Rubio's shooting...

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

deserves its own thread that we can revisit periodically as results (hopefully) change. There are so many comments about this topic spread throughout numerous threads, it may be helpful to combine our observations into one thread. After all, many of us see Rubio's ability to shoot as a major key to the Wolves' success this season.

First, let's not ignore the high level Ricky is playing at this year in non-shooting aspects of his game. His assists and steals are up to 8.6 and 3.4 respectively, certainly elite levels, while controlling his turnovers at 3 per game. His on-the-ball defense also looks improved, as demonstrated by his dominance of Curry last night. But his three-point and mid-range shooting has been nothing short of pathetic, and his scoring has dropped to under 10 a game.

Ricky's shooting is puzzling to me, as he has teased us at times with evidence that he finally "gets it". A couple examples:

1) Many of us watched video of Ricky during the summer European tournament, and were amazed at how different his shot looked. He seemed smooth and almost automatic coming off screens and hitting his mid-ranger with a normal arc. But he has regressed back to being Bad Ricky in the first five games of this season. He still looks smooth coming off screens, but his shot has returned to the flat one that made us all grimace in previous years, and it's not going in. I don't blame him (yet) for continuing to try this shot, because of his summer success, but how does a shot regress so badly in 3 months? Don't say defense, because he is as open coming off screens in the NBA as he was in Europe...he's just missing. He needs to return to his summer form and success, or abandon his mid-range game.

2) Ricky has also teased us with 3-point success. Other teams often leave him wide open beyond the arc because of his lack of success, and he made them pay in pre-season with our best 3-point percentage. His set shot beyond the arc isn't pretty to watch, but it was encouraging to see him hit it at a 50% rate in pre-season.
Closed circuit question to Lip, or any others that regularly attend games: How does Ricky look pre-game and at halftime warming up with his 3-point set shot? I understand that halftime is not real life, but defenders are leaving Ricky so open that his 3-point attempts are essentially long free throws. He should be able to replicate in games what he does in practice.

I'm choosing to take an optimistic viewpoint here. Ricky has shown recently that he can shoot, and I'm choosing to look at these first five games, and especially the last two, as an aberration. If he starts hitting the mid-ranger with European success and the wide-open three pointer with pre-season success, it increases his point guard effectiveness dramatically. Defenders can no longer play him loosely, which makes it easier to beat him off the dribble and either get to the basket for layups or dish for easy buckets.

Yes, Pek needs to start making layups, and our bench needs to pick it up, but I think the major key to this year (other than health) is Ricky's shooting. Terrible so far, but I'm not giving up yet.

[KiwiMatt]

Good post LST.

It's hard to see Rubio's shooting ever becoming elite. However he needs to take the Jason Kidd path and find away to score in this league. By the end of his career Kidd become a pretty good 3 point shooter. Hopefully Rubio can do the same.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Nobody in modern NBA history has shot as poorly for as long as Rubio...

So, this thread is a good one.

[khans2k5 [enjin:6608728]]

The problem with Ricky's wide open shots is he thinks about them instead of just shooting them. He doesn't even shoot them like a jump shot. He shoots them like his free throws with barely any leg lift and in poor rhythm (like an NFL quarterback with a hitch). He looks like he is pushing his shots more than shooting them. He might have the worst touch ever. He almost shoots like he thinks a line drive is a better path for the ball to go to the basket in order to go in. I think the problem stems from his hitch in his free throw shooting. He can't do any worse, so why are they not having him try a more fluid shooting motion instead of trying to give him a hitch as an out to make his form more fundamental and take the touch out of the shot. There's never been a good shooter with a hitch in his shot. They all have fluid shots that require touch, so we are just handicapping him by giving him a hitch instead of forcing him to get some touch. Kidd learned how to shoot the ball, so teach Ricky how to shoot and stop teaching him poor fundamentals that take the touch out of the shot just because he doesn't have any yet.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Good post LST.

It's hard to see Rubio's shooting ever becoming elite. However he needs to take the Jason Kidd path and find away to score in this league. By the end of his career Kidd become a pretty good 3 point shooter. Hopefully Rubio can do the same.

I agree, Matt, that Kidd is the best comparison for Rubio, and unfortunately it took him a long time to develop into an adequate shooter. In his first 11 years, he was better than 35% on threes only twice, but he was over 35% 6 out of his last seven years. And like Ricky, his overall shooting percentage was under 40% in his first three years. And yet he is considered an elite point guard, even though his shooting was never elite.

