Game Report - Win & In

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I asked something similar in a different thread. Why cant Belly be our Ryan Anderson? If he's shooting 40% on 4 attempts he should be getting more minutes and taking 6 or 7.

Jerry, He could be, but Anderson gets a lot of shots because teams have to work really hard to contain James Harden (and now Chris Paul too). Butler, Wiggins, Tyus Jones and Jamaal Crawford don't have nearly the same gravitational pull as these other guys, so it's hard to envision Bjelly getting the volume of 3's that Ryan Anderson takes. But yeah, I think we all agree Bjelly could use a few more minutes, especially with the starters.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Some really good thoughts from Kahns and Monster.

I have two concerns with how the Wolves played this season. First, was the terrible defense, including the poor defensive rebounding. Second, was an offensive that, in my view, underperformed relative to our offensive talent.

The team's poor defense is hard to diagnose. Part of it is not having a really good rim protector. Although KAT can and should play better defensively, he's never going to be a Rudy Gobert. So perhaps, as good as Taj has been, it would be better to pair KAT with a bona fide rim protector/shot-blocker. On the other hand, the Celtics were one of the League's best defensive teams and they don't have a rim-protector on their roster. Another part of our poor defense is our reliance on one of the League's worst defenders, Jamaal Crawford, as our main rotation player off the bench and only reserve wing. Teague is also a pretty poor defender, but that shouldn't be a surprise since he's never been knows for his defense. However, I think our defensive problems run deeper than the poor defensive of particular individual players. Much of the problem, in my view, stems from a coaching decision to focus the team's defense on defending mid and long-range twos, rather than defending the 3-point shot. Another part of the problem strikes me as the failure of our players to get in on the body of the guys their defending. As a result, opposing players can get comfortable against the Wolves, see the floor, maneuver and get their feet set on their shots.

I know the Wolves are 7th in points per game, which should be considered laudable. But I continue to maintain that, with players we have, our points would have been up in the range of the Warriors, Rockets and Cavs or at least the Pelicans. Overall, I'm convinced the Wolves have underachieved offensively because of their half-court, methodical iso style with lots of highly contested two-point shots late in the shot clock and too few three point attempts. The fact that the Wolves are last in the League in made three-pointers is telling.

We'll see what our Wolves are able to do against Houston in the playoffs this month. But looking ahead to next season, we need to see significant improvement on both sides of the ball. I'm assuming we'll never see Thibs move away from his iso style and add a lot more 3-point shooting to his offense. I also assume Thibs will continue to focus his defense on mid-range shots as he did all this season. But here are a few things Thibs can do to significantly improve the Wolves on both sides of the ball without having to fundamentally change in a way his stubborn psyche won't allow:

1. Add a true two-way high caliber wing to our bench and use Jamaal Crawford less

2. Add a real 3-point marksman to our roster and rotation.

3. Get KAT far more shots, including more 3-pointers, in the offense on a regular basis.

4. Add more Wiggins post-ups, cuts and corner threes to the offense with less one on 5 iso drives for Wiggins, which result too often in turnovers or bad contested 2-point attempts.

5. Give Belly more playing time and encourage him to take more 3-point shots, assuming Thibs re-signs Belly.

6. Allocate more playing time to Tyus Jones, including time on the court with Jeff Teague, who has publicly declared his desire to see Tyus get more playing time.

Adding a good 2-way SG or SF as our first wing off the bench and allocating less playing time to Jamaal will improve our defense. Allocating more playing time to Tyus will also improve our defense.

More shots for KAT and more playing time for Belly would improve our offense as would the addition of a 3-point marksman to our roster and rotation. Running more post-ups, off-ball cuts and corner threes through Wiggins will make him more efficient and improve the team's offense.

Lip, A few comments on your ideas...

- I think #1 and #2 will have to be the same player using the MLE, right? Not sure how we fit both needs within the budget we have.....

- On #3, yes, get KAT more touches all over the floor. Run more handoff action with him, more corner sets, more of everything....he is one of the most efficient scorers in basketball, up there with Durant, Curry, and Harden. He absolutely needs to become the focal point along with Butler.

- On #4, yes, occasional post-ups for Andrew makes sense, but not when he catches the ball 12+ feet from the hoop. It has to be quick-hitters where he actually has deeper position and can take that little jump hook. Otherwise he ends up taking those super hard bail out shots, fading away with a hand in his face. Yes, more cuts and spot ups. I think putting him as the ball handler in pick and roll should be dropped as well as perimeter isolation plays. This is when he is at his most inefficient.

