Nerlens Noel

[TheFuture]

Here is a stat to chew on

"There are exactly six players in NBA history who've put up the steal and block rates that Noel has in each of his two NBA seasons (min. 1,000 min): Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson, Andrei Kirilenko, Ben Wallace, Gerald Wallace, Nerlens Noel. That's incredibly impressive company, even without keeping in mind that Noel just turned 22 this month."

http://www.todaysfastbreak.com/nba-east/philadelphia-76ers/column-noel-teague-rumor-scary-76ers/

Yeah, that's pretty scary. Three of those guys are Hall of Famers (Olajuwon, Robinson, Wallace) and the others (Kirilenko, Wallace) were All-Stars and All-Defense selections. That's nothing to scoff at. Noel will likely have his own accolades to show for the impact he has on the game.

This article does a really good job of discussing Noel's defensive prowess. I advise those both for and against the trade to check it out.

http://bballbreakdown.com/2016/06/04/sixers-trade-nerlens-noel-jahlil-okafor/

Again, how much have you actually watched him. He puts up gaudy steal and block numbers but its because he constantly gambles. He finds himself out of position a lot, and he puts his teammates in tough spots.

[TheFuture]

I have no interest in Okafor. I like Noel and I acknowledge that there is merit to the argument for trading our 5th pick to get him. But wouldn't do the deal for a couple reasons. First, he'd be expensive to keep with his contract set to expire soon and I'm looking ahead to the max contracts we'll eventually have to give both KAT and Wiggins along with a near max deal perhaps for LaVine. Second, Noel is strictly a one-way player and I don't like the idea of giving up a 5th pick and then having to pay a lot to retain that sort of player.

I think the talk about acquiring Noel reflects at least partially the "grass is greener" syndrome. It seems that Gorgui's abilities are too easily overlooked or marginalized by some Wolves fans. The stats provided by TeamRicky are instructive. Noel is a terrific defender, but a pretty poor offensive player and bad free-throw shooter. Gorgui is solid on both ends. He has a nice shot and hits from the free throw line. He's a solid rebounder and good shot-blocker. He's a fierce competitor as well. And he's developed really good chemistry with his teammates, especially KAT. I'd rather have Gorgui plus one of the guys we're likely to get at #5 than just Noel.

I agree with all you said here, with the exception of having no interest in Okafor as I have slight interest in that trade. Like you, I think Dieng is undervalued here. The guy is a true two way player, who can stretch the floor along with KAT. They really are a dynamic pair of bigs in this league.

We should look at the playoffs dominant teams as our guideline. OKC, GS, and the Spurs all have 5 players on the court who are a real threat to score, and it makes it very difficult to defend. You can get away in today's NBA by having players being closer to one way offensive players, as long as you have a good team defensive scheme that everybody plays within. When you have a player, especially a post player, who is a liability on offense then it makes life 10x easier on the opposing defense and more difficult to operate your own offense. I have absolutely zero interest in clogging up the lane where Wiggins likes to feed.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I don't want to speak for Lip, Mike, but I think he's looking ahead one year to when we have to pay Wig and Zach...as well as Noel. It's almost impossible to make the math work without letting Gorgui, Belly and Bazz go. Yes, we'd have a great big man rotation for one year, but I don't see how we could keep G in 2017-8.

Zach and Wiggins have two years left on their rookie deals before an extension kicks in. We'd have to pay G and Noel at the same time, but neither are max guys or close it. If G goes out and gets 20 million in free agency then he should be gone anyway because he's not that good. He's not a high end starter. He's a high end backup. We have to stop thinking 3-4 years out when making moves now because anything could happen to change the equation at that time. You build for the next year or two and then figure out the next year or two after that. We're giving out huge contracts to guys 3-4 years before they actually get them and anything can happen between now and then. All we can do is hope they earn those contracts and are healthy when they get them, but neither may be the case so you can't build the team now for 3-4 years from now because too much can change in that much time to change how the team is gonna be built moving forward. What if you build the team assuming Zach is getting a max and he takes 15 per year? You could have spent that extra money on a better player, but you held it for something that never happened. That's dumb. On the other hand if Zach actually earns a max then you move other guys to make room for him. That's how you build. You don't build by holding money for guys. You wait until they earn it and then you make the moves to get it done.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Future, yes I have watched Noel. I wouldn't speak on the matter as much as I have if I was clueless to Noel's game. You say he puts teammates in bad spots, though that ignores the fact that the team defense is better with him on the floor than when he sits, the fact that he's among the leaders in deflections, the fact that he's one of the league leaders in DRPM, and the fact that he's among the best in Adjusted Points Saved Per Game. Almost any statistic points towards the idea that he's a damn good defender. The eye test confirms that for me with the way he's able to cover a lot of ground when he rotates to help, when he's able to show hard on screens and recover with ease, and when he's switched out on perimeter players it's not a brutal mismatch like it is with most bigs.

I'm also not sure what you mean about his finishing ability. He shot 71.6% from 0-3 feet last season. In comparison, DeAndre Jordan is a career 72.1% from the same range. Now, Noel can certainly improve from 3-10 foot range, but the guy isn't going to make a living out there. He will live at the rim.

