Doing what elite teams do

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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
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Doing what elite teams do

Post by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564] »

That's what the Wolves did against Detroit and Philly the last two nights. Two nights ago, we looked like a legitimate elite team blowing out an average Pistons' team on their home court. And we also looked like an elite team coming out flat and disinterested against a woeful Philly team last night, falling behind by 19, and then doing what we had to do to win pulling away in the 4th quarter. As I watched them last night, I reflected on how many times over the past 10 years we have been the woeful team that elite teams toyed with...letting us jump out to a sizable lead before getting serious and beating us in the 4th. Just 11 days ago, for instance, a superior OKC came out flat against us and allowed us to lead by double digits early, only to buckle down and blow us out in the 4th.

We're not an elite team yet, and we can't afford to regularly overlook weaker opponents, but we are on the cusp of being elite. And we showed that the past two nights. Despite an impossibly difficult early season schedule, our positive point differential of 4.1 trails only teams that everyone would agree are elite teams, and is a full point better than Golden State. And after we finish a very easy January, we should be almost 10 games over .500 and among the league leaders in point differential. We have a lot of games remaining against teams that either aren't very good, or are missing a key player (Golden State, Chicago, New Orleans, Memphis) and 50 wins remains a reasonable goal. There was a lot of hand wringing after a very poor showing against the Heat Saturday, but it was merely a loss to the World Champions with our best player not playing. And the hand wringing may return tomorrow as we face a Spurs team that does something very well that we don't defend very well...shoot threes. But there is no question in my mind that this club is going in the right direction. And the last two nights were a strong indicator.
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AbeVigodaLive
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Re: Doing what elite teams do

Post by AbeVigodaLive »

I'd think the Wolves would gladly exchange a couple of blowouts that look good for point differential for the ability to win a couple more close games.
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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
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Re: Doing what elite teams do

Post by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564] »

AbeVigodaLive wrote:I'd think the Wolves would gladly exchange a couple of blowouts that look good for point differential for the ability to win a couple more close games.

Fair point, Abe, as they still haven't won a game by less than four points. I thought last night was going to be the first one, but Philly wouldn't oblige. Winning close games is all about leadership, and I agree that the Wolves haven't demonstrated that they have that guy yet. There are candidates, but until a clear closer (or two) emerges, the Wolves will not be an elite team.
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Camden [enjin:6601484]
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Re: Doing what elite teams do

Post by Camden [enjin:6601484] »

Love said of Rubio: "He's our leader. He's our general."

I think that's what we all thought. I've been seeing lots of leadership qualities in Love this year, but Rubio's still the primary leader. You can see how bad he wants to win and he is the difference maker. I'd be willing to bet whenever he has 12 points or more, we win the majority of the time. I can't back that up with numbers, but that's how I feel.
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longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]
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Re: Doing what elite teams do

Post by longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564] »

Camden wrote:Love said of Rubio: "He's our leader. He's our general."

I think that's what we all thought. I've been seeing lots of leadership qualities in Love this year, but Rubio's still the primary leader. You can see how bad he wants to win and he is the difference maker. I'd be willing to bet whenever he has 12 points or more, we win the majority of the time. I can't back that up with numbers, but that's how I feel.

I agree that he's a candidate for leader, but I don't think he's the guy we can turn to yet to score when the game is on the line. I remember his clutch 3-pointer against the Clippers to tie the game that Love eventually won two years ago, but other than that, I'm hard pressed to come up with many examples where he has won last second games for us. Love and Martin are great scorers, and I love their ability to draw fouls, but sometimes that foul call isn't made in the closing seconds...especially on another team's court...and that limits their effectiveness at game end. I think we still need a true closer to emerge. You think Glen Perkins has any game?
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ace [enjin:6598567]
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Re: Doing what elite teams do

Post by ace [enjin:6598567] »

Camden wrote:I'd be willing to bet whenever he has 12 points or more, we win the majority of the time. I can't back that up with numbers, but that's how I feel.


Off-hand, I would have agreed with you pretty strongly. I went and looked at the numbers, though. Ricky has scored 12+ points in 55 of his 120 career games. The Wolves are 27-28 in those games. Perhaps Ricky's scoring doesn't have as much of an effect on the team as we all think.
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Camden [enjin:6601484]
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Re: Doing what elite teams do

Post by Camden [enjin:6601484] »

ace wrote:
Camden wrote:I'd be willing to bet whenever he has 12 points or more, we win the majority of the time. I can't back that up with numbers, but that's how I feel.


Off-hand, I would have agreed with you pretty strongly. I went and looked at the numbers, though. Ricky has scored 12+ points in 55 of his 120 career games. The Wolves are 27-28 in those games. Perhaps Ricky's scoring doesn't have as much of an effect on the team as we all think.


WOW! That's really interesting. I wonder how many of those come from the second half of last season. Either way, great stat check ace.
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ace [enjin:6598567]
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Re: Doing what elite teams do

Post by ace [enjin:6598567] »

Camden wrote:
ace wrote:
Camden wrote:I'd be willing to bet whenever he has 12 points or more, we win the majority of the time. I can't back that up with numbers, but that's how I feel.


Off-hand, I would have agreed with you pretty strongly. I went and looked at the numbers, though. Ricky has scored 12+ points in 55 of his 120 career games. The Wolves are 27-28 in those games. Perhaps Ricky's scoring doesn't have as much of an effect on the team as we all think.


WOW! That's really interesting. I wonder how many of those come from the second half of last season. Either way, great stat check ace.


28. They were 10-18. So I guess you could look at it as the Wolves being 17-10 when Love plays and Ricky has 12 or more points.
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markkbu [enjin:6588958]
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Re: Doing what elite teams do

Post by markkbu [enjin:6588958] »

ace wrote:
Camden wrote:
ace wrote:
Camden wrote:I'd be willing to bet whenever he has 12 points or more, we win the majority of the time. I can't back that up with numbers, but that's how I feel.


Off-hand, I would have agreed with you pretty strongly. I went and looked at the numbers, though. Ricky has scored 12+ points in 55 of his 120 career games. The Wolves are 27-28 in those games. Perhaps Ricky's scoring doesn't have as much of an effect on the team as we all think.


WOW! That's really interesting. I wonder how many of those come from the second half of last season. Either way, great stat check ace.


28. They were 10-18. So I guess you could look at it as the Wolves being 17-10 when Love plays and Ricky has 12 or more points.


Cams point is probably that we will win a disproportionate number of games when Rubio scores 12 points or more.

if we are right at a .500 winning percentage when Ricky scores 12 points, then we are probably close to a .300 winning percentage when he doesn't
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ace [enjin:6598567]
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Re: Doing what elite teams do

Post by ace [enjin:6598567] »

markkbu wrote:
Cams point is probably that we will win a disproportionate number of games when Rubio scores 12 points or more.

if we are right at a .500 winning percentage when Ricky scores 12 points, then we are probably close to a .300 winning percentage when he doesn't


I realize what his point was, I was just giving out numbers to his statements.

Wolves are 23-42 when Ricky scores 11 or fewer. I think I need to make a winning percentage graph based on Ricky's scoring.
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