Rubio and Dunn

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I'm going to qualify this post first in light of some earlier posts about Rubio fans being blinded to a talent like Dunn. I'm a Rubio fan and have been since before he was drafted. I was also one person that was always skeptical of him every being a scorer. I was expecting more than who he is now but I didn't think he was going to be more than a 16ppg or so and that was when he was drafted. Over the years I've been fairly realistic in where I think he can be in the league. I've been saying for at least 2 year this team should be adding a young possible talent to take over for him in case he can't stay healthy or just isn't good enough. So the idea I don't like Dunn because I just LOVE Rubio isn't fair for me. I want to keep both guys and see where we go from there.

I just watched the highly suggested GT game an here are my thoughts.

What I liked

Dunn's long passes getting the ball up the floor quickly are terrific and on point. That sounds great with all the guys that can get up the floor in transition. Bazz would love to play with this guy. You have to think Thibs see's what Dunn can do and be thinking of playing with quick pace.

Rebounding. The guy attacks the glass and that's going to help the team. Imagine him getting the rebound and getting it up to the streaking Bazz for easy dunks. Good times.

Defense. It was terrific. There were 3-4 shots that a guy he was defending made that he almost blocked. This is where Dunn's ability is worth getting very very excited about. There is every reason to think he can be an on ball, team and disrupting force in one player as a guard. That's worth a lottery pick by itself in many drafts. I'm becoming a believer of Dunn on this end especially combined with his rebounding.

Calm demeanor. Doesn't get rattled seems to know what it supposed to happen at any given time when possessions start and committed to what is supposed to happen. Basically he is a coaches dream.

Again I don't get the super love for his offensive game...here are my thoughts why and this game confirms most of what I thought before and I was expecting something different based on the comments on how great he was on this game.

I don't see a PG watching him. I see a guy that can play the position is unselfish and can pass but I don't see that innate skill for the position that sets the really good creative PGs from the guys that are more like solid starters. His passes often are not on point. Players have to adjust to them and are not in stride. Maybe part of the issue is what he is asked to do in his offense but I don't see him having some sort of plan when he has the ball enacting some sort of vision of how to get another guy a play. It's hard to describe what I mean probably but I just don't see him as a natural PG. I absolutely think he can play the position especially as a backup but I think he has some work to do there before being a starter as a PG. I think he could be a starter though.

His handle just isn't tight enough for me as a supposed elite PG. He gets himself into problems loses the ball drives into too much traffic.

For an big athletic freak in college he isn't as impressive at the rim as I would expect. He got blocked a couple times in this game.

Before you roast me...

Dunn has special physical gifts which makes him intriguing. Because of those it allows him to do things other players can't do. He doesn't have to be the best PG ever to be worthwhile there if he became a starter. He will be able to use his size and quickness to score and create that many other players won't be able to do. Watching 2 games in the last few hours I feel better about his shot than I did before. Defensively the guy could be a real terror. I see the guy as a nasty combo guard who can absolutely play SG because of his ability to play defense at both spots. His fit with Lavine would be exciting as both guys could attack the basket handle the ball and I think Dunn may be a solid enough shooter to keep guys honest. His fit with Rubio...have fun scoring against a team with those guys guarding you on the perimeter. Rubio could find Dunn cutting to the basket and he could also set Dunn up for open jumpers both 3 point shots and midrange jumpers. Rubio has been a solid catch and shoot guy most of his pro career and had success out of the corner last year so him playing off Dunn isn't completely out of the question.

I've been saying for years a real weakness of the wolves was Combo guards. The Wolves didn't have dynamic guys that could come off the bench or even start at SG. Any time the Womves have gotten guys that were solid (Ridnour) or Dynamic (JJ) they ended up having to start or play a more significant role than they should have because of injury and/or basically nearly complete lack of legit starting SG. Now the Wolves have a likely legit SG in Lavine. Dunn could be that dynamic combo guard off the bench (who could grow into a starter) this team has needed for years. PLUS he could be one of the best defenders on the entire team playing that role. That's a nice player even at #5. I wanted more than that at #5 but after watching Dunn in a couple games I'm buying his likely impact defensively and much more happy with the pick kinda falling into where Tim has been banging the drum for him for weeks or months. It's honestly possible he becomes a starting level player at either PG OR SG. Let's keep all these young guys. Let's watch this team become a wrecking ball to the league like the Warriors have been (but a different style). If the Wolves could get Deng and a couple value FAs watch out. Dunn could be part of this team making some real noise this season.

I guess I don't see how a guy can be 2nd in the entire nation in assists per game 2 years ago and 12th this year and be questioned as a PG. He finished with more assists per game than all the PG's taken last year. His down year this year was still better or equal to guys like Elfrid Peyton, Tyler Ennis, Isaiah Thomas, John Wall and many others who didn't even make top 30 in the nation. He's not Ricky Rubio, but he clearly has a decent level of playmaking because I just don't see how you can fluke your way that high up in the national standings for APG's.

