Damning Stats
- Camden [enjin:6601484]
- Posts: 18065
- Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Damning Stats
The problem with Luol Deng is that he's just not a starting small forward anymore. I talked about this a lot over the off-season when I argued that he would be a good addition. He played his best last year when he was matched up against power forwards. You can look at the splits and see the vast difference.
If Los Angeles is looking to dump him in December and they're just wanting to get out from under that contract, it'd be worth looking into if we can use Pekovic's deal and maybe get some kind of pick compensation on top of it.
If Los Angeles is looking to dump him in December and they're just wanting to get out from under that contract, it'd be worth looking into if we can use Pekovic's deal and maybe get some kind of pick compensation on top of it.
- Coolbreeze44
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Re: Damning Stats
Camden wrote:The problem with Luol Deng is that he's just not a starting small forward anymore. I talked about this a lot over the off-season when I argued that he would be a good addition. He played his best last year when he was matched up against power forwards. You can look at the splits and see the vast difference.
If Los Angeles is looking to dump him in December and they're just wanting to get out from under that contract, it'd be worth looking into if we can use Pekovic's deal and maybe get some kind of pick compensation on top of it.
Didn't want him last offseason, certainly don't want him now. It was nice the Lakers made that mistake for us.
- Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
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Re: Damning Stats
khans2k5 wrote:Q12543 wrote:CoolBreeze44 wrote:Q12543 wrote:CoolBreeze44 wrote:I can handle some growing pains in hopes the product on the court eventually matures into a winner. We weren't exactly killing it when Rubio's usage rate was higher in previous years. I would hope the new coach would do some things differently.
I know hard core fans like us want to see tangible evidence that things are better. It's what we do on this message board as we drill down into every granular aspect of our performance in hopes of making some judgements. But it's just too early to blame Thibs or the players for that matter on what has transpired. Things are eventually going to shake out and some things will become obvious. We're just not there yet.
No it's not. We're 5-11. That's not theory - it's real. They are underperforming even the most pessimistic fans' expectations.
One can analyze and judge what has transpired to date, while holding out hope that things can still turn around in the future. I've even speculated that perhaps we take two steps backwards in order to take multiple steps forward.
You misunderstood my point. What I'm saying is you can't accurately judge where the fault lies for the poor start. Is it solely the coaching? Is it solely the players? Is it some combination of the two? Or is it just the natural result of a regime change that is going to take some time to flush out. You argued with me before the season that the team would be as good at the beginning of the season as they would be in the 2nd half. I knew that wasn't going to be the case, so I'm not particularly shocked at the struggles to date. Sure there are reasons for 5-11, just don't think you or anybody else knows exactly what they are yet.
No one can 100% accurately judge where fault lies, but we can certainly point to real data and then form theories around it.
In terms of the slow start, it's funny how this "adjustment phase" doesn't seem to apply to teams like Houston, Memphis, and L.A. They all seem to be doing just fine with a new coach! It feels like an easy excuse for something folks can't otherwise explain easily.
While it's still early, it isn't THAT early anymore. Those 11 losses count. We need to go 36-30 just to reach .500. We better turn things around pretty quickly!
How are the new coaches working out in Sacramento and Washington and Orlando?
Right. Some do better, some do worse with a new coach. So I guess when a team starts off poorly with a new coach, it's all because of a scientifically proven "adjustment" phase, yet when they start out great with a new coach, it's because he's brilliant and pushed all the right buttons? But what happened to the adjustment phase!?
My point is that it's a convenient excuse that is tough to prove either way....
- Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
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- Joined: Thu Jul 11, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Damning Stats
Camden wrote:Q12543 wrote:CoolBreeze44 wrote:Q12543 wrote:CoolBreeze44 wrote:I can handle some growing pains in hopes the product on the court eventually matures into a winner. We weren't exactly killing it when Rubio's usage rate was higher in previous years. I would hope the new coach would do some things differently.
