Souhan: Rubio hasn't proven worthy of leading Wolves' resurgence

[Lipoli390]

Kahns -- Teams are going to start cutting off his passing lanes? What have these teams been waiting for? Maybe coaching staffs around the League should start reading this message board so they can find out what a terrible shooter Ricky is and make the appropriate adjustments defensively. Last I looked, Ricky continued last season to be among the League's leaders in assists and in assist/turnover ratio. So maybe teams will start cutting off those passing lanes next season -- Ricky's 6th.

I'd love it if Ricky were a better shooter. But he's not a good shooter and don't expect he'll ever be. Just seems to be an inherent flaw in his game. But it hasn't stopped him from being very good to elite for his position in multiple other categories -- e.g., assists, steals, rebounding. And it hasn't stopped him from being a major net team positive on the court. If Dunn ultimately proves to be better than Ricky, then Dunn should at that time become our starting PG after which Ricky should be traded or serve as Dunn's backup. It's that simple. Otherwise, the seemingly angry vitriol regarding Ricky and suggestions of some sort of accountability gap strikes me as sort of strange and misplaced.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Kahns -- Teams are going to start cutting off his passing lanes? What have these teams been waiting for? Maybe coaching staffs around the League should start reading this message board so they can find out what a terrible shooter Ricky is and make the appropriate adjustments defensively. Last I looked, Ricky continued last season to be among the League's leaders in assists and in assist/turnover ratio. So maybe teams will start cutting off those passing lanes next season -- Ricky's 6th.

I'd love it if Ricky were a better shooter. But he's not a good shooter and don't expect he'll ever be. Just seems to be an inherent flaw in his game. But it hasn't stopped him from being very good to elite for his position in multiple other categories -- e.g., assists, steals, rebounding. And it hasn't stopped him from being a major net team positive on the court. If Dunn ultimately proves to be better than Ricky, then Dunn should at that time become our starting PG after which Ricky should be traded or serve as Dunn's backup. It's that simple. Otherwise, the seemingly angry vitriol regarding Ricky and suggestions of some sort of accountability gap strikes me as sort of strange and misplaced.

There's a recurring narrative on this board that defenses can slack off Rubio and cut off his passing lanes, and that that flaw will be highlighted in the playoffs. But to Lip's point, why hasn't this happened yet? The reason is that, like most NBA guards, Ricky will make most of his shots if he is left unguarded, and defenses can't take that risk. Ricky is a poor jump shooter, and seems to miss 80% of his threes when he is closely guarded, but watch him shooting pre-game or at half time without a hand in his face...he makes almost every one of his threes when he is practicing. Even though I don't think Ricky will ever rank in the top half of PGs in shooting percentage, I will let Ricky take a wide-open three any time...there's a better than 50% chance he'll make it.

[AbeVigodaLive]

One hilarious thing I remembered about Souhan with this take on his podcast is he rips Rubio for not being the guy to lead this young team at the age of 26 and then his next take (which I thought was good and I agree with) is how the Twins and fans shouldn't give up on Buxton because it may take him years to put it all together like it did Torii Hunter. Lol different situations but still a little amusing.

Context.

Rubio has played 5 seasons. How many players in NBA history have (basically) played at one level for 5 seasons... then kicked it up significantly? Has it ever happened?

[AbeVigodaLive]

Kahns -- Teams are going to start cutting off his passing lanes? What have these teams been waiting for? Maybe coaching staffs around the League should start reading this message board so they can find out what a terrible shooter Ricky is and make the appropriate adjustments defensively. Last I looked, Ricky continued last season to be among the League's leaders in assists and in assist/turnover ratio. So maybe teams will start cutting off those passing lanes next season -- Ricky's 6th.

I'd love it if Ricky were a better shooter. But he's not a good shooter and don't expect he'll ever be. Just seems to be an inherent flaw in his game. But it hasn't stopped him from being very good to elite for his position in multiple other categories -- e.g., assists, steals, rebounding. And it hasn't stopped him from being a major net team positive on the court. If Dunn ultimately proves to be better than Ricky, then Dunn should at that time become our starting PG after which Ricky should be traded or serve as Dunn's backup. It's that simple. Otherwise, the seemingly angry vitriol regarding Ricky and suggestions of some sort of accountability gap strikes me as sort of strange and misplaced.

