8th seed is a Failure

[Lipoli390]

Interesting discussion! Too lazy to look it up... is Crawford on a two year deal? Btw. GS didn't show up tonight... so much better to play them than Houston in first round...

Yes, Crawford's on a 2-year deal. And yes, much better to finish 7th than 8th. Still hoping for a Wolves win and a Pelicans loss tomorrow night!

[kekgeek]

I think the defensive atrociousness has to fall on Thibs at some point. We have players who can or should be able to play defense. Butler and Taj have both been good to great in the past. Wiggins and Towns have the physical ability to play defense. Then you have to also realize Thibs is the one who brought the players in/extended.

We can't change the players without taking a step back. Wiggins is going to be overpaid for what he has produced this season. KAT is a baller and exceptional talent on offense, obviously you have to build around him. But his defense has been lagging behind. Butler can and has played great defense so he's not "the problem."

You can't have a bottom 5 defense with payers who should perform better without having some kind of problem.

I expected the defense to be better. I think we all did.

When Andrew Wiggins is on the without Jamal Crawford what is 68% of possessions the wolves have a defensive rating of 106.0 what would put us at 15 in the NBA in defensive rating. When Jamal Crawford is with Andrew Wiggins what is 32% of the possessions the defensive rating balloons to 123.5 pts per 100 possessions what would be the worst team in the NBA by 13 pts per 100 possessions.

When KAT is on the court without Jamal Crawford what is 72% of possession the wolves have a def rating of 106.9 what would be 16th in the NBA. But when Jamal plays with KAT 28% of possessions the Wolves defense once again balloons to 117.1 once again would be the worst team in the NBA by 7 pts per possession.

When KAT and Wiggins are together in any lineup that does not have Crawford in it we have a def rating of 106.5 what would be the 15th rated team in the NBA but when you add Crawford into lineups that include KAT and Wiggins. The Wolves defensive sky rockets once again to 121.7. Almost 12 pts worse than the worst NBA team in the League and 15 pts worse in any other lineup those to play together without Crawford.

I think we all agree that our best two defenders are Taj and Jimmy Butler. The wolves Defensive rating when those 2 are on the court minus Jamal we have a def rating of 105.0 what would be the 11th best defense in the NBA. Now if we add crawford to those two the wolves defense is 112.9 once again the worst team in the NBA.

I know it is hard to blame one guy on the defensive struggles. But it doesn't matter the lineup we are a middle of the road defense when Crawford is not on the court but we are the worst team in the NBA in any lineup Crawford is on the court.

Now Towns and Wiggins have a ways to go defensively and they are not perfect but they are an average NBA defense in any other lineup that dosen't involve Crawford. Now if you want to blame Thibs for not finding another wing fine. But a huge part of the terrible defense goes on the shoulders of one player and that is Crawford

To paraphrase the late Denny Green, Jamal Crawford was what we thought he was. 17 seasons in the NBA were a large enough sample size to conclude that he was a terrible defender. I can't decide if I want to blame the POBO for signing him when better defensive options were available, or the coach for playing him almost 21 MPG.

Exactly! Then there's Jeff Teague. I actually like him and he's grown on me a bit. But he's not a good defender and is a low-volume 35.6 % three-point shooter. Signing his top 3-year $19 million year contract given this team's need for defense and three-point shooting belongs in the PBO mistake column.

We are in the 90th percentile in the NBA in offense when Jeff Teague is on the court. We are in the 72 percentile in pt differential when Jeff Teague is on the court (So above average). We are not as good defensively when he is on the court we are in the 27th percentile but when Crawford is off the court and Teague plays we are in the 47th percentil defensively and our defense with starters is in the 50th percentil so dead average NBA defense. So we are one of the best offensives in the NBA when Teague is on the court and dead average on defense when he is on the court minus Crawford (we are 89th percentile in lineups on offense with Teague and without Crawford.)

Interesting stats, Geek. But these stats have their limits on what they tell us. Based on these stats, Jamaal Crawford is singularly responsible for the Wolves finishing 8th or 9th instead of 3rd or 4th. As bad as Crawford has been defensively, that doesn't hold up. Was Crawford in his 17 minutes the main reason we lost at home to the Suns or was it Jeff Teague in his 30+ minutes going 1-12 from the field? Was Crawford responsible for our road loss to Atlanta or was it Butler shooting 5-19, and Wiggins shooting 5-16 with nothing from Gorgui off the bench? Otherwise, I guess Thibs the PBO really screwed up putting our bench together. Or maybe he screwed up in how used our bench. If it's all about Crawford, he's Thibs' guy. Thibs make him his one wing acquisition in the off season and Thibs has stubbornly made Crawford his go-to guy off the bench.