I know hard core fans like us want to see tangible evidence that things are better. It's what we do on this message board as we drill down into every granular aspect of our performance in hopes of making some judgements. But it's just too early to blame Thibs or the players for that matter on what has transpired. Things are eventually going to shake out and some things will become obvious. We're just not there yet.
No it's not. We're 5-11. That's not theory - it's real. They are underperforming even the most pessimistic fans' expectations.
One can analyze and judge what has transpired to date, while holding out hope that things can still turn around in the future. I've even speculated that perhaps we take two steps backwards in order to take multiple steps forward.
You misunderstood my point. What I'm saying is you can't accurately judge where the fault lies for the poor start. Is it solely the coaching? Is it solely the players? Is it some combination of the two? Or is it just the natural result of a regime change that is going to take some time to flush out. You argued with me before the season that the team would be as good at the beginning of the season as they would be in the 2nd half. I knew that wasn't going to be the case, so I'm not particularly shocked at the struggles to date. Sure there are reasons for 5-11, just don't think you or anybody else knows exactly what they are yet.
No one can 100% accurately judge where fault lies, but we can certainly point to real data and then form theories around it.
In terms of the slow start, it's funny how this "adjustment phase" doesn't seem to apply to teams like Houston, Memphis, and L.A. They all seem to be doing just fine with a new coach! It feels like an easy excuse for something folks can't otherwise explain easily.
While it's still early, it isn't THAT early anymore. Those 11 losses count. We need to go 36-30 just to reach .500. We better turn things around pretty quickly!
It doesn't really apply, at least to me, because those three teams you listed all have multiple veteran players making the transition a lot easier. We have one veteran contributor (Ricky Rubio) and he has played poorly to this point. Basically, we're relying on guys with three years of NBA experience or less to acclimate to a nuanced system without many growing pains. That's tough.
Dieng and Rubio are legit vets. The other three, while still young, have all taken a few laps around the league as starters. And most importantly, we are returning the exact same starting 5 that played together very successfully the second half of last season.
I didn't expect this team to get off to a white-hot start, but 5-11? No one predicted that poor of a start and we have been very healthy relative to our competition.
- Coolbreeze44
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Re: Damning Stats
So what is it exactly you attribute the slow start to?
- AbeVigodaLive
- Posts: 10272
- Joined: Thu Jul 11, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Damning Stats
Q12543 wrote:Camden wrote:Q12543 wrote:CoolBreeze44 wrote:Q12543 wrote:CoolBreeze44 wrote:I can handle some growing pains in hopes the product on the court eventually matures into a winner. We weren't exactly killing it when Rubio's usage rate was higher in previous years. I would hope the new coach would do some things differently.
I know hard core fans like us want to see tangible evidence that things are better. It's what we do on this message board as we drill down into every granular aspect of our performance in hopes of making some judgements. But it's just too early to blame Thibs or the players for that matter on what has transpired. Things are eventually going to shake out and some things will become obvious. We're just not there yet.
No it's not. We're 5-11. That's not theory - it's real. They are underperforming even the most pessimistic fans' expectations.
One can analyze and judge what has transpired to date, while holding out hope that things can still turn around in the future. I've even speculated that perhaps we take two steps backwards in order to take multiple steps forward.
You misunderstood my point. What I'm saying is you can't accurately judge where the fault lies for the poor start. Is it solely the coaching? Is it solely the players? Is it some combination of the two? Or is it just the natural result of a regime change that is going to take some time to flush out. You argued with me before the season that the team would be as good at the beginning of the season as they would be in the 2nd half. I knew that wasn't going to be the case, so I'm not particularly shocked at the struggles to date. Sure there are reasons for 5-11, just don't think you or anybody else knows exactly what they are yet.
No one can 100% accurately judge where fault lies, but we can certainly point to real data and then form theories around it.
In terms of the slow start, it's funny how this "adjustment phase" doesn't seem to apply to teams like Houston, Memphis, and L.A. They all seem to be doing just fine with a new coach! It feels like an easy excuse for something folks can't otherwise explain easily.
