Insider Wolves Article

[Coolbreeze44]

Thursday, April 21, 2016
5-on-5: What changes will Thibodeau make with Wolves?

By ESPN.com



Timberwolves
The Timberwolves have a solid group of young players.


With Tom Thibodeau taking over the Timberwolves, what moves will Thibs make? Will the Wolves win right away?

Our 5-on-5 crew talks about what we should expect from this exciting young team going forward.





1. Three pros and cons of the Thibodeau hire?

Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Pro: Thibs will help a defense that languished toward the bottom of the league in efficiency. There's no reason why a team with the defensive acumen of Ricky Rubio, Karl-Anthony Towns, Gorgui Dieng and Andrew Wiggins should be as terrible as Minnesota has been, and the expectation is this the biggest area for immediate improvement.

Pro: Thibs will bring credibility through preparation. A tireless film study buff, Thibs' dedication to the nitty-gritty details of the job will set the tone for the entire organization, trickling down to the roster, and set a culture for a franchise in desperate need for it.

Con: I'm all about separation of church and state, and am always wary of the coach who is given final say. The nature of a coach is to be in "win now" mode, while the nature of a front office guy is to see the big picture, and more often than not, when push comes to shove, the coach-president will behave like a coach before a president.

Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Con: Thibodeau's stubbornness when it comes to lowering the workload for starters --something Gregg Popovich deservedly gets praise for -- earned him a lot of criticism in Chicago. And based on what he has said, it doesn't seem like wants to deviate from his ways, which could be bad news for injury-prone players on the Wolves roster.

Pro: Thibodeau ranks sixth of 130 coaches in my coach metric (coach RAPM).

Con: He also got the title of president of basketball operations. He should concentrate on coaching.

David Thorpe, ESPN Insider: He was not only the best and lowest-risk coach available, he's also one of the four or five elite coaches in the league, period. They would have made the playoffs this past season with him, and seem certain to do so next season.

My one concern is his role as team president -- I think that's a big mistake. Each position is a full-time job, and one can enhance the success of the other. Not in this case.

Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The defense is going to get a whole lot better. Minnesota was 27th this season. Given its athleticism and size, I'd be shocked if the Wolves don't get into the top 10 next season. (That would mean chopping five points off their defensive efficiency, which is points allowed per 100 possessions.)

On the personnel front, I think Thibs is well situated after a year-long tour of studying the league, analytics, etc.

One con is that I worry about the minutes of Wiggins. Thibs has a hard time taking his best wing defender off the floor -- just ask Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler.

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: Pros: (1) Massive defensive upgrade and (2) sneaky improvement offensively given Thibodeau's track record of eschewing midrange jumpers in favor of higher-value 3-pointers.

Con: (3) Giving Thibodeau control of basketball operations, which generally isn't a good idea and doesn't fit his track record managing short-term and long-term goals.



2. Fact or Fiction: The Timberwolves should spend their cap space this offseason.


Elhassan: Fact, but not all of it. Best way to move a culture forward is with vets who know exactly what the coach is trying to instill and serve as leaders by both voice and example. That means not swinging for the fences in free agency, but a more targeted approach.

Engelmann: Fact. The Wolves haven't reached the playoffs in over a decade. Given that there are already two very young No. 1 picks on the roster, they don't need additional young players. Rather, they should enter win-now mode and start to accumulate more good players, as their bench was one of the worst in the league last season. If they could sign Nicolas Batum to a reasonable deal, that would be great for them.

Thorpe: "Should" is a strong word. I just think they should be open to it. Making the right moves to help them step up into the West's top tier for the long run is wise. Also, not every guy in the league will want to play for Thibs, so finding an improvement willing to come is important.

Doolittle: Faction. Thibodeau is in a great position. He can take a swing at a small group of ideal fits. If he misses, so what? Minnesota can sign a lower-cost shooter, fill out the bench, create a stir next season and be in the catbird's seat in 2017.

But if the right guy is there, why wait? I would love to see Harrison Barnes on that roster, for example.

Pelton: Fiction. Minnesota will be better positioned to strike in free agency in 2017, when the team will likely be a better draw for top free agents and will have more money available to spend.



3. Fact or Fiction: We have seen the Wolves' next playoff starting lineup.


Starting lineup at end of season: Ricky Rubio, Zach LaVine, Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng, Karl-Anthony Towns.

Elhassan: Fiction. I'm not saying that all those players won't still be on the roster, but there's got to be a couple of more established players in there to help this team take the next step.

