Who Drops in the West?

[Lipoli390]

Adding Butler and Gibson, in addition to swapping out Rubio for Teague now has fans and pundits expecting the Wolves to end their record 14-year playoff drought and even contend for a top 4 position in the standings. But the Wolves had the 3rd worst record in the West last season. That means the Wolves have a lot of teams to climb over just to make the playoffs much less become a top 4 or 5 team in the West. Bottom line is this: For the Wolves to climb the standings into the playoffs teams will have to drop and to ascend even higher in the standings even more teams will have to drop.

So the question of the day is - which teams that finished ahead of the Wolves last season will drop behind the Wolves in the standings this upcoming season? When you take a close look at last season's West playoff teams, you can see that a Wolves climb up with standings will not be easy and is by no means a foregone conclusion. Barring some sort of horrible injuries, I can't see the Warriors or Rockets slipping. The Rockets have essentially the same team returning that won 55 games last season, but they've added one of the League's best PGs in Chris Paul. Now consider the following teams we need to jump ahead of to make the playoffs or better:

Clippers: Many seem to believe the Clippers will fall pretty far next season. I'm not so sure. Yes, they lost Chris Paul. But two of their three core stars in Jordan and Griffin are returning. And thought they've lost Paul, they've added Gallinari, Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams and Teodosic. Health with be the biggest issue for the Clippers given the injury history of both Griffin and Gallinari. But if those two guys stay healthy, then I don't know that we can expect the Clippers to slip much below last season's win total of 51.

Spurs: They won't have Parker for a good chunk of the season and they lost Dedmon. So they don't appear to be as strong as last season. But they still have their core guys in Leonard, Aldridge and Gasol, along with Danny Green and Pat Mills. They've added Rudy Gay and of course they still have the best head coach in the NBA. Will they win 61 games like last season? I tend to doubt it. But I'd be very surprised if they dropped below 50 wins.

Blazers: They won 41 games and made the playoffs last season. They haven't lost any significant contributors and are bringing back their core players in Lillard, McCollum, Aminu and Harkless. They've added Collins and Swanigan and they'll also have Nurkic for the whole season. I see them at least matching their 41 win total from last season and possibly exceeding it.

Nuggets: They won 41 games last season and have added Paul Millsap. I also expect Murray (the guy we should have drafted) having a breakout season. So it's likely in my view that the Nuggets will exceed last season's 41 win total.

Jazz: Losing Hayward and Hill should knock down their win total this season. But remember that they won 51 games, so they weren't a borderline team last season. They still have Gobert, INgles, Johnson, Favors, Burks and Exum. Their draft pick, Donovan Mitchell, looked really impressive in summer league. So while I don't expect them to win 50 games, I can see them winnning 40-42 games.

Memphis: A number of pundits are predicting a pretty big drop from the Grizz' 43 win total last season. But they'll still have their two best players returning - Conley and Gasol. They will likely retain J. Green and Tony Allen. They've also added Tyreke Evans, Ben McLemore and Ivan Rabb. So I don't know that we should expect them to fall very far if at all.

Then you have the Lakers. They were one of the two West Conference teams that actually finished below the Wolves last season. Nearly everyone seems to be predicting that the Lakers will finish near the bottom of the standings. I say, not so fast. I happen to believe that Ball is a transformational player -- the kind of talent who will likely have a positive impact as a rookie. And don't forget that the Lakers added Brook Lopez. Yes, he has value as an expiring contract, but he also plays at a very high level. They also added KCP. They have Randle, Clarson, Brewer and Deng returning with Ingram entering his second season. The additions of two rookies, Hart and Kuzma, will help also. So we can't assume that the Lakers will be a lottery team or a doormat for the Wolves everytime we play them.

[Logo [enjin:17474297]]

Remember if our Wolves go from 31 wins to the 51 wins that you predicted, some of those wins are going to come from some of those teams.

[Lipoli390]

Remember if our Wolves go from 31 wins to the 51 wins that you predicted, some of those wins are going to come from some of those teams.