While it's still early, it isn't THAT early anymore. Those 11 losses count. We need to go 36-30 just to reach .500. We better turn things around pretty quickly!
It doesn't really apply, at least to me, because those three teams you listed all have multiple veteran players making the transition a lot easier. We have one veteran contributor (Ricky Rubio) and he has played poorly to this point. Basically, we're relying on guys with three years of NBA experience or less to acclimate to a nuanced system without many growing pains. That's tough.
Dieng and Rubio are legit vets. The other three, while still young, have all taken a few laps around the league as starters. And most importantly, we are returning the exact same starting 5 that played together very successfully the second half of last season.
I didn't expect this team to get off to a white-hot start, but 5-11? No one predicted that poor of a start and we have been very healthy relative to our competition.
To be fair... Houston, Memphis and LA have veterans who are (1) the best players on the team (2) who have actually won games. A lot of games.
For all the times we make mushy catch-all claims like "need to learn how to win"... we're not just talking about the super young guys. What has Rubio won? Dieng?
[Note: The 5 - 11 start sucks balls. I just don't think there's any one thing we can find to pin the lion's share of blame. There's enough to go around in my book...]
- Q12543 [enjin:6621299]
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- Joined: Thu Jul 11, 2013 12:00 am
Re: Damning Stats
CoolBreeze44 wrote:So what is it exactly you attribute the slow start to?
1. Thibs running the offense through the wings and bigs more than Rubio. They are assisting on fewer baskets and playing more isolation ball. LaVine and Wiggins are not natural play makers and are capable of making only the most basic passes. That doesn't mean they can't improve and clearly Thibs is trying to develop them, but I have seen minimal improvement on this front through their first two seasons.
2. Rubio and Dunn have shot the ball terribly, even by Rubio's historical standards.
3. Team defense still sucks, especially when the offense sputters. This is almost 100% on the starters, as these are the guys that have been annihilated in 3rd quarters. It's hard for me to pinpoint any one or two guys not defending well, so I will simply give equal part blame to all five starters as well as Coach Thibs.
- Wile E Coyote [enjin:17432808]
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Re: Damning Stats
In my opinion the blown leads, bench play, and poor defense are all related.
Ideally, if a starter plays lazy or inattentive defense, Thibs brings in a solid guy off the bench.This leads to several related things:
* Team starts playing a bit better and tougher, avoiding a huge 20-3 run by the other team
* Starter realizes he has to play better D to get minutes
* Team realizes Thibs is serious about playing better D
* Starter gets more rest, meaning he will have more energy when he comes back in later
Right now we have the opposite dynamic
* Thibs keeps starters in because bench is so bad
* Starters don't feel direct consequences of bad D
* Starters tire, leading to worse D
* Bad D and tired players leads to a huge 20-3 run by the other team
* Thibs finally gets desparate and puts in bench players
* Bench players don't play much better D
* Thibs goes back to tired starters after 5 minutes
If the Wolves are going to salvage this season (which Thibs might not be worred about doing), they are going to need to trade some guys for better fits on the bench.
Ideally, if a starter plays lazy or inattentive defense, Thibs brings in a solid guy off the bench.This leads to several related things:
* Team starts playing a bit better and tougher, avoiding a huge 20-3 run by the other team
* Starter realizes he has to play better D to get minutes
* Team realizes Thibs is serious about playing better D
* Starter gets more rest, meaning he will have more energy when he comes back in later
Right now we have the opposite dynamic
* Thibs keeps starters in because bench is so bad
* Starters don't feel direct consequences of bad D
* Starters tire, leading to worse D
* Bad D and tired players leads to a huge 20-3 run by the other team
* Thibs finally gets desparate and puts in bench players
* Bench players don't play much better D
* Thibs goes back to tired starters after 5 minutes
If the Wolves are going to salvage this season (which Thibs might not be worred about doing), they are going to need to trade some guys for better fits on the bench.
