CoolBreeze44 wrote:The only reason we should consider trading one of our young stars is the redundancy of Wiggins and Lavine. After 13 years of futility we finally have some young studs to build around. In what sane world do you jettison that plan at this point? We are still in the position that a lot of the teams would love to find themselves in, a realistic chance to contend for a championship for several years. We have another huge draft asset to use as another building block to our core, and plenty of financial flexibility to add the right pieces. I hope the front office avoids the temptation to try and improve marginally by dealing one of core pieces. That would be a mistake. Stay the course, add to what we have, and i believe we will be rewarded sooner than later.
Agree with the first sentence in bold.
Don't know about the second bolded sentence though. I don't know how realistic championship contention is. The Wolves are very very far away right now. And it goes beyond a better bench. The two marquee players of the future have to improve exponentially themselves. Wiggins is obviously promising, but after three years, he's not a sure thing. At some point, the age angle can't be his crutch.
That being said, this offseason should be interesting. And telling. I'm cool with only changes around the margins... finding the right kind of player to complement Wiggins and Towns. And a quality veteran starter. Anything less than .500 from this team next season (Wiggins in Year 4... Towns in Year 3) is a very very bad sign. Elite basketball players (difference makers) figure out a way to win sooner than later.
Abe, 23.5 ppg on 45.3% shooting and 35.6% from 3, how much more of a sure thing does he need to be? I'm sure you are thinking of other aspects of his game, and those things have been debated to death here so I'm not getting into them. But being a top 15 scorer in the league at age 21-22 should alone be enough to consider him a sure thing.
I should have been more clear. Wiggins is a sure thing as a scorer. But that doesn't make him a sure thing to be an elite player like so many of us want him to be... and what he'd have to be to make the 2nd half of a championship contender with Towns.
I was talking in context of championship in response to your post.
I agree with Abe that we know that Wiggins will be at least capable volume scorer with mediocre efficiency but we cannot be yet at all be sure that he would become one of the elite players in this league. There has been some other young players that were decent scorers as young age but in the end they weren't able to really make their team better. For example Jamal Mashburn and Glen Robinson at age of 22 years averaged 24.1 and 21.9 pts per game with efficiency that is comparable with Wiggins. Shareef Abdul-Rahim at age 21 averaged 22.3 pts per game with much better efficiency. But Mashburn was the only one of them that played more than once in team with any success and he was third best player in that team. (In Miami behind Morning and Hardaway)
So we don't know whether Wiggins will develop to true elite scorer that can carry his team at least as a second option far in playoffs or if he will remain scorer with mediocre efficiency and little team success. I still think that the changes are higher that Wiggins will eventually become elite scorer that can carry his team to success since most the players that have been as good scorers in same age than Wiggins have became perennial all stars.
I am usually the opTIMistic one, but I have a hard time getting their with Wiggins. Cool likes to call it "hate"...
I am also a Debbie-Downer on the FA market this off-season. We are a division cellar-dweller once again, showing little improvement from last year. Our two highest usage players do nearly zippo to make other players better. So why in the hell would any sought-after-FA choose the Wolves over another destination?
Any noteworthy transaction this off season will likely come via trade.
lipoli390 wrote:Zach probably won't be back until the middle of next season. And we simply can't start next season with Rush, Dunn or Tyus as our starting SG. Moreover, even when Zach returns his best role might be as our 6th man. If he comes back as a starter we'll definitely need a much better SG of the bench than Rush or anyone else on our current roster. Therefore, our top FA target should be a SG.
JJ Redick would be the perfect addition since he brings 3-point shooting and could be our starting SG or eventually settle in as our 6th man. Unfortunately, I have a hard time seeing how we could lure him away from the Clippers. And if not the Clippers, Redick's at a point in his career where he would likely sign with a championship contender if he leaves the Clippers. I'd pursue him, but I wouldn't expect to land him.
Tony Allen is another possibility. He'd bring defense and veteran savvy to the SG position in our starting lineup. He's a bit long in the tooth an doesn't bring much offense, but I think he'd be a good addition. I could see him leaving the Griz since they're really not going anywhere. The thought of coming in as a starter to lead a talented group of youngsters might appear to him, although like any goog free agent, we'd have to show him the money.
Sefolosha would be another good alternative to come in as our starting SG or SF alongside Wiggins. He's an excellent defender with good size and veteran savvy. He's getting up there in years, but still has some game I think.
