thedoper wrote:How does Conley not make us better? He is clearly better than Rubio. If you mean it doesn't make us better because there is no guarantee to keep him I guess I get it. But if we can get him long term we're better with Conley.
He might be better than Rubio, but the difference isn't to the point where it's really that meaningful. Also, paying Conley $20-24M per year, compared to Rubio at $14M, for that slight improvement just isn't worth it, in my opinion.
I do realize that I'm talking to someone who thinks Conley replacing Rubio makes this team we have right now a .500 ball club... So, in your case, Conley's an MVP candidate and it'd be a no-brainer to acquire him.
Of course it's a big difference. What are the Wolves saving that money for? A run at Durant? Wolves can go over the cap to sign Wiggins and Towns. We need to save that money so we overpay for some crappy free agent or underachieving draft pick?
It's not about saving money. It's about value. Rubio age 25/26 at $14M to me and probably a lot of others is better value than Conley at 28/29 at $22M. They aren't that far apart in on-court production, but will have close to $8M difference in yearly salary. That's just... Why would you rather pay that much more for something doesn't move the needle that much? It may not seem like it, but spending wisely is still imperative.
Also, I'm well aware that the Wolves can spend over the cap to re-sign their players coming off rookie contracts. That has nothing to do with what I'm talking about.
I don't see why age has much to do with it. I don't think there's some higher ceiling that Rubio can get to. Conley has also been a hell of a lot more durable then Rubio as well
Q12543 wrote:Abe, Yes, his team mates really have been that bad. Just look at last season's team which played mostly without Rubio (he was 13th in total minutes last season due to the injuries). We won only 16 games and had one of the worst defenses in history. We were 7-14 when he played and 9-52 when he didn't play. I'm not sure how you could expect someone like Rubio to take a 9-52 squad and turn them into winners. May be LeBron and Russell Westbrook can do it. But that might be about it.
Now as we go to this year, the top 3 players from last season in minutes played - Wiggins, Dieng, and LaVine - are also major parts of the rotation this season. Have these guys improved? Yes, but not dramatically, and for Wiggins and LaVine, we are still very early in their careers. Hopefully we'll see much more progress, but the bottom line is the 3 top players from the 16-win version are still major rotation guys on this squad. Why should we expect them to suddenly be winners?
And don't forget his rookie year Abe where yes, he did have a winning record before getting hurt. We were 21-20 when he goes down. We then proceed to go 5-20 the rest of the way. Yes, he had Kevin Love and Pek, but he also had Wes Johnson, Luke Ridnour, and Derrick Williams as the next three top guys in terms of minutes played that year. I would characterize those three as less-than-optimal team mates as your 2nd, 3rd, and 4th players in minutes played....and he took them to 21-20, so he was a winner, right?
As for 2013-14, we definitely underachieved versus what we did on paper that year in terms of point differential. It's fair to assign Rubio his fair share of the blame for that horrible streak of close losses. But just what is his "fair share"? How much should be assigned to Love and Pek? What about Adelman sticking with Barea too long? And what about just plain old bad luck? I've said this many times, but for that horrible streak of close losses we had early in the season, we went 6-2 in close games in the second half of the season with Rubio closing out games. What happened?
I personally don't think the "he's not been on a winning team" argument holds water unless we're bickering over his MVP or HoF credentials, in which case I'd agree of course.
To your first point: Your implying that it was just Rubio who missed time that season and not pretty much every single player on the roster minus Wiggins. So that is clearly incorrect.
To your 2nd point: So they haven't improved from when they didn't play from Ricky, to now playing with Ricky, but the big thing with Ricky is that he makes everybody around him better. Kinda saying two things from that point.
Ah yes the rve and Pek.
As for making other players better, let's not play sookie year, we've gotten to the point where it's just assumed were going to the playoffs if Ricky didn't get hurt and it was 100% in the bag. Not the case.
Last point: Rubio shot 18% in the 4th quarters that year. Yes he gets his fair share. Not only the missed shots, but he lost so much confidence, he would flat out refuse to shoot
Alex, my post was in response to Abe's claim that if Rubio is not the problem, then boy, he must have had some pretty crappy team mates. And my answer is that yes - yes he did have some pretty poor team mates - ESPECIALLY when the better team mates got hurt, like Lotupid. Rubio can help a team offense click better, but he's not going to fundamentally transform any individual player into something he's not.
