Here is an insider article about the twolves in case some of you aren't insider subscribers. It's a pretty generous projection to be honest.
Overview
Next spring will mark a decade since the Minnesota Timberwolves last reached the postseason. While the Timberwolves aren't really associated with epic futility, their playoff drought is the longest active streak in the NBA and tied for fourth-longest in NBA history (naturally, the L.A. Clippers hold the record at 15 seasons between 1977 and 1991).
The last time Minnesota played a playoff game, Karl Malone and Latrell Sprewell started. George W. Bush was in the midst of campaigning for his second term in office. LeBron James was a rookie. The 2013 Timberwolves first-round pick, Shabazz Muhammad, was 10. (Wait, actually, 11.)
Minnesota believed last year's team could snap the streak, and so did projection systems. SCHOENE was incredibly bullish, pegging the Timberwolves for 55 wins and fourth place in the Western Conference. Even a more sober projection by John Hollinger in this space put Minnesota seventh in the West. After upgrading a team that was in the playoff mix before Ricky Rubio's season-ending ACL injury in 2010-11, the Timberwolves appeared ready to return to the postseason.
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Alas, injuries robbed them of that opportunity. Minnesota had a historically poor run of health, losing a combined 346 games and 8,901 minutes to injury. Four starters missed at least 18 games, including Rubio and All-Star forward Kevin Love, who was limited to just 18 games all season. Rubio and Love didn't start a single game together. With so much talent missing in action, the Timberwolves fell out of the playoff race by midseason.
The lost campaign cost president of basketball operations David Kahn his job after four turbulent seasons during which he managed to accumulate talent but also whiffed badly on multiple lottery picks and was more memorable for his outlandish public comments. To get Minnesota back to the playoffs, longtime owner Glen Taylor turned to the coach of the last Timberwolves team to reach the postseason -- Flip Saunders, who was hired as president of basketball operations.
With a foundation in place, Saunders made minor changes with the primary goal of improving the team's shooting after Minnesota ranked last in the NBA in 3-point percentage. The key newcomer is Kevin Martin, signed away from the Oklahoma City Thunder to play for coach Rick Adelman a third time (they previously were together in Sacramento and Houston). Martin and, when healthy, Chase Budinger -- who missed 59 games after knee surgery -- are both more dangerous 3-point threats than anyone in the Timberwolves' lineup most of last season.
Defense, a surprising strength of last season's squad, is now a concern with the departure of Andrei Kirilenko via free agency. But after re-signing center Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota again appears to have a lineup capable of emerging from a crowded pack of contenders for the last few spots in the West playoffs.
2012-13 RECAP
TimberwolvesDavid Sherman/NBAE/Getty ImagesBrandon Roy, Chase Budinger and Kevin Love spent much of 2012-13 just watching the Wolves go by.
The Timberwolves' season was doomed by injuries before it even began. Of course, Rubio's ACL injury dated back to March 2012 and kept him out until mid-December. During training camp, Love fractured the third and fourth metacarpal bones in his right hand, apparently while doing knuckle pushups. Without both players, Minnesota started a respectable 5-4 and stood 11-9 when Rubio returned to the lineup.
Injuries continued to mount. Brandon Roy's attempt to come back after a season in retirement lasted just five games before his troublesome left knee forced him to the sideline for good. Budinger was injured days later, forcing Adelman to move Luke Ridnour out of position to shooting guard.
Shortly after his return, Rubio missed five games around the New Year due to back spasms, and he wasn't entirely back to normal until February. By then, Love had already been lost for the season to a recurrence of the broken bones in his shooting hand, effectively dashing Minnesota's playoff hopes. Besides Love and Rubio, two other starters suffered multiple injuries. Kirilenko missed 18 games with a variety of ailments, and Pekovic sat out 20.
Even the Timberwolves' replacements suffered injuries. Josh Howard, signed off the street to fill in for Roy, Budinger and Malcolm Lee (season-ending knee and hip surgery) on the wing, ruptured his ACL and was waived shortly thereafter.
All told, Minnesota lost 346 games and nearly 9,000 minutes to injuries. Both marks rank second in my injury database, which covers the past four seasons, behind the 2009-10 Golden State Warriors. Those Warriors and last year's Timberwolves stand far apart from the pack in terms of minutes lost.
WOLVES' TIME LOST IN PERSPECTIVE
Team Year Games Lost Rank Minutes Lost Rank
Golden State 2009-10 395 1 9,969 1
Minnesota 2012-13 346 2 8,901 2
Portland 2009-10 311 3 6,558 3
New Jersey 2011-12 260 7 6,536 4
Washington 2009-10 256 8 6,404 5
Of the eight teams that lost the most minutes to injury in that span, only the 2009-10 Portland Trail Blazers reached the postseason, illustrating the difficulty of Minnesota's task. Despite the repeated setbacks, the Timberwolves never quit on the season. They went out on a modest positive note, going 5-5 in April. If that doesn't sound like much reason for optimism, keep in mind that Minnesota had won just one game in the month of April since 2009.