I didn't know that zach was projected out until the middle of next season, but I don't know if that means we need to go after a SG in the draft/FA. A large opinion here is that Wiggins is better suited at SG until he fills out a bit and for that reason I wouldn't target Redick or Allen. But Sefolosha would be a great signing providing insurance at both positions, even if I view him as a bit injury prone.
If we were to sign Sefolosha, would you prefer to sign a PF/C type or a SF/PF type for a second free agent to add to Thib's tight rotation?
Unless Lip has some insider info I think he is just being understandably pessimistic about Lavine's recovery. Based on a quick google search and reading a few websites the timeframe for an ACL surgery with no complications is 6-9 months. Rubio injusted his knee in march and returned in the middle of December the following year and played 57 games. Lavine's injury was over a month earlier than Rubio and Rubio himself said Zach is beyond where he was at the same time. So it's quite possible Lavine will be available for a significant portion if not most of the season. How effective will he be? That's a fair question but I think it's likely he will be available to play quite a bit. Cool suggested Lavine will be ready for the start of the season. That's certainly not out of the realm of possibility.
Regardless the Wolves need more help at SG we are seeing right now the last of depth there. Because the Wolves have a couple big PGs they could afford to go with an undersized SG like a Barea type even. Some of those guys Cole relatively cheap. I like the idea of Redick but he isn't coming here for a bunch of reasons and he will get $$$$$$$ Sefelosha and Tony Allen are players that might be nice additions depending on how much money we have to show them to get them here. Of course you could hope Dunn progresses and gives you a lot of what Tony Allen would give you. Remember they are VERY similar when it comes to length so it's not crazy to think Dunn could offer some of whatever allen does. Obviously Allen has the experience and strength but Dunn has some things going for him too but most of it's potential.
lipoli390 wrote:Zach probably won't be back until the middle of next season. And we simply can't start next season with Rush, Dunn or Tyus as our starting SG. Moreover, even when Zach returns his best role might be as our 6th man. If he comes back as a starter we'll definitely need a much better SG of the bench than Rush or anyone else on our current roster. Therefore, our top FA target should be a SG.
JJ Redick would be the perfect addition since he brings 3-point shooting and could be our starting SG or eventually settle in as our 6th man. Unfortunately, I have a hard time seeing how we could lure him away from the Clippers. And if not the Clippers, Redick's at a point in his career where he would likely sign with a championship contender if he leaves the Clippers. I'd pursue him, but I wouldn't expect to land him.
Tony Allen is another possibility. He'd bring defense and veteran savvy to the SG position in our starting lineup. He's a bit long in the tooth an doesn't bring much offense, but I think he'd be a good addition. I could see him leaving the Griz since they're really not going anywhere. The thought of coming in as a starter to lead a talented group of youngsters might appear to him, although like any goog free agent, we'd have to show him the money.
Sefolosha would be another good alternative to come in as our starting SG or SF alongside Wiggins. He's an excellent defender with good size and veteran savvy. He's getting up there in years, but still has some game I think.
I didn't know that zach was projected out until the middle of next season, but I don't know if that means we need to go after a SG in the draft/FA. A large opinion here is that Wiggins is better suited at SG until he fills out a bit and for that reason I wouldn't target Redick or Allen. But Sefolosha would be a great signing providing insurance at both positions, even if I view him as a bit injury prone.
If we were to sign Sefolosha, would you prefer to sign a PF/C type or a SF/PF type for a second free agent to add to Thib's tight rotation?
Unless Lip has some insider info I think he is just being understandably pessimistic about Lavine's recovery. Based on a quick google search and reading a few websites the timeframe for an ACL surgery with no complications is 6-9 months. Rubio injusted his knee in march and returned in the middle of December the following year and played 57 games. Lavine's injury was over a month earlier than Rubio and Rubio himself said Zach is beyond where he was at the same time. So it's quite possible Lavine will be available for a significant portion if not most of the season. How effective will he be? That's a fair question but I think it's likely he will be available to play quite a bit. Cool suggested Lavine will be ready for the start of the season. That's certainly not out of the realm of possibility.