As for his rookie year, I have no clue if they would have made the playoffs or not. Abe claims that Rubio has never had a winning record. That year he guided the team to a 21-20 record before he got hurt. Once he got hurt, they went 5-20. Can you explain why they went 5-20 after he got hurt and how his absence had nothing to do with it?
As for his 18% shooting in 4th quarters that year, I'm not sure where you are getting that number. How was his shooting when we went 6-2 in close games in the second half of the season? Did it even matter?
I mean they went 21-20, ok is that really some big accomplishment for any player in their 5th season when it comes to being called a winner?
Sure he's had some crappy teammates, he's had some good teammates too, I don't think he's played that much different between the two. I mean, as good as Wiggins and Towns are now, I think Love and Pek's season was better, and Rubio's numbers are better (not much better, but better).
Yea he was a reason why the Wolves went 5-20 because he got hurt (Love missed time in there as well). Again, I don't like giving Rubio "credit" when he misses time and the Wolves stink. Part of being valuable is being on the court. You can assume they would do better, but who knows, they could of still missed the playoffs that year and went into a tailspin.
No that shooting really didn't matter, they lost so many of those close games that they were pretty much out of it the last 2 months of the season.
Again, there is a difference between claiming Rubio has been part of the problem, and thinking that they are blaming everything on Rubio. Teams don't miss the playoffs 5 years in a row, and the ONLY constant in those 5 years has been Rubio.
Rubio brings elite skills to the table in every facet of the game besides scoring. Passing, court vision, ball handling, pick-and-roll offense (Towns sure is enjoying that action), and stifling defense at the league's deepest position on a nightly basis.
In his fifth NBA season, Rubio is posting career-highs in PER (18.1), true shooting percentage (.505), free throw rate (.537), free throw percentage (.826), turnover percentage (19.4), and offensive rating (109 points per 100 possessions). He's also registered his highest shooting percentage (.500) from 0-3 feet through 48 games. In the first year of his new four-year deal, he's proving his worth on a young roster in need of a floor general to distribute the rock and set the tone. Over the next three seasons, that contract should only grow more advantageous as the cap could rise as high as $108 million in 2017-18 (via Zach Lowe); his deal will look that much better as time passes. Plenty of players will get paid more than Rubio over the length of his deal, and a majority of those guys likely won't touch his impact on the court.
For example, the impending cap spike was felt before the season even got underway. Toronto paid Terrence Ross $33 million over three years based solely on potential. Goran Dragic, 29, scored a $90 million deal over five years to stay with the Miami Heat during the offseason. $58 million for Omer Asik. $80 million for Reggie Jackson. What about Enes Kanter ($70M), Tristan Thompson ($82M) and Wes Matthews ($70M)? Players are getting paid handsomely with the cap increase in mind and in the new economic environment Rubio's deal looks like an absolute bargain compared to the field.
With the bogus trade rumors, started by a few throwaway sentences by Frank Isola, the internet was briefly sent into the Rubio-trade-oblivion for 24 hours. It seemed like plenty of outlets started questioning his worth. Compared to popular opinion, Rubio might be the NBA's most underrated player. Thus, I think it's time for the nation to reassess the way they discuss his game. Anybody that watches him regularly understands the elephant in the room: he's a terrible shooter who struggles to score, and that's always been the case, but he's still an above-average point guard that makes his team infinitely better at every turn by using the topflight traits he possesses. That point seems to go largely ignored by the national media.
I've become fully convinced that writers, analysts, broadcasters, and fans -- both casual and hardcore -- cannot truly understand the value of Rubio if they do not watch the Wolves religiously or completely buy-in to what the analytics say about his tremendously positive impact. With the ball-handling maestro running the show on both ends of the court, Minnesota is a legitimate basketball team. Without him in the lineup, the results are Sixers-esque. His +9.6 net rating per 100 possessions (according to basketball reference) is perfect evidence; the Wolves are +0.7 points when he plays and -8.9 points when he sits (per 100).