I'm very unhappy with Ricky's shooting this season, but I am still optimistic that he will turn it around, and I don't think it will take him 11 years to get there. He's already a much better free thrower in his first three years (Kidd was under 70% his first three, and later became an excellent free throw shooter), which tells me he has the potential to be a better shooter than Kidd, and to get to shooting adequacy sooner. Combine that with his penchant for assists and steals, and I think we will have a top 3 point guard in less than three years. But he's probably not even in the top 15 now. Only when he becomes at least a top 5 point guard will the Wolves become an elite team.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Abe is right about Rubio. He is truly on pace to be one of the worst shooters to ever play so many minutes. But the paradox is that he's also on pace to be one of the all time greats at steals and assists. His rebounding is also above average for his position. It's the tale of two extremes.

[Lipoli390]

Interesting thread. Honestly, I'm not worried about Ricky's shooting. I don't expect him to become a good shooter, but I remain convinced that he'll eventually get to Jason Kidd's level if not a little better. And even at his worst as a shooter, he's a huge plus in multiple other areas of the game -- defense (both steals and containment), playmaking (tremendous court vision, instincts, passing skills, ballhandling), rebounding for his position.

As for Ricky's shooting, the Jason Kidd comparison is on point. Through two partial seasons, Ricky has hit 35.5% of his FGs, 31.2% of his 3-point attempts and 80.4% of his free throws. He has averaged 4.3 FT attempts. Through his first two FULL seasons, Jason Kidd averaged 38.3% from the field, 30.2% from behind the arc, and 69.5% from the stripe on 3.8 FT attempts per game. So Ricky's stats are on par with Kidd's over the same early period to their respective NBA careers. Jason was slightly better from the field while Ricky has been slightly better from behind the arc and much better from the free throw line in both percentage and attempts. And Jason's first two years were not interrupted by torn ligaments and reconstructive surgery. Ricky's substantially better FT percentage suggests that Ricky will ultimately be a better (more accurate) mid-range shooter than Kidd.

So I'm not worried about Ricky's shooting. I'm far more worried about this team's lack of bench strength, lack of athleticism and lack of anyone above average at putting the ball on the floor and creating his own shot on dribble penetration. Oh, and I'm also more worried about Pek's continuing propensity to miss bunnies in the paint. He's worse so far this season than he's been in the past, but what's troublesome is that he's always had that propensity. And he's nearly 28 years old so it's unlikely he'll get much better. And then there is Pek's tendency to miss games with injuries. Speaking of injuries, I was told yesterday by someone who knows that Budinger will likely be out at least another two months. These are the things we should worry about as Wolves fans.

[KiwiMatt]

I agree with Lip that Rubio's shooting isn't worth worrying about..... yet! It will come around, and he will learn a way to score in this league at a respectable clip. The rest of his play has been exceptional and he really looks like he could lead the league in assists and steals.

The main concerns with this team right now is bench production and Pek's mediocre play. I was really hoping Shved would have a break out season, but looks like the guy has lost all his confidence and is struggling to get it back. With it, it looks like Adelman has lost all confidence in him as well. I still thing Barea is an enigma to this team. When he plays well we win, when he plays bad we lose. Reason being is that he's pretty much the only (healthy) bench player we have who can score. Unfortunately Barea has more bad games than good! Budinger's injury is a massive blow.

[mjs34]

Speaking of injuries, I was told yesterday by someone who knows that Budinger will likely be out at least another two months. These are the things we should worry about as Wolves fans.

Lip, I was thinking about this the other day, and it is reminding of the Malcolm Lee injury. There was very little info on his surgery, and later it came out that he had MF. Removing part of the meniscus is not a structural issue. It is a pain issue, and most are back in a month. The fact that Bud hasn't even been with the team is making me question the severity of the injury. I won't be surprised if we find out that something else was discovered while they were doing the procedure. I am not ruling out MF. If it was just cartilage removal, they would have been more forthcoming on a timeline.

While we could certainly use Chase, I am not on the team of "Bud is a savior". The guy is a borderline starter in this league, and as such would have good and bad games like the rest of our bench players. Keep in mind that he will be less than he was when he comes back. You can recover fully from ACL's, but the lack of cartilage and pain that accompanies it, zaps you of your explosiveness.

[Lipoli390]

While we could certainly use Chase, I am not on the team of "Bud is a savior". The guy is a borderline starter in this league, and as such would have good and bad games like the rest of our bench players. Keep in mind that he will be less than he was when he comes back. You can recover fully from ACL's, but the lack of cartilage and pain that accompanies it, zaps you of your explosiveness.

Great points SJ.

Actually, I think you're being a bit generous referring to Chase as a borderline starter. He has never been more than a bench player in the NBA. That's who he is and, even if completely healthy, there is no evidence that he is starter material on a good team.

I agree that there appears to be something more than we've heard about Chase's injury. And you are right about the likelihood that Chase will not have the same explosiveness.