Regardless the Wolves need more help at SG we are seeing right now the last of depth there. Because the Wolves have a couple big PGs they could afford to go with an undersized SG like a Barea type even. Some of those guys Cole relatively cheap. I like the idea of Redick but he isn't coming here for a bunch of reasons and he will get $$$$$$$ Sefelosha and Tony Allen are players that might be nice additions depending on how much money we have to show them to get them here. Of course you could hope Dunn progresses and gives you a lot of what Tony Allen would give you. Remember they are VERY similar when it comes to length so it's not crazy to think Dunn could offer some of whatever allen does. Obviously Allen has the experience and strength but Dunn has some things going for him too but most of it's potential.
I'm already thinking about the narratives that we'll be reading in March about Lavine "finally feeling like himself again on the court."
Considering we didn't even know how much that was worth before the injury...
CoolBreeze44 wrote:The only reason we should consider trading one of our young stars is the redundancy of Wiggins and Lavine. After 13 years of futility we finally have some young studs to build around. In what sane world do you jettison that plan at this point? We are still in the position that a lot of the teams would love to find themselves in, a realistic chance to contend for a championship for several years. We have another huge draft asset to use as another building block to our core, and plenty of financial flexibility to add the right pieces. I hope the front office avoids the temptation to try and improve marginally by dealing one of core pieces. That would be a mistake. Stay the course, add to what we have, and i believe we will be rewarded sooner than later.
Agree with the first sentence in bold.
Don't know about the second bolded sentence though. I don't know how realistic championship contention is. The Wolves are very very far away right now. And it goes beyond a better bench. The two marquee players of the future have to improve exponentially themselves. Wiggins is obviously promising, but after three years, he's not a sure thing. At some point, the age angle can't be his crutch.
That being said, this offseason should be interesting. And telling. I'm cool with only changes around the margins... finding the right kind of player to complement Wiggins and Towns. And a quality veteran starter. Anything less than .500 from this team next season (Wiggins in Year 4... Towns in Year 3) is a very very bad sign. Elite basketball players (difference makers) figure out a way to win sooner than later.
Abe, 23.5 ppg on 45.3% shooting and 35.6% from 3, how much more of a sure thing does he need to be? I'm sure you are thinking of other aspects of his game, and those things have been debated to death here so I'm not getting into them. But being a top 15 scorer in the league at age 21-22 should alone be enough to consider him a sure thing.
I should have been more clear. Wiggins is a sure thing as a scorer. But that doesn't make him a sure thing to be an elite player like so many of us want him to be... and what he'd have to be to make the 2nd half of a championship contender with Towns.
I was talking in context of championship in response to your post.
I agree with Abe that we know that Wiggins will be at least capable volume scorer with mediocre efficiency but we cannot be yet at all be sure that he would become one of the elite players in this league. There has been some other young players that were decent scorers as young age but in the end they weren't able to really make their team better. For example Jamal Mashburn and Glen Robinson at age of 22 years averaged 24.1 and 21.9 pts per game with efficiency that is comparable with Wiggins. Shareef Abdul-Rahim at age 21 averaged 22.3 pts per game with much better efficiency. But Mashburn was the only one of them that played more than once in team with any success and he was third best player in that team. (In Miami behind Morning and Hardaway)
So we don't know whether Wiggins will develop to true elite scorer that can carry his team at least as a second option far in playoffs or if he will remain scorer with mediocre efficiency and little team success. I still think that the changes are higher that Wiggins will eventually become elite scorer that can carry his team to success since most the players that have been as good scorers in same age than Wiggins have became perennial all stars.
There are comps from a purely statistical perspective. But Mash and Robinson were not the athletes that Wiggins is, and ended up being guardable. Wiggins could go their route if he becomes easily guardable via injury. Wiggins has added to his game so far, he could plateau and stop working in the offseason but it would really seem out of character.
Glenn Robinson got a mediocre Bucks team to the Eastern Conference finals where they lost in 7 games to the 76ers. Along the way they knocked off Tracy McGrady and Orlando. And Glenn wasn't even close to the athlete that Wiggins is. But the Big Dog was no slouch in his prime.
CoolBreeze44 wrote:Glenn Robinson got a mediocre Bucks team to the Eastern Conference finals where they lost in 7 games to the 76ers. Along the way they knocked off Tracy McGrady and Orlando. And Glenn wasn't even close to the athlete that Wiggins is. But the Big Dog was no slouch in his prime.
1. That team also had Sam Cassell and Ray Allen. And some think that in the era of nefarious NBA officiating... that series was one of the calamities.