Of course we can go game to game and see players struggling and why we lost some games. I am just doing some deep diving on season stats and it has just been really eye opening to me. In Crawford top 8 lineups this year we are a minus in pt differential in 5 of them and a 6th one of .1+. We have a lineup this year of Tague, Crawford, Wiggins, Gibson and Gorgui has a pt differential of -45.8 pts per 100 possessions what is in the 0th percentile. (to be fair on that lineup small sample size 147 possessions).

Of course going game to game we can find players who struggled and are a main reason why we lost that specific game but as a general statement the Wolves have been a damn good team when Crawford doesn't play and every one of our players defensive numbers go from league average/above average (in Tyus case one of the best defensive teams in the NBA) to the worst NBA defense in the NBA by a large margin.

Been more eye opening than anything, and you can learn based on the eye test also and numbers don't tell the whole story.

[kekgeek]

Interesting discussion! Too lazy to look it up... is Crawford on a two year deal? Btw. GS didn't show up tonight... so much better to play them than Houston in first round...

Yes, Crawford's on a 2-year deal. And yes, much better to finish 7th than 8th. Still hoping for a Wolves win and a Pelicans loss tomorrow night!

Isn't that 2nd year a player option. I know earlier in the year he was vocal on his lack of role on the team. Maybe he opts out (I do really hope) and we can give those minutes to a MLE guy/Rookie/MGH.

And yes go Wolves and Pelicans or Grizzlies. I actually think we have a shot against the Warriors. Just imagine fast forwarding 2 weeks and the Wolves have upset the Warriors. I think we would all turn around and say this forum was for not and who knows Ricky vs Wolves in the 2nd round (Ok back to reality Kek)

[Lipoli390]

Interesting discussion! Too lazy to look it up... is Crawford on a two year deal? Btw. GS didn't show up tonight... so much better to play them than Houston in first round...

Yes, Crawford's on a 2-year deal. And yes, much better to finish 7th than 8th. Still hoping for a Wolves win and a Pelicans loss tomorrow night!

Isn't that 2nd year a player option. I know earlier in the year he was vocal on his lack of role on the team. Maybe he opts out (I do really hope) and we can give those minutes to a MLE guy/Rookie/MGH.

And yes go Wolves and Pelicans or Grizzlies. I actually think we have a shot against the Warriors. Just imagine fast forwarding 2 weeks and the Wolves have upset the Warriors. I think we would all turn around and say this forum was for not and who knows Ricky vs Wolves in the 2nd round (Ok back to reality Kek)

I think you're right about Crawford's 2nd year option. Unfortunately, I'm not optimistic about Jamaal opting out.

I honestly think this Wolves team is talented enough to give the Warriors without Curry a good fight. The way the Warriors have been playing lately, it's not crazy to think of the Wolves possibly winning that series.

[Monster]

Interesting discussion! Too lazy to look it up... is Crawford on a two year deal? Btw. GS didn't show up tonight... so much better to play them than Houston in first round...

Yes, Crawford's on a 2-year deal. And yes, much better to finish 7th than 8th. Still hoping for a Wolves win and a Pelicans loss tomorrow night!

Isn't that 2nd year a player option. I know earlier in the year he was vocal on his lack of role on the team. Maybe he opts out (I do really hope) and we can give those minutes to a MLE guy/Rookie/MGH.

And yes go Wolves and Pelicans or Grizzlies. I actually think we have a shot against the Warriors. Just imagine fast forwarding 2 weeks and the Wolves have upset the Warriors. I think we would all turn around and say this forum was for not and who knows Ricky vs Wolves in the 2nd round (Ok back to reality Kek)

I think you're right about Crawford's 2nd year option. Unfortunately, I'm not optimistic about Jamaal opting out.

I honestly think this Wolves team is talented enough to give the Warriors without Curry a good fight. The way the Warriors have been playing lately, it's not crazy to think of the Wolves possibly winning that series.

It is a player option but even if he opts out I don't think that helps a whole lot. As bad as some of those numbers are Crawford still has value in this league. He opts put them you basically have to hoe some guy accepts the vet min that's as good as him or whatever. Well...I'd hope Rose takes that type of deal actually and if the right other players were added that would actually make some sense. The problem with Crawford is that there isn't depth behind him and also it doesn't seem like there is players and or a system to get more winning basketball out of him. Remember when People hated JJ Barea? He went back to Dallas and has been a solid player for them. I think Crawford can still have value but there needs to be more around him AND Thibs needs to be willing to sit him if he isn't getting it going etc.

