sjm34 wrote:I like a lot of what is posted here, but I also wonder how we are going to pay for all of this. I think we are sitting around 110 mil without crawfords player option added in. That still means we have to re-sign belly, which is likely to cost around 8 mil. I don't see how we add a full mle player to the roster and still fill in the final 4 or 5 bench spots. We are talking about a cap number of 125-130 mil.
We are going to have to move a big contract somewhere along the way this summer. Whether that is Wiggins, Teague, or Gorgui (unmovable) I don't know. I did hear that Memphis was open to trading their lottery pick. I wonder if a wiggins, Dieng for Parsons and pick deal could be worked out. I really don't want to part with Wig, but his contract makes it easier to consider.
You're right SJM. The Wolves are financially strapped. I think Q's right that we'll have to rely on the MLE to fill our two biggest bench needs - (1) a true 2-way wing and (2) a 3-point shooter. But it will take $8.5 million to do that in addition to the $8 million or so it will likely take to re-sign Belly. Hence, as you pointed out, the need to move one of our big contracts. And that means moving Gorgui, Teague or Wiggins. I don't think Teague's contract is moveable at all. Gorgui's probably isn't either. And I don't think we'd get good value in return for Wiggins at this point.
I disagree with you that Teague is unmovable, but I think he has more value at the trade deadline. I mean George Hill was traded and in my opinion Teague is better player and there is less of an injury concern with Teague. But are we going to get solid value back. And even though I think Tyus is a good player I don't think he is ready to start
The Cavs were desperate for a PG when they traded for Hill. But that is an example that provides some hope.
The salary problem is a serious one. With Wiggins salary, the Wolves payroll will be right around $115 million for 10 players with guaranteed contracts through next year. The Wolves can waive Cole Aldrich who has $2 million of his $6 million guaranteed and reduce the payroll by $4 million down to around $111 million for 9 players. Then you have to add the cap hold for our 1st round pick -- probably around $2 million. Meanwhile, the luxury tax threshold next year is expected to be around $123 million. So the Wolves will have around $10 million in headroom before hitting the luxury tax. There is no way this team will or should exceed the luxury tax threshold coming off an 8th place finish with another max player (KAT) on the horizon the following season. Simply re-signing Belly will take us close to the luxury tax. And we'll still have at least 4 roster spots to fill, which even at minimum salaries, will likely put us at or over the luxury tax without spending a dime of this team's MLE.
Given the NBA's salary-match requirements, trading Gorgui or Teague to reduce overall payroll significantly will require the Wolves to find a team that (1) has the cap room to absorb either player's salary without giving us comparable salary in return; and (2) wants either one badly enough to pay them what we're paying them for 2 more years in Teague's case or 3 more years in Gorgui's case. How likely is that? Not very. So honestly, I'm not sure what the Wolves will do. But when you really focus on the situation, it's not pretty.
I think the Wolves have to be willing to go into the Lux tax this coming season but they need to be very picky about the player/s that force them into that territory. I agree it's hard to see where they do much of any trimming. If they deal Teague they have to replace him with a good vet rotational PG at the very least. I spent some time looking at teams that have some bad salaries and really the best options I could find probably means bring back more salary if we don't sweeten the deal with a 1st round pick which both of us don't want to do. Ultimately we probably need to get something out of Dieng ourselves but I suppose you never know. We have to buy low on someone and get something out of them.
I think you're right, Monster. I don't see a realistic alternative to paying the luxury tax. I haven't looked for potential deals yet, but I suspect that when I do I'll come to the same conclusion as you.
Doesn't the mle get knocked down significantly if it pushes us into the lux tax? I think we will have to use the first rounder to try and unload Dieng, and I am not sure that will be enough.
We can find ways to avoid the tax next year but there is no way can we avoid it the following year with towns new max deal and butler probably opting out and looking for a 35-40m deal.
We should be asking ourselves if we ate going to be a championship caliber team in two years? It will depend on wiggins, towns, tyus, butler, patton and our next two draft picks and whoever we sign this off season. Teague and dieng contract will need to go in two years no matter what. If we can find takers this off season then we should do it.
sjm34 wrote:Doesn't the mle get knocked down significantly if it pushes us into the lux tax? I think we will have to use the first rounder to try and unload Dieng, and I am not sure that will be enough.
