depth will certainly help with that, but we're not a complete lost cause right now. Last nights game was a microcosm of our entire season. Get off to a good start, build a lead, tire in the 2nd half, lose to a deeper team. Seems fixable to me.
CoolBreeze44 wrote:How about this guys? Just hold on to most of your 10 point leads. Better depth will certainly help with that, but we're not a complete lost cause right now. Last nights game was a microcosm of our entire season. Get off to a good start, build a lead, tire in the 2nd half, lose to a deeper team. Seems fixable to me.
That deeper team only played 8 players last night...
