Vegas Over/Under

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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
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Re: Vegas Over/Under

Post by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564] »

monsterpile wrote:People go on and on about the additions to this team (including me) but what about the subtractions? KG played 38 games and when he played he was effective. Andre Miller was plenty effective when he played and if it was about winning he probably should have played more. Prince was a flawed but effective player. Now you can make an argument for Martin and Pek being addition my subtraction but Is everyone on this roster going to be easily above replacement level this year? We don't have to include Payne we all expect him to suck if he is on the roster. lol anywho keep up the optimism but I thought a couple vets from last year deserved a bit of Iove.


Yeah, I was waiting for someone to poke holes in my logic...fair post, monster. I've actually thought the same thing as I've crafted my optimistic posts. It's inconsistent for me to say that the Wolves injury experience last year was actually not so favorable because they lost their best +/- player (KG) for most of the year, but not count his departure as a loss. I also think the loss of Tay's defense will be a negative. I like Andre Miller, but he was so absurdly bad on defense last year I don't miss him at all.

But there is an offsetting argument to your post. None of the guys who are now gone were major factors in the team's near .500 performance the last 19 games. While KG and Tay were vital parts of the 4-4 start, they were hurt or invisible at the end of the season. for that reason, I still argue that a .500 record that we achieved without these vets is my baseline for improvement this year.
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Monster
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Re: Vegas Over/Under

Post by Monster »

longstrangetrip wrote:
monsterpile wrote:People go on and on about the additions to this team (including me) but what about the subtractions? KG played 38 games and when he played he was effective. Andre Miller was plenty effective when he played and if it was about winning he probably should have played more. Prince was a flawed but effective player. Now you can make an argument for Martin and Pek being addition my subtraction but Is everyone on this roster going to be easily above replacement level this year? We don't have to include Payne we all expect him to suck if he is on the roster. lol anywho keep up the optimism but I thought a couple vets from last year deserved a bit of Iove.


Yeah, I was waiting for someone to poke holes in my logic...fair post, monster. I've actually thought the same thing as I've crafted my optimistic posts. It's inconsistent for me to say that the Wolves injury experience last year was actually not so favorable because they lost their best +/- player (KG) for most of the year, but not count his departure as a loss. I also think the loss of Tay's defense will be a negative. I like Andre Miller, but he was so absurdly bad on defense last year I don't miss him at all.

But there is an offsetting argument to your post. None of the guys who are now gone were major factors in the team's near .500 performance the last 19 games. While KG and Tay were vital parts of the 4-4 start, they were hurt or invisible at the end of the season. for that reason, I still argue that a .500 record that we achieved without these vets is my baseline for improvement this year.


Well I will add that Prince played 77 games so he was still a contributor during the stretch run even if his role was lessened he was still contributing.

I feel like that late stretch is now just an absolute to go off of. It's a nice stretch and gives real reason for optimism but idk if it should be treated with quite that strong assurance.

The reality is that a lot of these projections are based on potential. I think the potential the Wolves have is worth being excited about but that's what it is. There are some fairly proven things about this team led by Thibs as the coach but we are projecting a lot but for once it doesn't feel quite as much of a homer type deal partly because we actually saw the younger players do it and at times do it against some really good teams. I am more looking to enjoy the ride of this season (not just for the wolves there are other interesting teams) and not worried so much about expectations so much unless they really flounder which something pretty whacky will have to happen for that to happen imo. I'll leave the betting to other folks which at this point seems like a good move because I would have lost money until last year!
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Coolbreeze44
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Re: Vegas Over/Under

Post by Coolbreeze44 »

monsterpile wrote:People go on and on about the additions to this team (including me) but what about the subtractions? KG played 38 games and when he played he was effective. Andre Miller was plenty effective when he played and if it was about winning he probably should have played more. Prince was a flawed but effective player. Now you can make an argument for Martin and Pek being addition my subtraction but Is everyone on this roster going to be easily above replacement level this year? We don't have to include Payne we all expect him to suck if he is on the roster. lol anywho keep up the optimism but I thought a couple vets from last year deserved a bit of Iove.

Monster, we really haven't lost anything from the team that played close to .500 ball at the end of the season.
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Coolbreeze44
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Re: Vegas Over/Under

Post by Coolbreeze44 »

Oops, I see LST had a near identical take. My bad LST
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TXviking [enjin:6602528]
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Re: Vegas Over/Under

Post by TXviking [enjin:6602528] »

Lip brings up a point I think we forget, we were not a 27 win team. From playing Zach at PG, to giving Adreian Payne 485 minutes and to tanking a few games throughout the season. I agree with Lip, we were at least a 37 win team. So making the jump to 45 - 50 wins is not similar to the jump OK did.

And just to repeat the others: player development, depth, and fresh start with all this spirt I think will lead to 47 wins. Btw, I love hearing KAT one liners. He is going to be such a leader.
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Monster
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Re: Vegas Over/Under

Post by Monster »

Apparently this is the year the Luke Ridnour award will be retired.
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AbeVigodaLive
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Re: Vegas Over/Under

Post by AbeVigodaLive »

16 wins. 29 wins. 50+ wins?