"Ricky [Rubio] just controlled the game and ran the show," interim coach Sam Mitchell said after beating the Chicago Bulls at Target Center in front of the best crowd in recent memory less than two weeks ago.
Rubio runs the show on a nightly basis, though his impact won't go noticed on a large scale until the team starts winning frequently. Quietly, however, he's become one of the most underrated players in the league, if not the most, which is a label consistently thrown around in professional sports, but the conversations surrounding the divisive point guard often center around one major weakness (scoring) while ignoring how elite every other part of his game is. Basing an entire evaluation of his value around his inability to score lacks depth to begin with. Plenty of people talk about him like he's utterly replaceable. I always sit back waiting for the positives, but too often they seem like an afterthought. It's simply: Rubio can't shoot, Rubio can't score. A point guard that can't score in the modern NBA? Please! I hear the same critique over and over again. What about everything he does better than most point guards across the Association? Why is his defensive prowess habitually ignored?
It's only one advanced metric -- and the drop off from Rubio to Zach LaVine or Andre Miller as the point guard is monstrous enough to make him appear to be a godsend every time he touches the floor for the Wolves -- but Rubio ranks 18th overall in RPM* at 4.72.
Real Plus-Minus is defined as a player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions, taking into account teammates, opponents, and additional factors.
In short, RPM loves what Rubio does on the hardwood, as does Multi-year RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus). Clearly his game translates in this regard.
Rubio currently ranks fifth in assists per game at 8.6 -- behind Rajon Rondo, Russell Westbrook, John Wall, and Chris Paul -- and second in assist-to-turnover ratio (3.73) behind only Mike Conley (4.09). He's third in steals per game at 2.21, but ranks first in steal percentage at 3.7% and smart money is on him finishing first in that category for the third consecutive season. In 2012-13, he posted a devastatingly impressive 4.2 (the percentage of opponents possessions that end in a steal by Rubio when he's on the court). He's the league's biggest thief on the defensive end, but again, his major fault seems to overshadow his defensive ability. Moreover, only six point guards grab more rebounds per game (he's at 4.4 ). Westbrook (7.6) and Rondo (6.3) are the only lead guards that truly distance themselves from the rest.
The national conversation surrounding Rubio always centers around what he cannot do -- shoot and score -- rather than his elite defense, the impeccable court vision, how he consistently brings the best out of his teammates, his leadership and passion, the competitive fire that often leaves him searching for words that can do justice as the losing mounts up. He's an elite point guard in every category but one, and that's typically the area of focus when a majority of people talk about Rubio.
Thus, I remain convinced that he's one of the most underrated players in the NBA, especially given his contract and the fact that he's having the best season of his career well before hitting his prime.
Let me leave you with a list of the point guards with lower true shooting percentages than Rubio (.505) as of today: Dennis Schroder, D'Angelo Russell, Rajon Rondo, Michael Carter-Williams, Brandon Jennings, Aaron Brooks, Rodney Stuckey, Ty Lawson, Pablo Prigioni, Marcus Smart, Elfrid Payton, Jameer Nelson, Shabazz Napier, Greivis Vasquez, Derrick Rose, Norris Cole, Ish Smith, Jerian Grant, and Emmanuel Mudiay.
My last two posts were reprinted from a Canis Hoopus article. Are there better PGs than Ricky in the NBA? Sure. Kyrie Irving, J. Wall, Chris Paul, and Steph Curry come to mind. But we're not going to get them in a trade for Ricky -- unless perhaps we do something really dumb like including KAT, Wiggins or LaVine. We have a very good PG who is still young and locked up in a decent contract. He'd be a great PG is if could shoot and score consistently, but that's not who he is. But we're fortunate to have him.
Flip has left us with a nucleus of young talented scorers around him in KAT, Wiggins, LaVine and Shabazz. Ricky fits well with that group. Now these young guys have to develop. If they do, we'll have something really special here with Ricky and those guys. The real story has isn't Ricky or no Ricky. The real story is the development of our young trio of KAT, Wiggins and LaVine as well as Dieng.
lipoli390 wrote:My last two posts were reprinted from a Canis Hoopus article. Are there better PGs than Ricky in the NBA? Sure. Kyrie Irving, J. Wall, Chris Paul, and Steph Curry come to mind. But we're not going to get them in a trade for Ricky -- unless perhaps we do something really dumb like including KAT, Wiggins or LaVine. We have a very good PG who is still young and locked up in a decent contract. He'd be a great PG is if could shoot and score consistently, but that's not who he is. But we're fortunate to have him.
