Analysis of the schedule ahead

[Mstermisty [enjin:6864008]]

Wolves are 9-10, sitting near the bottom of the brutal Western conference, and the schedule so far hasn't done them any favors. Guess what? The next 10 games don't get any easier:

vs SA (but in actuality more of a road game--what a joke)
vs Miami (they are on fire)
@ Det (winnable)
vs Phil (must win)
@ SA (tough)
@ Mem (tough although they have been injured and played poorly)
@ Bos (very winnable)
vs Port (maybe Portland will have cooled down by this time)
@ LAL (Kobe will be back)
@ LAC (Reddick most likely out, still tough though)

So out of those 10 games we really only have 3 home games, and one of them is Miami. Although I'm hoping for better, I think 5-5 would be a decent mark in these 10. That would put us at 14-15. Not good, not good at all, but then we have these 13 games:

vs Wash
@ Mil
vs Dal
vs NO
vs OKC
@ Phil
vs PHO
vs CHA
@ SA (amazing--we play them once "at home" in Mexico and twice at their gym)
vs Sac
@ Tor
vs Utah
@ Utah

Looking at these 13 games, other than the games at San Antonio and at home vs OKC, we most likely will be favored in every game. I see a real chance to go something like 9-4 here, or maybe even better. And if we went 5-5 in the first 10 game stretch, and 9-4 afterwords, that would give us a roughly mid-season record of 23-19. With half the season to go 23-19 is a record that would have us in position to make a move down the stretch.

The bottom line is now is still the time to keep the faith, hold the fort, get injured players back, keep healthy players healthy, and then make a move when the schedule becomes favorable. So it will be interesting to see how many wins we can get in the next 10 games before the schedule changes in our favor.

And the other bottom line of this thread is I have way too much time on my hands.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Good post. I see us going 6-4 during the next 10. Wins against Det, Phi, Mem, Bos, Por and Lal. If we could steal another somewhere in there (San Antonio? Maybe we get hot from 3) and go 7-3, that would be brilliant. Those of you that are looking at who I picked us to beat, let me break down the two you're probably questioning. Memphis will be without Marc Gasol more than likely. If you don't think that's a big deal, you're wrong. Portland will be playing the second game of a back to back and it's in Target Center. Have to give the Wolves the edge in both games. Obviously the games still have to be played and even though it looks decent on paper, we know how that goes.

Next 10 could be real, real nice. Possibly win all of those except San Antonio. On the other hand, I could see us losing a couple games due to poor shooting or fatigue. I'll look more closely when the time comes.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Good analysis. I think 4-6 is a balanced projection for our next stretch of games, then 10-3 in the next 13. That gets me to the same place as Mstermisty, which is 23-19. That is a very solid record and should be good enough to put is in the 7th or 8th spot. Then it's just a matter of playing .500 ball the rest of the way.

Health is still the big key for this team, as the schedule issues will even out eventually.

[mjs34]

I am curious as to how many of you feel a slightly above .500 record will be enough to convince Love to stay in Minny. My personal thought is that he is leaving unless this team shows that it has a chance at a top 4 seeding. I don't see that as a possibility anymore.

The expectations have clearly dropped significantly as many were predicting 50 wins for this team. I think low 40's is now our upside.

[thedoper]

I am curious as to how many of you feel a slightly above .500 record will be enough to convince Love to stay in Minny. My personal thought is that he is leaving unless this team shows that it has a chance at a top 4 seeding. I don't see that as a possibility anymore.

The expectations have clearly dropped significantly as many were predicting 50 wins for this team. I think low 40's is now our upside.

I think you're right but I am ok with that. Love would be part of the reason that we aren't a top 4 seed, so if that makes him want to leave it's on him. I think with the right moves we can keep on a good trajectory moving forward much like Denver did when they traded Melo.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I am curious as to how many of you feel a slightly above .500 record will be enough to convince Love to stay in Minny. My personal thought is that he is leaving unless this team shows that it has a chance at a top 4 seeding. I don't see that as a possibility anymore.

The expectations have clearly dropped significantly as many were predicting 50 wins for this team. I think low 40's is now our upside.

I think you're right but I am ok with that. Love would be part of the reason that we aren't a top 4 seed, so if that makes him want to leave it's on him. I think with the right moves we can keep on a good trajectory moving forward much like Denver did when they traded Melo.

To be fair, doesn't NBA history tell us that the team losing the star player almost always does worse after he leaves?

We can all choose the "Promise of Hope" again if it happens. We can study college players. Cheer losses. Search for glimmers of hope in overmatched on-court talent. But, are we really THAT patient to go through that. AGAIN?

[thedoper]

I am curious as to how many of you feel a slightly above .500 record will be enough to convince Love to stay in Minny. My personal thought is that he is leaving unless this team shows that it has a chance at a top 4 seeding. I don't see that as a possibility anymore.

