Watch out for that cliff...!

[AbeVigodaLive]

Sacramento traveling across the country. Playing the second night of a back-to-back. (Remember when many thought that was the Wolves problem?). The Wolves at home. With 2 days rest.

The bench was healthy. (Remember when some thought that was the problem?). And fairly productive. (Remember when that was the problem?) And the Wolves still lost.

I said it recently on this board. I said it last season after the Wolves started strong, but then faded with a depleted lineup... Often, the dam breaks. Add up all the close losses and "bad" losses and it has a toll on a team. I think the Wolves are on the precipice now. (sorry for the mixed metaphors)

Things could get ugly. Remember, the Wolves have been healthier than most other teams. And they are still average. I don't see a playoff berth. The Wolves are closer to Sacramento and LAL than they are the playoffs. That's the sad truth. The sample size is large enough. The writing is on the wall.

Sadly. It's going to get worse. A lot worse. The rumors will start in earnest. And they will be justified. As noted in Lip's or Misty's thread, apathy is setting in. And that will get worse too. The real problem is that the Wolves just aren't good enough.

Welcome to the 25th Season of Timberwolves basketball!

[60WinTim]

Unfortunately, I agree, Abe. The Wolves are not only on the precipice, but leaning towards the wrong side! And it's tough to find any sense they might turn the tide.

You mentioned earlier how important this 4-game stretch was going to be. There are 3 more games, but Mr. OpTIMistic is worried... :(

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Now that I have recovered about from the whiplash caused by your mixed metaphors, I have to say that I agree that things are going to get a lot worse. I have been an unabashed optimist about this club, but that all changed when I recognized that this club just doesn't enjoy playing together. Determine for yourself why this is true (I, of course, still believe it has a lot to do with Love's big mouth), but it's clear the joy has gone out of this team. You see it mostly in Rubio and Martin. For most of his professional career, Ricky has been a fun player to watch...playing with boundless energy and joy, and inspiring his teammates with his style and unspoken leadership. Now, he looks like a guy just doing his job, and nothing more. As Cool pointed out, he has lost his flair for the creative pass, and with the way he shoots, a non-creative, spontaneous Rubio is a bottom quartile point guard. And I hardly recognize Kevin Martin. At the start of the year, he looked like a kid out on the court...a deadly shooting kid, at that. He had young legs, asked for the ball, and talked to the media in an optimistic way. Now, based on his demeanor on and off the court, you would think that his best friend just died. We all know Martin's defensive deficiencies, and if he's choosing not to "bring it" on the offensive side, he becomes a big liability.

Love continues to give 100% every night. He was clearly in pain last night, but showed what a warrior he is by continuing to be our best player even though injured. Truly inspirational, but not enough. I am so conflicted about Kevin. I am in awe of his basketball skills and effort, but still see him as a major factor in the ennui that has befallen this team. I don't think players like playing with Kevin, when they don't know if he will have their back after the game.

The fact is that the talent level team to team in the NBA just isn't that different. So much of success in this league is determined by attitude and how hard you play. Look at last night's Heat/Wizards game. Miami is definitely the more talented team, but the talent gap isn't significant enough to compensate for a flat night. Washington came out smoking against a flat team, and ended up blowing the Heat out. Derrick Williams is another great example. There's no question he has more talent than 75% of the players in this league, but he doesn't have what it takes to play his A game every night. He has the talent to occasionally put up numbers like last night, but it's just a tease...he is what he is. In a way Derrick Williams is the Minnesota Timberwolves in a way...loads of talent, but unable to consistently display it.

The poor attitude this team is showing is going to send them over the cliff. I think we will be 1-3 against Sac-town, Toronto and Utah squared, and that is embarrassing. In another thread I made lineup suggestions, and there's just no downside to making sweeping changes now. What we are doing now just isn't working, so let's see what else we have on this roster.

Your move, Adelman.

