eFG% differential - the root cause of our ills

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Before the season began, I observed that our roster was made up in a way that we would win the battle on most nights in three key areas:

1. Positive turnover differential
2. Positive free throw differential
3. Positive rebounding differential

#1 and #2 have happened in a big way. We have created 55 more turnovers than we've given up. And we have taken 166 more free throws than our opponent. That is great news and there is no reason to believe that these areas won't continue to be an area of strength.

Rebounding hasn't been quite as much of a strength, but we are still good. We are 15th in defensive rebounding % and 6th in offensive rebounding %. Combine this with the turnover differential and it explains why we have taken 60 more shots than our opponents.

So, to summarize, the core strength of this team is that we take more shots and a lot more free throws than our opponent. Excellent.

Because of our advantage in FGAs and FTAs, all we have to be is average in our ability to make shots and prevent made shots in order to put together a strong, winning season. That's where things haven't worked out.

Our eFG% - 47% (22nd in the NBA)
Opponent eFG% - 52% (23rd in the NBA)

That's a 5% point difference. As long as we have Pek, Love, and Cunningham as our primary "bigs", we aren't going to close this gap entirely on the defensive side of the equation. But I do think the addition of Mbah Moute and ultimately more Turiaf/Dieng will help the cause.

The real issue is on offense. We ended last season with a 47% eFG, which is exactly where we are at this season. WTF!? So after having a healthy Love, Pekovic, Rubio, and adding Kevin Martin into the mix, we are no better off in terms of making shots than we were last year! Uggggggh!

If we can close that eFG% gap and simply draw even, I can almost guarantee that we will end up at least 5 games above .500 because of our other strengths. Easier said than done....

[mjs34]

What s

Before the season began, I observed that our roster was made up in a way that we would win the battle on most nights in three key areas:

1. Positive turnover differential
2. Positive free throw differential
3. Positive rebounding differential

#1 and #2 have happened in a big way. We have created 55 more turnovers than we've given up. And we have taken 166 more free throws than our opponent. That is great news and there is no reason to believe that these areas won't continue to be an area of strength.

Rebounding hasn't been quite as much of a strength, but we are still good. We are 15th in defensive rebounding % and 6th in offensive rebounding %. Combine this with the turnover differential and it explains why we have taken 60 more shots than our opponents.

So, to summarize, the core strength of this team is that we take more shots and a lot more free throws than our opponent. Excellent.

Because of our advantage in FGAs and FTAs, all we have to be is average in our ability to make shots and prevent made shots in order to put together a strong, winning season. That's where things haven't worked out.

Our eFG% - 47% (22nd in the NBA)
Opponent eFG% - 52% (23rd in the NBA)

That's a 5% point difference. As long as we have Pek, Love, and Cunningham as our primary "bigs", we aren't going to close this gap entirely on the defensive side of the equation. But I do think the addition of Mbah Moute and ultimately more Turiaf/Dieng will help the cause.

The real issue is on offense. We ended last season with a 47% eFG, which is exactly where we are at this season. WTF!? So after having a healthy Love, Pekovic, Rubio, and adding Kevin Martin into the mix, we are no better off in terms of making shots than we were last year! Uggggggh!

If we can close that eFG% gap and simply draw even, I can almost guarantee that we will end up at least 5 games above .500 because of our other strengths. Easier said than done....

What scares me about your last statement is that this team needs to be at least 10 games above .500 if they are to have any chance at contending in the near future.

[JasonIsDaMan [enjin:7981157]]

Is there a website that is tracking that stat, and then breaking it down between starters and reserves?

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Is there a website that is tracking that stat, and then breaking it down between starters and reserves?

Was going to ask this as well. What's our starters eFG% and then what's our bench's eFG%? I have a feeling the starters are above average whereas the bench is horrendous and brings the % down.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Is there a website that is tracking that stat, and then breaking it down between starters and reserves?