- #5, agree....although I don't think Bjelly is too hesitant to pull the trigger. He needs to be out there with players that can create the space for him.

- #6, agree with this too....One thing I have mentioned a few times is for Teague to become our 6th man and start Tyus. Not all of your 5 best players need to start.

[Monster]

Some really good thoughts from Kahns and Monster.

I have two concerns with how the Wolves played this season. First, was the terrible defense, including the poor defensive rebounding. Second, was an offensive that, in my view, underperformed relative to our offensive talent.

The team's poor defense is hard to diagnose. Part of it is not having a really good rim protector. Although KAT can and should play better defensively, he's never going to be a Rudy Gobert. So perhaps, as good as Taj has been, it would be better to pair KAT with a bona fide rim protector/shot-blocker. On the other hand, the Celtics were one of the League's best defensive teams and they don't have a rim-protector on their roster. Another part of our poor defense is our reliance on one of the League's worst defenders, Jamaal Crawford, as our main rotation player off the bench and only reserve wing. Teague is also a pretty poor defender, but that shouldn't be a surprise since he's never been knows for his defense. However, I think our defensive problems run deeper than the poor defensive of particular individual players. Much of the problem, in my view, stems from a coaching decision to focus the team's defense on defending mid and long-range twos, rather than defending the 3-point shot. Another part of the problem strikes me as the failure of our players to get in on the body of the guys their defending. As a result, opposing players can get comfortable against the Wolves, see the floor, maneuver and get their feet set on their shots.

I know the Wolves are 7th in points per game, which should be considered laudable. But I continue to maintain that, with players we have, our points would have been up in the range of the Warriors, Rockets and Cavs or at least the Pelicans. Overall, I'm convinced the Wolves have underachieved offensively because of their half-court, methodical iso style with lots of highly contested two-point shots late in the shot clock and too few three point attempts. The fact that the Wolves are last in the League in made three-pointers is telling.

We'll see what our Wolves are able to do against Houston in the playoffs this month. But looking ahead to next season, we need to see significant improvement on both sides of the ball. I'm assuming we'll never see Thibs move away from his iso style and add a lot more 3-point shooting to his offense. I also assume Thibs will continue to focus his defense on mid-range shots as he did all this season. But here are a few things Thibs can do to significantly improve the Wolves on both sides of the ball without having to fundamentally change in a way his stubborn psyche won't allow:

1. Add a true two-way high caliber wing to our bench and use Jamaal Crawford less

2. Add a real 3-point marksman to our roster and rotation.

3. Get KAT far more shots, including more 3-pointers, in the offense on a regular basis.

4. Add more Wiggins post-ups, cuts and corner threes to the offense with less one on 5 iso drives for Wiggins, which result too often in turnovers or bad contested 2-point attempts.

5. Give Belly more playing time and encourage him to take more 3-point shots, assuming Thibs re-signs Belly.

6. Allocate more playing time to Tyus Jones, including time on the court with Jeff Teague, who has publicly declared his desire to see Tyus get more playing time.

Adding a good 2-way SG or SF as our first wing off the bench and allocating less playing time to Jamaal will improve our defense. Allocating more playing time to Tyus will also improve our defense.

More shots for KAT and more playing time for Belly would improve our offense as would the addition of a 3-point marksman to our roster and rotation. Running more post-ups, off-ball cuts and corner threes through Wiggins will make him more efficient and improve the team's offense.

Lip, A few comments on your ideas...

- I think #1 and #2 will have to be the same player using the MLE, right? Not sure how we fit both needs within the budget we have.....

- On #3, yes, get KAT more touches all over the floor. Run more handoff action with him, more corner sets, more of everything....he is one of the most efficient scorers in basketball, up there with Durant, Curry, and Harden. He absolutely needs to become the focal point along with Butler.

- On #4, yes, occasional post-ups for Andrew makes sense, but not when he catches the ball 12+ feet from the hoop. It has to be quick-hitters where he actually has deeper position and can take that little jump hook. Otherwise he ends up taking those super hard bail out shots, fading away with a hand in his face. Yes, more cuts and spot ups. I think putting him as the ball handler in pick and roll should be dropped as well as perimeter isolation plays. This is when he is at his most inefficient.

- #5, agree....although I don't think Bjelly is too hesitant to pull the trigger. He needs to be out there with players that can create the space for him.

- #6, agree with this too....One thing I have mentioned a few times is for Teague to become our 6th man and start Tyus. Not all of your 5 best players need to start.

