Dallas. And Phoenix.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Dallas is 19 - 13. On pace for about 50 wins.

We shouldn't be that surprised. We should be surprised if they falter the next couple of months. Sans injury, I don't think that happens.

Last year was the first time they missed the playoffs or weren't easily above .500 in more than a decade. I know every year brings a different team. But, there is stability there. Dallas has a way of doing things. A way of surrounding its star with talent that has worked. Year in... year out.

Last year, Nowitzki missed 29 games. And he wasn't the same when he returned. The team relied heavily on OJ Mayo. And yet, they still won 41 games. This year's team is more talented. And simply better. They have a lot of pro's pro type of piece parts on that team. The Mavs may not be elite. But they are legit. And it's going to be tough for the Wolves to catch them.

Since I think the top 6 teams are a notch above the Wolves (OKC, SA, LAC, Por, Hou, GSW) and already have sizeable leads over them... I don't think that it's very reasonable to think the Wolves can catch any of them, unless a key injury hits one of them.

That leaves Phoenix. I have no fucking idea what's going on with Phoenix. I do know, however, that Robert Sarver is legendarily cheap. And that the team planned on tanking (see Gortat trade). Hornacek and those wonderful guards and even Gerald Green had other plans.

So, who wins out in the end? The Suns could hold on to that #8 seed. But that wasn't the plan and it's a limited ceiling. They'd be 1st round fodder. The fans wouldn't even be upset if they missed out. It's all bonus stuff right now.

Don't discount a tank job in Phoenix just yet. Although every Suns win is one closer to forcing Sarver's hand to play for this season.

So, basically, all this rambling comes down to this:

- Hope the surprising Suns crash to earth.
- Hope they tank

Because unless somebody else gets nailed with injuries, that's looking like the Wolves best bets.

[Hicks123 [enjin:6700838]]

The problem with the Suns scenerio is that while they obviously intended to have a rough season, they also have the most assets to make a big trade splash with a team looking to move a high-priced star. They have potentially 4 draft picks in what is considered to be the best draft in quite some time. They also have some solid young pieces, a large expiring (Okafor) and cap space.

So while they could certainly ride the season out, and in the end miss the playoffs, they are probably just as likely to add a big guy (Gasol type perhaps) and make a playoff push earlier than anticipated.

[AbeVigodaLive]

The problem with the Suns scenerio is that while they obviously intended to have a rough season, they also have the most assets to make a big trade splash with a team looking to move a high-priced star. They have potentially 4 draft picks in what is considered to be the best draft in quite some time. They also have some solid young pieces, a large expiring (Okafor) and cap space.

So while they could certainly ride the season out, and in the end miss the playoffs, they are probably just as likely to add a big guy (Gasol type perhaps) and make a playoff push earlier than anticipated.

Yeah. Good point. oh oh...



[Note: The one thing we can count on is Sarver will almost surely choose whichever option lines his own pockets... saves him money.]

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Had to laugh at your description of the Suns situation, Abe...reminded me of the plot of the movie Major League where the owner wants to tank the season but the players won't let it happen.

I pretty much agree with your analysis, that it's going to be tough to catch most of the teams ahead of us. I had some hopes that Golden State was going to fold when Iggy went down, but since he has been back, they are the hottest team in the league. So I think you nailed it...we gotta pass Phoenix or Dallas, or both, to earn a spot in the playoffs (for some of our younger readers who have only followed the Wolves for the past several seasons, the "playoffs" are a series of games generally played by other teams after the Wolves complete their season).

I continue to believe that the Suns are a mirage. It just doesn't happen that every player on a team has a season dramatically better than any season they have ever had before, and Phoenix is about to come back to earth...maybe it started last night with a bad home loss to Memphis, and continues next week against us.

I am not as positive about Dallas as you are. I don't see Dirk playing at the same level as he used to, and I expect both he and Marion will wear down as the season progresses. And as much as a stat stuffer as he is, Monta Ellis is just not a winner. The Wolves pass them by too.

So right now I see us winning 48 games to get the sixth seed, and drawing the hated Jailblazers in the playoffs. It's gonna be fun.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Had to laugh at your description of the Suns situation, Abe...reminded me of the plot of the movie Major League where the owner wants to tank the season but the players won't let it happen.