Flip has left us with a nucleus of young talented scorers around him in KAT, Wiggins, LaVine and Shabazz. Ricky fits well with that group. Now these young guys have to develop. If they do, we'll have something really special here with Ricky and those guys. The real story has isn't Ricky or no Ricky. The real story is the development of our young trio of KAT, Wiggins and LaVine as well as Dieng.
Lip I think your getting things a little confused. There's a difference between not trading Rubio because there isn't really a trade that makes sense for the Wolves, and not trading Ricky because he's so valuable. Problem is, there aren't many teams who would want to risk trading their point guard for Rubio. Point guard is just too deep of a position. If he was on a cheaper deal or rookie deal, I'm sure teams would give up something to be their backup. But for all the things he does well, a team does have to adjust to Rubio's shooting if he was on their team. It's a lot easier for a team to tell a guy not to shoot as much, as is it to tell him to shoot better
Q12543 wrote:Abe, Yes, his team mates really have been that bad. Just look at last season's team which played mostly without Rubio (he was 13th in total minutes last season due to the injuries). We won only 16 games and had one of the worst defenses in history. We were 7-14 when he played and 9-52 when he didn't play. I'm not sure how you could expect someone like Rubio to take a 9-52 squad and turn them into winners. May be LeBron and Russell Westbrook can do it. But that might be about it.
Now as we go to this year, the top 3 players from last season in minutes played - Wiggins, Dieng, and LaVine - are also major parts of the rotation this season. Have these guys improved? Yes, but not dramatically, and for Wiggins and LaVine, we are still very early in their careers. Hopefully we'll see much more progress, but the bottom line is the 3 top players from the 16-win version are still major rotation guys on this squad. Why should we expect them to suddenly be winners?
And don't forget his rookie year Abe where yes, he did have a winning record before getting hurt. We were 21-20 when he goes down. We then proceed to go 5-20 the rest of the way. Yes, he had Kevin Love and Pek, but he also had Wes Johnson, Luke Ridnour, and Derrick Williams as the next three top guys in terms of minutes played that year. I would characterize those three as less-than-optimal team mates as your 2nd, 3rd, and 4th players in minutes played....and he took them to 21-20, so he was a winner, right?
As for 2013-14, we definitely underachieved versus what we did on paper that year in terms of point differential. It's fair to assign Rubio his fair share of the blame for that horrible streak of close losses. But just what is his "fair share"? How much should be assigned to Love and Pek? What about Adelman sticking with Barea too long? And what about just plain old bad luck? I've said this many times, but for that horrible streak of close losses we had early in the season, we went 6-2 in close games in the second half of the season with Rubio closing out games. What happened?
I personally don't think the "he's not been on a winning team" argument holds water unless we're bickering over his MVP or HoF credentials, in which case I'd agree of course.
To your first point: Your implying that it was just Rubio who missed time that season and not pretty much every single player on the roster minus Wiggins. So that is clearly incorrect.
To your 2nd point: So they haven't improved from when they didn't play from Ricky, to now playing with Ricky, but the big thing with Ricky is that he makes everybody around him better. Kinda saying two things from that point.
Ah yes the rve and Pek.
As for making other players better, let's not play sookie year, we've gotten to the point where it's just assumed were going to the playoffs if Ricky didn't get hurt and it was 100% in the bag. Not the case.
Last point: Rubio shot 18% in the 4th quarters that year. Yes he gets his fair share. Not only the missed shots, but he lost so much confidence, he would flat out refuse to shoot
Alex, my post was in response to Abe's claim that if Rubio is not the problem, then boy, he must have had some pretty crappy team mates. And my answer is that yes - yes he did have some pretty poor team mates - ESPECIALLY when the better team mates got hurt, like Lotupid. Rubio can help a team offense click better, but he's not going to fundamentally transform any individual player into something he's not.
