Expected Improvement

[Lipoli390]

The Wolves finished with 31 wins last season and will need at least 45 wins to make the playoffs next season. Obviously the team needs to improve substantially to get the added 14 + wins. At the end of the day, it's about personnel -- i.e., the players on fhe roster and who among them will give us more this season than we got last season at his position. So here are the specific key players from whom i expect to get the improvements this coming season that should collectively give us the additional 15 wins we'll need for a playoff birth:

1. Kevin Love -- I expect him to go from 18 games in poor physical condition with a bad attitude to at least 72 games in great physical shape with a great, newly invigorated attitude. Most of Kevin's missed games in his NBA career so far have resulted from two broken hands. Now that both have been surgically repaired, they should be stronger than they were originally. By all accounts, Kevin has recommitted himself and will come to camp in the type of great physical condition we saw two seasons ago. And with Kahn gone, Kevin's attitude seems to have done a 180. So I think we should expect to see a nearly full season from the Kevin Love we saw two seasons ago when he was clearly the best PF in the League. The difference between only 18 games from last season's fat, pouting Love versus 70+ games from the best PF in the League is a game changer all by itself.

2. Ricky Rubio -- Ricky missed the first 20% of the season and was never 100% physically all season, which is typical of a player in his first season coming off ACL surgery. Starting next season, over 18 months beyond the date of his surgery, we should expect to see Ricky 100% healthy again. In addition, I fully expect much improved shooting from Ricky. I have no doubt that Ricky has been working extremely hard on his shot this summer and that work has already been apparent in Ricky's international play this summer. A fully healthy and better shooting Ricky for an entire season will translate into more wins all by itself.

3. JJ Barea -- Remember that this guy was a key to the Mav's championship several years ago. He is a terrific player. The problem last season was that he was asked to do too much. But with a healthy Ricky for the entire season and a true starting SG, Barea can return to the less prominent but still critical backup role to which he is best suited. His international play this summer bodes well as a sign of what I expect to be a terrific season from JJ.

4. Kevin Martin -- Last season we had no starting caliber SG. Now, in Kevin Martin, we'll have a top 10 offensive SG starting for the Wolves. Nuff said on this one.

5. Chase Budinger -- He missed most of last season and should be back playing the entire upcoming season. I'm not one to make Chase into more than he really is. He's not a starting caliber wing. But he is a very good three point shooter off the bench who is also a good cutter to the basket off the ball and someone who plays well in Adelman's system.

6. Corey Brewer -- I was not a fan of the Brewer acquisition. His defense is vastly overrated by some fans and his purported corner three point shooting is a mirage as I believe Q pointed out some time ago in another thread. Nevertheless, Corey will often ignite this teams's energy off the bench and regularly disrupt opposing offenses. What he brings should bring the Wolves at least another 2 or 3 wins.

These are the 6 improvements I think we can expect to see this upcoming season. I think it will be enough for a playoff birth. Things could be even better if we get major improvement from Shved, Williams and Pekovic, but I'm not expecting it and would look on major improvement from any of these three as a bonus.

[bleedspeed]

This team will go as far as Rubio, Love, Martin, and Pekovic take it. I actually think Martin will be more important then Pekovic to this team.

[Phenom]

There was an article I saw after we signed Brewer about how he affected pace of play. It showed he was the most integral part of the Nuggets fast pace when he was on the court. I am very excited what he can do with Love outletting and running with Ricky. This team can always use easy baskets and Corey promotes easy baskets. Not only that, when he isn't planted in the corner by the likes of Wittman, he moves well without the ball which bodes well with Ricky. Chase and KMart also move very well off the ball. Flip wanted to compliment our stars this offseason and he did exactly that. I am much more positive about Flip now than I was when he was hired.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Thanks for that summary, Lipoli. For all the reasons you cited I am very optimistic about the offensive potential of this club. Defensively, we will have to see.

I agree with the factors you listed, but I am most excited about Rubio. I know some of you have said he is still young and can become a better shooter, but I have been skeptical. I just didn't think a pass-first PG who has played professionally for so long could suddenly flip the switch. But the videos of him this summer have made me a believer. He hardly looks like the same guy with his improved mid-range jumper. His form is improved, his elevation is much better, and it's going in at a much higher percentage. If he can continue to hit that shot, it makes him so much more dangerous because defenders won't be able to sag off of him anymore.

I don't know if you were ranking the positive factors in order of importance, Lip, but I would definitely have Martin as my third most important factor. His ability to move without the ball and hit the three at a 40+% rate really helps this offense. I hear your point about JJ being more effective in strictly a backup PG role, but I would argue that JJ is JJ, and that he already made some solid contributions last year. As maddening as he can be sometimes, he probably won 4-5 games for us last year.

Can't wait to see the boys back to back at Staples in November!

[Lipoli390]

Long -- I was listing in order of importance as you suggested. But after reading your post I agree that Martin should be number 3 ahead of JJ. But I still see JJ being an even better and a more efficient contributor this coming season.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I think it'd be ridiculous to not expect Derrick Williams to improve. He's done it every year. Third year players usually take a step up--sometimes a huge step up. He's got his body looking right and he's got a better supporting cast to create a little more room for him to drive in. I might be the only one, but I expect D-Will to be a significantly better player this year.

[BizarroJerry [enjin:6592520]]

I dont think people should expect much of an improvement in Pek's offensive game. It's still gonna be tough to watch him create a shot, best bet is to hang around the bucket and bull through for an offensive rebound and foul.

I do think people should expect a good year from Bud. He's a freak athlete with a good shot.

[KiwiMatt]

Good post Lip. Summed it up pretty well.

The two keys to the season will be health and defense. If we can remain relatively healthy and play sufficient defense then we are a playoff team.

[thedoper]

And Bobby Jackson as the new assistant coach. I love that Adelman had to tell him to take it easy on the guys during their pre-camp workouts.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Good breakdown Lip. I think we just need to stay reasonably healthy to make a run at a 5-8 seed in the playoffs. Love, Pekovic, and Martin are three of the most efficient scorers in the NBA. Those three should be using 2/3rds of our team possessions. That alone will make us a top 10 offense. Any further improvement from the likes of Rubio, Williams or Shved would just be gravy and potentially help us compete for a seed in the upper end of that range. I don't see either of our rookies, Dieng and Shabazz, making much of an impact this season.