The amount of the mid-level exemption depends on what level of tax you are. The Wolves this season did not pay tax so they will have the the full non-tax payer exemption. The projection for this upcoming year is:
sjm34 wrote:Doesn't the mle get knocked down significantly if it pushes us into the lux tax? I think we will have to use the first rounder to try and unload Dieng, and I am not sure that will be enough.
Yes it does. That's another reason you don't want to go over the luxury tax threshold if you can help it. Beyond the financial consequence, you face certain operational limitations that can hurt your ability to make personnel moves.
sjm34 wrote:Doesn't the mle get knocked down significantly if it pushes us into the lux tax? I think we will have to use the first rounder to try and unload Dieng, and I am not sure that will be enough.
The amount of the mid-level exemption depends on what level of tax you are. The Wolves this season did not pay tax so they will have the the full non-tax payer exemption. The projection for this upcoming year is:
Non-taxpayer $8,568,000
Tax payer $5,292,000
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/info/salary_cap
That's right. The operational consequences woudn't kick in until afterwards.
worldK wrote:We can find ways to avoid the tax next year but there is no way can we avoid it the following year with towns new max deal and butler probably opting out and looking for a 35-40m deal.
We should be asking ourselves if we ate going to be a championship caliber team in two years? It will depend on wiggins, towns, tyus, butler, patton and our next two draft picks and whoever we sign this off season. Teague and dieng contract will need to go in two years no matter what. If we can find takers this off season then we should do it.
World - I agree that it will be impossible to avoid the tax the following season. But it will be really, really hard to avoid the tax next season without declining to re-sign Belly or foregoing use of the MLE.
worldK wrote:We can find ways to avoid the tax next year but there is no way can we avoid it the following year with towns new max deal and butler probably opting out and looking for a 35-40m deal.
We should be asking ourselves if we ate going to be a championship caliber team in two years? It will depend on wiggins, towns, tyus, butler, patton and our next two draft picks and whoever we sign this off season. Teague and dieng contract will need to go in two years no matter what. If we can find takers this off season then we should do it.
World - I agree that it will be impossible to avoid the tax the following season. But it will be really, really hard to avoid the tax next season without declining to re-sign Belly or foregoing use of the MLE.
One unlikely way to save some money is via Jamal Crawford. He is a guy that could be dealt away. Another possibility is he could opt out entirely or he could opt out and sign for less money. I don't think unless it's a real no-brainer deal they would want to move him because despite his faults on the court as a player he is a very popular dude and likely good guy to have around. Jon K said he didn't really know him well before he signed with the Wolves and heard he was a great guy etc. Jon told a story about early in Jamal's Wolves career someone bringing him a towel or something while they were talking to him and Jamal paused took the towel and held the persons arm and told him how much he appreciated it etc for a long moment in such sincerity it took Jon back. Jon said it was basically over the top but clear it was completely genuine and everything he has seen since then confirms it. Still this is a business so if they can see a way to improve they will do it. If Crawford opted out and just signed a vet min deal he would be giving up 2.3 million but he would save the Wolves over 3 million in cap space since I believe the vet min contracts for players with lots of device time don't count fully against the cap. Again this is all very unlikely but it's kinda fun to think about. The Wolves may need to get creative. They could also use staying under the Luxury tax as a bargaining tool with FAs.
There could be some ways the cap takes a jump after this year so it might not be a bad time if you can lock in some good players for a good price if they are willing to sign for 3 year deals...which they might now. If the Wolves can avoid paying another player too much money this offseason that might be a pretty good win in and of itself.
If we don't prove to be a contender next year, the guy to move at the deadline is Butler. Thibs will probably survive this offseason, but it's more likely he's gone after next year. I find it hard to believe Butler would re-up with the Wolves unless there is a chance to contend here. He will be leaving his prime and I'm sure a chance at a title will be his biggest motivator.
CoolBreeze44 wrote:If we don't prove to be a contender next year, the guy to move at the deadline is Butler. Thibs will probably survive this offseason, but it's more likely he's gone after next year. I find it hard to believe Butler would re-up with the Wolves unless there is a chance to contend here. He will be leaving his prime and I'm sure a chance at a title will be his biggest motivator.
