Vegas Over/Under

[Carlos Danger]

I think just for the simple fact that this is the Timberwolves, we have to temper expectations. The last time they went over 40 wins was 12 years ago. That said, yeah....if you bring in someone like Thibbs, I can understand why some might expect more/faster vs. letting Sam keep running things. The move to bring in Thibbs signaled that they are flipping the switch to "win now". I think the Vegas line is fair. But I would hope we get to the mid to upper 40's. Of course that's just going based on hope. We really have no idea what this team will look like yet until we start seeing them play under Thibbs. I'm not sure we can even assume we know the starting five yet.

[Coolbreeze44]

Not everybody claimed Thibs was going to make a huge difference. I'm hopeful for a big step forward, but still not totally sold. I know I'm not alone. I'll be happy if we crack 40, make the playoffs, and give a top tier team a scare in the first round.

Cool, I'm not sure anybody's worked harder than you to set expectations high in order to justify future complaining. Please stop exaggerating other people's claims/hopes just so you can say "I told you so."

Only 6 teams in the entire league cracked 50 wins last year. I haven't seen anyone, including serious Thibs backers, say they'll be disappointed in anything less than 50, especially in the West.

Drew, I don't think this is fair. I'm not the enemy here. I legitimately think we are going to take a big step forward this year. We might not be great the first 20 games or so, but I fully expect to get a big push from Thibs in his first year. I've said that since the day he was hired. I have doubts about succeeding years but I expect quite a honeymoon in '16-'17.

As far as being able to say I told you so, if we only win 40 games I will certainly be wondering if Sam couldn't have done the same thing. But there is no doubt LST and I were on an island when it came to our next coach. I don't think that's an exaggeration. I apologize to anyone else who didn't have Thibs as their first choice (possibly Lip?). But the general tenor of the board was overwhelmingly pro Thibs.

[60WinTim]

Not everybody claimed Thibs was going to make a huge difference. I'm hopeful for a big step forward, but still not totally sold. I know I'm not alone. I'll be happy if we crack 40, make the playoffs, and give a top tier team a scare in the first round.

Cool, I'm not sure anybody's worked harder than you to set expectations high in order to justify future complaining. Please stop exaggerating other people's claims/hopes just so you can say "I told you so."

Only 6 teams in the entire league cracked 50 wins last year. I haven't seen anyone, including serious Thibs backers, say they'll be disappointed in anything less than 50, especially in the West.

Drew, I don't think this is fair. I'm not the enemy here. I legitimately think we are going to take a big step forward this year. We might not be great the first 20 games or so, but I fully expect to get a big push from Thibs in his first year. I've said that since the day he was hired. I have doubts about succeeding years but I expect quite a honeymoon in '16-'17.

As far as being able to say I told you so, if we only win 40 games I will certainly be wondering if Sam couldn't have done the same thing. But there is no doubt LST and I were on an island when it came to our next coach. I don't think that's an exaggeration. I apologize to anyone else who didn't have Thibs as their first choice (possibly Lip?). But the general tenor of the board was overwhelmingly pro Thibs.

As it damn well should be!!!

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Not everybody claimed Thibs was going to make a huge difference. I'm hopeful for a big step forward, but still not totally sold. I know I'm not alone. I'll be happy if we crack 40, make the playoffs, and give a top tier team a scare in the first round.

Cool, I'm not sure anybody's worked harder than you to set expectations high in order to justify future complaining. Please stop exaggerating other people's claims/hopes just so you can say "I told you so."

Only 6 teams in the entire league cracked 50 wins last year. I haven't seen anyone, including serious Thibs backers, say they'll be disappointed in anything less than 50, especially in the West.

Agreed Drew. I'm already sick of hearing this. But we better get used to it. Much like Pork rides Rubio, these guys will ride Thibs all season.

[Coolbreeze44]

Not everybody claimed Thibs was going to make a huge difference. I'm hopeful for a big step forward, but still not totally sold. I know I'm not alone. I'll be happy if we crack 40, make the playoffs, and give a top tier team a scare in the first round.

Cool, I'm not sure anybody's worked harder than you to set expectations high in order to justify future complaining. Please stop exaggerating other people's claims/hopes just so you can say "I told you so."

Only 6 teams in the entire league cracked 50 wins last year. I haven't seen anyone, including serious Thibs backers, say they'll be disappointed in anything less than 50, especially in the West.

Agreed Drew. I'm already sick of hearing this. But we better get used to it. Much like Pork rides Rubio, these guys will ride Thibs all season.

After more than a decade of ineptness we can't be optimistic? I'm on the same side you are. I haven't heard anyone (including myself) "ride" Thibs. But I reserve the right to be critical if and when it's warranted.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Some of this post will echo Cool's thoughts on what our expectations should be this year, but this is my take.

1) The 2014-5 Wolves relied on team leaders who were the youngest in the league, and accordingly displayed great improvement throughout the year.

2) This improvement resulted in the young Wolves playing .500 basketball over the final 1/4 of the season, including impressive late season wins at OkC and Golden State.

3) History shows that 2nd, 3rd and 4th year players continue to show great improvement in the early stages of their careers...and sometimes dramatic improvement.

4) Given these three factors, it's logical to assume that a Sam Mitchell-coached team would have improved on their .500 pace (i.e. better than 41 wins this year) that they set at the end of last season...even without adding key players.

5) And yet they have added some key veterans with a winning pedigree in Rush, Aldrich and Hill...as well as a promising rookie in Dunn who seems more ready to contribute at a mature 22 years old than a typical rookie.