Engelmann: Fiction. LaVine may wow the crowds with his spectacular dunks, but he plays like JaVale McGee in a guard's body -- with too many gambles that lead to easy baskets for opponents. He has a -3.6 RPM, and Wiggins is at -1.9. While Wiggins is likely to remain a starter for years to come, until they improve or there is a replacement for LaVine, it will be hard for the Wolves to make the playoffs.

Thorpe: Probably not. I love Dieng but see him as a starting center elsewhere. LaVine has to get smarter to prosper under Thibs as a starter. But the bigger point is, this team is loaded with talent and youth, giving President Thibs enormous trade options.

Doolittle: Fiction. It's close but I think we'll see more of a veteran 3-and-D type in that mix, with LaVine as a Sixth Man Award candidate. I know LaVine has developed as a shooter, but I think you get more utility from him if you're not trying to blend his usage rate full time with that of Wiggins and Towns.

Pelton: Fiction. As well as that group did, I still think Dieng fits better as a third big man than a starter. And LaVine's role on a contender might still be instant offense on the bench rather than starting shooting guard.





Tom Thibodeau
Tom Thibodeau had a 255-139 record in five seasons with the Bulls.


4. What intrigues you most about the Wolves going forward?

Elhassan: The combo of Wiggins and Towns. Given any player in the league to start a franchise, Towns might be the best name. He's the prototypical big of the future who can score on the inside, can space the floor from the perimeter, can defend the post and can defend out in space in pick-and-rolls, and is an excellent help defender. It doesn't hurt that he's also a great character guy.

Engelmann: I think it will be most interesting to see whether Thibodeau can work the same magic he did in Chicago. The Bulls jumped from 11th in defense to first. If he can get LaVine to play more solid D, get Towns to start boxing out and generally instill some solid defensive principles, a significant improvement in defensive efficiency -- they were 27th last season -- seems possible.

Thorpe: They have two Hall-of-Fame talents under the age of 22. Each can be the best player at his position in the world inside of five years. If you think Butler and Joakim Noah got better under Thibs, just wait until you see what he can do with these two future stars. That means a better motor for Wiggins and more assertiveness for KAT. And LaVine's best chance for being a star is playing for a strong coach. So, boom.

Doolittle: The level and depth of athleticism on the roster with a coach who will put that to optimal use. The defense is going to be fun to watch, not to mention the transition opportunities that spring from it. Thibs relies heavily on his point guard on defense, so he'll love Rubio.

Pelton: That unlike other teams with a transcendent talent like Towns (say Anthony Davis in New Orleans or LeBron James in Cleveland), the Timberwolves have so many other talented young prospects already on hand. That's what makes comparisons with the Thunder realistic, if still a bit hopeful.





5. How many games will Minnesota win next season?

Elhassan: 40. I think .500 is a bit too lofty a goal, but I can definitely see Minnesota being one of the most improved teams next year.

Engelmann: The Wolves, these last few years, have often looked good on paper, but something always seems to go awry, which makes me hesitant to give them a large bump in wins, even with an upgrade at coach and with players expected to improve naturally due to experience. If they're not active in free agency, I would not expect more than 34 wins next season.

Thorpe: As they stand today I would say 46-50, give or take a few. Yes, this team, with just another veteran player or two mixed in, has an outside chance to win 55 games. Believe it, Wolves fans, great times are ahead. Thibs may ultimately self-destruct -- we can't know yet. But we do know he is a brilliant coach at winning games, and this team is loaded to do that.

Doolittle: I think they'll get into the upper 40s, maybe even low 50s, so I'll just go with 50 as a round number. They got a lot better near the end of the season and with so many young players would have gotten better even without the coaching change. Thibs wouldn't have gone there if he didn't think Minnesota was ready to win.

Pelton: I think a .500 record is a realistic baseline, though there's certainly the potential for a rapid improvement along the lines of the one Oklahoma City made or the leap forward Chicago took during Thibodeau's first year at the helm. Those teams both added more talent than the Timberwolves likely will this offseason, however.

[TAFKASP]

Thanks for posting! I love Thorpe's enthusiasm!!

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

Thanks Cool. I like Thorpe's takes the best, seems to be the most optimistic. Interesting, nobody sees the starting 5 as good enough to compete. I disagree- I think they can.

[Duke13]

Yea Thorpe is the best. The guy is so smart talking basketball. I disagree with the narrative about Zack being an idiot on the court and just being a "gunner" Jamal Crawford type. I'll admit I could be biased with Zack but I see his ceiling, and floor for that matter much higher.