As for his rookie year, I have no clue if they would have made the playoffs or not. Abe claims that Rubio has never had a winning record. That year he guided the team to a 21-20 record before he got hurt. Once he got hurt, they went 5-20. Can you explain why they went 5-20 after he got hurt and how his absence had nothing to do with it?
As for his 18% shooting in 4th quarters that year, I'm not sure where you are getting that number. How was his shooting when we went 6-2 in close games in the second half of the season? Did it even matter?
I mean they went 21-20, ok is that really some big accomplishment for any player in their 5th season when it comes to being called a winner?
Sure he's had some crappy teammates, he's had some good teammates too, I don't think he's played that much different between the two. I mean, as good as Wiggins and Towns are now, I think Love and Pek's season was better, and Rubio's numbers are better (not much better, but better).
Yea he was a reason why the Wolves went 5-20 because he got hurt (Love missed time in there as well). Again, I don't like giving Rubio "credit" when he misses time and the Wolves stink. Part of being valuable is being on the court. You can assume they would do better, but who knows, they could of still missed the playoffs that year and went into a tailspin.
No that shooting really didn't matter, they lost so many of those close games that they were pretty much out of it the last 2 months of the season.
Again, there is a difference between claiming Rubio has been part of the problem, and thinking that they are blaming everything on Rubio. Teams don't miss the playoffs 5 years in a row, and the ONLY constant in those 5 years has been Rubio.
- Yes, Rubio QB-ing a team with Ridnour, Wes Johnson, and Derrick Williams as the #2, 3, and 4 guys in minutes played is a big accomplishment. Love and Pek were a big part of that squad too, but they had their own limitations. That was a very impressive season by Rubio until he got hurt.
- You missed my point on his team mates. It's about how the TEAM has performed, not Rubio's individual numbers.
- Fair point on his health and durability (or lack thereof). I can't argue with that. It also demonstrates how valuable he is to the team when he is healthy, no?
- When they started winning those close games in 13-14, they were most definitely NOT out of it by then. This is before the all-star break that the trend reversed itself.
- The Kings are going to miss the playoffs again and the ONLY constant in the last 6 years is Demarcus Cousins. I guess he must not be very good.
Again, never said Rubio was not very good, I know that any slight critism and people will automatically turn it up to 11, but I never said that. Yes Boogie does get blame, doesn't mean he isn't good, but yea he should get some blame and does, same with Rubio.
I guess I remember the Wolves always floating around .500 then the Suns went on tear around the ASB and pretty much left the Wolves in the dust.
Maybe the point is Rubio is fine, just not anything special
Let me leave you with a list of the point guards with lower true shooting percentages than Rubio (.505) as of today: Dennis Schroder, D'Angelo Russell, Rajon Rondo, Michael Carter-Williams, Brandon Jennings, Aaron Brooks, Rodney Stuckey, Ty Lawson, Pablo Prigioni, Marcus Smart, Elfrid Payton, Jameer Nelson, Shabazz Napier, Greivis Vasquez, Derrick Rose, Norris Cole, Ish Smith, Jerian Grant, and Emmanuel Mudiay.
Thanks for posting that article from Canis Lip.
The paragraph above is interesting. Rubio is actually having a career year in terms of scoring efficiency, but it's mostly because he gets to the line at a decent rate and makes a very good percentage on his free throws. His actual shooting efficiency is still in fact pretty terrible.
That being said, he deserves some credit for being able to draw fouls and knock down free throws at a high rate, as that's what drives his TS% above a lot of those other guys.
alexftbl8181 wrote:Again, never said Rubio was not very good, I know that any slight critism and people will automatically turn it up to 11, but I never said that. Yes Boogie does get blame, doesn't mean he isn't good, but yea he should get some blame and does, same with Rubio.
I guess I remember the Wolves always floating around .500 then the Suns went on tear around the ASB and pretty much left the Wolves in the dust.
Maybe the point is Rubio is fine, just not anything special
I won't disagree with you on that final point. I look at aggregated stats that look at everything from pure box score metrics, where he generally rates slightly above average, to the +/- stuff, where he generally rates top 5 or 6 for PGs. I put him somewhere in between. Which means he's.....fine. Not awesome. Not mediocre. But fine. A fine PG can indeed lead a team to wins if paired with some super fine players and a decent bench for once.
