Q12543 wrote:It's funny, if you look at our offensive and defensive "4-factors" comparing last season to this season, we are quite similar with one exception: Turnovers. We had the lowest offensive turnover percentage in the league this year and the 5th best defensive turnover percentage.
So basically the main reason we are a much better team is because we out-possession our opponents. We certainly don't out shoot them!
I mentioned this stat earlier in the year. We were near the top in assist turnover ratio all year because of our extremely low turnover rate. Controlling the ball is huge and takes discipline. There is a common thread of old school coaches who try to exploit controlling the ball in the new NBA. If you look at the top 10 teams for low turnovers the coaches all seem to have a similar old school theme to their approach, though some have done more for offensive creativity than others (Casey and Pop stand out for this).
I think the biggest issue with our 3pt shooting is we just don't roll out our most potent offensive lineup. Teague/Butler/Wiggins/Belly/Towns. That lineup can play 5 out on offense, but we don't really know if they can hold out defensively. I think it could work against modern teams with Belly's ability to defend out on the perimeter, but it's just not something we can really know unless it's played more. That lineup played exactly 0 minutes this year from what I can find for lineup data on nbadotcom. That's ridiculous. Belly was a 41.5% 3pt shooter this year. Put him in the lineup with those other 4 and just give him free reign to make it rain from behind the arc. You can't guard all 5 of those guys. Taj played great this year with the starters, but at the same time guys like Belly and even Tyus are tailor made offensively to go around KAT, Butler and Wiggins because they don't need the ball, but when they get it they move it. I think there is a lot of offense left to be unlocked on this team that just won't be until we start managing the rotations like a real team would. Let Teague and Crawford run PnR's with Taj on the second unit while our primary unit let it fly and have tons of space to work with. Then Teague and Taj can close out the game defensively when we have a lead built up or god forbid we close a game with a potent offensive lineup rather than try to stack defense and just hang on for dear life like we normally do.
Q12543 wrote:It's funny, if you look at our offensive and defensive "4-factors" comparing last season to this season, we are quite similar with one exception: Turnovers. We had the lowest offensive turnover percentage in the league this year and the 5th best defensive turnover percentage.
So basically the main reason we are a much better team is because we out-possession our opponents. We certainly don't out shoot them!
I mentioned this stat earlier in the year. We were near the top in assist turnover ratio all year because of our extremely low turnover rate. Controlling the ball is huge and takes discipline. There is a common thread of old school coaches who try to exploit controlling the ball in the new NBA. If you look at the top 10 teams for low turnovers the coaches all seem to have a similar old school theme to their approach, though some have done more for offensive creativity than others (Casey and Pop stand out for this).
This is one area adding Teague and Jimmy were huge. They protect the ball. They combine for 4.3 turnovers a game and yet they handle the ball for a significant portion of the game. We basically cut out 2 turnovers per game with this team (part of that is also Towns protecting the ball better as well) while only losing 1 assist per game with the departure of Ricky.
khans2k5 wrote:I think the biggest issue with our 3pt shooting is we just don't roll out our most potent offensive lineup. Teague/Butler/Wiggins/Belly/Towns. That lineup can play 5 out on offense, but we don't really know if they can hold out defensively. I think it could work against modern teams with Belly's ability to defend out on the perimeter, but it's just not something we can really know unless it's played more. That lineup played exactly 0 minutes this year from what I can find for lineup data on nbadotcom. That's ridiculous. Belly was a 41.5% 3pt shooter this year. Put him in the lineup with those other 4 and just give him free reign to make it rain from behind the arc. You can't guard all 5 of those guys. Taj played great this year with the starters, but at the same time guys like Belly and even Tyus are tailor made offensively to go around KAT, Butler and Wiggins because they don't need the ball, but when they get it they move it. I think there is a lot of offense left to be unlocked on this team that just won't be until we start managing the rotations like a real team would. Let Teague and Crawford run PnR's with Taj on the second unit while our primary unit let it fly and have tons of space to work with. Then Teague and Taj can close out the game defensively when we have a lead built up or god forbid we close a game with a potent offensive lineup rather than try to stack defense and just hang on for dear life like we normally do.
When I read this i was like no way that could be true. So i went to cleaning the glass. And those 5 players played a grand total of 43 possessions together. The numbers are great scoring 122 pts per 100. To giving up 93 pts per 100. Sample size way to small though. Way to small.
That legit shocked me how little that lineup was used
What we do know is that the lineup of Teague-Wiggins-Bjelly-KAT-Taj had a net rating of +6.3, which is pretty damn good considering it doesn't include our best player.
Khans is right that both Bjelly and Tyus can blend in really well with any four of our starters. It's when you put them out there with Crawford and Dieng that things go to hell.....
Q12543 wrote:What we do know is that the lineup of Teague-Wiggins-Bjelly-KAT-Taj had a net rating of +6.3, which is pretty damn good considering it doesn't include our best player.
Khans is right that both Bjelly and Tyus can blend in really well with any four of our starters. It's when you put them out there with Crawford and Dieng that things go to hell.....