There's a recurring narrative on this board that defenses can slack off Rubio and cut off his passing lanes, and that that flaw will be highlighted in the playoffs. But to Lip's point, why hasn't this happened yet? The reason is that, like most NBA guards, Ricky will make most of his shots if he is left unguarded, and defenses can't take that risk. Ricky is a poor jump shooter, and seems to miss 80% of his threes when he is closely guarded, but watch him shooting pre-game or at half time without a hand in his face...he makes almost every one of his threes when he is practicing. Even though I don't think Ricky will ever rank in the top half of PGs in shooting percentage, I will let Ricky take a wide-open three any time...there's a better than 50% chance he'll make it.

Maybe.

Then again, it hasn't happened yet because teams haven't had to change basic defenses principles to beat the Timberwolves. The team is 45 - 119 over the past two seasons.

Rubio may be able to hit those shots when teams start daring him to shoot. Maybe not. But we do know that in a playoff situation, or even when you get more attention from opposing teams looking for specific ways to beat you, Rubio will be left wide open. Historically, we've seen it happen.

That was the approach the Lakers took with Rondo in two Finals trips and it worked to varying degrees. Tony Allen was a DPOY candidate and a key part of Memphis... but was rendered a liability vs. GSW in the playoffs when the Warriors put Bogut on him to basically force him to shoot wide open jumpers. Even Jeff Teague was dared to shoot in the playoffs vs. the Heat in the 2015 ECF.

In any event... even though I know it will happen when the Wolves make the playoffs... I don't care. Yet. Considering how long it's been since this team has even come remotely close to a playoff berth... I'm just happy if they can make it there. Get that experience. Learn from it. And we'll find out if Rubio is the right guy long-term to push the Wolves deeper or not.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

Abe is spot on. We haven't seen it yet because teams haven't needed to do it to beat us. Hack a Shaq only happens when teams need it to get back in games or slow down the pace of a game. Why don't they just do it all year long every game? Because it's a strategy that you only employ when you need to. Some of you are in for a rude awakening when this team starts playing some meaningful games when it comes to Ricky, but you aren't gonna believe it until you see it so we'll just wait and let it play out.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Khans and abe...your narrative that opponents' defensive approach to Ricky Rubio is going to change dramatically when we become a better team just doesn't jive with what I observed last season. Yes, we only won 29 games last year, but we were in many, many close games where I observed opponents varying their defensive strategy on Ricky in an attempt to win the game. And my observation is that Ricky was savvy enough to generally make the right choice...attacking and distributing if the defense is playing him tight, or taking the wide-open three if his defender sags off on him. Late season wins in Memphis and Golden State were great examples of different defenses Ricky faced in games those two teams really wanted to win. Most of the time they played him tight, and he was able put up 11 assists in each game. But there were also moments when his defender clearly dared him to shoot, and Ricky took advantage of it. I don't expect his decision making will be any worse when he finally gets to play in the playoffs.

I'm not suggesting that Ricky is the perfect PG, because I think he is far from it. I cringe sometimes when he takes an ill-advised, contested mid-range jumper that I think has little chance of going in. But I do think he is almost perfect for this team. Flip assembled a team with 3 potential superstars who each need a lot of touches to realize their potential. A pass-first PG who seems to enjoy an assist more than a basket is just what this team needs, especially when he adds so much on the defensive side of the ball.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Khans and abe...your narrative that opponents' defensive approach to Ricky Rubio is going to change dramatically when we become a better team just doesn't jive with what I observed last season. Yes, we only won 29 games last year, but we were in many, many close games where I observed opponents varying their defensive strategy on Ricky in an attempt to win the game. And my observation is that Ricky was savvy enough to generally make the right choice...attacking and distributing if the defense is playing him tight, or taking the wide-open three if his defender sags off on him. Late season wins in Memphis and Golden State were great examples of different defenses Ricky faced in games those two teams really wanted to win. Most of the time they played him tight, and he was able put up 11 assists in each game. But there were also moments when his defender clearly dared him to shoot, and Ricky took advantage of it. I don't expect his decision making will be any worse when he finally gets to play in the playoffs.

I'm not suggesting that Ricky is the perfect PG, because I think he is far from it. I cringe sometimes when he takes an ill-advised, contested mid-range jumper that I think has little chance of going in. But I do think he is almost perfect for this team. Flip assembled a team with 3 potential superstars who each need a lot of touches to realize their potential. A pass-first PG who seems to enjoy an assist more than a basket is just what this team needs, especially when he adds so much on the defensive side of the ball.

Maybe.

