Rubio --- The Driver to Love's 3rd Contract

[chalk_ [enjin:6694543]]

In looking back through recent history (since 1995), the following - notable, productive, high dollar - players agreed to sign a rookie extension with their original franchises. With regards to their next contract, the outcomes of whether or not they re-upped with that same franchise for a 3rd time are listed below.

Either via extension or free agency, these players did sign a 3rd contract with their original teams:

Kevin Garnett
Tim Duncan
Allen Iverson
Kobe Bryant
Dirk Nowitzki
Paul Pierce
Dwyane Wade

Since the 1999 draft, Wade is the only notable player to sign a 3rd contract with his original team.

Kevin Garnett is the only player to sign such a contract with his original team before advancing to at least the second round of the playoffs (though, he didn't sign his extension until after the high profile additions of Cassell/Sprewell).

Duncan, Kobe had won multiple championships by the time of their 3rd contract (both were free agents, ultimately re-signed). Dirk, Iverson had recently advanced to the NBA finals before signing extensions.

I find it interesting that very few of these players had "partner in crimes" at the time of signing their extensions or re-upping through free agency, with the exception of Dwyane Wade (LeBron/Bosh), and Duncan (young Parker/Ginobili, after coming off of another Finals victory).


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Either via free agency or trade, these players did not sign a 3rd contract with their original teams:

Vince Carter
Pau Gasol
LeBron James
Chris Bosh
Amare Stoudemire
Carmelo Anthony
Deron Williams
Chris Paul
Dwight Howard

It should be noted that none of these players had much of a "partner in crime" on their current teams to look forward to playing with throughout the prime of their careers, and most if not all were playing for small/medium/fly-over markets.

From my perspective, it was reasonable for every single one of these players to want to move on.


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So, where does that leave Kevin Love and the Minnesota Timberwolves when it comes to agreeing on a 3rd contract? What do the Wolves have on their roster that all of those other teams didn't when their star players bolted?

The head coach come 2015, the relationship with Flip Saunders, the surrounding complimentary players all play a key role in Love's decision; ultimately, though, there is one driver that stands out above all else.

Meet: Ricky Rubio.

Potentially, outside of Wade with LeBron, the best partner in crime that any of these guys had come re-up.

At this point, the odds of Love re-signing with the Wolves two years from now are hinged directly to Ricky Rubio's development.

Will he prove to only show minimal improvement?
Or will he take his game to the next level (i.e. scoring efficiency/output, to state the obvious flaw)?

If Rubio doesn't add much to his game over the course of these next couple seasons, that means all Love has here is a bunch of solid pieces surrounding him, and without a true, productive star to play alongside with in Minnesota, the chances he re-ups would be slim. Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Martin, etc. are well above average players, a slightly improved but non-elite version of Rubio is still great all things considered, but it wouldn't be enough to contend.

Even if Flip continues to round out the roster with high level, complimentary parts over the next few years (which I believe will be the case), without a proven, true secondary star, why would Love stay in Minnesota?

But if Rubio can develop into a consensus, upper-echelon PG, with an improved jump shot/scoring output - along with everything else he brings to the basketball court - Love would then have a legitimate partner in crime to do work with throughout the prime of his career; depending on the coaching situation at the time, Love would be hard pressed to walk away from that situation, along with the extra $$$.

Overall, I like our chances. Of course, my opinion hinges entirely on Rubio's trajectory into becoming an all-star, elite level point guard. If he doesn't prove to be that type of player, the situation with Love could get grim.

Ultimately, Rubio holds the keys to this franchise, especially with regards to Love's decision.

No pressure, Ricky.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Great write-up Chalk. I agree that Rubio holds the key, as I don't see another player on our roster whose ceiling matches the "partner in crime" yardstick. As you said, Pek and Martin are above average players, but both have hit their ceilings and are flawed defensively.

One thing I wouldn't count on is Rubio becoming a Chris Paul/Derrick Rose/Russell Westbrook type of scorer. Ain't going to happen. However, he is already a top 5 PG in the areas of rebounding, assists, and steals. Those things matter. What he has to do better is improve his scoring efficiency. He doesn't even need to become a great scorer. He just needs to be more efficient. That's not going to be easy, but I think his best route to success is improving his 3-point stroke. That has proven to be one of the most pliable areas for players to improve upon. That won't mean it will happen, but the odds are better that he improves his 3-pt shot than his floater, pull up jumper, or other shots taken while on the move.

One word of caution here is on Kevin Love himself. He may have already had his best seasons (I would argue the season before 2011-12 was just as good). Between the injuries, the rule changes (harder for him to lean into fouls and get the call), and the never ending influx of athletic big men that are able to guard both the perimeter and the interior, it's not a sure thing that he is even our best player in a couple of years.