Pelton is the other guy on that panel I really respect. He did say something that made sense about Lavine possibly coming off the bench because his usage rate could higher not playing the majority of his minutes with Wig and KAT.

I see a guy who plays extremely hard, is by no means a selfish player, likes getting other guys involved and is a great teammate. The one aspect of his game he needs drastic improvement on his his pick n roll game. He's brutal at times initiated the PnR, he picks up his dribble for no reason verses probing the defense with his dribble, thus making the defense react. I'm hoping with coaching and confidence this will improve.

[Monster]

Yea Thorpe is the best. The guy is so smart talking basketball. I disagree with the narrative about Zack being an idiot on the court and just being a "gunner" Jamal Crawford type. I'll admit I could be biased with Zack but I see his ceiling, and floor for that matter much higher.

Pelton is the other guy on that panel I really respect. He did say something that made sense about Lavine possibly coming off the bench because his usage rate could higher not playing the majority of his minutes with Wig and KAT.

I see a guy who plays extremely hard, is by no means a selfish player, likes getting other guys involved and is a great teammate. The one aspect of his game he needs drastic improvement on his his pick n roll game. He's brutal at times initiated the PnR, he picks up his dribble for no reason verses probing the defense with his dribble, thus making the defense react. I'm hoping with coaching and confidence this will improve.

Good post. I get where some of these guys are coming from with Zach when they say he could be a 6th man but I truly think some people are gonna have their eyes opened this coming year with Zach. Like Job K. has said on couple of occasions you can coach Zach hard. I think Thibs might be pretty good for him actually.

Also thanks Cool for posting this. These are interesting as they tend to give a smattering of perspectives on various topics.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

While all of them are decidedly less optimistic than I am when it comes to projected wins (except Thorpe who is exactly where I am if they add a key free agent), I agree with two of the takes that most of them agree on:

1) Thibs wearing two hats is not the ideal situation

2) Zach needs to be an instant offense 6th man for the Wolves to be a playoff team.

[Lipoli390]

Thanks for posting, Cool!

Thorp is by far the best basketball mind in that group and I too loved his enthusiasm for the Wolves. But the truth is that no national pundits, not even Thorpe, know nearly as much about the Wolves as a lot of astute fans who post regularly on this message board. That fact is readily apparent in these pundits' evaluation of Zach LaVine. Yes, his best role could turn out to be as a 6th man. But to be so utterly dismissive of him as a starter is ridiculous given Zach's skill set, young age, reputation for hard work, performance last season and trajectory of improvement over the past two seasons. Let's break it down a bit.

Last season, Zach averaged 14 points in 28 MPG, shooting 45.2% from the field and 38.9% from behind the arc. Compare those numbers to other starting shooting guards around the NBA. Note that, after the all-star break when he became the Wolves full-time starter at SG, he averaged 16.4 points in 35 MPG, shooting 48% from the field and 43.7% from behind the arc with 1.2 steals and only 2 turnovers per game. Those aren't just good numbers for a 21-year old in his second season after one year of college. Those are terrific numbers for a starting SG of any vintage in the League. Keep in mind also that the Wolves, with Zach as their starting SG post-all-star break, played nearly .500 ball, beating Portland and Golden State on the road. And of course we're all aware of Zach's incredible hops and tremendous speed with the ball. Those of us who watched consistently last season should have also noticed that Zach's defense, his biggest weakness, improved significantly. Then you have Zach's upward trajectory -- his numbers improving from his first season to his second and again over the course of last season. I guess that shouldn't be surprising given Zach's reputation as a gym rat constantly working on his game -- the sort of player who typically ends up getting the most out of his talents over time.

Note further that Zach accomplished all of the above under a head coach who no team seems interested in hiring whereas next season Zach will be playing under one of the elite head coaches in the League. Zach's basketball IQ has been unfairly criticized in my view, but for those who remain really concerned about that, note that Thibs helped turn a player with a negative basketball IQ named Derrick Rose into an all-star.

All this is not to say that it's silly to see Zach as more of a 6th man. But it is beyond ridiculous to summarily dismiss his potential as a starter as the pundits do. Zach clearly has all-star potential, but teamed as a starter with two likely future all-stars in KAT and Wiggins he doesn't even have to be an all-star caliber player to be highly effective. Keep in mind that a lot of championship contenders don't have all-star caliber players as their starting SGs and few have more than 2 all-star caliber players in their starting lineups.

[kekgeek]

Thanks for posting, Cool!