The expectations have clearly dropped significantly as many were predicting 50 wins for this team. I think low 40's is now our upside.

I think you're right but I am ok with that. Love would be part of the reason that we aren't a top 4 seed, so if that makes him want to leave it's on him. I think with the right moves we can keep on a good trajectory moving forward much like Denver did when they traded Melo.

To be fair, doesn't NBA history tell us that the team losing the star player almost always does worse after he leaves?

We can all choose the "Promise of Hope" again if it happens. We can study college players. Cheer losses. Search for glimmers of hope in overmatched on-court talent. But, are we really THAT patient to go through that. AGAIN?

Aren't we still going through that (apart from the cheering for losses ;)? I understand your frustration with this franchise and the prospect of another "rebuild" but realistically what are we going to do if our ceiling is a 3 seed in the west? I want Love to stay long term and would be very happy if I was proven wrong, but there is not a championship makeup on this team as it stands. As you point out It is not the norm, but Denver didn't really take a step back after losing Melo. I think what Love and Melo bring a very similar to their respective teams. It is clear with both players that they are talented stars, yet somehow that has not translated to winning in the NBA. But what can we really do? Stars that make teams winners are dominant on both sides of the ball. Love does many things well but will not ever be the go to guy to lead a team to a championship. Rubio hasn't really shown he is going to be that guy either. If we can't sign Lebron, how is this team going to become a contender? I think that a 3 seed may be the peak of this roster after a career together. Why should we expect that Love will stay if that is the case?

[AbeVigodaLive]

I don't expect Love to stay. Not for a team that will struggle just to make it as a #8 seed.

Plus, the team will be facing a draft without picks. Where will the improvement come from? The Wolves might be stuck. It would make sense (from a long-term standpoint) to pull a Utah move and trade Love for optimal value when they are still in control of the process.

The moment Love expresses his frustration with the situation, the Wolves are cooked. They will not (and cannot) get optimal value for him at that point.

But, again... we're talking about the 2nd worst franchise in the NBA. The fans have been through many rebuilds already. Apathy is facing the team in the face.

Consider: The team everybody has been waiting for... one with a real shot at the playoffs... one that plays at an exciting fast pace and scores... has seen its attendance drop by about 1,000 fans.

We're looking at 9,500 in the arena and Target handing out free tickets at the checkout lane again if it's another "promise of hope" campaign.

[TAFKASP]

I don't expect Love to stay. Not for a team that will struggle just to make it as a #8 seed.

Plus, the team will be facing a draft without picks. Where will the improvement come from? The Wolves might be stuck. It would make sense (from a long-term standpoint) to pull a Utah move and trade Love for optimal value when they are still in control of the process.

The moment Love expresses his frustration with the situation, the Wolves are cooked. They will not (and cannot) get optimal value for him at that point.

You'll never get dollar for dollar trading a star, but let's not pretend the market for Love will not be a large one. Whenever they trade Love, assuming they do, they will get a nice return.

But, again... we're talking about the 2nd worst franchise in the NBA. The fans have been through many rebuilds already. Apathy is facing the team in the face.

Consider: The team everybody has been waiting for... one with a real shot at the playoffs... one that plays at an exciting fast pace and scores... has seen its attendance drop by about 1,000 fans.

We're looking at 9,500 in the arena and Target handing out free tickets at the checkout lane again if it's another "promise of hope" campaign.

What are ya gonna do, watch the Vikings, Wild, or Twins? LOL Such is the Minnesota sports fans life!

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I am curious as to how many of you feel a slightly above .500 record will be enough to convince Love to stay in Minny. My personal thought is that he is leaving unless this team shows that it has a chance at a top 4 seeding. I don't see that as a possibility anymore.

The expectations have clearly dropped significantly as many were predicting 50 wins for this team. I think low 40's is now our upside.

Tough to see us snagging a Top 4 seed this season, but I don't think even Kevin Love thinks to himself "Man, top 4 seed this year or I'm OUT!". I think simply making the playoffs is a huge leap forward for a team that hasn't been there in nearly a decade.

Our starting lineup is among the most productive in the NBA in terms of overall +/- numbers. What's absolutely killing us is a bench that can't shoot straight, can't get to the free throw line, and can't generate enough turnovers to get easy buckets. The dropoff in offensive efficiency from our starting unit to the bench is astonishing. I may write a whole other post to demonstrate the unbelievable efficiency gap with our bench compared to others, but let's just put it this way. Without Love, Pekovic, Martin, and Brewer, we would be looking at a historically inefficient collection of offensive players wearing the same uniform. Ricky Rubio is actually the 5th most efficient offensive player on our squad right now. Let that sink in for a second.