The healthy Timberwolves worked hard at the defensive end, accomplishing the franchise's first above-average ranking in defensive rating (14th) since 2005-06. Kirilenko made a major defensive impact, and Minnesota was actually one of the league's top 10 defenses over the first two months of the season before tailing off.
Without their stars, the Timberwolves simply couldn't score enough to make the defense hold up. Kirilenko and Pekovic were the lone regulars on the roster to post true shooting percentages better than league average. Minnesota relied heavily on long 2s (26.0 percent of the team's attempts came from 16 to 23 feet, eighth in the league per Hoopdata.com) not because of poor shot selection, but because players lacked 3-point range.
In a season in which the NBA set a new record for 3-pointers league-wide, the Timberwolves were conscientious objectors. They ranked 28th in makes and dead last in 3-point percentage (30.5 percent). Only the woeful 2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats (29.5 percent) kept Minnesota from finishing as the most inaccurate 3-point shooting team in the past decade. The Timberwolves were the lone NBA team without a single player who made at least 100 3-pointers, a mark cleared by four members of the Miami Heat and New York Knicks.
OFFSEASON MOVES
Kevin MartinDavid Sherman/NBAE/Getty ImagesKevin Martin should boost a Timberwolves' 3-point attack that was virtually non-existent last season.
After cutting loose Kahn by declining their option on the final season of his contract, the Timberwolves went looking for a replacement. They didn't need to go far. Saunders, a former University of Minnesota player and the most successful coach in franchise history, remains a local icon. Out of coaching since being fired by the Wizards early in 2011-12 (he spent last season working for ESPN), Saunders decided to move to the front office rather than return to the bench and also purchased a minority share in the team's ownership.
Saunders was originally the Timberwolves' general manager before taking over as head coach, but his last experience in an executive role came in an entirely different league before the luxury tax and the rise of analytics. How Saunders manages the team's payroll remains to be seen. He did quickly identify shooting as Minnesota's biggest weakness and moved boldly in free agency to rectify the issue.
PELTON'S 2012-13 STATS
W-L: 31-51(Pythagorean W-L: 33-49)
Offensive Efficiency: 104.3 (25th)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.2 (14th)
Pace Factor: 91.4 (11th)
Highest WARP: Andrei Kirilenko (6.8)
With Kirilenko opting out of the second year of his contract, the Timberwolves had enough cap space to go shopping for an offensive-minded replacement. Saunders signed shooting guard Kevin Martin away from the Oklahoma City Thunder with a four-year, $30 million offer. With apologies to Tony Campbell, J.R. Rider and Doug West, Martin might be the best scorer Minnesota has ever had at the position, which has been held down by a series of journeymen, busts and specialists over the past decade. He's also excelled in Adelman's motion offense in both Houston and Sacramento.
While the addition of Martin improves the Timberwolves, there are concerns. In the short term, Martin is a defensive downgrade. Adelman was reluctant to play him alongside Budinger when all three were together with the Rockets. Looking ahead, Martin will be 34 during the final season of the contract (2016-17), and though his shooting should hold up, it's tough to imagine him being worth $7.4 million at that point.
Minnesota acquired Martin in a sign-and-trade deal that sent his predecessor, Ridnour, to the Milwaukee Bucks to clear more room under the cap. Signed to provide veteran depth at point guard, Ridnour ended up spending nearly all of his two seasons with the Timberwolves playing off the ball and was expendable with the team beefing up on the wing.
Saunders put the space to use, signing a pair of wings. Budinger's first year in Minnesota was ruined by arthroscopic surgery to repair his meniscus. He'll have more time to contribute after cashing in on the hot market for shooters with a new three-year, $15 million contract. Adelman will also have Corey Brewer as a better defensive option at small forward after the former Timberwolves lottery pick returned from the Denver Nuggets on a three-year, $14.1 million deal. When Budinger reinjured his knee just before training camp and underwent surgery that should keep him out for the start of the regular season, it opened the door for Brewer to start.
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Initially, Minnesota's biggest worry was Pekovic's restricted free agency. As a skilled post scorer, he emerged as one of the top players on the market. Yet the Timberwolves' ability to match any offer scared off suitors, who spent their cap space elsewhere. Pekovic still was able to use the threat of taking the one-year qualifying offer as leverage to sign a long-term contract. Negotiations slowly dragged on until mid-August, when the two sides agreed on a five-year deal worth $60 million with incentives that could increase the value to $68 million.
As with Martin, the length of Pekovic's contract could be a larger issue than the yearly salary. Before the summer, Pekovic was expected to get an offer around $12 million a year, and Minnesota is safely below the luxury-tax threshold. But Pekovic is already 27 and is getting paid prime money for a contract that will take him through the downside of his career.
