Camden wrote:We're discussing fourth quarters of playoff games that we haven't even made yet. Whether you like it or not, there just isn't an available upgrade at the moment. Drafting a PG means we'll be grooming him to potentially take over for Rubio, but that's three/four years down the line. And the PGs that are elite (top-eight) aren't moving teams either. Making a move for a Conley/Teague/Hill/etc. does NOT make us a better team nor does it really move the needle in any direction. For those reasons, we'll stay with Rubio because the reality is that he's a top-15 player at his position and for now, the best point guard we can get our hands on. Not to mention, he really could help this core make the playoffs as long as the stars progress to the level that we hope they do.
At that point, then you can decide if he's a disaster in the playoffs. We don't know that yet and personally, I think the whole "defenses will force him to score" thing is overrated. The entire league already knows he has trouble scoring and yet he still finds a way to run the offense quite smoothly according to the numbers. And before I get snapped at, yes, I realize playoff basketball is different, but I trust Ricky's IQ enough to know that he won't fall into that sort of trap. He realizes his shortcomings and plays around them. Also, I think this is a debate that we should put on hold because it's clear that without Ricky, this team as currently constructed falls apart completely without him.
Agreed. Also, getting any of those other guards you mention doesn't solve the issue of what happens when they sit. If the theory is that the reason we suck so badly when Rubio sits down isn't because of how good he is, but instead, how bad his backups have been, then how does that change by swapping him out for Conley/Teague/Hill?
Ideally, we address the root cause by getting a young backup that could eventually push him for the starting role. Thus the appeal of Kris Dunn - unless some of you still think that guy could be Tyus Jones. Remember him? The guy Flip traded 3 2nd rounders for?
Phenom's_Revenge wrote:LeBron is and always has been option 1 2 3 and 4. His game is predicated on isolation. He is always at or near the top in usage. It's a very different situation.
Call me crazy but I just can't accept that the Wolves will lose a 7 game series because Ricky is clanking shots. If that happens, again, the Wolves made a huge mistake hiring the next coach.
We'll agree to disagree until it happens.
It's not like the possibility is completely foreign. We're seeing rotation and even better than rotation guys being marginalized in the playoffs by other good, smart coaches.
Did Joeger simply get outcoached by Kerr. Or, was Tony Allen's inability to do anything with a mismatch vs. Andrew Bogut on the player? Basically, we haven't seen Timberwolves playoff basketball for a very long time. Heck, we haven't even seen meaningful basketball in more than a decade. In close games, the smallest things can make a huge difference, like a PG who can't shoot.
The closest thing we have to illustrate this goes back to the 2014 season (again). The Wolves were a fringe playoff contender. And what's the one thing that held them back in a disappointing season?
4th quarter failures as teams tightened up defensively, officials bailed out the team less... and guys missed shots.
I attribute more to defense than offense. We had the fourth worst defense and some terrible individual defenders like Bazz, Kmart and Barea. Also Brewer, Budinger and D Williams were below average defenders. Ricky, Love and Pek were the three best players on that team. Ricky was ranked 29th in overall RPM and he's not the reason we struggled.
CoolBreeze44 wrote:
AbeVigodaLive wrote:
TeamRicky wrote:
AbeVigodaLive wrote:
Phenom's_Revenge wrote:LeBron is and always has been option 1 2 3 and 4. His game is predicated on isolation. He is always at or near the top in usage. It's a very different situation.
Call me crazy but I just can't accept that the Wolves will lose a 7 game series because Ricky is clanking shots. If that happens, again, the Wolves made a huge mistake hiring the next coach.
We'll agree to disagree until it happens.
It's not like the possibility is completely foreign. We're seeing rotation and even better than rotation guys being marginalized in the playoffs by other good, smart coaches.
Did Joeger simply get outcoached by Kerr. Or, was Tony Allen's inability to do anything with a mismatch vs. Andrew Bogut on the player? Basically, we haven't seen Timberwolves playoff basketball for a very long time. Heck, we haven't even seen meaningful basketball in more than a decade. In close games, the smallest things can make a huge difference, like a PG who can't shoot.
The closest thing we have to illustrate this goes back to the 2014 season (again). The Wolves were a fringe playoff contender. And what's the one thing that held them back in a disappointing season?
4th quarter failures as teams tightened up defensively, officials bailed out the team less... and guys missed shots.
I attribute more to defense than offense. We had the fourth worst defense and some terrible individual defenders like Bazz, Kmart and Barea. Also Brewer, Budinger and D Williams were below average defenders. Ricky, Love and Pek were the three best players on that team. Ricky was ranked 29th in overall RPM and he's not the reason we struggled.
This is the over-the-top pro Rubio type of post that seems to frustrate some around here.
The Wolves were a top 10 defense for most of that season... definitely during the first 60 games of the season. And that team definitely lost more than its share of close games in the 4th quarter. And the overall offensive efficiency and production definitely went down in the 4th quarter. And Rubio definitely struggled in those 4th quarters.
All of this has been documented... at the time... and rehashed here... many times.
I don't see how any of that can be argued.