[mjs34]

First, AP guy has tweeted that Ricky and Thibs didn't get along. Saying he liked it here is not accurate based on the information we had when Ricky was dealt. He may have been fine with his teammates, but he and Thibs never worked. Second, holding contracts that never actually went through against someone is dumb. It didn't happen. Move on. Third, who knows what Patton will be able to do. You guys are just declaring him a bust without even giving him one offseason or even a real game to play in the NBA. He's a mobile big. None of our other bigs outside of Towns can say that so he potentially brings useful skills to our team as it exists. We shouldn't be trying to get slower with big plodding defenders next to Towns. We should be pushing the pace with our mobility.

Teague has been really solid for us this year. He's statistically better than Ricky in every offensive category except FT% and his steals are basically the same. You guys are vastly overrating Ricky's defensive impact. He consistently left our bigs out to dry by not being able to fight around screens effectively. It's taken the best big in the game to watch his back to let him gamble without hurting his team like he did us. Towns will never be Gobert. 1

If you are telling me to pick between Ricky and 5 million in cap or Teague and a first round pick I'm taking option 2. You have to take that chance when you know you are going to run into money issues with 3 max guys on the team. If you want to talk about overlooking something, how about the part where Ricky's up for a new deal next summer. You know the summer where Towns extension would kick in and Jimmy needs to be paid as well. Frankly Ricky probably would have be let go at that point because he'd want something in the 20 million range and Tyus will be much cheaper on his extension and then you have nothing to show for it.

RIcky liked it here, but he was getting tired of hearing that Thibs was trying to move him.

That CONTRACT that didn't go through shows his lack of talent evaluation. Gorgui's deal did go through.

Nobody knows what Patton will be able to do, but we do know he didn't show enough to get on the floor even when we were short handed, and I would consider Belly a mobile big. Our plodding centers aren't the reason for our slow offense, it is Thibs antiquated system.

You are vastly overrating Teague's offense.

Our bigs left Ricky out to dry, not the other way around. If you can't see that Towns and Gs inability to get there butts out of the paint and show on the PnR was our problem, I don't know what to say.

I doubt Ricky would see anywhere close to 20 mil, because there isn't a market out there, but if we worried about money due to 3 max deals, the 19 mil deal that Teague already has isn't going to be helping things. Tyus hasn't shown the ability to be a starting PG in this league.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Making the playoffs is a success. That was the overall goal this year. If the Wolves win at home against the Nuggets securing a post-season spot, then that is an achievement. Results matter to me more than aesthetics. Always have, always will. I'll always take wins over a highlight reel. And I'm incredibly tired of discussing the Wolves offense because it's elite in yielding points and doing so efficiently despite going against modern strategy.

I need to see how this team plays -- and how Thibs adjusts -- once the post-season starts along with another off-season to tinker with the roster. I've preached all year about the desperate need for another wing. I believe had Thibs had the MLE to work with, we would have filled that hole. He has his work cut out for him, and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I'll make that judgement after the 2018-19 season plays out.

[AbeVigodaLive]

If you believe in the players, drop the coach.
If you believe in the coach, trade some of the players.

Anything other than that and we'll see the same again next year.

The rockets made waves because they got a coach that would make better use of their players and morey got the role players to support that vision.

Thibs may have been a good coach, but hasn't been good in building a team.

It works both ways. Personally, I like D'Antoni. Those Steve Nash-led teams captivated me and recaptured my love for NBA basketball. They are a large part of the reason I'm posting on an NBA message board.

But ask fans in LA or NY what they think of D'Antoni. Remember, he was being widely panned after those two stints. Was he really a bad coach? Or was it a bad fit?

D'Antoni + Nash/Harden = magic.
D'Antoni + Carmelo/Bryant = meh to lousy.

Give Thibs an entire team of Butler and Gibson types... and get out of the way. They might be awesome. But this team only goes as far as KAT and Wiggins. And I don't know if he's reached them in the same way. Checking Wiggins offensive regression and the team's dismal defensive ratings... I'd say no.

So in the end... is that ALL on Thibs?

He may be caustic. Annoying. Smelly. Et al. But if he asks a player to do something. And that player refuses to do it consistently for 163 games and counting... is that all on the coach?

Even though I acknowledge the importance of coaching... ultimately... the best players win games. And the Wolves best players haven't been good enough to win games over the past (xx) years.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Interesting discussion! Too lazy to look it up... is Crawford on a two year deal? Btw. GS didn't show up tonight... so much better to play them than Houston in first round...

Yes, Crawford's on a 2-year deal. And yes, much better to finish 7th than 8th. Still hoping for a Wolves win and a Pelicans loss tomorrow night!

Isn't that 2nd year a player option. I know earlier in the year he was vocal on his lack of role on the team. Maybe he opts out (I do really hope) and we can give those minutes to a MLE guy/Rookie/MGH.