You're right. But my prediction came before I took a long hard look at the rosters of the teams that finished ahead of is last season. I might revise my 51-win prediction downward before the season starts. I still like our chances of making the playoffs, but studying the Western Conference rosters of last year's Western Conference playoff teams is a sobering experience for any fan of last year's Western Conference lottery teams. Even more sobering for a Wolves fan to then look at a couple other lottery teams like the Nuggets, Pelicans and even the Lakers. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather be the Wolves than the Pelicans right now. But the Pelicans could really gel with a healthy Holiday if Cousins and Davis flourish together.

The Lakers will definitely be much better than last season with the additions of Ball and Lopez. The Wolves should definitely finish well ahead of them in the standings, but they won't be an easy out -- especially later in the season as Ball and Ingram continue to mature. What really sucks is the prospect of the Lakers signing Paul George next summer.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Lip, I've been fairly pessimistic all along. I frankly think we have a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs, which is very depressing when you think about how we upgraded our team. There is no doubt we are a better team, but a bunch of other Western Conference teams got better too.

On Memphis, don't forget they should have a completely healthy Chandler Parsons in the mix. Their 43 wins last season was largely done without any contributions from him.

I am a little less bullish on the Lakers because I think their defense will be terrible. Ball is going to get torched by opposing point guards and Ingram, Randle, et al have not proven to be very good defensively either. Lopez offers some paint protection but he is very slow afoot and will struggle guarding people in today's space and pace offenses.

Utah is going to be outstanding defensively. They may struggle scoring the ball, but they have a top 3 defense. I wouldn't count those guys out of the playoff mix.

It won't be easy...staying healthy will be key.

[thedoper]

The Blazers and Jazz drop. We are making the playoffs barring injury. Butler is a legit top 15 talent, and Towns is not far behind. The scale of Wiggins improvement is gravy. Teague is better than Rubio. There is no way we don't make the playoffs if we stay relatively healthy.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

The Lakers are garbage. They have no defense on almost that entire roster. We've seen what a top 10 offense with no defense looks like and it results in a bottom 3 finish. I think we are better than Portland, Denver, Utah, Memphis and LAC. Houston will take time to figure out the CP3/Harden relationship and they lost a lot of depth guys so they won't be running like a well oiled machine for a large chunk of the season so there are wins to steal from them. I think Memphis pending health and Denver are our real competition and Utah, LAC, Portland should finish below us. Utah lost a majority of it's offense this offseason. LAC will need to rely on an off injured Blake to do most of the playmaking and I think DJ is gonna take a huge offensive hit without CP3. Portland also has big time defensive issues with their backcourt and frontcourt. I predict GS, SA, HOU, OKC, MN, DEN, MEM and POR will be the playoff standings.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I'm with Khans on this one...something drastically wrong has to happen for the Wolves to not make the playoffs this year. I see only Golden State, Houston, the Spurs and possibly OkC as teams likely to have more wins than the Wolves this year. As someone posted above, the West is much stronger than last year, and thus some of those 41-45 win teams from last year are going to win far fewer this season...the Wolves will easily finish ahead of those teams. I see the Wolves and OkC battling for home court advantage, and the Clippers, Memphis, New Orleans and Portland battling for the 7th and 8th spots.

[Coolbreeze44]

The win prediction thread is going to be really interesting this year. I'm with Khans and LST on this one - I see a 5th place finish with a chance to crack the top 4. One thing I think you're going to see is minimal separation in the 3rd through 8th slots.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

The win prediction thread is going to be really interesting this year. I'm with Khans and LST on this one - I see a 5th place finish with a chance to crack the top 4. One thing I think you're going to see is minimal separation in the 3rd through 8th slots.

I see a distinct top 3, but I also see OkC and the Wolves quite a bit better than the teams below them. I think there will be little separation in the next 7 teams batlting for those last 3 playoff spots. I think there will be a few teams that are quite good but struggle to get to 35 wins...the West is that strong.

[KiwiMatt]

1. GSW
2. HOU
3. SAS
4. OKC
5. MIN
6. DEN
7. LAC
8. NOLA

That's how I see it. Top 3 in that order then OKC and MIN. I think Denver is the bogie team, they have great depth and could threaten us for 5th spot. LAC and NOLA round out the top 8. Can't see Utah making it after losing their best player in Gordon Hayward.