Rubio's shooting...

[AbeVigodaLive]

A couple notes on the Jason Kidd comparison:

1. Jason Kidd was a lousy shooter. "Pretty good" is a stretch. Even "adequate" seems like it's masking the truth a bit. He's an outlier that turned into a sure-fire HOF player. I think Rubio is an outlier in a lot of ways too. His nose for steals and his passing is top-notch. But HOF worthy? Meh. To make assumptions that Rubio has the ability to turn himself into a HOF-caliber player is a bit much. That's a huge reach.

2. Kidd never became a good three point shooter. In fact, he was markedly above the league AVERAGE for only one 3-year stretch in his entire career... despite becoming a guy who stood around waiting to shoot only wide open 3 pointers.

3. I'll leave comparisons to Kidd for another day. At this point, I'll take Rubio one game at a time, hoping he outplays his opponent. And hope he remains an asset more often than he is a liability.

[Lipoli390]

Abe -- Who expressed the view that Rubio would become a hall-of-famer? The point of the Jason Kidd comparison as I intended it was two-fold: (1) to illustrate that a very poor shooter can improve his shooting after arriving in the NBA, and (2) to illustrate that a PG can be elite based on exceptional playmaking and defensive prowess even if he remains a relatively poor shooter. In other words. If Kidd can be a hall-of-famer with his shooting, then Rubio can surely become a very good, even all-star caliber PG. HOF is a whole other level.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Abe -- Who expressed the view that Rubio would become a hall-of-famer? The point of the Jason Kidd comparison as I intended it was two-fold: (1) to illustrate that a very poor shooter can improve his shooting after arriving in the NBA, and (2) to illustrate that a PG can be elite based on exceptional playmaking and defensive prowess even if he remains a relatively poor shooter. In other words. If Kidd can be a hall-of-famer with his shooting, then Rubio can surely become a very good, even all-star caliber PG. HOF is a whole other level.

Jason Kidd didn't significantly improve his shooting. He got a bit better at 3s... other than that it went up about 1.5%. He was 38.5% as a rookie... 40% for his career.

Add that very basic figure to Rubio's total... and he's still the worst shooting player in the NBA at 37% and would STILL be the worst shooting player (starter) in modern NBA history.

[markkbu [enjin:6588958]]

Jason Kidd didn't significantly improve his shooting.

Abe, you are just blatantly lying here.

A simple look at Kidd's eFG% show a drastic improvement in shooting between Kidd's first 5 years versus his last 5 years.

His eFG% for his first 5 years was below .460% and for his last 5 it was well over .510%.

Come on.

[KiwiMatt]

Nobody in modern NBA history has shot as poorly for as long as Rubio...

So, this thread is a good one.

Sebastian Telfair says hello!

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

The Kidd parallels are right on. I think. Both were child prodigies with a lot of eyeballs on them as teenagers. Both were transformational distributors, and below average shooters. One is going to be in the Hall of Fame, and I'll say it: the other has a chance. I think Ricky will finish with better stats than Kidd in scoring average and steals, will be close to him and maybe better in assists, but will never rebound as well as Kidd (although Ricky is an above average rebounder).

If he learns to make that wide open 3-point set shot AND plays for a champion sometime in his career, I think it is not out of the question to consider HOF for him...his assist and steal stats will be that good. And he has that intangible quality about him that makes him very watchable and popular. Miles to go before he sleeps...he's only 23...but there aren't many other 23 year old NBA players I would rather be.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. STOP WITH THE KIDD COMPARISONS!!! There's simply no logic that says that just because two players are similar in certain ways (steals, passing, and rebounding) that they'll develop the same way in another (shooting).

If you want the best possible guess for Rubio's future shooting trajectory, calculate the average career change in shooting percentage for every PG in the last 20 years. Then apply that to Rubio for a better guess at how he'll develop as a shooter.

In other words, Kidd's improving shot is an outlier. There's no reason to believe that Rubio's similarity to Kidd in passing and defense will lead to him improving his shooting like that. Therefore, stop the Kidd comparisons and make a guess on Ricky's shooting based on the league average--which is almost certainly less impressive than Kidd's. Anybody care to do some math?

[Lipoli390]

Drew -

You are implying a cause and effect I certainly never intended -- i.e., that because they have similar steals and rebounding stats, Ricky's shooting accuracy will follow the same trajectory over time in the NBA.

My main point is that you can be a mediocre to poor shooter and still be an excellent PG if you are an elite playmaker and defender. In that sense, the comparison is on the mark.

However, I also think it is fair to view Kidd's shooting improvement during his NBA career as the possible result of his passing prowess from a very young age, delaying his development as a shooter. That background might have some predictive value for Ricky given his similar history as a virtuoso passer who didn't shoot much growing up with the game. Most players who start their NBA careers as poor shooters likely grew up shooting all the time because that's the nature of youth basketball in the US. So no wonder they don't improve much after they get to the NBA.

I'm a big stat guy, but there are fair insights and conclusions that come from a look behind the stats.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Jason Kidd didn't significantly improve his shooting.

Abe, you are just blatantly lying here.

A simple look at Kidd's eFG% show a drastic improvement in shooting between Kidd's first 5 years versus his last 5 years.

His eFG% for his first 5 years was below .460% and for his last 5 it was well over .510%.

Come on.

Fun with numbers. I posted stats for chrissakes. How is that lying? Here's a thought... let's look at context.

eFG% gives a lot of value to 3 pointers. Which is fine, but sometimes it's misleading. Was Jason Kidd a "better shooter" than Kevin Garnett last season, or the the past few seasons?

Garnett, statistically one of the best mid-range jump shooters in the league last season, had a .498 eFG%. Jason Kidd, a virtual statue on offense and a 36.5% fg shooter the past 3 seasons, had a higher eFG%. See how misleading that is?

Somebody could claim that Kidd's effective 3 point shooting was the reason. But was it... really? Or was it simply because he took a ton of 3 pointers? Because in reality, Kidd shot below the league average DESPITE taking wide open 3s almost exclusively for the past 3 seasons.

So, on closer inspection, it appears that Kidd's eFG% ascent has less to do with better shooting... and more to do with shooting the right kind of shot to bump that total... a higher volume of 3 pointers.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Nobody in modern NBA history has shot as poorly for as long as Rubio...

So, this thread is a good one.

Sebastian Telfair says hello!

To be fair, Telfair is a career 39.1% shooter. His worst season is still better than Rubio's best one so far.