I'm just telling you that's how teams will play Rubio. I acknowledge that he might hit those shots. Considering it's worked for other teams, however, there's a decent enough chance that it will be an effective ploy vs. the Wolves. There's a lot of evidence against Rubio being able to make those shots consistently over 7 games. A game or two we remember now may not be enough of a sample size. Could other people point out any games in the past 119+ losses where Rubio didn't hit the shots? Maybe more importantly, it's not just about making those shots... it's about taking them. As with Teague, he felt uncomfortable taking the shot every time and he's a much more willing shooter than Rubio. (see note about nash)

It's not like this team is battling for a title... just get in to the playoffs... see what happens... and make any necessary changes from there. If Rubio can help the Wolves get there... by all means, give him all the time he can handle right now. There might be a time to worry about Rubio's playoff shooting woes. Now is not that time.


[Note: Even Steve Nash faced that type of defense once in the playoffs. In 2005, his former team, Dallas, sagged off him as the series went on because they thought he didn't have the mentality of a scorer and wouldn't take that shot over and over and over again. The strategy largely failed as Nash averaged 40 ppg over the final 3 games of that series. Granted... he shot 47 - 78 (60.2%) over that stretch.]

[thedoper]

Kahns -- Teams are going to start cutting off his passing lanes? What have these teams been waiting for? Maybe coaching staffs around the League should start reading this message board so they can find out what a terrible shooter Ricky is and make the appropriate adjustments defensively. Last I looked, Ricky continued last season to be among the League's leaders in assists and in assist/turnover ratio. So maybe teams will start cutting off those passing lanes next season -- Ricky's 6th.

I'd love it if Ricky were a better shooter. But he's not a good shooter and don't expect he'll ever be. Just seems to be an inherent flaw in his game. But it hasn't stopped him from being very good to elite for his position in multiple other categories -- e.g., assists, steals, rebounding. And it hasn't stopped him from being a major net team positive on the court. If Dunn ultimately proves to be better than Ricky, then Dunn should at that time become our starting PG after which Ricky should be traded or serve as Dunn's backup. It's that simple. Otherwise, the seemingly angry vitriol regarding Ricky and suggestions of some sort of accountability gap strikes me as sort of strange and misplaced.

There's a recurring narrative on this board that defenses can slack off Rubio and cut off his passing lanes, and that that flaw will be highlighted in the playoffs. But to Lip's point, why hasn't this happened yet? The reason is that, like most NBA guards, Ricky will make most of his shots if he is left unguarded, and defenses can't take that risk. Ricky is a poor jump shooter, and seems to miss 80% of his threes when he is closely guarded, but watch him shooting pre-game or at half time without a hand in his face...he makes almost every one of his threes when he is practicing. Even though I don't think Ricky will ever rank in the top half of PGs in shooting percentage, I will let Ricky take a wide-open three any time...there's a better than 50% chance he'll make it.

Who says our offense and opposing team's defense hasn't changed because of Rubio? We averaged the 2nd fewest FG attempts per game last season, which greatly affects our pace of play and our ability to score. I think it may be logical to infer that this is because our primary ball handler doesn't shoot and therefore we need to cycle through other options, taking us longer to get into sets. It is different than a guy who doesn't handle the ball not scoring and undoubtedly changes the way we play. It has happened, anyone knows what a gift it is to be able to ignore someone on the court especially if they're not a rebounding threat.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Kahns -- Teams are going to start cutting off his passing lanes? What have these teams been waiting for? Maybe coaching staffs around the League should start reading this message board so they can find out what a terrible shooter Ricky is and make the appropriate adjustments defensively. Last I looked, Ricky continued last season to be among the League's leaders in assists and in assist/turnover ratio. So maybe teams will start cutting off those passing lanes next season -- Ricky's 6th.

I'd love it if Ricky were a better shooter. But he's not a good shooter and don't expect he'll ever be. Just seems to be an inherent flaw in his game. But it hasn't stopped him from being very good to elite for his position in multiple other categories -- e.g., assists, steals, rebounding. And it hasn't stopped him from being a major net team positive on the court. If Dunn ultimately proves to be better than Ricky, then Dunn should at that time become our starting PG after which Ricky should be traded or serve as Dunn's backup. It's that simple. Otherwise, the seemingly angry vitriol regarding Ricky and suggestions of some sort of accountability gap strikes me as sort of strange and misplaced.