Q I agree that signing 1 player with the mid level may need to fix a bunch Lip's good points there is the possibility with so little money going around you could get 2 players for that mid level split up. It's also possible we end up with a draft pick or other young player that can actually help us. Is it likely? Maybe not but it's also far from unprecedented.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I asked something similar in a different thread. Why cant Belly be our Ryan Anderson? If he's shooting 40% on 4 attempts he should be getting more minutes and taking 6 or 7.

Jerry, He could be, but Anderson gets a lot of shots because teams have to work really hard to contain James Harden (and now Chris Paul too). Butler, Wiggins, Tyus Jones and Jamaal Crawford don't have nearly the same gravitational pull as these other guys, so it's hard to envision Bjelly getting the volume of 3's that Ryan Anderson takes. But yeah, I think we all agree Bjelly could use a few more minutes, especially with the starters.

Belly still hesitates as well so he might already have the opportunities for volume. How many times have we seen him pass up open shots or pump fake nobody to give the defender time to recover? Anderson just chucks if there's any space and I think that's the main difference.

[Coolbreeze44]

Some really good thoughts from Kahns and Monster.

I have two concerns with how the Wolves played this season. First, was the terrible defense, including the poor defensive rebounding. Second, was an offensive that, in my view, underperformed relative to our offensive talent.

The team's poor defense is hard to diagnose. Part of it is not having a really good rim protector. Although KAT can and should play better defensively, he's never going to be a Rudy Gobert. So perhaps, as good as Taj has been, it would be better to pair KAT with a bona fide rim protector/shot-blocker. On the other hand, the Celtics were one of the League's best defensive teams and they don't have a rim-protector on their roster. Another part of our poor defense is our reliance on one of the League's worst defenders, Jamaal Crawford, as our main rotation player off the bench and only reserve wing. Teague is also a pretty poor defender, but that shouldn't be a surprise since he's never been knows for his defense. However, I think our defensive problems run deeper than the poor defensive of particular individual players. Much of the problem, in my view, stems from a coaching decision to focus the team's defense on defending mid and long-range twos, rather than defending the 3-point shot. Another part of the problem strikes me as the failure of our players to get in on the body of the guys their defending. As a result, opposing players can get comfortable against the Wolves, see the floor, maneuver and get their feet set on their shots.

I know the Wolves are 7th in points per game, which should be considered laudable. But I continue to maintain that, with players we have, our points would have been up in the range of the Warriors, Rockets and Cavs or at least the Pelicans. Overall, I'm convinced the Wolves have underachieved offensively because of their half-court, methodical iso style with lots of highly contested two-point shots late in the shot clock and too few three point attempts. The fact that the Wolves are last in the League in made three-pointers is telling.

We'll see what our Wolves are able to do against Houston in the playoffs this month. But looking ahead to next season, we need to see significant improvement on both sides of the ball. I'm assuming we'll never see Thibs move away from his iso style and add a lot more 3-point shooting to his offense. I also assume Thibs will continue to focus his defense on mid-range shots as he did all this season. But here are a few things Thibs can do to significantly improve the Wolves on both sides of the ball without having to fundamentally change in a way his stubborn psyche won't allow:

1. Add a true two-way high caliber wing to our bench and use Jamaal Crawford less

2. Add a real 3-point marksman to our roster and rotation.

3. Get KAT far more shots, including more 3-pointers, in the offense on a regular basis.

4. Add more Wiggins post-ups, cuts and corner threes to the offense with less one on 5 iso drives for Wiggins, which result too often in turnovers or bad contested 2-point attempts.

5. Give Belly more playing time and encourage him to take more 3-point shots, assuming Thibs re-signs Belly.

6. Allocate more playing time to Tyus Jones, including time on the court with Jeff Teague, who has publicly declared his desire to see Tyus get more playing time.

Adding a good 2-way SG or SF as our first wing off the bench and allocating less playing time to Jamaal will improve our defense. Allocating more playing time to Tyus will also improve our defense.

More shots for KAT and more playing time for Belly would improve our offense as would the addition of a 3-point marksman to our roster and rotation. Running more post-ups, off-ball cuts and corner threes through Wiggins will make him more efficient and improve the team's offense.

That's pretty good stuff Lip

[mjs34]

I like a lot of what is posted here, but I also wonder how we are going to pay for all of this. I think we are sitting around 110 mil without crawfords player option added in. That still means we have to re-sign belly, which is likely to cost around 8 mil. I don't see how we add a full mle player to the roster and still fill in the final 4 or 5 bench spots. We are talking about a cap number of 125-130 mil.

