Some early numbers

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Here is our league ranking in the two most important comprehensive team stats:

Offensive Rating - 13th
Defensive Rating - 6th

It's only six games but a lot of people would look at those two numbers and suggest that I made a mistake and they should be switched. Nope. Here are the component parts:

Offense:
Team eFG% - 26th
TOV % - 7th
OReb% - 18th
FT/FGA - 4th

So we're pretty terrible at shooting the ball, mediocre at offensive rebounding, but very good at keeping our turnovers down and getting to the line a ton. That makes us an average offense. If some of our guys can start knocking down shots closer to their career averages, we should become a top 10 offense. Right now no one is out of their mind hot, except for may be Martin.

Defense:
Opponent eFG% - 19th
Opponent TOV% - 5th
DReb % - 26th
Opponent FT/FGA - 2nd

So we're poor at defensive rebounding, mediocre at defending shots, but very good at creating turnovers and not fouling.

Here is the good news: The stats we're performing well at I don't really see as out of line from what I would expect. Going into this year, I looked at our roster and figured we would be very good at creating turnovers and getting to the line.

Now here is the better news: The stats we're doing poorly in have opportunity to improve. Defensive rebounding and our own eFG% seem like two areas that are not reflective of our roster. While I don't see us being an outstanding shooting team, I do think we can be average. Rubio, Pek, Barea, Williams, Cunningham, and Shved are all below their career averages, and in some cases by a lot. That simply won't continue. Even Love and Brewer are below their career 3-point shooting numbers, although their FG% numbers overall are solid. I just don't see a lot of downside opportunity in our shooting. It should only trend up, albeit only to a certain point.

The key continues to be keeping our "big four" healthy. Pek is not going to shoot sub-40% for the year. Rubio is not going to shoot sub-30% for the year. These guys will improve and our starting lineup will continue to become more and more formidable as these guys get going.

I'm a bit more bullish than I was a couple days ago based on these early numbers and the room for improvement.

[mjs34]

I think the rebounding can be traced to more leaking out on the wings, and thus giving up more offensive rebs. One of the tradeoffs of Brewer getting those easy baskets. I think Petersen touched on that during the game last night, and the importance of making those layups. People don't always factor in the negative side of those plays.

Pek doesn't seem to be getting offensive rebs like he was in the past, and hopefully last night will get him back on track being more aggressive in that regard.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Q, thanks for providing that data. I have been worried that Martin is going to eventually regress to his mean, and he will, but it's clear that there are many more who are going to progress to their mean...and that will have a positive impact on an already potent offense.

Sjm, there's no question that Corey's leaking out has had an impact on our rebounding. But it also has provided a new element of excitement to our offense, and I'm in favor of it continuing. And in all fairness, Corey has never been a good rebounder. I would actually like to see Rubio increase his rebounding stats. He is a good rebounder, often enjoys a height advantage over his man, and isn't likely to be leaking out on the break. We are not likely to have the same kind of rebounding success that we had when AK was at SF, but Ricky can help narrow the gap a little.

[Coolbreeze44]

Funny Q, but I never figured you to be a numbers guy - LOL. But your post reminds me of the old axiom - "Statistics can lie". Aside from the obvious that we're only 6 games in and haven't even played 25% of the league yet.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I think the rebounding can be traced to more leaking out on the wings, and thus giving up more offensive rebs. One of the tradeoffs of Brewer getting those easy baskets. I think Petersen touched on that during the game last night, and the importance of making those layups. People don't always factor in the negative side of those plays.

Pek doesn't seem to be getting offensive rebs like he was in the past, and hopefully last night will get him back on track being more aggressive in that regard.

You are absolutely right sjm. There are some tradeoffs with the Brewer run outs. For now, I think there are more pros than cons, as Brewer is at a career high FG%. He is not an efficient half court player. This is how we can get him some easy looks.

I also agree with LST that Rubio could help. He is a very solid rebounder from the PG position and I think he could do more to help on the defensive rebounds. This will continue to allow Martin and Brewer to focus on getting out on the break.

[Lipoli390]

Great post, Q. Thanks. This help put things in perspective. I also agree with SJ's take on the Brewer fast break factor. In my view the keys to improving our rebounding are (1) Whether Pekovic improves, and (2) whether we can get better rebounding from our second unit -- especially Shved, Williams and Cunningham. A third key will be the return of Turiaf who should give us more rebounds from our second unit.

[Coolbreeze44]

I hate to be Debbie Downer Lip, but this puts nothing into perspective. The sample size is far too small to draw any conclusions. Let's look at these numbers after 25 games.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Funny Q, but I never figured you to be a numbers guy - LOL. But your post reminds me of the old axiom - "Statistics can lie". Aside from the obvious that we're only 6 games in and haven't even played 25% of the league yet.

Then there is another axiom, "Doth mine eyes deceive me?".

Statistics actually help tell us the truth because they are based off of hard facts. I'm trying to figure out why we are 4-2. What are the reasons behind that? And based on what we know of our roster and the players' historical averages, can we then project whether that 4-2 start is flukey or whether it seems in line with what we would expect? And what areas do we think we can reasonably assume some improvement or lack thereof?

Obviously it's a small sample size and I'm not making any definitive conclusions or projections. I just think by peeling back the numbers a bit, it helps us understand how sustainable our performance will be going forward. And I think there is some optimism to be had there.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Great post, Q. Thanks. This help put things in perspective. I also agree with SJ's take on the Brewer fast break factor. In my view the keys to improving our rebounding are (1) Whether Pekovic improves, and (2) whether we can get better rebounding from our second unit -- especially Shved, Williams and Cunningham. A third key will be the return of Turiaf who should give us more rebounds from our second unit.

Lip, I concur that our second unit needs to pick it up on the boards (and in most other aspects too), and that Turiaf's return will be a big help, but I don't agree that Pek is the problem on the boards. I have been critical of Pek's horrible inside touch this year and I also sense he is slightly lazier on defense this year, but his rebounding has been fine. He's averaging 9 a game, up from last year. That's good production next to a PF who pulls down 15 a game.

Last year, I expected us to win the rebounding battle every game, but I don't think we're built that way this year. With Corey in the starting lineup, I'll be happy with just staying even with the other team's starters. But we can't afford moments from our second unit like the one yesterday where Dallas had 4-5 chances on one series.

[KiwiMatt]

Losing Turiaf and Budinger is the equivalent of losing our 6th and probably 9th man in our rotation. Huge loss and explains why we have such a poor rebounding and 3point shooting second unit. The return of those two will instantly help those two categories.

I'm still disapointed that we past on Steven Adams in the draft. His stat line yesterday against Detroit, 17 points (7/10fg, 3/4ft), 10 rebounds (5 offensive), 3 assist, 3 blocks and a steal.... And the kids only 20 years old. Compare that with the production we're getting from Muhammad and Dieng. Wouldn't that be handy coming off the bench!