Rubio by the numbers

[mrhockey89]

Stats per basketball-reference.com

Wolves PG on-court per 100 possessions numbers since Rubio was drafted...

I'm going to start with Johnny Flynn and his rookie year (where I said he stunk, but some people suggest he was solid prior to injury):

2009-10 (15-67)
Flynn: -13.2
Sessions: -6.5

2010-11 (17-65)
Flynn: -9.5
Ridnour: -5.8
Telfair: -6.0

2011-12 (26-40)
Rubio: +2.0 (41 games played)
Ridnour: -2.2
Barea: -4.2

2012-13 (31-51)
Rubio: -2.2 (57 games played)
Ridnour: -2.7
Barea: -1.7

2013-14 (40-42)
Rubio: +6.6 (82 games played)
Barea: -3.4

2014-15 (16-66)
Rubio: -0.6 (22 games played)
Mo Williams: -5.7
Lavine: -14.8
Brown: -8.6

2015-16 (29-53)
Rubio: +0.1 (76 games played)
Jones: -9.8
A. Miller: -.9 (contrast this to when he joined the Spurs and was +13.0 in the same year)
Lavine: -6.2 (this includes his SG on-court numbers which skews it positive)

So of the 5 seasons Rubio's been in a Timberwolves uniform, they've outscored the opponents in 3 of them...which means if the bench is holding up their end of the bargain, or even played even basketball, you end up with a +.500 record. As you can see, the two seasons with Flynn were a disaster and it reflected on the team's record. We also got a glimpse just a year ago (2014-15) of what life without Ricky (22 games played, 16 win season, 7-15 with Rubio, 9-51 without). We've seen Ricky earn bloated contracts for guys like Kevin Love, Nikola Pekovic, and Derrick Williams (okay, he didn't earn a bloated contract for Williams, but he made him look like a player who could at least show flashes).

Of the 21 PG performances on this team (not even including Alexei Shved's horrible turn at PG), the team has 3 total PG performances which had net positive on-floor numbers. Every one of those 3 was marked by Rubio. He's been our one consistently solid->good performer throughout the years since he's been drafted. And two of the past 3 seasons he's been virtually injury-free.

He's regularly good to elite in the following categories: assists, steals, rebounds, A/T ratio, and he's a very good free throw shooter

But because he scores only 10.1 ppg on 8.6 shots per game and can't score, we should dump him the minute we get a rookie with promise. Amazing.

Some people suggest it's difficult to judge his worth because he's not like most score-first minded point guards, but for me it's pretty simple, all you have to do is compare him to what others produced with the same team Ricky had to measure.

The one season Ricky played 82 games (team record 40-42), the Wolves had a 30+ point lead in like 14 of those games, which was a NBA record I believe (or right on the record). Most of those leads were given back the moment the backups hit the floor.

....But he can't shoot

[Mr. Brightside [enjin:16464947]]

I'm in the keep Rubio on this team camp. But I'm also in the Dunn may supplant Rubio as the starting PG by the 2017 season because I think he'll be that good camp.

[mrhockey89]

The argument I hear against keeping Rubio is that he may be a top 15 PG (I personally think he's more around 7-10), but that Dunn might become better. I like Dunn's upside quite a bit, and I think he's got a chance to become a blue chipper. With that said, even if he does end up being Derrick Rose with better knees...why wouldn't you want an opportunity to have TWO top 15 starting caliber NBA PGs running the show as long as there isn't dissension in the locker room? If one gets injured, you're still in great shape at the position. If both stay healthy, you likely are making a playoff run at the least.

[Lipoli390]

Great post, Hockey! I agree with Brightside that Dunn MAY supplant Ricky as starting PG in the 2017/18 season. But I wouldn't bet on it or against it. Watching film of Dunn and looking at his college numbers, nothing blows me away. I don't see, for example, anything close to Westbrook's explosiveness or Kyrie's elusiveness. Yet, there's enough there to believe he could be very good or at least solid once he adjusts to the NBA game. But there's a long road from being a college senior with a very poor assist/turnover ratio to supplanting Ricky as the Wolves starting PG.

[mrhockey89]

Great post, Hockey! I agree with Brightside that Dunn MAY supplant Ricky as starting PG in the 2017/18 season. But I wouldn't bet on it or against it. Watching film of Dunn and looking at his college numbers, nothing blows me away. I don't see, for example, anything close to Westbrook's explosiveness or Kyrie's elusiveness. Yet, there's enough there to believe he could be very good or at least solid once he adjusts to the NBA game. But there's a long road from being a college senior with a very poor assist/turnover ratio to supplanting Ricky as the Wolves starting PG.

I guess my feeling is that the Wolves shouldn't make that decision until they're forced to. If Dunn pans out immediately, then great...worst case scenario you have the positional advantage in pretty much every game all season based on the incredible depth.

[Lipoli390]

I agree, Hockey. And I'm convinced that Thibs is thinking along the same lines. There's no way he's going to turn over the starting PG reins to a rookie without first finding out whether he's better than our current top 15 PG.

[mrhockey89]

I agree, Hockey. And I'm convinced that Thibs is thinking along the same lines. There's no way he's going to turn over the starting PG reins to a rookie without first finding out whether he's better than our current top 15 PG.

I hope you're right Lip. I'm not quite as convinced as you, however. If we do trade Rubio, I hope it's in a package that brings us a player like Butler though....none of this sell low "Rubio for Noel" stuff.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

You just compared Ricky to all backup caliber PG's to prove how good he is. This is what I'm sick of. Compare him to his peers and then I'll get on board if it still looks good, but looking good compared to all backup caliber players means nothing to me in terms of making him look good. He's better than backups. Great. Wonderful. Grand. If he wasn't better than them there wouldn't even be an argument if getting Dunn was the right move. What's his performance look like compared to his peers? That's what matters.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

You just compared Ricky to all backup caliber PG's to prove how good he is. This is what I'm sick of. Compare him to his peers and then I'll get on board if it still looks good, but looking good compared to all backup caliber players means nothing to me in terms of making him look good. He's better than backups. Great. Wonderful. Grand. If he wasn't better than them there wouldn't even be an argument if getting Dunn was the right move. What's his performance look like compared to his peers? That's what matters.

WS/48:*
Rubio - .119
Teague - .125
Conley - .144
Parker -.142
Dragic - .096

*note - Win Shares has a team defense factor, thus teams with great defenses provide a boost to its individual player win shares. The opposite is the case with players with poor team defenses.

PER
Rubio - 17.6
Teague - 17.9
Conley - 19.4
Parker - 16.2
Dragic - 15.5

VORP
Rubio - 2.3
Teague - 1.3
Conley - 1.7
Parker - 1.0
Dragic - 1.6

Seems to me that Rubio holds his own against a group of starting playoff PGs.

[Lipoli390]

Q -- I'm sick of you and others like Hockey and Monster using facts to evaluate Ricky's actual performance. :)