[Monster]

There is a lot more to being a PG that how many assists you have. I'm not dismissing the stat but it's also not really an end all in college either. I'm not sure how I am supposed to be impressed with him being a top assist guy when I look at the list of guys in the top 20 the last 2 years in college. His Junior year only one other player in the top 20 had a worse AST/TO ratio. This year he was 3rd worst. How many guys that were top 20 assist guys from the last 2 years were selected in the first round of the NBA draft? I count 3 Payne Dunn and Valentine with Ulis likely dropping out because of injury concerns. Maybe another young guy will be drafted another year from that group but it's not an impressive list. Going back through the assist leaders from the past few years of college basketball it's tough to come to any significant conclusion that being a top 10 college assist guy means too much. Thanks for the inspiration of doing that research on that. I'll probably put more effort into the eye test on PGs now than I would have before. :)

Keep in mind I never said Dunn sucks and can't play the position I just don't see him as a natural make his team better at a high level PG as a passer.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

There is a lot more to being a PG that how many assists you have. I'm not dismissing the stat but it's also not really an end all in college either. I'm not sure how I am supposed to be impressed with him being a top assist guy when I look at the list of guys in the top 20 the last 2 years in college. His Junior year only one other player in the top 20 had a worse AST/TO ratio. This year he was 3rd worst. How many guys that were top 20 assist guys from the last 2 years were selected in the first round of the NBA draft? I count 3 Payne Dunn and Valentine with Ulis likely dropping out because of injury concerns. Maybe another young guy will be drafted another year from that group but it's not an impressive list. Going back through the assist leaders from the past few years of college basketball it's tough to come to any significant conclusion that being a top 10 college assist guy means too much. Thanks for the inspiration of doing that research on that. I'll probably put more effort into the eye test on PGs now than I would have before. :)

Keep in mind I never said Dunn sucks and can't play the position I just don't see him as a natural make his team better at a high level PG as a passer.

Every player has strengths and weaknesses. Dunn's strengths are his athletic defense and dribble penetration, and those are also two things we need that make a team better. And thankfully, they complement Rubio and Tyus, so we'll be able to show different strengths at the PG position (and at SG since Dunn can play there some).

Dunn does turn the ball over too much, and he's not as good or careful a passer as Rubio and Tyus. Monster is definitely right about that. He'll need to improve that. But it's not like he's a shooting guard forced to play PG because of his size. Many of his turnovers seem to come off the dribble, which he does need to tighten up a bit. He's got the athleticism to get to the rim, but he needs to be disciplined with his handle to avoid losing control on the way. But the dude can pass, and he has passing instincts. Particularly on the break like monster pointed out. He is a little loose with his passes. Floating some a little too slowly, or just missing the mark because he needs to focus more. Unconscious distribution like Rubio, Kidd, or Rondo is not his thing, but I think he's definitely passable as a PG. :)

Dunn's like the passing equivalent of an inefficient scorer. He's shown he can pass just like some guys have shown they can really score (LaVine comes to mind), but he needs to be smarter and more efficient about it (just like LaVine has improved his shooting percentages). I think he can become a more efficient and careful passer, and that in the meantime, his strengths will allow him to contribute in other ways.

If we had drafted Hield (who I slightly preferred to Dunn 2 days out of 3), something tells me we'd be wringing our hands about his defense right now. But Hield can hang his hat on his 3 point shooting like Dunn can hang his on his defense. Strengths and weaknesses. The key is to improve on weaknesses, and monster has raised a key one for Dunn here. Hopefully he'll improve on it so we can enjoy his strengths on the court more as well (watching him play defense on some of these full games is a blast).

EDIT: Watching some of these highlights makes me feel better about Dunn's ability to play the 2. That's one benefit to Dunn over Hield. He can play 2 positions, whereas Buddy is really only a 2. The benefit is that we can rely on his passing less until he gets better at it, and when he is at the 1, he gives us good length and athleticism for the position.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Good discussion here about our PG situation. I think we're all learning more about Dunn...some good, some not so good. I watched portions of the Georgetown game and won't add my comments here because Monster did a great job of summarizing his performance.

My opinion of Kris Dunn the man has gotten more favorable since draft night, but my opinion of Kris Dunn the PG has gone in the other direction. With the potential fire power we have in our young Big 3, we need a Rubio-like distributor who can get them the ball without turning it over, and Dunn isn't that guy yet.

Some here have commented on his good assist totals as an indicator that he is a good distributor, but I think when you dig into the numbers more, some questions come up. During November and December pre-season games (against a soft schedule), he put up 7.4 assists per game against only 2.8 turnovers. But his numbers against conference competition in January and February were not very good...4.7 assists per game and 4.3 turnovers per game. He improved in March, but then had as many turnovers as assists in his two NCAA tournament games. NBA defenses will be even better than Big East defenses, so I do have concerns.

