***Official 2016-2017 Wins Prediction Thread***

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Update with latest predictions added:

Bleed - 38
Big O, Pork - 39
Volans - 40
Kekgeek - 41
Abe, Shumway - 42
Q, Monster - 43
Drew, Mr. Brightside, Mikkeman - 44
Future, Crazysauce - 45
Doper, Kiwi, Maelstrom - 46
Jerry, Mstermisty, Lipoli - 47
TeamRicky, LST - 48
Cool - 49
SP - 50
Worldk - 51
Phenom - 54
Tim - 60

I know a few guys lurk on here and haven't weighed in yet (that includes you too Cam!). Let's get your prediction. We are already two pre-season games in!

Edit: Added Mikkeman's prediction

[MikkeMan]

Ok. Here comes my prediction. 44 games.

I don't put much weight on last 20 games of previous season. It is cherry picking to select just those 20 games, since that 20 game period start with win. If we would pick 23 last games (they used same starting five in those three games as well), their record would have been just 10-13 which is equal to 43,5% winning percentage. In close games (3 points or less margin) Wolves had 3 wins and just 1 loss. So with little less luck, their record even in last 20 games, could have been just 8 - 12. Last reason for not valuing those wins any higher is that three of the wins came against teams that missed majority of their best players. Memphis didn't have Gasol, Conley or Randolph, Sacramento was missing Cousins, Rondo and Casspi and New Orleans was basically missing their whole starting five.

While I hope that our youngsters continue to improve, similar rapid increase in wins than OKC had in Durant's third year is really rare even for teams that have a lot young talent. Last year Milwaukee had a lot of young talent and it seems that many of them even improved pretty nicely (at least Giannis, Parker and Middleton) but still their record was worse than in previous year. Similar examples can be found from past. 98-99 Boston team looked really promising. They had 3rd year Antoine Walker who had been just selected for all star game previous year, 2nd year Mercer coming from rookie season when he was selected to all rookie team and really good rookie Paul Pierce. They had also previous year improved their record 21 games. So expectations were high but they won just 19 games in that lockout shortened season.

So I think that my prediction already means that I expect that Thibbs will have a great effect for our record and that our key players (Towns, Wiggins, Lavine) will continue to improve.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I guessed too high.

[Lipoli390]

After last night's game against Charlotte, I'm revising my prediction down from 47 to 37. Stay tuned for my next prediction following the next preseason game. :) One more loss and I'll be starting the fire Thibs thread.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Ok. Here comes my prediction. 44 games.

I don't put much weight on last 20 games of previous season. It is cherry picking to select just those 20 games, since that 20 game period start with win. If we would pick 23 last games (they used same starting five in those three games as well), their record would have been just 10-13 which is equal to 43,5% winning percentage. In close games (3 points or less margin) Wolves had 3 wins and just 1 loss. So with little less luck, their record even in last 20 games, could have been just 8 - 12. Last reason for not valuing those wins any higher is that three of the wins came against teams that missed majority of their best players. Memphis didn't have Gasol, Conley or Randolph, Sacramento was missing Cousins, Rondo and Casspi and New Orleans was basically missing their whole starting five.

While I hope that our youngsters continue to improve, similar rapid increase in wins than OKC had in Durant's third year is really rare even for teams that have a lot young talent. Last year Milwaukee had a lot of young talent and it seems that many of them even improved pretty nicely (at least Giannis, Parker and Middleton) but still their record was worse than in previous year. Similar examples can be found from past. 98-99 Boston team looked really promising. They had 3rd year Antoine Walker who had been just selected for all star game previous year, 2nd year Mercer coming from rookie season when he was selected to all rookie team and really good rookie Paul Pierce. They had also previous year improved their record 21 games. So expectations were high but they won just 19 games in that lockout shortened season.

So I think that my prediction already means that I expect that Thibbs will have a great effect for our record and that our key players (Towns, Wiggins, Lavine) will continue to improve.

While I'm not surprised, this is probably the most well-researched prediction on the board. Well done Mikkeman. Next time we do this, why don't you go first and then I can just say "what he said".

[Monster]

Ok. Here comes my prediction. 44 games.

I don't put much weight on last 20 games of previous season. It is cherry picking to select just those 20 games, since that 20 game period start with win. If we would pick 23 last games (they used same starting five in those three games as well), their record would have been just 10-13 which is equal to 43,5% winning percentage. In close games (3 points or less margin) Wolves had 3 wins and just 1 loss. So with little less luck, their record even in last 20 games, could have been just 8 - 12. Last reason for not valuing those wins any higher is that three of the wins came against teams that missed majority of their best players. Memphis didn't have Gasol, Conley or Randolph, Sacramento was missing Cousins, Rondo and Casspi and New Orleans was basically missing their whole starting five.

While I hope that our youngsters continue to improve, similar rapid increase in wins than OKC had in Durant's third year is really rare even for teams that have a lot young talent. Last year Milwaukee had a lot of young talent and it seems that many of them even improved pretty nicely (at least Giannis, Parker and Middleton) but still their record was worse than in previous year. Similar examples can be found from past. 98-99 Boston team looked really promising. They had 3rd year Antoine Walker who had been just selected for all star game previous year, 2nd year Mercer coming from rookie season when he was selected to all rookie team and really good rookie Paul Pierce. They had also previous year improved their record 21 games. So expectations were high but they won just 19 games in that lockout shortened season.

So I think that my prediction already means that I expect that Thibbs will have a great effect for our record and that our key players (Towns, Wiggins, Lavine) will continue to improve.

