2016 Free Agent Manifesto

[Volans19]

Before the opening of the 2016 free agency period I thought that I should lay down my manifesto on how the Wolves should approach said free agency. I think that these guidelines not only make sense to me but they also make sense, as far as I see it, for the Wolves as well. So here you go.

Cap Space - $26.1 - $31 million. (Depending on how much the cap jumps)

Rubio/ Dunn/ Tyus
LaVine/ ?
Wiggins/ Bazz
Dieng/ Belly/ KG/ Payne
KAT/ Pek

The First 48 Hours

1.) Do not offer any max deals within the opening days. Let the market settle. The Wolves do not have any glaring holes with their roster and the free agent pool is shallow. If other organizations decide that the Allen Crabbe's and the Chandler Parsons of the world are worth max money then wait for the bargains.

2.) Be aware of teams looking to clear space. The Thunder are reportedly interested in luring Al Horford, the Clippers are interested in Kevin Durant, the Hornets are going to have a hell of a time resigning all their players. If any of these teams need trade partners be willing to sacrifice cap space and roster spots for picks and undervalued players (Singler, Morrow, Reddick, Hawes, Lamb, Zeller).

3.) Establish a culture and tone for the franchise. Thibs has already said that he won't be knocking on doors at 12:01 and that he believes that players don't really buy into that stuff. I think this is a good thing, show players what you value and that if they value the same thing (hard work, winning, basketball - not bright lights, dinners, and marketing) that Minnesota is the place you want to be. I think that setting a tone in the first free agency away from the country club is important, not only for the franchise itself, but also to show the league, agents, and media that there has been a culture shift within the Wolves.

The Right Stuff

The Wolves should focus on two things - Defense and 3pt Shooting

-Wings
The Wolves have a solid rotation of Wiggins, Bazz, LaVine, and hopefully the ability to play Dunn at SG. Bazz is a polarizing figure however. Some believe that he will not be in Thibs favor after he exhibits the defensive lapses we have become so accustomed to. So for this exercise we should be looking for the first wing off the bench. The Wolves need a 3&D wing but that is going to hard to come by or is going to be VERY expensive. Looking at the bench we have Dunn who is supposed to be able to defend above average and we have Bazz who can be a streaky scorer. But neither has shown the ability to come in a make three at an above average rate. Therefore I believe that 3pt shooting should have a higher premium. With that in mind here are my targets

- Arron Afflalo - A career 38% 3pt shooter and a decent defender. He has had a journeyman type career with a history of injuries. He is 30 years old and might be looking for a starting job. In my opinion getting him to play here would require an over pay or an offer of four years. I would be hesitant to offer either. I would offer 1 year $14 million That money total should be on the high end of what he would get per year but like I said, he might value length of contract over the short term gratification. If he were to accept this offer he would instantly contribute to getting us into playoff contention and offer us an option to start at SG if Zach struggles or god forbid gets hurt.

- Courtney Lee - A career 38% 3pt shooter and an above average defender. He is 30 years old and he is almost a perfect role player for us. I think he has better opportunities elsewhere both in terms of winning and playing time. Signing Lee might be more of an instant gratification rather than a player for the future. However signing Lee to a 4 yr. $17 million annually should help establish a winning culture and a boost to the bench. This would be one of those signings where you feel both excited and uncomfortable at the same time.

- Eric Gordon - A career 38% 3pt shooter who is 27, has a nasty history of injuries, and is subpar at defense. I would only offer him a one year contract but I feel he will be looking for multiple years at a discount for security. 1 year - $15 million for a chance to prove that he can remain healthy and show he can buy into to scoring off the bench to help save himself from injuries.

- E'Twaun Moore - 37% but shot 45% last year on 1.8 attempts in 22 minutes per game. Not a great defender but if you buy into last season his 3pt % is promising. He should be one of the relative bargains this off season 3yrs $7.5 million annually. If you but into Moore I think you should jump on him early before the teams that strike out on the higher profile targets start getting desperate

Too rich for my blood - Fournier, Crabbe, Harkless, Barnes, Batum, Parsons, Bazemore.