[Coolbreeze44]

Excellent post LST

[KiwiMatt]

Problems with this franchise:

1. Kahn's inability to draft during his reign, the coaching staff's inability to develop and Adelman's inability to play rookies/young talent. This has seriously stagnated this franchise and I'm afraid we've peaked as a 10th seed team in the West.

2. No one on this roster is capable of consistently making game winning shots. 0 - 11 in games decided by 4 or less points. That in itself tells me two things: We have no clutch shooters on this squad; and Adelman's playbook is redundant in todays game.

3. Defense. We can't stop anyone. Worse opposition FG% in the league I believe. Doesn't help when you have two matador front court defenders in Love and Pek starting.

[horatio81 [enjin:7751176]]

I think saying "the talent team to team isn't that different" is a little disingenuous. Look at the good teams in this league. Multiple ball handlers (who can score) on court at all times. 3+ shooters on court most of the time. Rim protector most of the time. A plethora of two way players.

The wolves have two offensively talented front court players who also fail to check some rather crucial defensive boxes as a unit. They have one wing shooter, no shut-down wing defenders, zero iso players.

Next to a team like golden state, how exactly are we "talented"? They have Love-lite at pf, a legit rim protector at c, an elite wing defender AND offensive threat at sf, a sniper at sg, and a first tier combination scorer/playmaker at pg. Objectively better than us at three positions, a push at c, and a moderate downgrade at pf.

One thing people rarely account for: opportunity cost at each position. Is pek good? Of course. But look around the league and recognize that good teams are using the center position for defense, not scoring. Does Rubio do some things well? For sure. But are those things effective substitutes for what most good teams are getting out of the pg position?

Edit: to add, I think Love is the best player on only a very specific championship team. I think he needs to be grouped with an athletic rim protector, an elite wing defender, and a solid, balanced scorer/facilitator at pg. If you upgraded David lee to Kevin love and downgraded Steph curry to Ty Lawson, I think you have a contender with love as best player.

The wolves, unfortunately, are literally three (and arguably four) expensive players away from that group, which means we have a far better chance for longterm success if we blow it up now, trade love, and hope to draft one of those transformational wings in an upcoming lottery. They are far easier to build around.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I agree with practically everything you said, horatio, except Bogut and Pekovic is not a push. That matchup is heavily in Pek's favor. Protecting the rim is a great tool, but Bogut can't score 20 a night. Pek's an All-Star caliber center; Bogut's a starting player with a role to play.

[horatio81 [enjin:7751176]]

Viewing Pek as head-and-shoulders above Bogut really doesn't take into account opportunity cost by position. Scoring and rim protection are not equivalent values because you can realistically generate the former from any position on the floor while the latter very typically comes from primarily one place. If you're not getting 20 points a night from your center, those touches/shots are going to other positions on the floor. If you're not getting rim protection from your center, you basically have none.

Consider Golden State, where Bogut isn't as efficient a scorer as Pek but also takes fewer than half as many shots per game. Those shots are filtered through a decidedly more efficient trio of wing players. Meanwhile, Bogut anchors the defense in a way Pek simply can't. If you replaced Pek with a defense-first, rim protecting big and replaced Corey Brewer with a legitimate scoring wing to absorb Pek's touches/shots, we'd be (at worst) a point or two worse in offensive efficiency and several points better on defense.

I think Pek is a very effective offensive center, and I think he'd pair extremely well with an athletic, floor-stretching big (think Garnett in his prime). Such a player is also fairly rare and valuable, which rather limits Pek's "good fits" in this league. There's a reason why the majority of good teams utilize the center position almost exclusively as a defensive anchor/rim protector - it's simply the only place on the floor you can obtain those all-important features of a contending team. You obviously love to get bonus offensive production from your center, but it's far easier (and less expensive) to get your points from practically anywhere else on the floor.

[60WinTim]

This seems like a weird thing to say, especially for me. But I have this feeling that any chance for a successful season rides on tonight's game...

[markkbu [enjin:6588958]]

This seems like a weird thing to say, especially for me. But I have this feeling that any chance for a successful season rides on tonight's game...

yep....tonight's game make me think of the phrase "necessary but not sufficient"