We are going to have to move a big contract somewhere along the way this summer. Whether that is Wiggins, Teague, or Gorgui (unmovable) I don't know. I did hear that Memphis was open to trading their lottery pick. I wonder if a wiggins, Dieng for Parsons and pick deal could be worked out. I really don't want to part with Wig, but his contract makes it easier to consider.

[Lipoli390]

I like a lot of what is posted here, but I also wonder how we are going to pay for all of this. I think we are sitting around 110 mil without crawfords player option added in. That still means we have to re-sign belly, which is likely to cost around 8 mil. I don't see how we add a full mle player to the roster and still fill in the final 4 or 5 bench spots. We are talking about a cap number of 125-130 mil.

We are going to have to move a big contract somewhere along the way this summer. Whether that is Wiggins, Teague, or Gorgui (unmovable) I don't know. I did hear that Memphis was open to trading their lottery pick. I wonder if a wiggins, Dieng for Parsons and pick deal could be worked out. I really don't want to part with Wig, but his contract makes it easier to consider.

You're right SJM. The Wolves are financially strapped. I think Q's right that we'll have to rely on the MLE to fill our two biggest bench needs - (1) a true 2-way wing and (2) a 3-point shooter. But it will take $8.5 million to do that in addition to the $8 million or so it will likely take to re-sign Belly. Hence, as you pointed out, the need to move one of our big contracts. And that means moving Gorgui, Teague or Wiggins. I don't think Teague's contract is moveable at all. Gorgui's probably isn't either. And I don't think we'd get good value in return for Wiggins at this point.

[kekgeek]

I like a lot of what is posted here, but I also wonder how we are going to pay for all of this. I think we are sitting around 110 mil without crawfords player option added in. That still means we have to re-sign belly, which is likely to cost around 8 mil. I don't see how we add a full mle player to the roster and still fill in the final 4 or 5 bench spots. We are talking about a cap number of 125-130 mil.

We are going to have to move a big contract somewhere along the way this summer. Whether that is Wiggins, Teague, or Gorgui (unmovable) I don't know. I did hear that Memphis was open to trading their lottery pick. I wonder if a wiggins, Dieng for Parsons and pick deal could be worked out. I really don't want to part with Wig, but his contract makes it easier to consider.

You're right SJM. The Wolves are financially strapped. I think Q's right that we'll have to rely on the MLE to fill our two biggest bench needs - (1) a true 2-way wing and (2) a 3-point shooter. But it will take $8.5 million to do that in addition to the $8 million or so it will likely take to re-sign Belly. Hence, as you pointed out, the need to move one of our big contracts. And that means moving Gorgui, Teague or Wiggins. I don't think Teague's contract is moveable at all. Gorgui's probably isn't either. And I don't think we'd get good value in return for Wiggins at this point.

I disagree with you that Teague is unmovable, but I think he has more value at the trade deadline. I mean George Hill was traded and in my opinion Teague is better player and there is less of an injury concern with Teague. But are we going to get solid value back. And even though I think Tyus is a good player I don't think he is ready to start

[Lipoli390]

I like a lot of what is posted here, but I also wonder how we are going to pay for all of this. I think we are sitting around 110 mil without crawfords player option added in. That still means we have to re-sign belly, which is likely to cost around 8 mil. I don't see how we add a full mle player to the roster and still fill in the final 4 or 5 bench spots. We are talking about a cap number of 125-130 mil.

We are going to have to move a big contract somewhere along the way this summer. Whether that is Wiggins, Teague, or Gorgui (unmovable) I don't know. I did hear that Memphis was open to trading their lottery pick. I wonder if a wiggins, Dieng for Parsons and pick deal could be worked out. I really don't want to part with Wig, but his contract makes it easier to consider.

You're right SJM. The Wolves are financially strapped. I think Q's right that we'll have to rely on the MLE to fill our two biggest bench needs - (1) a true 2-way wing and (2) a 3-point shooter. But it will take $8.5 million to do that in addition to the $8 million or so it will likely take to re-sign Belly. Hence, as you pointed out, the need to move one of our big contracts. And that means moving Gorgui, Teague or Wiggins. I don't think Teague's contract is moveable at all. Gorgui's probably isn't either. And I don't think we'd get good value in return for Wiggins at this point.

I disagree with you that Teague is unmovable, but I think he has more value at the trade deadline. I mean George Hill was traded and in my opinion Teague is better player and there is less of an injury concern with Teague. But are we going to get solid value back. And even though I think Tyus is a good player I don't think he is ready to start

The Cavs were desperate for a PG when they traded for Hill. But that is an example that provides some hope.