The Timberwolves also have to manage their salary cap for the long term. Between Pekovic and Martin, they're committed to $19 million in 2015-16. Brewer and Budinger could add another $9.9 million to that total, bringing Minnesota to nearly $29 million before dealing with Love (who can opt out of his final season, which would pay him $16.7 million) or an extension for Rubio, who will be eligible to sign one next summer. The Timberwolves could find themselves bumping up against the tax.
Minnesota hopes to avoid one obvious solution to the problem -- trading Love. His name was prominent in rumors this spring before Saunders made it clear he has no plans to trade the team's star. Still, the clock is ticking on Love's extension. He can be a free agent in the summer of 2015, and his displeasure with the constant losing is no secret. Minnesota has to show the potential to contend by the time Love reaches free agency to avoid his heading elsewhere.
The Timberwolves hope they have the depth to turn things around. With holdovers J.J. Barea, Alexey Shved, Dante Cunningham and former No. 2 overall pick Derrick Williams filling out the bench, and the addition of Ronny Turiaf as a backup center, their rotation can go 11 deep when healthy, mitigating the impact of Budinger's injury. The ability to fill holes in free agency convinced Saunders to trade down from the No. 9 pick in the draft. Minnesota got the 14th and 21st picks from the Utah Jazz and used them on UCLA wing Shabazz Muhammad and Louisville center Gorgui Dieng, neither of whom are likely to see much playing time as rookies.
2013-14 OUTLOOK
Ricky RubioJeff Hanisch/USA TODAY SportsIf Ricky Rubio takes another step forward, Minnesota's frequently hobbled fortunes should rise.
Another year, another optimistic SCHOENE projection for the Timberwolves, who are slotted fifth in the West -- ahead of the Memphis Grizzlies and the Golden State Warriors. This year's projection is different than last year's misguided pick, however.
It's easy in retrospect to understand where SCHOENE went wrong: the injuries, of course, and a projection for Shved that had him as one of the league's best reserves as a rookie. Shved's projection was based on a single Euroleague season, during which he shot 49.3 percent from 3-point range. Predictably, Shved regressed in the NBA. Adding a factor regressing small samples to the mean improved the accuracy of projections for players like Shved, and using this updated model plus Minnesota's actual minutes played last season gives an estimate of 32 wins, not far off the team's actual total of 31.
The baseline for projecting the Timberwolves this season isn't 31 wins. It's what the team would have accomplished given reasonable health. SCHOENE says this was something like a 44-win team. Based on player performance when healthy, Minnesota lost nearly nine more wins to injury than the average team, and that probably understates the case because Love's production was down when he was on the court.
PELTON'S 2013-14 PROJECTIONS
Projected Offensive Rating: 110.9 (9th)
Projected Defensive Rating: 106.8 (6th)
Effective (weighted) age: 26.7 (16th)
Simply by bringing the same team back, the Timberwolves figured to jump into playoff contention simply by virtue of staying healthy. Has Minnesota improved on that baseline? SCHOENE says yes because of improved shooting and the development of Rubio, who could be in for a breakthrough campaign now that he's past his ACL injury.
With Martin, a healthy recovery by Budinger and Love's return, the Timberwolves figure to go from the worst shooting team in the league to an average one. All three players are projected to make more than 100 3-pointers, pushing Minnesota from 28th in makes all the way to eighth. (The Timberwolves' 3-point accuracy still lags slightly below average.) That kind of improvement would fuel one of the league's better offenses.
SCHOENE is probably too confident in the Timberwolves' defense, which is projected in the top 10. The downgrade on the wing from Kirilenko to Martin is difficult to overstate, and Adelman will do well to have this defense playing at an average level again. Realistically, Minnesota is looking at a win total in the mid- to high 40s. That should be more than enough for a return to the playoffs, and might just make the Timberwolves the surprise threat to the West's five championship contenders.
SCHOENE Projection: 51-31, 2nd in Northwest, 5th in Western Conf.
NBA INSIDER TEAM FORECAST SCHEDULE
Note: Schedule is based on SCHOENE's projected conference standings in 2013-14.
Date East West
October 7: 1. Miami Heat 1. San Antonio Spurs
October 8: 2. Chicago Bulls 2. Los Angeles Clippers
October 9: 3. Brooklyn Nets 3. Houston Rockets
October 10: 4. Indiana Pacers 4. Oklahoma City Thunder
October 11: 5. Detroit Pistons 5. Minnesota Timberwolves
October 14: East No. 6 West No. 6
October 15: East No. 7 West No. 7
October 16: East No. 8 West No. 8
October 17: East No. 9 West No. 9
October 18: East No. 10 West No. 10
October 21: East No. 11 West No. 11
October 22: East No. 12 West No. 12
October 23: East No. 13 West No. 13
October 24: East No. 14 West No. 14
October 25: East No. 15 West No. 15
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Thanks for this article. Great read.