Good post Abe. This is the rationale that makes the most sense in this debate.
This is the over-the-top pro Rubio type of post that seems to frustrate some around here.
The Wolves were a top 10 defense for most of that season... definitely during the first 60 games of the season. And that team definitely lost more than its share of close games in the 4th quarter. And the overall offensive efficiency and production definitely went down in the 4th quarter. And Rubio definitely struggled in those 4th quarters.
All of this has been documented... at the time... and rehashed here... many times.
I don't see how any of that can be argued.
Good post Abe. This is the rationale that makes the most sense in this debate.
I'll tell you what is frustrating. Its all the Ricky bashing. The guy has to be the most unappreciated player the Wolves have ever had. The Wolves consistently play better with Ricky on the court, but somehow its never the fault of all the subpar players he is surrounded by. Oh geez. It was KG's fault, Love's fault and now Ricky's fault. LOL
I think you're significantly misrepresenting MANY of the Rubio takes on this board.
You are definitely off the mark if you're responding to me. And I could prove it with about 8 dozen posts that clearly refute what you just wrote.
Then again, I refuted your last inaccurate statement and that didn't stop you.
Phenom's_Revenge wrote:LeBron is and always has been option 1 2 3 and 4. His game is predicated on isolation. He is always at or near the top in usage. It's a very different situation.
Call me crazy but I just can't accept that the Wolves will lose a 7 game series because Ricky is clanking shots. If that happens, again, the Wolves made a huge mistake hiring the next coach.
We'll agree to disagree until it happens.
It's not like the possibility is completely foreign. We're seeing rotation and even better than rotation guys being marginalized in the playoffs by other good, smart coaches.
Did Joeger simply get outcoached by Kerr. Or, was Tony Allen's inability to do anything with a mismatch vs. Andrew Bogut on the player? Basically, we haven't seen Timberwolves playoff basketball for a very long time. Heck, we haven't even seen meaningful basketball in more than a decade. In close games, the smallest things can make a huge difference, like a PG who can't shoot.
The closest thing we have to illustrate this goes back to the 2014 season (again). The Wolves were a fringe playoff contender. And what's the one thing that held them back in a disappointing season?
4th quarter failures as teams tightened up defensively, officials bailed out the team less... and guys missed shots.
I attribute more to defense than offense. We had the fourth worst defense and some terrible individual defenders like Bazz, Kmart and Barea. Also Brewer, Budinger and D Williams were below average defenders. Ricky, Love and Pek were the three best players on that team. Ricky was ranked 29th in overall RPM and he's not the reason we struggled.
This is the over-the-top pro Rubio type of post that seems to frustrate some around here.
The Wolves were a top 10 defense for most of that season... definitely during the first 60 games of the season. And that team definitely lost more than its share of close games in the 4th quarter. And the overall offensive efficiency and production definitely went down in the 4th quarter. And Rubio definitely struggled in those 4th quarters.
All of this has been documented... at the time... and rehashed here... many times.
I don't see how any of that can be argued.
Good post Abe. This is the rationale that makes the most sense in this debate.
Adelman also drifted toward moving Ricky into the corner like Barca did. My point is that he should have the ball in his hands.
My eye test says Ricky scores better off the dribble. If teams want to sag off of him when he is parked in the slot or the corner then what we know tells us that the Wolves will run into trouble. If they want to sag of off him when he is turning a corner and while dribbling, I like Ricky taking those pull up jumpers. He can hit those and keep a D honest.
But as has been the case since he has been here is to iso Love and Wiggins on the perimeter and spot Ricky up which hardly worked regardless if Ricky gets it or not. I say keep the ball in Ricky's hands more and he will do just fine.
thedoper wrote:How does Conley not make us better? He is clearly better than Rubio. If you mean it doesn't make us better because there is no guarantee to keep him I guess I get it. But if we can get him long term we're better with Conley.
He might be better than Rubio, but the difference isn't to the point where it's really that meaningful. Also, paying Conley $20-24M per year, compared to Rubio at $14M, for that slight improvement just isn't worth it, in my opinion.
I do realize that I'm talking to someone who thinks Conley replacing Rubio makes this team we have right now a .500 ball club... So, in your case, Conley's an MVP candidate and it'd be a no-brainer to acquire him.
thedoper wrote:How does Conley not make us better? He is clearly better than Rubio. If you mean it doesn't make us better because there is no guarantee to keep him I guess I get it. But if we can get him long term we're better with Conley.
He might be better than Rubio, but the difference isn't to the point where it's really that meaningful. Also, paying Conley $20-24M per year, compared to Rubio at $14M, for that slight improvement just isn't worth it, in my opinion.
I do realize that I'm talking to someone who thinks Conley replacing Rubio makes this team we have right now a .500 ball club... So, in your case, Conley's an MVP candidate and it'd be a no-brainer to acquire him.
If we're going with salaries... is Teague at $8M the better option then?