I'm not sure what website Q uses to get this information, but it's available in the team stats at espn.com in the "shooting statistics" section (they call it AFG%, which I believe is the same thing). Q is right that 47% is not going to cut it for the Wolves. But I attribute much of the poor shooting to our brutal early season schedule. This is borne out by accessing the splits section of the shooting statistics, and looking at players' individual shooting stats with 0, 1 and 2 days rest. The results are remarkable in showing how much worse our guys shoot with no rest, and since almost a third of our games so far this season have been the back end of BTBs, I expect our AFG% to improve significantly as our schedule improves. Here are the AFG% for the seven Wolves who shoot the most, broken out by days of rest.


No rest 1 day 2 days
Love 43% 53% 55%
Martin 50 52 42
Pek 56 49 65
Brewer 44 54 56
Rubio 34 44 47
Barea 32 52 57
Dante 50 39 64


The split results for Rubio, Brewer and Barea were extraordinary, and can be explained by how much more they have to work on defense chasing their opponent around. Rubio and Brewer both drop 10 percentage points comparing 1 day rest to no rest, and Barea drops an amazing 20 percentage points. Love also drops 10 percentage points.

6 of the Wolves' first 19 games came with no rest, a brutal schedule to say the least. In comparison, there are only 3 no rest games in the next 19 games, and only 6 in the next 30. If the Wolves continue to shoot well on nights that they have at least 1 day rest, their AFG% should increase dramatically over the next couple months.

[thedoper]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2014.html

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2014.html

Yup, outstanding site. Between this, 82games.com, and the improved NBA.com stats site, I get everything I need.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Is there a website that is tracking that stat, and then breaking it down between starters and reserves?

I'm not sure what website Q uses to get this information, but it's available in the team stats at espn.com in the "shooting statistics" section (they call it AFG%, which I believe is the same thing). Q is right that 47% is not going to cut it for the Wolves. But I attribute much of the poor shooting to our brutal early season schedule. This is borne out by accessing the splits section of the shooting statistics, and looking at players' individual shooting stats with 0, 1 and 2 days rest. The results are remarkable in showing how much worse our guys shoot with no rest, and since almost a third of our games so far this season have been the back end of BTBs, I expect our AFG% to improve significantly as our schedule improves. Here are the AFG% for the seven Wolves who shoot the most, broken out by days of rest.


No rest 1 day 2 days
Love 43% 53% 55%
Martin 50 52 42
Pek 56 49 65
Brewer 44 54 56
Rubio 34 44 47
Barea 32 52 57
Dante 50 39 64


The split results for Rubio, Brewer and Barea were extraordinary, and can be explained by how much more they have to work on defense chasing their opponent around. Rubio and Brewer both drop 10 percentage points comparing 1 day rest to no rest, and Barea drops an amazing 20 percentage points. Love also drops 10 percentage points.

6 of the Wolves' first 19 games came with no rest, a brutal schedule to say the least. In comparison, there are only 3 no rest games in the next 19 games, and only 6 in the next 30. If the Wolves continue to shoot well on nights that they have at least 1 day rest, their AFG% should increase dramatically over the next couple months.

Wow, great analysis LST. These back to backs really do have a material impact on our shooting. Martin seems to be the only one that it hasn't affected so far.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Is there a website that is tracking that stat, and then breaking it down between starters and reserves?

Was going to ask this as well. What's our starters eFG% and then what's our bench's eFG%? I have a feeling the starters are above average whereas the bench is horrendous and brings the % down.

You can easily sort this at the basketball reference site that Doper linked to. Our starters (other than Rubio) are doing just fine. It gets very, very ugly after that.

Barea is the one guy that I'm hoping starts to pick things up. He has a career eFG% that is much better than what he's show this season, so I hope things start to average out for him and he puts together a string of good games.

[Lipoli390]

Love, Brewer, Ricky and Barea clearly perform better the more rest they get. Dante, Pek and Martin all perform better or at least as well on no rest as they do with 1-day's rest. That's four one way and three the other. So it's not crystal clear that the amount of rest between games is a key to the Wolves relatively poor showing so far in the West. Bottom line is that the NBA season is a grind. So even if the Wolves' place near the bottom of the West right now stems from too little rest, we can't take any comfort in that. This team has some fundamental shortcomings that may end up relegating the Wolves to another lottery appearance at season's end.