That's a HUGE leap. As noted, it's close to a historic leap with essentially the same foundation. The closest I can think of is the 2010 Thunder who went from 23 wins to 50 wins. That team had 3 (eventual) All NBA players just breaking in to the L on it. There are similarities. But I don't know if all 3 Wolves will reach that level at any time in their careers.

So if I was a betting man (and technically, this topic is about betting) I don't know if I'm shooting for the anomaly over historical precedence. 40 - 45 wins is a very significant step forward for a very young team trying to create a culture of something other than abject crappiness and losing after the worst 12 years in recent NBA history.

Many think Thibodeau helps with that immediately. He has an impressive track record and most pundits lauded the hire. I dig it, too. But I also know that there are several other Western teams not about to roll over just because the Wolves have promising players.

GSW
SAS
OKC
LAC
UTAH
DAL
PORT
HOU
MEM
Even DEN and NO have reasons to be optimistic. The West is becoming top-heavy, but that's not necessarily making things easier for the teams in the #3 - #12 spots. It's a hodgepodge of decent to promising teams that will be battling it out. One untimely injury could be the difference between homecourt in the playoffs and watching them from home.

Basically, A LOT of moving parts have to work out for the Wolves to win 50+ games. That's not to say it won't happen... only that it might not be the likeliest of scenarios. Remember, these guys still have to learn "how to win" in the NBA. That's part of being young. And it's part of the fun... when they start to figure it out.

43 - 39. And I'd be happy if at the end of the year the foundation looks even more solidified moving forward.
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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
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Re: Vegas Over/Under

Post by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564] »

As I read the posts in this thread, I realize that there is actually almost 100% agreement that the Wolves will improve 10-15 wins this season. Where we differ is what the baseline should be. The more pessimistic (realistic?) guys have the baseline at the actual number...29 wins. The more optimistic guys say that the last quarter of the season is more indicative of how this team played under Sam, and that .500 (or 40 wins) is a more accurate baseline. Hence the difference between predicting 42-45 wins, or 50-55. But I have read nobody willing to bet the under, and that's quite exciting.

It's about time for Q to tee up his wins prediction thread. And of course I will follow it up with my prediction thread a few days before opening night just to annoy our favorite Philadelphia poster ;) .
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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
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Re: Vegas Over/Under

Post by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564] »

Leydon/Thibs were at Twin City Dunkers this morning...I dropped out of the group when I moved to California for a few years 5 years ago, but my girlfriend was there as Pitino's guest and took good notes for me. She learned nothing at all from Leydon...just more slick NY blah-blah-blah. Thibs was a little more forthcoming, but most of his talk was designed to lower expectations (big surprise)...he reminded everyone several times that this club is coming off a 29-win season (if I'd been there, I would have made my argument about them finishing the season as a .500 team...Thibs wouldn't have liked that).

Mostly platitudes from Thibs too (unusual for Dunkers where guests are usually a little more open), but with respect to individual players, he had the most to say about Tyus (my gal is a Duke grad, so she was happy about this). He raved about his off-season...transforming his body, and dominating at Summer League. Called him a "proven winner". I ate this up, of course, because I'm hoping to see Tyus and Dunn backing up Ricky and Zach, respectively.

Not much else to report here...it's Theydon, after all.
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AbeVigodaLive
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Re: Vegas Over/Under

Post by AbeVigodaLive »

longstrangetrip wrote:As I read the posts in this thread, I realize that there is actually almost 100% agreement that the Wolves will improve 10-15 wins this season. Where we differ is what the baseline should be. The more pessimistic (realistic?) guys have the baseline at the actual number...29 wins. The more optimistic guys say that the last quarter of the season is more indicative of how this team played under Sam, and that .500 (or 40 wins) is a more accurate baseline. Hence the difference between predicting 42-45 wins, or 50-55. But I have read nobody willing to bet the under, and that's quite exciting.

It's about time for Q to tee up his wins prediction thread. And of course I will follow it up with my prediction thread a few days before opening night just to annoy our favorite Philadelphia poster ;) .


It seems like the final 20 games of the season is getting a lot of play. Fair enough. Sometimes, it can be a precursor to the next season and show legit improvement, especially for a young team. This may/may not be helpful, but let's see how the Wolves fared while playing its very best ball over those 20 games compared to other playoff or possible playoff teams:

WOLVES - 10 - 10
Houston - 11 - 9
Utah - 11 - 9
Portland - 11 - 9
Dallas - 9 - 11 (but 7 - 2 to finish... how small of a sample size is too small?)
Memphis - 5 - 15 (with many injuries, something called Xavier Munford was getting 30 mpg by the end of the year)
LAC - 12 - 8
SAS - 14 - 6
DEN - 9 - 11
NOP - 6 - 14 (A. Davis out the last 13 games)
OKC - (didn't even bother, because of Durant)
GSW - (didn't bother)

East notables:
WASH - 11 - 9
BOS - 11 - 9
DET - 13 - 7
CHI - 10 - 10
MIA - 12 - 8
MIL - 7 - 13
ORL - 8 - 12
IND - 13 - 7
CHA - 14 - 6
ATL - 14 - 6

Wow. The East teams had a stronger finish. The Wolves at their best were pretty much in the mix with other teams. But they weren't superior. And aren't some of those teams going to improve, too? That's a lot of teams to leapfrog...
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