No matter the lineups it seems clear Belly should be playing more regardless of whether he is starting or coming off the bench. I know sometimes he isn't amazing but he is at worst a legit 6'10" 3 point shooter that doesn't suck on defense. Play him at least like 25mpg. I'm all for the mixing and matching of lineups with a guy like Teague playing with a different group although a I think he can actually be a good compliment if this team figures out how to play with each other. Tyus should play more also.
Q12543 wrote:What we do know is that the lineup of Teague-Wiggins-Bjelly-KAT-Taj had a net rating of +6.3, which is pretty damn good considering it doesn't include our best player.
Khans is right that both Bjelly and Tyus can blend in really well with any four of our starters. It's when you put them out there with Crawford and Dieng that things go to hell.....
No matter the lineups it seems clear Belly should be playing more regardless of whether he is starting or coming off the bench. I know sometimes he isn't amazing but he is at worst a legit 6'10" 3 point shooter that doesn't suck on defense. Play him at least like 25mpg. I'm all for the mixing and matching of lineups with a guy like Teague playing with a different group although a I think he can actually be a good compliment if this team figures out how to play with each other. Tyus should play more also.
Our starters have been fine to open and close games (when they have the legs). It's the in-between that needs to be managed better. The 5 man bench units just need to stop except for a few minutes at the end of the 3rd/beginning of the 4th to get the starting 5 more rest to close out the game. One or ideally 2 starters need to get the early pull and play with the bench unit. The only reason I like Teague more for that early hook is he can run a 2 man PnR game that Wiggins just can't at this point. And maybe it's Teague and Wiggins that come out for Tyus and Belly. I'm sure that would be effective as well, albeit it would rely much more heavily on Jimmy and Towns to carry the offense, but have Teague and Wiggins carry the second unit offense.
I asked something similar in a different thread. Why cant Belly be our Ryan Anderson? If he's shooting 40% on 4 attempts he should be getting more minutes and taking 6 or 7.
BizarroJerry wrote:I asked something similar in a different thread. Why cant Belly be our Ryan Anderson? If he's shooting 40% on 4 attempts he should be getting more minutes and taking 6 or 7.
He could possibly not be is streaky. He is shooting 34% overall the last 10 games
I have two concerns with how the Wolves played this season. First, was the terrible defense, including the poor defensive rebounding. Second, was an offensive that, in my view, underperformed relative to our offensive talent.
The team's poor defense is hard to diagnose. Part of it is not having a really good rim protector. Although KAT can and should play better defensively, he's never going to be a Rudy Gobert. So perhaps, as good as Taj has been, it would be better to pair KAT with a bona fide rim protector/shot-blocker. On the other hand, the Celtics were one of the League's best defensive teams and they don't have a rim-protector on their roster. Another part of our poor defense is our reliance on one of the League's worst defenders, Jamaal Crawford, as our main rotation player off the bench and only reserve wing. Teague is also a pretty poor defender, but that shouldn't be a surprise since he's never been knows for his defense. However, I think our defensive problems run deeper than the poor defensive of particular individual players. Much of the problem, in my view, stems from a coaching decision to focus the team's defense on defending mid and long-range twos, rather than defending the 3-point shot. Another part of the problem strikes me as the failure of our players to get in on the body of the guys their defending. As a result, opposing players can get comfortable against the Wolves, see the floor, maneuver and get their feet set on their shots.
I know the Wolves are 7th in points per game, which should be considered laudable. But I continue to maintain that, with players we have, our points would have been up in the range of the Warriors, Rockets and Cavs or at least the Pelicans. Overall, I'm convinced the Wolves have underachieved offensively because of their half-court, methodical iso style with lots of highly contested two-point shots late in the shot clock and too few three point attempts. The fact that the Wolves are last in the League in made three-pointers is telling.
We'll see what our Wolves are able to do against Houston in the playoffs this month. But looking ahead to next season, we need to see significant improvement on both sides of the ball. I'm assuming we'll never see Thibs move away from his iso style and add a lot more 3-point shooting to his offense. I also assume Thibs will continue to focus his defense on mid-range shots as he did all this season. But here are a few things Thibs can do to significantly improve the Wolves on both sides of the ball without having to fundamentally change in a way his stubborn psyche won't allow:
1. Add a true two-way high caliber wing to our bench and use Jamaal Crawford less
2. Add a real 3-point marksman to our roster and rotation.
3. Get KAT far more shots, including more 3-pointers, in the offense on a regular basis.
4. Add more Wiggins post-ups, cuts and corner threes to the offense with less one on 5 iso drives for Wiggins, which result too often in turnovers or bad contested 2-point attempts.
5. Give Belly more playing time and encourage him to take more 3-point shots, assuming Thibs re-signs Belly.
6. Allocate more playing time to Tyus Jones, including time on the court with Jeff Teague, who has publicly declared his desire to see Tyus get more playing time.
Adding a good 2-way SG or SF as our first wing off the bench and allocating less playing time to Jamaal will improve our defense. Allocating more playing time to Tyus will also improve our defense.
More shots for KAT and more playing time for Belly would improve our offense as would the addition of a 3-point marksman to our roster and rotation. Running more post-ups, off-ball cuts and corner threes through Wiggins will make him more efficient and improve the team's offense.