[TheFuture]

Future, yes I have watched Noel. I wouldn't speak on the matter as much as I have if I was clueless to Noel's game. You say he puts teammates in bad spots, though that ignores the fact that the team defense is better with him on the floor than when he sits, the fact that he's among the leaders in deflections, the fact that he's one of the league leaders in DRPM, and the fact that he's among the best in Adjusted Points Saved Per Game. Almost any statistic points towards the idea that he's a damn good defender. The eye test confirms that for me with the way he's able to cover a lot of ground when he rotates to help, when he's able to show hard on screens and recover with ease, and when he's switched out on perimeter players it's not a brutal mismatch like it is with most bigs.

I'm also not sure what you mean about his finishing ability. He shot 71.6% from 0-3 feet last season. In comparison, DeAndre Jordan is a career 72.1% from the same range. Now, Noel can certainly improve from 3-10 foot range, but the guy isn't going to make a living out there. He will live at the rim.

He's on Philly. I hope, as one of their 2 best players (who's only calling card is defense), that they improve in that area when he is on the floor. I agree, he is a good defender. Most of the numbers will show that he is a very good one. Actually watching him play shows a different story. I assume you think he would come and be our PF right? Well, he's not nearly as good as a PF. His strengths on defense are amplified when he plays C. When guarding PFs he's terrible at closing out and often drifts toward the lane/hoop and leaves his man with a lot of room to operate. He's still got a ways to go. I do love his potential, but I never see him developing any kind of range/feel offensively, and therefore he is not worth the risk of a top 5 pick, especially when you take into account the risk of him being a rental. If you really think you want to bring Noel here, sign him for however many more years, and force KAT to play PF then I think you'd be making a huge mistake.

Fans likely see what GS, and other teams, do with their small ball lineups and see a force in Noel for what the NBA is moving towards. I don't see how it works. You can really only succeed with the small ball lineup with a big player who has offensive skills, not solely defensive ones. Noel creates absolutely zero mismatches because of this.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I don't want to speak for Lip, Mike, but I think he's looking ahead one year to when we have to pay Wig and Zach...as well as Noel. It's almost impossible to make the math work without letting Gorgui, Belly and Bazz go. Yes, we'd have a great big man rotation for one year, but I don't see how we could keep G in 2017-8.

Zach and Wiggins have two years left on their rookie deals before an extension kicks in. We'd have to pay G and Noel at the same time, but neither are max guys or close it. If G goes out and gets 20 million in free agency then he should be gone anyway because he's not that good. He's not a high end starter. He's a high end backup. We have to stop thinking 3-4 years out when making moves now because anything could happen to change the equation at that time. You build for the next year or two and then figure out the next year or two after that. We're giving out huge contracts to guys 3-4 years before they actually get them and anything can happen between now and then. All we can do is hope they earn those contracts and are healthy when they get them, but neither may be the case so you can't build the team now for 3-4 years from now because too much can change in that much time to change how the team is gonna be built moving forward. What if you build the team assuming Zach is getting a max and he takes 15 per year? You could have spent that extra money on a better player, but you held it for something that never happened. That's dumb. On the other hand if Zach actually earns a max then you move other guys to make room for him. That's how you build. You don't build by holding money for guys. You wait until they earn it and then you make the moves to get it done.

Thx for the correction, khans...I was a year off on end of rookie deals for Wig and Zach. Yes, the Wolves have no cap issues this year and next, but things get dicey in 2018-9. There's a difference of opinion on this board about the wisdom of long-term cap strategy...many subscribe to the theory that you should sign anyone you think can help now, and not worry about implications 3 years out. I acknowledge their basic argument that anything can happen, and that it's foolish to pass on a player because it might cause cap or tax issues in three years. But I think you can prudently add players who are still helpful, but who are less likely to cause you to get rid of core players in three years.

[Monster]

One thing to consider is that the Wolves have a 5 million dollar trade exception from the Budinger trade (expires July 12) so they could bring back Noel (or another similarly priced player) without having to send any salary back in exchange for the #5 pick. This matters since during the draft teams are still operation on this year's cap situation.

[TheFuture]

Everyone is also aware that Noel stalemated or regressed in nearly every category this year, right?

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

As I've said numerous times, it doesn't matter what position we add next to Towns, whether it's a power forward or a center. Towns' versatility allows him to play with any type of big.

I've also argued in the past that moving Towns to power forward *might* be better for his long-term health. I'm clearly not a doctor so I don't know what affects the body more over time -- playing on your toes against quicker players on the perimeter or banging with bigger players -- but we have seen plenty of centers get injuries here and there because of how physically demanding the center position is. Usually, it's feet and back injuries that slow a big man's career. We don't want that to happen to Towns. Again, it might not be an issue, but it's worth considering.

I see Thibodeau being creative/intelligent enough to use a Towns and Noel tandem to his advantage. Two of the most mobile bigs in the game with freakish length and instincts... I don't know how that doesn't excite you.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Everyone is also aware that Noel stalemated or regressed in nearly every category this year, right?

This is not true.

Noel improved his PER, TS%, FTr, TRB%, AST% and stayed the same in STL% from his rookie year to his sophomore year. He dipped a little bit in BLK% and TOV%.