The salary problem is a serious one. With Wiggins salary, the Wolves payroll will be right around $115 million for 10 players with guaranteed contracts through next year. The Wolves can waive Cole Aldrich who has $2 million of his $6 million guaranteed and reduce the payroll by $4 million down to around $111 million for 9 players. Then you have to add the cap hold for our 1st round pick -- probably around $2 million. Meanwhile, the luxury tax threshold next year is expected to be around $123 million. So the Wolves will have around $10 million in headroom before hitting the luxury tax. There is no way this team will or should exceed the luxury tax threshold coming off an 8th place finish with another max player (KAT) on the horizon the following season. Simply re-signing Belly will take us close to the luxury tax. And we'll still have at least 4 roster spots to fill, which even at minimum salaries, will likely put us at or over the luxury tax without spending a dime of this team's MLE.

Given the NBA's salary-match requirements, trading Gorgui or Teague to reduce overall payroll significantly will require the Wolves to find a team that (1) has the cap room to absorb either player's salary without giving us comparable salary in return; and (2) wants either one badly enough to pay them what we're paying them for 2 more years in Teague's case or 3 more years in Gorgui's case. How likely is that? Not very. So honestly, I'm not sure what the Wolves will do. But when you really focus on the situation, it's not pretty.

[Monster]

I like a lot of what is posted here, but I also wonder how we are going to pay for all of this. I think we are sitting around 110 mil without crawfords player option added in. That still means we have to re-sign belly, which is likely to cost around 8 mil. I don't see how we add a full mle player to the roster and still fill in the final 4 or 5 bench spots. We are talking about a cap number of 125-130 mil.

We are going to have to move a big contract somewhere along the way this summer. Whether that is Wiggins, Teague, or Gorgui (unmovable) I don't know. I did hear that Memphis was open to trading their lottery pick. I wonder if a wiggins, Dieng for Parsons and pick deal could be worked out. I really don't want to part with Wig, but his contract makes it easier to consider.

You're right SJM. The Wolves are financially strapped. I think Q's right that we'll have to rely on the MLE to fill our two biggest bench needs - (1) a true 2-way wing and (2) a 3-point shooter. But it will take $8.5 million to do that in addition to the $8 million or so it will likely take to re-sign Belly. Hence, as you pointed out, the need to move one of our big contracts. And that means moving Gorgui, Teague or Wiggins. I don't think Teague's contract is moveable at all. Gorgui's probably isn't either. And I don't think we'd get good value in return for Wiggins at this point.

I disagree with you that Teague is unmovable, but I think he has more value at the trade deadline. I mean George Hill was traded and in my opinion Teague is better player and there is less of an injury concern with Teague. But are we going to get solid value back. And even though I think Tyus is a good player I don't think he is ready to start

The Cavs were desperate for a PG when they traded for Hill. But that is an example that provides some hope.

The salary problem is a serious one. With Wiggins salary, the Wolves payroll will be right around $115 million for 10 players with guaranteed contracts through next year. The Wolves can waive Cole Aldrich who has $2 million of his $6 million guaranteed and reduce the payroll by $4 million down to around $111 million for 9 players. Then you have to add the cap hold for our 1st round pick -- probably around $2 million. Meanwhile, the luxury tax threshold next year is expected to be around $123 million. So the Wolves will have around $10 million in headroom before hitting the luxury tax. There is no way this team will or should exceed the luxury tax threshold coming off an 8th place finish with another max player (KAT) on the horizon the following season. Simply re-signing Belly will take us close to the luxury tax. And we'll still have at least 4 roster spots to fill, which even at minimum salaries, will likely put us at or over the luxury tax without spending a dime of this team's MLE.

Given the NBA's salary-match requirements, trading Gorgui or Teague to reduce overall payroll significantly will require the Wolves to find a team that (1) has the cap room to absorb either player's salary without giving us comparable salary in return; and (2) wants either one badly enough to pay them what we're paying them for 2 more years in Teague's case or 3 more years in Gorgui's case. How likely is that? Not very. So honestly, I'm not sure what the Wolves will do. But when you really focus on the situation, it's not pretty.

I think the Wolves have to be willing to go into the Lux tax this coming season but they need to be very picky about the player/s that force them into that territory. I agree it's hard to see where they do much of any trimming. If they deal Teague they have to replace him with a good vet rotational PG at the very least. I spent some time looking at teams that have some bad salaries and really the best options I could find probably means bring back more salary if we don't sweeten the deal with a 1st round pick which both of us don't want to do. Ultimately we probably need to get something out of Dieng ourselves but I suppose you never know. We have to buy low on someone and get something out of them.