Re: Damning Stats
Q12543 wrote:CoolBreeze44 wrote:So what is it exactly you attribute the slow start to?
1. Thibs running the offense through the wings and bigs more than Rubio. They are assisting on fewer baskets and playing more isolation ball. LaVine and Wiggins are not natural play makers and are capable of making only the most basic passes. That doesn't mean they can't improve and clearly Thibs is trying to develop them, but I have seen minimal improvement on this front through their first two seasons.
2. Rubio and Dunn have shot the ball terribly, even by Rubio's historical standards.
3. Team defense still sucks, especially when the offense sputters. This is almost 100% on the starters, as these are the guys that have been annihilated in 3rd quarters. It's hard for me to pinpoint any one or two guys not defending well, so I will simply give equal part blame to all five starters as well as Coach Thibs.
I am curious why it is hard for you to pinpoint and say that Rubio and Lavine have been awful defensively? I get your point that team D means all share responsibility. But these two routinely get burned. My personal take is that Wiggins, Towns and G all can man defend. Rubio used to be able to but I think he is not in shape for whatever reason. Lavine should be able to but lacks any kind of focus. The team concepts are weak for everyone it seems, but when the guards routinely breakdown on their individual coverage it is very challenging for the rest of the team to constantly make up the slack. You should not have to help on guards as much as we do, even thought there are a lot of talented guards in the NBA.
Re: Damning Stats
I say it is that we don't have vets that don't contribute at all.
Here is the guys on their 2nd contract or more.
Rubio: Is shooting a solid 33% from the field.
Rush: Is shooting 22% from the field and 23% from 3 and he is known career 3pt shooter
Cole: Has been damn disappointing, he is so slow on defense he gets a lot of deflections but he gets beat almost every time someone faces up against him. Also he looks lost on offense (I know he is not a good offensive scorer)
Hill: Does not play
Lucas: Does not play
Pek: Hurt
So we are getting absolutely nothing from any of our bench, I mean nothing it is so pathetic. You can blame Thibs/Layden on the guys they brought in but I would say the majority of the guys on this board liked what we did in free agency and didn't want to bring in expensive guys.
People bring up the Lakers and say Luke Walton would have been the better choice but look what he is getting from there vets: Lou Williams is 3rd in the whole NBA in scoring in the 4th, Nick Young is averaging 14 per game while shooting 45% from the field and 41% from 3 while playing good defense. Mozgov has been solid. Deng has been bad can't argue there and even Calderon won them a game a couple games back something none of our bench/vets have done all year.
Serious Question knowing what we know now on how we started would you consider 35 wins this season a utter failure. That would be going 30-26 the rest of the way increasing our win total by 7 by last year what is damn good. I also know that it is under my perdition of 41 wins on the year
Here is the guys on their 2nd contract or more.
Rubio: Is shooting a solid 33% from the field.
Rush: Is shooting 22% from the field and 23% from 3 and he is known career 3pt shooter
Cole: Has been damn disappointing, he is so slow on defense he gets a lot of deflections but he gets beat almost every time someone faces up against him. Also he looks lost on offense (I know he is not a good offensive scorer)
Hill: Does not play
Lucas: Does not play
Pek: Hurt
So we are getting absolutely nothing from any of our bench, I mean nothing it is so pathetic. You can blame Thibs/Layden on the guys they brought in but I would say the majority of the guys on this board liked what we did in free agency and didn't want to bring in expensive guys.
People bring up the Lakers and say Luke Walton would have been the better choice but look what he is getting from there vets: Lou Williams is 3rd in the whole NBA in scoring in the 4th, Nick Young is averaging 14 per game while shooting 45% from the field and 41% from 3 while playing good defense. Mozgov has been solid. Deng has been bad can't argue there and even Calderon won them a game a couple games back something none of our bench/vets have done all year.
Serious Question knowing what we know now on how we started would you consider 35 wins this season a utter failure. That would be going 30-26 the rest of the way increasing our win total by 7 by last year what is damn good. I also know that it is under my perdition of 41 wins on the year