I pretty much agree with your analysis, that it's going to be tough to catch most of the teams ahead of us. I had some hopes that Golden State was going to fold when Iggy went down, but since he has been back, they are the hottest team in the league. So I think you nailed it...we gotta pass Phoenix or Dallas, or both, to earn a spot in the playoffs (for some of our younger readers who have only followed the Wolves for the past several seasons, the "playoffs" are a series of games generally played by other teams after the Wolves complete their season).

I continue to believe that the Suns are a mirage. It just doesn't happen that every player on a team has a season dramatically better than any season they have ever had before, and Phoenix is about to come back to earth...maybe it started last night with a bad home loss to Memphis, and continues next week against us.

I am not as positive about Dallas as you are. I don't see Dirk playing at the same level as he used to, and I expect both he and Marion will wear down as the season progresses. And as much as a stat stuffer as he is, Monta Ellis is just not a winner. The Wolves pass them by too.

So right now I see us winning 48 games to get the sixth seed, and drawing the hated Jailblazers in the playoffs. It's gonna be fun.

1. Do you think there's a full-size cardboard cutout of Sarver that ends up with him in a bikini in the Suns locker room?
2. Dig your optimism. Hope it turns out that way. That's probably the best-case scenario for a visit to the 2nd round.
3. Ellis might not be a "winner." But he's been to the playoffs multiple times. And he's not THE guy in Dallas anyway. Nowitzki has a winning pedigree. So does Marion. Even Blair probably learned a thing or two in SA. Comparatively, who do the Wolves have that knows anything about winning? I don't know for sure, but I am pretty certain Kevin Love has the worst career record for an All NBA guy in NBA history.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Ouch, just looked at the schedule and the Suns draw the Bucks and Bulls next. So, my prediction of their immediate demise may be premature. But wouldn't it be nice?

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Good stuff here.

I hadn't really looked that closely at the Phoenix stats, but holy crap, LST is right about literally every guy in the top of their rotation shooting a better % this year vs. their overall career numbers. That is truly amazing in the NBA. Not only are Phoenix's top 7 scorers exceeding their career 2PT%, the are blowing it away in most cases. Take Goran Dragic, who has been around for a few years now. His career 2Pt% is 49.6%, which is very solid. But this year he is shooting 54.3% on 2s! It's a similar story for everyone else.

It's very rare that a coach and a system can dramatically improve an offense this much. My motto has always been that GMs are responsible for building an offense and coaches are responsible for the defense. That's an oversimplification of things, but offense tends to flow more from innate talent whereas defense has a lot to do with schemes, effort, and communication - things that can be coached and emphasized more on a day to day basis. You can't teach a guy to suddenly develop a better touch. Sure, you can put in a system that takes better advantage of people's skill sets, and that's probably what Hornacek has done here. But some of these numbers are bound to come down to earth a bit, especially after these guys have gone around the block once or twice in the league and opposing teams get a better idea on how to defend them.

All of that being said, Dallas and Phoenix both have a lower average margin of victory than the Wolves. It's not like they are blowing teams out on a regular basis. They have simply won more of their close games than we have. A good start to bringing Phoenix back down to earth will be to beat them on our home floor next Wednesday!

[mjs34]

Q, this margin of victory thing is kind of a mirage when it comes to the wolves. I don't know of another team in the league that leaves their starters in the game up 30 points. Adelman has done that on numerous occasions. I think that is one of the reasons we don't have any close wins. Whether it is a good strategy or not is up for debate, but I just think it skews the numbers a bit.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Q, this margin of victory thing is kind of a mirage when it comes to the wolves. I don't know of another team in the league that leaves their starters in the game up 30 points. Adelman has done that on numerous occasions. I think that is one of the reasons we don't have any close wins. Whether it is a good strategy or not is up for debate, but I just think it skews the numbers a bit.

To be fair...

Haven't the Wolves sat the starters most/all of the 4th quarter at least a couple times? And, star players or even starters are usually given a certain amount of time, even in games already decided. A big part of the NBA is about identifying roles and routine and all that.

That's why substitution patterns are like clockwork. The stars want their minutes... and they want their stats. So I don't think it's super common for those guys to sit significantly more often on most NBA teams as the guys do here in those games.

[The Rage Monster [enjin:8010341]]

It's going to be an uphill battle either way, we can't rely on other teams falling off, we just need to win more games. Even if Phoenix falters I'm thinking Memphis will pick it up when Gasol returns. He's missed a bunch of games and they're still only 1.5 games behind us.