Q12543 wrote:Man, I'm happy for Milwaukee. That is a franchise that has flown under the radar for a long time. Oh, they get in the playoffs now and again, but almost always lose in the first round. They have a legit MVP candidate on their hands now with Giannis and a pretty nice supporting cast.
Hey the wolves picked Bazz one pick ahead of him
Ugh. I HATED that pick when Flip made it. Then I warmed a bit to Bazz somewhere late in his rookie year and a little in his 2nd. I've been back to hating that pick for the last couple years. That being said, I certainly can't say at the time that I was hoping for Giannis. I had no clue whether he was even an NBA rotation level player.
I loved the Dieng pick at the time. Now I'm sort of neutral on it, as he never turned out to be nearly as good of a defender as I thought he would be. He's not bad, but somewhat limited in the positions he can guard. Obviously Gobert was the right pick in hindsight at that slot.
Here's the thing though....at what point do we determine that there is a massive cultural problem with this franchise. May be Giannis and/or Gobert never really develop here, so they never become as good as they have been for other teams.
Q12543 wrote:Man, I'm happy for Milwaukee. That is a franchise that has flown under the radar for a long time. Oh, they get in the playoffs now and again, but almost always lose in the first round. They have a legit MVP candidate on their hands now with Giannis and a pretty nice supporting cast.
Hey the wolves picked Bazz one pick ahead of him
Ugh. I HATED that pick when Flip made it. Then I warmed a bit to Bazz somewhere late in his rookie year and a little in his 2nd. I've been back to hating that pick for the last couple years. That being said, I certainly can't say at the time that I was hoping for Giannis. I had no clue whether he was even an NBA rotation level player.
I loved the Dieng pick at the time. Now I'm sort of neutral on it, as he never turned out to be nearly as good of a defender as I thought he would be. He's not bad, but somewhat limited in the positions he can guard. Obviously Gobert was the right pick in hindsight at that slot.
Here's the thing though....at what point do we determine that there is a massive cultural problem with this franchise. May be Giannis and/or Gobert never really develop here, so they never become as good as they have been for other teams.
I wanted McCollum, but given that Flip made the deal, I would have taken Giannis over Bazz. Of course, I wasn't predicting he'd become the great player he's already become. But it was clear to me by that time that we would need to start a rebuild and Giannis was the sort of super high upside freak with his combination of size, speed and skills you would want as part of a rebuild. Like you, I loved the Gorgui pick but although he's been solid, he hasn't lived up to my expectations. Where Flip really blew it was in selling the 26th pick for cash rather than using it to take Rudy Gobert -- a freakishly long player who was also fluid and skilled playing against high level competition in Europe. The better franchises end up with a Giannis or McCollum when presented with the opportunity and they don't sell first round picks, especially when obviously high upside prospects are available.
I see Giannis and Gorbert mentioned... and it brings up something I've been beating the drum about for quite awhile now... progressive growth. Many/most of the BEST players tend to show significant improvement early in their careers. It's not like they flip a switch in Year 4 or 5... or get better in one or two areas.
Jimmy Butler is another one who took a very similar path. Other All NBA players who fit the bill in one way or another...
Heck, going through the list, 11 of the 15 guys on the All NBA teams last season took a similar path.
- Isaiah Thomas is a bit of an exception with his career year after mostly level production for a few seasons. But he's an anomaly in so many ways, including being dismissed as expendable by every team he's played for.
- DeRozan drastically improved in Seasons 7 - 9. Interestingly, he's considered "overrated" by many despite the improvement.
- DeAndre Jordan has shown steady improvement... but not drastic improvement (offensively) like the others. He's a pick-and-dive specialist. He made the team because of Defense... we know KAT and Wiggins are not that type of player.
- John Wall showed improvement early, but it plateaued from seasons 4 - 6 before improvement last season.
SUMMARY:
A regression (or plateau) this season from either Wiggins or KAT should garner skepticism. Especially Wiggins who hasn't even made a significant leap yet to plateau. If he becomes an All NBA player, he's mostly on his own path, or following more in DeRozan's footprints, albeit with more early career success.
AbeVigodaLive wrote:I see Giannis and Gorbert mentioned... and it brings up something I've been beating the drum about for quite awhile now... progressive growth. Many/most of the BEST players tend to show significant improvement early in their careers. It's not like they flip a switch in Year 4 or 5... or get better in one or two areas.
Jimmy Butler is another one who took a very similar path. Other All NBA players who fit the bill in one way or another...
Heck, going through the list, 11 of the 15 guys on the All NBA teams last season took a similar path.
- Isaiah Thomas is a bit of an exception with his career year after mostly level production for a few seasons. But he's an anomaly in so many ways, including being dismissed as expendable by every team he's played for.
- DeRozan drastically improved in Seasons 7 - 9. Interestingly, he's considered "overrated" by many despite the improvement.
- DeAndre Jordan has shown steady improvement... but not drastic improvement (offensively) like the others. He's a pick-and-dive specialist. He made the team because of Defense... we know KAT and Wiggins are not that type of player.
- John Wall showed improvement early, but it plateaued from seasons 4 - 6 before improvement last season.
SUMMARY:
A regression (or plateau) this season from either Wiggins or KAT should garner skepticism. Especially Wiggins who hasn't even made a significant leap yet to plateau. If he becomes an All NBA player, he's mostly on his own path, or following more in DeRozan's footprints, albeit with more early career success.
I don't know, Abe...I think your data can be interpreted in a more favorable manner. Wig and KAT are entering their 4th and 3rd years, respectively. In their 4th seasons, each of the three players you cite are 10-16 percentage points higher in PER than they were in their rookie seasons, and for Giannis and Gobert, half of that improvement came in the 4th season. If KAT and Wig improve in a similar fashion and are 10-16 percentage points higher by the end of their 4th seasons compared to their rookie years, we may be looking at a championship team in 2018-9.
AbeVigodaLive wrote:Sometimes I don't know if LST is being sarcastic or not.
Nope, not being sarcastic at all. But maybe I misunderstood your narrative. I thought you were saying that you can't expect much improvement after the second year, but the numbers seem to refute that. Take the Freak, for instance. After year 2, he's an average player with a PER of 14.8. But then he improves in his 3rd year, and then takes a quantum leap in his 4th and 5th seasons. If Wig and KAT follow that pattern, we will be a very good team. But again, maybe I missed your point.
AbeVigodaLive wrote:Sometimes I don't know if LST is being sarcastic or not.
Nope, not being sarcastic at all. But maybe I misunderstood your narrative. I thought you were saying that you can't expect much improvement after the second year, but the numbers seem to refute that. Take the Freak, for instance. After year 2, he's an average player with a PER of 14.8. But then he improves in his 3rd year, and then takes a quantum leap in his 4th and 5th seasons. If Wig and KAT follow that pattern, we will be a very good team. But again, maybe I missed your point.
The majority of the best players show very measurable, identifiable, consistent statistical improvement every season early in their careers.
Towns certainly fits that mold from Year 1 to Year 2. We'll see what happens this year. To be fair, there's only so much higher he could go offensively.
On the back end of a BTB, the Thunder beat the hapless Bulls by 32 in Chicago...and the Bulls only get 69 points! On a more positive note, Kris Dunn returned to the court and scored 8 points on 4-9 shooting. I'm cheering for the kid and hope he takes the starting PG job away from Jerian Grant.
I just started watching the Portland Suns game a few minutes ago. This Mike James dude looks plenty decent. I was a bit surprised this game is this close. I wish Tyson Chandler could teach our bigs to screen and go to the basket.