Thorp is by far the best basketball mind in that group and I too loved his enthusiasm for the Wolves. But the truth is that no national pundits, not even Thorpe, know nearly as much about the Wolves as a lot of astute fans who post regularly on this message board. That fact is readily apparent in these pundits' evaluation of Zach LaVine. Yes, his best role could turn out to be as a 6th man. But to be so utterly dismissive of him as a starter is ridiculous given Zach's skill set, young age, reputation for hard work, performance last season and trajectory of improvement over the past two seasons. Let's break it down a bit.

Last season, Zach averaged 14 points in 28 MPG, shooting 45.2% from the field and 38.9% from behind the arc. Compare those numbers to other starting shooting guards around the NBA. Note that, after the all-star break when he became the Wolves full-time starter at SG, he averaged 16.4 points in 35 MPG, shooting 48% from the field and 43.7% from behind the arc with 1.2 steals and only 2 turnovers per game. Those aren't just good numbers for a 21-year old in his second season after one year of college. Those are terrific numbers for a starting SG of any vintage in the League. Keep in mind also that the Wolves, with Zach as their starting SG post-all-star break, played nearly .500 ball, beating Portland and Golden State on the road. And of course we're all aware of Zach's incredible hops and tremendous speed with the ball. Those of us who watched consistently last season should have also noticed that Zach's defense, his biggest weakness, improved significantly. Then you have Zach's upward trajectory -- his numbers improving from his first season to his second and again over the course of last season. I guess that shouldn't be surprising given Zach's reputation as a gym rat constantly working on his game -- the sort of player who typically ends up getting the most out of his talents over time.

Note further that Zach accomplished all of the above under a head coach who no team seems interested in hiring whereas next season Zach will be playing under one of the elite head coaches in the League. Zach's basketball IQ has been unfairly criticized in my view, but for those who remain really concerned about that, note that Thibs helped turn a player with a negative basketball IQ named Derrick Rose into an all-star.

All this is not to say that it's silly to see Zach as more of a 6th man. But it is beyond ridiculous to summarily dismiss his potential as a starter as the pundits do. Zach clearly has all-star potential, but teamed as a starter with two likely future all-stars in KAT and Wiggins he doesn't even have to be an all-star caliber player to be highly effective. Keep in mind that a lot of championship contenders don't have all-star caliber players as their starting SGs and few have more than 2 all-star caliber players in their starting lineups.

Very good post. Is that engleman, guy the same guy who wrote that jokic was the ROY? His commentary on zach was hilarious, Zach dunking is not even a huge strength of his, yes he is an all time great slam dunk contest dunker, but it is not like he is dunking in half court sets. Calling him Javel is such an insult and another reason why I hate RPM. Also would love to see his RPM after he was done playing pg. (Not that I would put much stock in it)

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

I actually don't think Zach is best fit to come off the bench. His best numbers have always come next to Ricky because he's most effective as a spot up shooter and secondary ball handler. He's not in the mold of a Harden or Ginobili where he's most effective with the ball in his hands scoring and making plays for others. Also when talking about his defense it has to be considered that he's young and still a twig. His body isn't developed enough yet to be a good defender, but the effort and quickness are there. If he puts on 15 more lbs to the point where he can hold his position, look out because he has the speed to stay in front of anyone.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Lip, good post above. I share your enthusiasm for Zach, and agree that his performance at SG was a major reason for this team's improvement toward the end of the year. But I lean more toward the opinion of the pundits above regarding Zach's best role. Many of their comments are really quite positive about Zach. One of them actually mentions Zach as a potential 6th Man of the Year award winner. That's pretty exciting, because teams that have a player that wins this award often contend for championships.

If the Wolves keep starting Wig and Zach at the wing positions, I think they still make the playoffs next year. But the pundits were asked if the current starting lineup is likely to be the Wolves' playoff lineup, and I would have answered "no" also...and it has as much to do with Wig at the 3 as Zach at the 2. Thibs is a defense/rebounding kind of guy, and he is not going to be satisfied with Wig providing 3.6 rebounds per game at the SF position. Wig ranked 363rd in rebounds per 36 among all NBA players, and while that is marginally acceptable for a SG, it doesn't cut it for a starting SF on a good team. Plus, Wig has proven to be a more dominant defender at the 2 than at the 3. As Wig develops physically, he likely will become a very good NBA SF, but I think Thibs is going to want to play him more at the 2 until then.

Here's what you have to ask yourself: What is a better pair of starting wings next year...Wig/Zach, or Deng/Wig? I think anyone would say the latter, especially if it means you get Zach's offense off the bench. I think a Deng acquisition and Zach to 6th man is what Thorpe has in mind when he says the Wolves can win 55 games next year.