While I'm not surprised, this is probably the most well-researched prediction on the board. Well done Mikkeman. Next time we do this, why don't you go first and then I can just say "what he said".

That was a good breakdown. Well done Mikkeman.

[AbeVigodaLive]

After last night's game against Charlotte, I'm revising my prediction down from 47 to 37. Stay tuned for my next prediction following the next preseason game. :) One more loss and I'll be starting the fire Thibs thread.

I listened to the first half of a Redick/Zach Lowe podcast today. JJ Redick was mentioning the worthlessness of preseason games. And I'm sure it's especially true for teams like the Clippers filled with veterans who have been together for quite awhile. It brought to mind the drubbing that the Warriors put on the Clippers last week and Doc Rivers comments afterward.

That being said, I think the Wolves are one of the few teams who can use them to its advantage. Young team. New coach. All trying to learn about each other... as well as how to play in the NBA (still). The Wins and Losses aren't important. But at least the foundation for learning how to play can begin...


[Note: The other takeaway from that discussion was about how Rudy Gay offers less and less value around the league for a mostly isolation-ball style that's used less and less. They also mentioned how his three point shooting is a problem... and he shoots 34% for his career, significantly higher than Wiggins thus far. With that in mind, I really hope Wiggins shows more versatility this season and/or improved three point shooting.]

[bleedspeed]

I expected people to be revising win totals down after that preseason loss.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Ok. Here comes my prediction. 44 games.

I don't put much weight on last 20 games of previous season. It is cherry picking to select just those 20 games, since that 20 game period start with win. If we would pick 23 last games (they used same starting five in those three games as well), their record would have been just 10-13 which is equal to 43,5% winning percentage. In close games (3 points or less margin) Wolves had 3 wins and just 1 loss. So with little less luck, their record even in last 20 games, could have been just 8 - 12. Last reason for not valuing those wins any higher is that three of the wins came against teams that missed majority of their best players. Memphis didn't have Gasol, Conley or Randolph, Sacramento was missing Cousins, Rondo and Casspi and New Orleans was basically missing their whole starting five.

While I hope that our youngsters continue to improve, similar rapid increase in wins than OKC had in Durant's third year is really rare even for teams that have a lot young talent. Last year Milwaukee had a lot of young talent and it seems that many of them even improved pretty nicely (at least Giannis, Parker and Middleton) but still their record was worse than in previous year. Similar examples can be found from past. 98-99 Boston team looked really promising. They had 3rd year Antoine Walker who had been just selected for all star game previous year, 2nd year Mercer coming from rookie season when he was selected to all rookie team and really good rookie Paul Pierce. They had also previous year improved their record 21 games. So expectations were high but they won just 19 games in that lockout shortened season.

So I think that my prediction already means that I expect that Thibbs will have a great effect for our record and that our key players (Towns, Wiggins, Lavine) will continue to improve.

While I'm not surprised, this is probably the most well-researched prediction on the board. Well done Mikkeman. Next time we do this, why don't you go first and then I can just say "what he said".

That was a good breakdown. Well done Mikkeman.

I have to echo Q's and Monster's praise...there are so many terrific posters here, but Mikkeman may be consistently the best we have. I often feel triumphant when he agrees with me, and even when he refutes my arguments ( I think I was the architect of the two theories he refutes above...the validity of the Wolves' final 20 games, and the parallel to the OkC big jump season), I still have to tip my hat to his logic.

I have to agree that I cherry picked the last 20 games of the season to make my argument stronger. However I could go back to Feb 3 (the date I actually think they turned their season around), and come up with an even more compelling cherry picked stat: over the final 32 games of the season, the Wolves were 15-17 for a .468 winning percentage. Not quite .500, but close to it over a more significant sample size.

[MikkeMan]

I have to echo Q's and Monster's praise...there are so many terrific posters here, but Mikkeman may be consistently the best we have. I often feel triumphant when he agrees with me, and even when he refutes my arguments ( I think I was the architect of the two theories he refutes above...the validity of the Wolves' final 20 games, and the parallel to the OkC big jump season), I still have to tip my hat to his logic.

I have to agree that I cherry picked the last 20 games of the season to make my argument stronger. However I could go back to Feb 3 (the date I actually think they turned their season around), and come up with an even more compelling cherry picked stat: over the final 32 games of the season, the Wolves were 15-17 for a .468 winning percentage. Not quite .500, but close to it over a more significant sample size.

Thanks for your praise even tough I'm not sure if my posts really are worth of it.

Using last 32 games instead of 20 games is little better. Unfortunately it has same problems than selecting last 20 games. Like you already wrote, it is cherry picked number of games since it starts with two straight wins and just before that Wolves had five games losing streak. That 32 games span also included 6-1 record in close games (I had missed one overtime win with more than 3 points margin in my previous post). If that close game record would have been closer to expected 50% record, Wolves overall record would have been pretty close to 40% during those 32 games. That is pretty much in line with the expected record based on points differential during those same 32 games. Wolves scored -2.8 points per game less than their opponent and that would give estimated winning percentage 40% that would mean 33 wins. Typically points differential is more reliable measurement for team performance level than win/loss record when sample size is small.

So my prediction assumes that our end of last season level of playing would give us 33 wins. Thibs improving our defense should give 4-5 wins more, improvement from our young core 3-4 wins and improved bench 3-4 wins. That would give overall record between 43-46 wins.

BTW. I'm really happy for the off season signings of Aldrich, Rush and Hill. Why so? All three played last season in teams with winning records and unlike for 2013-14 season's free agent additions Brewer and Martin, we are not expecting that this time our additions would be playing in much larger role for our team than they played in previous season.