There's a recurring narrative on this board that defenses can slack off Rubio and cut off his passing lanes, and that that flaw will be highlighted in the playoffs. But to Lip's point, why hasn't this happened yet? The reason is that, like most NBA guards, Ricky will make most of his shots if he is left unguarded, and defenses can't take that risk. Ricky is a poor jump shooter, and seems to miss 80% of his threes when he is closely guarded, but watch him shooting pre-game or at half time without a hand in his face...he makes almost every one of his threes when he is practicing. Even though I don't think Ricky will ever rank in the top half of PGs in shooting percentage, I will let Ricky take a wide-open three any time...there's a better than 50% chance he'll make it.

Who says our offense and opposing team's defense hasn't changed because of Rubio? We averaged the 2nd fewest FG attempts per game last season, which greatly affects our pace of play and our ability to score. I think it may be logical to infer that this is because our primary ball handler doesn't shoot and therefore we need to cycle through other options, taking us longer to get into sets. It is different than a guy who doesn't handle the ball not scoring and undoubtedly changes the way we play. It has happened, anyone knows what a gift it is to be able to ignore someone on the court especially if they're not a rebounding threat.

I don't disagree with your assertion that a team led by a shoot-first PG would likely have a faster pace of play, but there may be other factors involved in that FG attempts stat. I think the most important factor is we have several offensive players who like to attack the basket and draw fouls (Wig, Bazz, KAT and even Ricky)...as a result we have many possessions that result in no shot attempts, but instead ranked season in the league to Houston (cough, cough...Harden) in free throw attempts.

While I had problems with the Wolves' defense last year, I think their offense was just fine...and Ricky had a lot to do with that. Leading a starting team consisting of 3 guys too young to drink and a center playing PF to the 15th most points scored is a pretty nice achievement.

[Monster]

Kahns -- Teams are going to start cutting off his passing lanes? What have these teams been waiting for? Maybe coaching staffs around the League should start reading this message board so they can find out what a terrible shooter Ricky is and make the appropriate adjustments defensively. Last I looked, Ricky continued last season to be among the League's leaders in assists and in assist/turnover ratio. So maybe teams will start cutting off those passing lanes next season -- Ricky's 6th.

I'd love it if Ricky were a better shooter. But he's not a good shooter and don't expect he'll ever be. Just seems to be an inherent flaw in his game. But it hasn't stopped him from being very good to elite for his position in multiple other categories -- e.g., assists, steals, rebounding. And it hasn't stopped him from being a major net team positive on the court. If Dunn ultimately proves to be better than Ricky, then Dunn should at that time become our starting PG after which Ricky should be traded or serve as Dunn's backup. It's that simple. Otherwise, the seemingly angry vitriol regarding Ricky and suggestions of some sort of accountability gap strikes me as sort of strange and misplaced.

There's a recurring narrative on this board that defenses can slack off Rubio and cut off his passing lanes, and that that flaw will be highlighted in the playoffs. But to Lip's point, why hasn't this happened yet? The reason is that, like most NBA guards, Ricky will make most of his shots if he is left unguarded, and defenses can't take that risk. Ricky is a poor jump shooter, and seems to miss 80% of his threes when he is closely guarded, but watch him shooting pre-game or at half time without a hand in his face...he makes almost every one of his threes when he is practicing. Even though I don't think Ricky will ever rank in the top half of PGs in shooting percentage, I will let Ricky take a wide-open three any time...there's a better than 50% chance he'll make it.

Who says our offense and opposing team's defense hasn't changed because of Rubio? We averaged the 2nd fewest FG attempts per game last season, which greatly affects our pace of play and our ability to score. I think it may be logical to infer that this is because our primary ball handler doesn't shoot and therefore we need to cycle through other options, taking us longer to get into sets. It is different than a guy who doesn't handle the ball not scoring and undoubtedly changes the way we play. It has happened, anyone knows what a gift it is to be able to ignore someone on the court especially if they're not a rebounding threat.

I don't disagree with your assertion that a team led by a shoot-first PG would likely have a faster pace of play, but there may be other factors involved in that FG attempts stat. I think the most important factor is we have several offensive players who like to attack the basket and draw fouls (Wig, Bazz, KAT and even Ricky)...as a result we have many possessions that result in no shot attempts, but instead ranked season in the league to Houston (cough, cough...Harden) in free throw attempts.

While I had problems with the Wolves' defense last year, I think their offense was just fine...and Ricky had a lot to do with that. Leading a starting team consisting of 3 guys too young to drink and a center playing PF to the 15th most points scored is a pretty nice achievement.

The Wolces played slow a lot of last year. That wasn't Rubio's fault. Sam kept them going slow for around half the season. Remember Rubio yelling at Dieng to get him the ball and push it?