And yes go Wolves and Pelicans or Grizzlies. I actually think we have a shot against the Warriors. Just imagine fast forwarding 2 weeks and the Wolves have upset the Warriors. I think we would all turn around and say this forum was for not and who knows Ricky vs Wolves in the 2nd round (Ok back to reality Kek)

I think you're right about Crawford's 2nd year option. Unfortunately, I'm not optimistic about Jamaal opting out.

I honestly think this Wolves team is talented enough to give the Warriors without Curry a good fight. The way the Warriors have been playing lately, it's not crazy to think of the Wolves possibly winning that series.

It is a player option but even if he opts out I don't think that helps a whole lot. As bad as some of those numbers are Crawford still has value in this league. He opts put them you basically have to hoe some guy accepts the vet min that's as good as him or whatever. Well...I'd hope Rose takes that type of deal actually and if the right other players were added that would actually make some sense. The problem with Crawford is that there isn't depth behind him and also it doesn't seem like there is players and or a system to get more winning basketball out of him. Remember when People hated JJ Barea? He went back to Dallas and has been a solid player for them. I think Crawford can still have value but there needs to be more around him AND Thibs needs to be willing to sit him if he isn't getting it going etc.

I really hate watching Jamal Crawford play basketball.

But do the Wolves win that one-point game vs. tanking Dallas without him last week? That wasn't the only time he bailed out the team with his gunner mentality/ability.

Sure. It costs the teams quite a bit, too. That's always the case with guys like Crawford. But they do have value in this league. The rub is when those guys are at a place in their careers where they expect (and get) guaranteed minutes no matter how they're playing. Or when a team doesn't have viable options behind them.

But get ready... IF the Wolves make the playoffs... I can see where our discussions are gonna go after seeing these stats...

Crawford has shot above 39% in the playoffs ONCE in 7 trips. (last season at 42%). He's a career 38% playoff shooter. He's been a negative via advanced stats both offensively and defensively in the playoffs.

[Monster]

If you believe in the players, drop the coach.
If you believe in the coach, trade some of the players.

Anything other than that and we'll see the same again next year.

The rockets made waves because they got a coach that would make better use of their players and morey got the role players to support that vision.

Thibs may have been a good coach, but hasn't been good in building a team.

It works both ways. Personally, I like D'Antoni. Those Steve Nash-led teams captivated me and recaptured my love for NBA basketball. They are a large part of the reason I'm posting on an NBA message board.

But ask fans in LA or NY what they think of D'Antoni. Remember, he was being widely panned after those two stints. Was he really a bad coach? Or was it a bad fit?

D'Antoni + Nash/Harden = magic.
D'Antoni + Carmelo/Bryant = meh to lousy.

Give Thibs an entire team of Butler and Gibson types... and get out of the way. They might be awesome. But this team only goes as far as KAT and Wiggins. And I don't know if he's reached them in the same way. Checking Wiggins offensive regression and the team's dismal defensive ratings... I'd say no.

So in the end... is that ALL on Thibs?

He may be caustic. Annoying. Smelly. Et al. But if he asks a player to do something. And that player refuses to do it consistently for 163 games and counting... is that all on the coach?

Even though I acknowledge the importance of coaching... ultimately... the best players win games. And the Wolves best players haven't been good enough to win games over the past (xx) years.

Good points I absolutely agree with you. D'Antoni at different points has come offf like a real dick so I've not been a fan of his and I thought he had a bad situation for him at those other stops. Houston is a terrific fit for him. D'Antoni and Harden are doing something special plus the front office had been doing things that fit with what he does well long before the even hired him.

So...when it comes to fit with Thibs and this roster...it's another dichotomy. I don't think he is an imperfect fit. Some parts of this roster fit him and I'm not just talking about Butler and Gibson. On the other hand some stuff doesn't fit. I think part of the problem about this team is that for years it hasn't had an identity and a lot of that was it had a bunch of unique (sometimes bad) players that didn't really fit together in one way or another. And then when some things might have sort of been coming together there were injuries. It's fair to blame coaching or GMs for some of the identity but it's also difficult when you are trying to build something and you have different GMs and coaches and it wasn't that long ago the Wolves were a complete rebuild and they were just looking to acquire talent any way possible. There are coaches people say are having success with certain talent etc and that's true but Thibs and Layden have been here for just under 2 years some of those other organizations have had their coach in place for 4 years and often the front office for longer. These things can take time. I get the people that don't believe Thibs and Layden are heading in the right direction but this isn't like when we had basically B squad guys in these key positions (that's being nice) after losing Flip in Milt and Sam Mitchell and there was a guy highly regarded like Thibs available. No it's basically guys at best as well regarded as Thibs only a different flavor.