Personally, I don't know. I think the team would be better in some ways, worse in others. Just noting the salary difference between them is close to the difference between Conley and Rubio (not that the Wolves are in need of saving money at the moment...)
thedoper wrote:How does Conley not make us better? He is clearly better than Rubio. If you mean it doesn't make us better because there is no guarantee to keep him I guess I get it. But if we can get him long term we're better with Conley.
He might be better than Rubio, but the difference isn't to the point where it's really that meaningful. Also, paying Conley $20-24M per year, compared to Rubio at $14M, for that slight improvement just isn't worth it, in my opinion.
I do realize that I'm talking to someone who thinks Conley replacing Rubio makes this team we have right now a .500 ball club... So, in your case, Conley's an MVP candidate and it'd be a no-brainer to acquire him.
I think Conley is the 5th best PG in the league and gets grossly under-appreciated in Memphis. Plus this is the year to sign a top tier FA. Everyone will have cap room but it will precede a second cap jump next year. The rest of the League is going to be making moves this offseason, no reason why we shouldn't spend.
thedoper wrote:How does Conley not make us better? He is clearly better than Rubio. If you mean it doesn't make us better because there is no guarantee to keep him I guess I get it. But if we can get him long term we're better with Conley.
He might be better than Rubio, but the difference isn't to the point where it's really that meaningful. Also, paying Conley $20-24M per year, compared to Rubio at $14M, for that slight improvement just isn't worth it, in my opinion.
I do realize that I'm talking to someone who thinks Conley replacing Rubio makes this team we have right now a .500 ball club... So, in your case, Conley's an MVP candidate and it'd be a no-brainer to acquire him.
I agree. Also keep in mind Conley is 3 years older than Ricky.
thedoper wrote:How does Conley not make us better? He is clearly better than Rubio. If you mean it doesn't make us better because there is no guarantee to keep him I guess I get it. But if we can get him long term we're better with Conley.
He might be better than Rubio, but the difference isn't to the point where it's really that meaningful. Also, paying Conley $20-24M per year, compared to Rubio at $14M, for that slight improvement just isn't worth it, in my opinion.
I do realize that I'm talking to someone who thinks Conley replacing Rubio makes this team we have right now a .500 ball club... So, in your case, Conley's an MVP candidate and it'd be a no-brainer to acquire him.
If we're going with salaries... is Teague at $8M the better option then?
Personally, I don't know. I think the team would be better in some ways, worse in others. Just noting the salary difference between them is close to the difference between Conley and Rubio (not that the Wolves are in need of saving money at the moment...)
Teague has 2016-17 as his last year making $8M and then he's a free agent. You can bet he'll eclipse Rubio's $14M per year mark as well.
thedoper wrote:How does Conley not make us better? He is clearly better than Rubio. If you mean it doesn't make us better because there is no guarantee to keep him I guess I get it. But if we can get him long term we're better with Conley.
He might be better than Rubio, but the difference isn't to the point where it's really that meaningful. Also, paying Conley $20-24M per year, compared to Rubio at $14M, for that slight improvement just isn't worth it, in my opinion.
I do realize that I'm talking to someone who thinks Conley replacing Rubio makes this team we have right now a .500 ball club... So, in your case, Conley's an MVP candidate and it'd be a no-brainer to acquire him.
Conley 2015-16 On Court: +1.3
Conley 2015-16 Off Court: -3.3
Rubio 2015-16 On Court: +.7
Rubio 2015-16 Off Court: -8.9
So even if we just ignore the fact Conley is playing with the same grindhouse crew he's had for years now (Randoph, Gasol, etc.), his squad is barely better than Rubio when he is on the floor.
But the bigger issue is if we swap these two out is the other number. How does Mike Conley help us with the -8.9 part when he sits?
I'm having a hard time seeing how Mike Conley instantly turns the Wolves into a .500 team.
thedoper wrote:How does Conley not make us better? He is clearly better than Rubio. If you mean it doesn't make us better because there is no guarantee to keep him I guess I get it. But if we can get him long term we're better with Conley.
He might be better than Rubio, but the difference isn't to the point where it's really that meaningful. Also, paying Conley $20-24M per year, compared to Rubio at $14M, for that slight improvement just isn't worth it, in my opinion.
I do realize that I'm talking to someone who thinks Conley replacing Rubio makes this team we have right now a .500 ball club... So, in your case, Conley's an MVP candidate and it'd be a no-brainer to acquire him.
I think Conley is the 5th best PG in the league and gets grossly under-appreciated in Memphis. Plus this is the year to sign a top tier FA. Everyone will have cap room but it will precede a second cap jump next year. The rest of the League is going to be making moves this offseason, no reason why we shouldn't spend.
To be fair, everybody and their three-legged dog has cap space and will be paying ridiculous prices this summer with more money than free agents available. Heck, Ryan Anderson might command $20M per year.
Is that the party Wolves fans want to be invited to when the team is still probably at least another season away from the playoffs? Let the teams more desperate to win and without as much of a promising foundation overpay for now.
Figure out where the team stands with a new GM and coach and direction. THEN... make that splash to add pieces in '17.
[Note: Wait. When's the lockout happening? 2017 or 2018? In any event... it IS happening. Definitely. Get ready.]