[Papalrep]

One word of caution here is on Kevin Love himself. He may have already had his best seasons (I would argue the season before 2011-12 was just as good). Between the injuries, the rule changes (harder for him to lean into fouls and get the call), and the never ending influx of athletic big men that are able to guard both the perimeter and the interior, it's not a sure thing that he is even our best player in a couple of years.

Wow--good point. Pek, Love and Martin are all really good, glad they are here. NONE of them are great.

[chalk_ [enjin:6694543]]

q, thanks.

I agree that Love has already had his best season statistically. At this point, it's going to take some serious improvement to advance on his 2011/12 production, considering the options now surrounding him

I would argue though that the rule changes did not hurt him much - they were in for effect come 11/2012.

[Coolbreeze44]

Good analysis Chalk. I would remind that contracts have to be a lot shorter with the new CBA than under previous versions. The thing with Kevin is he's already on to the 3rd stage of his career at a very young age. First stage, he put up the numbers to earn the big contract. Second stage, he received the big contract. And now the only thing left is to win. You are right that much of that hinges on the development of Rubio. I believe Ricky is going to become much better at finishing around the basket. I don't know if he will ever be a consistent jump shooter, but I do expect him to use his great creativity to get the ball in the hole. But at the end of the day Love will stay in Minnesota if he can win. And not just make the playoffs, it will need to be a situation where we can contend for a title. I'm not sure if that's possible with the roster as constructed, but it's going to be fun watching it take shape.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

So did someone say Kevin Love is good not great? I don't agree with that at all. He's a top-6 or 7 player in the NBA when healthy. No doubt about it. There is NOTHING in the NBA like him. Not even close. There isn't another big that can stroke the deep ball like him or rebound like him. Sorry to go into this, but reading that rubbed me the wrong way.

I agree that Rubio is the main factor in re-signing Love. I also think Pek has a good argument in this as well, being that he takes up so much space in the paint allowing Love to go against his own man instead of multiple people being able to put their body on Love. All the little things help. But yes, it's Rubio. Rubio's a main reason why Kevin Martin even signed here. Adelman and Love had their cases, but Martin said he's always wanted to play with Ricky even back in Sacramento. Could he have been embellishing a bit? Maybe, but his original story is very easy to believe.

I think Love re-signs and it's for all the reasons discussed. I think Rubio takes a big leap this year matter a fact. There's a chance to win here in Minnesota and I truly believe that. I think it has to do more with Ricky than Love, but they're both immensely important. We need Love to get to the playoffs. No doubt about it. I think Ricky is the guy that would shine in the post-season though. He's a winner and you can see that on the court practically every game. We have something special in Kevin and Ricky. I think they both realize it. Hopefully it translates into good playoff runs soon.

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

He was a top ten player on scoring and rebounding stats before last year, no question. But if you factor in his poor defense, I don't think he's one of the top ten players at least in his contribution to team victories. And that was before last season.

I won't assume that Love can stay healthy and play as well as he did two years ago. Too many big men who suffer injuries tend to be plagued by injuries for much of their career.

[KGdaBom [enjin:6632523]]

Love put up a ridiculous combination of points, rebounds and threes in the 2011-2012 season. After breaking his hand last year he couldn't shoot to save his life or the wolves. Will he ever get the three point stroke back? I hope so.

[Monster]

I wasn't sure about the title of the thread but yeah you make a great point about Rubio being the guy. He is going to likely be the reason guys want to player here in the future not just Love. Secondary to Ricky being a good player which I have a lot of faith in is the supporting cast. Does Pek stay healthy can the Wolves find a young guy out of the talent they have that steps up in a significant role? Can Martin stay healthy and be the vet SG to be next to ricky that he had when he played next to Navarro overseas? :) there are lots of question marks on those guys but at least a couple of them have actually proven very effective in the league already not just potential. Also can flip and the organization get the smaller pieces to fit in to make a contender. Will a guy like Brewer or Dieng be really good cogs in rotation minute players. will they get the right 12th men? that's going to matter to be a contender and matter when Love makes up his mind whether the Wolves have a legit shot at a title.

[Monster]

Also I think its fair to say Love isn't great. He might be but I think a better term for now would be very very good player. Great is for those guys that take their team somewhere Love hasn't done that yet and like Flip said that's not all on him. People tend to dog on the guy and so I can see why someone gets ruffled when someone says he isn't great. I'm one of the biggest Love fans out there but I don't think he has quite got there yet he needs to produce at a high level a couple more years and win.

People say his defense isn't that great well neither is a lot of the other scoring PFs in the game and few of them rebound as well as he does. Last year was lost to injury so its the first year he didn't improve his game over the previous year. Its going to be interesting to see this team this year. Don't forget how well Love gets his shots within an offense and then gets buckets on junk plays too. In some ways he isn't really a high usuage player. He really is one of the most unique players I've ever seen play the game. I think people forget how good and efficient of a scorer he is. With help on that end he will be even more deadly I bet his FG percentage goes up this year.