On the cheap targets (below $6 million) - Mayo, Alan Anderson, Hinrich, Thorton, Crawford

Bigs
The bigs on the Wolves roster are an odd assembly. KAT is the franchise, Dieng is a solid player but I have doubts he can be a long term starter, Belly is largely a mystery, KG is he coming back or what, Payne and Pek are both pretty useless at this point. So the three that we have are all largely offensive players (KAT is a true two way player) so I think the focus should be on defense.

Luol Deng, Ian Mahinmi, Marvin Williams, Zaza, Dudley, maaaaybe Jordon Hill

If you can get them cheap then do it - Big Al, Aldrich

I have run out of juice. I tried

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Keep in mind the goofy NBA system...teams can start talking with free agents at 11 PM CDT, but players can't actually sign until July 7. Volans, I assume your 48 hours starts on July 7? I'm on board with not offering any max contracts until we see how things shake out, but I'll actually go a little further...I'm saying no max contracts at all.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Keep in mind the goofy NBA system...teams can start talking with free agents at 11 PM CDT, but players can't actually sign until July 7. Volans, I assume your 48 hours starts on July 7? I'm on board with not offering any max contracts until we see how things shake out, but I'll actually go a little further...I'm saying no max contracts at all.

The thing is... the moratorium is a joke. Teams have already been in contract talks with these guys.

The only team to do something so obviously stupid ... well... nevermind. It hurts my brain. And my heart.

[Mstermisty [enjin:6864008]]

Pretty good summary. I agree that the Wolves need to proceed with caution right now, no need to overpay for someone when we're still figuring out what we have on our own roster under Thibs. I could live with adding a couple solid vets on reasonable contracts to go along with the young core and just see what happens next year.

[Volans19]

Keep in mind the goofy NBA system...teams can start talking with free agents at 11 PM CDT, but players can't actually sign until July 7. Volans, I assume your 48 hours starts on July 7? I'm on board with not offering any max contracts until we see how things shake out, but I'll actually go a little further...I'm saying no max contracts at all.

Like Abe said the moratorium is a joke. Aminu "signed" with the Blazers like 5 minutes after teams were first allowed to contact players last year.

[60WinTim]

You know, an interesting twist are all the trades that can be made without matching salaries because so many teams have so much cap space.

[edit: I just saw you mentioned this in point 2. ]

[Monster]

Totally on board with your manifesto and approach.

I'll add that FA this year has a different feel. It seems some players have embraced not being the top guys and waiting etc. teams are meeting with players earlier etc. maybe it's because Indont really care much about it this year. Let me know when guys have their contracts signed. Whatevs.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I agree that the moratorium is a joke, but I assumed your "do nothing in the first 48 hours" strategy was designed to assess the market. While there may be rumored deals prior to the 7th, there will also be a lot of misinformation floating around out there to drive up deals (like the Noah $30 million rumor).. We won't know for sure what's happening until the 7th.

[Monster]

I agree that the moratorium is a joke, but I assumed your "do nothing in the first 48 hours" strategy was designed to assess the market. While there may be rumored deals prior to the 7th, there will also be a lot of misinformation floating around out there to drive up deals (like the Noah $30 million rumor).. We won't know for sure what's happening until the 7th.

Wasn't that number for the Wizards before Tose went to the Knicks and changed that dynamic? If Noah does love Rose and the Knocks sound cool maybe 18 million or whatever sounds plenty good. Like you said lots of stuff will be flying around. For once the Wolves season doesn't hinge on striking it big in this phase of the NBA cycle. It's nice.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Good work Volans. If you think Crawford could be had for 6, i'd offer two years at 12, but I suspect he'll want more. I'd roll with Alan Anderson and Bass-o-matic, think they'd be quality role players for us.