2. Glenn Robinson was good immediately. (22 pts / 6 reb) But... he never really improved. 7 years later... he was at 22/7. There might be a very good reason for that... He signed a 10 yr/$68M contract after the draft. The NBA quickly revised the rookie salary scale to keep that from happening again. And teams were probably thankful too. Without the carrot of a big contract looming... Robinson was content to remain a solid to good but never great player.
I am usually the opTIMistic one, but I have a hard time getting their with Wiggins. Cool likes to call it "hate"...
I am also a Debbie-Downer on the FA market this off-season. We are a division cellar-dweller once again, showing little improvement from last year. Our two highest usage players do nearly zippo to make other players better. So why in the hell would any sought-after-FA choose the Wolves over another destination?
Any noteworthy transaction this off season will likely come via trade.
I'm with you on the FA market Tim. I'm not sure I see a significant trade looming though either. The Wolves need to add some better depth than they have. Keep in mind they had one roster spot taken up by Pek all season who didn't play 1 minute. Next year having another player spot available plus the ability to have younger players get work in and even stashed in the D-league could help as well. What I said there isn't particularly inspiring and it may not be enough to make a jump people are hoping for but I don't even see a player as good as so thought Deng might have been coming here this summer. I won't be sad if it happens but FA isn't something I am really looking into. I'm more interested in the draft and hearing how Lavine and Belly are recovering. I'm more concerned about Belly because those foot injuries seeme to be tricky deals and Belly is a fairy big guy.
CoolBreeze44 wrote:Glenn Robinson got a mediocre Bucks team to the Eastern Conference finals where they lost in 7 games to the 76ers. Along the way they knocked off Tracy McGrady and Orlando. And Glenn wasn't even close to the athlete that Wiggins is. But the Big Dog was no slouch in his prime.
1. That team also had Sam Cassell and Ray Allen. And some think that in the era of nefarious NBA officiating... that series was one of the calamities.
2. Glenn Robinson was good immediately. (22 pts / 6 reb) But... he never really improved. 7 years later... he was at 22/7. There might be a very good reason for that... He signed a 10 yr/$68M contract after the draft. The NBA quickly revised the rookie salary scale to keep that from happening again. And teams were probably thankful too. Without the carrot of a big contract looming... Robinson was content to remain a solid to good but never great player.
Not the first time the Bucks and their small market asses we're shanghaied by Stern and his band of conspirators in the playoffs. Your Celtics we're the beneficiaries more than once. I read accounts that Stern was visibly upset when calls went against the 76ers in that series (not many did).
Regarding Robinson, remember he played 2 years at Purdue where he was a dominant college player. He came into the league as a fairly finished product. But he wasn't a great athlete and though it was disappointing, it wasn't entirely a surprise that he didn't improve that much.
CoolBreeze44 wrote:Glenn Robinson got a mediocre Bucks team to the Eastern Conference finals where they lost in 7 games to the 76ers. Along the way they knocked off Tracy McGrady and Orlando. And Glenn wasn't even close to the athlete that Wiggins is. But the Big Dog was no slouch in his prime.
1. That team also had Sam Cassell and Ray Allen. And some think that in the era of nefarious NBA officiating... that series was one of the calamities.
2. Glenn Robinson was good immediately. (22 pts / 6 reb) But... he never really improved. 7 years later... he was at 22/7. There might be a very good reason for that... He signed a 10 yr/$68M contract after the draft. The NBA quickly revised the rookie salary scale to keep that from happening again. And teams were probably thankful too. Without the carrot of a big contract looming... Robinson was content to remain a solid to good but never great player.
Not the first time the Bucks and their small market asses we're shanghaied by Stern and his band of conspirators in the playoffs. Your Celtics we're the beneficiaries more than once. I read accounts that Stern was visibly upset when calls went against the 76ers in that series (not many did).
Regarding Robinson, remember he played 2 years at Purdue where he was a dominant college player. He came into the league as a fairly finished product. But he wasn't a great athlete and though it was disappointing, it wasn't entirely a surprise that he didn't improve that much.
1987? That's the only year I can think of.
I know Milwaukee took Boston out one year... but they weren't very competitive in 2 other trips vs. Boston. Only in the 7-game 1987 series was it close.
[Note: I'm sure it was just convenience that the Bucks were moved to the Eastern Conference just as Magic arrived... clearing the way to the Lakers in the Finals every year in a very weak West.]