My sense is that there are still potential deals out there for Dunn, and I would be more interested now than I was on draft night. I would pull the trigger on any one of these deals:

1) Dunn for Russell and a draft pick
2) Dunn and LaVine for Butler and Valentine
3) Dunn for Noel, Covington and Luwawu

[Papalrep]

LST - agree. Great young man, great story, beast athlete. But a great, or even good NBA point guard? Jury's out.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

LST - agree. Great young man, great story, beast athlete. But a great, or even good NBA point guard? Jury's out.

If he can improve his outside shooting just a little, his defense will make him into a pretty good PG. Then, if he can greatly improve his assist to turnover ratio, he can become a great PG. So the potential is there, although there are some big "ifs". That's why I prefer to move him this summer if any of those deals are there.

[Monster]

LST I wonder if some of his assist totals were affected by the other PG being given more opportunities to initiate offense as time went on. He had some really nice moments in that GT game.

Another thing I would be curious about with Dunn is his percentages as a catch and shoot guy both on 2 point shots and 3 pointers. It seems from what I read on DX that he shot better on catch and shoot 3's but who know what the sample size numbers are etc. I wonder that because I think there is a chance Dunn can work more off the ball than would have been expected at first.

[mrhockey89]

I watched that video too and it makes me wonder if he couldn't improve his shot a bit (reasonable expectation) and become a Dwayne Wade-like 2 guard. Watching it definitely makes you think he can take his guy off the dribble at will, plays smart and solid defense, and isn't afraid to dribble in traffic (good or bad), but it also gives you the feeling that he's not as much as a playmaker for his teammates as Rubio is...but then that's reasonable, because few PGs are.

[Monster]

I watched that video too and it makes me wonder if he couldn't improve his shot a bit (reasonable expectation) and become a Dwayne Wade-like 2 guard. Watching it definitely makes you think he can take his guy off the dribble at will, plays smart and solid defense, and isn't afraid to dribble in traffic (good or bad), but it also gives you the feeling that he's not as much as a playmaker for his teammates as Rubio is...but then that's reasonable, because few PGs are.

I've been thinking the same thing but I am trying to come up with a more comparable guy than a no brainier HOF SG. I can't so it's decided Dunn will become D Wade. Lol

[Mr. Brightside [enjin:16464947]]

Good discussion here about our PG situation. I think we're all learning more about Dunn...some good, some not so good. I watched portions of the Georgetown game and won't add my comments here because Monster did a great job of summarizing his performance.

My opinion of Kris Dunn the man has gotten more favorable since draft night, but my opinion of Kris Dunn the PG has gone in the other direction. With the potential fire power we have in our young Big 3, we need a Rubio-like distributor who can get them the ball without turning it over, and Dunn isn't that guy yet.

Some here have commented on his good assist totals as an indicator that he is a good distributor, but I think when you dig into the numbers more, some questions come up. During November and December pre-season games (against a soft schedule), he put up 7.4 assists per game against only 2.8 turnovers. But his numbers against conference competition in January and February were not very good...4.7 assists per game and 4.3 turnovers per game. He improved in March, but then had as many turnovers as assists in his two NCAA tournament games. NBA defenses will be even better than Big East defenses, so I do have concerns.

My sense is that there are still potential deals out there for Dunn, and I would be more interested now than I was on draft night. I would pull the trigger on any one of these deals:

1) Dunn for Russell and a draft pick
2) Dunn and LaVine for Butler and Valentine
3) Dunn for Noel, Covington and Luwawu

Are you of the opinion that Rubio should continue to be our stating point guard for the foreseeable future and will be a key in a long, deep playoff run? I love Ricky and I want him on this team. However, Dunn's athleticism and finishing ability along with his shut down defense will take this team to another level.

Rubio is like Kevin Love in a lot of ways. He's a flawed player that needs very specific types of players around him due to his flaws. Love needs someone to create shots for him. He also needs an athletic big next to him that can rim protect and defend along with other perimeter defenders. Ricky needs shooters/scorers all around him due to his limitations in those departments. That's what makes a player like Towns so great. It doesn't matter who is beside him. He fits well with anyone because he's very good to great at all aspects.

Dunn can be good to very good in every aspect. He'll become a good (not elite) shooter. He'll defend like a pit bull. He'll get to the rack and finish consistently. Will he pass like Ricky? Probably not. Will he see the floor like Ricky? Probably not. Will he do those things along with everything else good enough to be a very good point guard and an excellent compliment to Towns, Wiggins, and LaVine? Absolutely.

We, as fans, have loved (hell, adored!) Ricky since he got here in 2011. He's provided fun and excitement in a rather dull time in Timberwolves basketball. His enthusiasm and charm is infectious. Because of this, we are somewhat blind to his flaws. His lack of being a scoring/shooting threat will continue to hold this team back, specifically in the playoffs.

Every year we say "If Ricky can just learn to shoot. If Ricky can just finish at the rim a little better, we'll be that much better." However, we have seen very little improvement in that area the last 5 seasons, some of which were injury riddled. Kris Dunn is here to eventually become the leader of this team and the starting point guard. It's time to start to embrace him and start to distance ourselves from Ricky Rubio, no matter how hard that may be.