6) And they have added a head coach with a reputation for working his teams hard with the goal of maximizing regular season wins...an average of 51 wins per season in his 5 seasons as a head coach.

So considering all these factors, it baffles me that many posters seem to be satisfied with the Wolves merely continuing the .500 pace they were playing at toward the end of last season. That seems to give no credit at all to the expected development of our young players, the added depth provided by some solid veterans, and the coaching superiority of Thibs. Shouldn't these 3 factors add up to at least another 10 wins over last year's end-of-year pace?

Yes, I am setting high expectations for Thibs, but I think we all should. He has fallen into a dream coaching situation with some budding superstars that most pundits expect to show huge improvement this year. I agree that there may be some struggles in the early going as his players get used to his systems (just like last year's team didn't play as well the first half of the season), but our expectations still need to be better than the pace Sam set at the end of last year. Barring key injuries to guys like KAT, I will see 41 wins as a failure. Sam improved the team by 13 wins last year over Flip...Thibs needs to at least match that year over year improvement.

[Monster]

I'll wait to see what all happens that leads this team to only 41 wins before I say how disappointed I am by that outcome. I'm expecting more but there certainly could be stuff that keeps the Wolves from taking the big leap to 50 win territory. I think it should be VERY encouraging that Vegas has the Wolves around .500.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Halloween and Vegas over bets party in Vegas? Who's with me?

[SameOldNudityDrew]

Cool, I don't mean to be unfair, I just want us all to keep a level head. Some of the Thibs backers have, IMO, assumed a bit too much at times, I agree. But it's also not fair to try to set the bar really high for him. I feel like that was going on a bit with the Dunn pick too, with posts that he either needs to become a great starting PG and we need to trade Ricky for a great return or the whole thing was a bust. I just think that's setting the bar too high. We had a very good coach and what looks to be a very good player that we managed to pick up this year. I don't want to ruin the long-term pleasure of anticipating improvement by expecting to immediately jump into the top 6 teams in the league.

Cool and LST, you guys weren't totally alone on that island. I defended Sam more than many, and I wasn't totally sold on Thibs. I was kind of hoping for a Brad Stevens type of guy--I think maybe Jay Wright or even Kevin Ollie could have been that. For me, my hesitance about Thibs is partly because of the PT issue, but also because he just didn't seem to enjoy the job at the end in Chicago and the acrimony there is a bit of a warning flag even if ownership was largely responsible. He just doesn't quite strike me as having the leadership intangibles that I'd ideally like. That said, the dude has won a lot of games in the NBA and is widely respected, so signing him makes sense.

I want to give him a chance, and that's why I think it's too harsh to try to hold him to 50 wins this year or call him a bust. This team is still young, they were still a terrible defensive team last year, and they were also a bad 3 point shooting team--and they were lucky in terms of injuries last year. I love Towns, I like the Dunn pick, I like Ricky, I like Gorgui and some of the other guys we have, but man, 50 wins?! In the West? I am hoping for the best but I just want to make sure not to set expectations too high.

I've spent too long being disappointed in the Wolves. I'd rather be realistic or maybe even a little pessimistic so that I can be pleasantly surprised. Inside, I'm privately opDOUGistic. But I'll be happy with a healthy year, improvement in key areas, 40 wins and a fun run in the first round that promises more to come.

[Coolbreeze44]

Cool, I don't mean to be unfair, I just want us all to keep a level head. Some of the Thibs backers have, IMO, assumed a bit too much at times, I agree. But it's also not fair to try to set the bar really high for him. I feel like that was going on a bit with the Dunn pick too, with posts that he either needs to become a great starting PG and we need to trade Ricky for a great return or the whole thing was a bust. I just think that's setting the bar too high. We had a very good coach and what looks to be a very good player that we managed to pick up this year. I don't want to ruin the long-term pleasure of anticipating improvement by expecting to immediately jump into the top 6 teams in the league.

Cool and LST, you guys weren't totally alone on that island. I defended Sam more than many, and I wasn't totally sold on Thibs. I was kind of hoping for a Brad Stevens type of guy--I think maybe Jay Wright or even Kevin Ollie could have been that. For me, my hesitance about Thibs is partly because of the PT issue, but also because he just didn't seem to enjoy the job at the end in Chicago and the acrimony there is a bit of a warning flag even if ownership was largely responsible. He just doesn't quite strike me as having the leadership intangibles that I'd ideally like. That said, the dude has won a lot of games in the NBA and is widely respected, so signing him makes sense.

I want to give him a chance, and that's why I think it's too harsh to try to hold him to 50 wins this year or call him a bust. This team is still young, they were still a terrible defensive team last year, and they were also a bad 3 point shooting team--and they were lucky in terms of injuries last year. I love Towns, I like the Dunn pick, I like Ricky, I like Gorgui and some of the other guys we have, but man, 50 wins?! In the West? I am hoping for the best but I just want to make sure not to set expectations too high.

I've spent too long being disappointed in the Wolves. I'd rather be realistic or maybe even a little pessimistic so that I can be pleasantly surprised. Inside, I'm privately opDOUGistic. But I'll be happy with a healthy year, improvement in key areas, 40 wins and a fun run in the first round that promises more to come.

Drew, we're not too far apart in our views here. I was an Ollie guy myself. But now that we have our guy, I'm behind him even if I'm a bit wary about some things. I'll have some patience with things, but i'm antsy to win and win now. I'm totally pumped about getting this season started. I'm not 60 win Tim yet, but yeah, I'm ready for a big jump.